Jays and Rays discussing a trade involving Encarnacion and Price??

[GD]

Hoping AA lands Garza for 5 65,

 

4/52 would probably be better but I like that AAV for Garza

[Holden Caulfield]

No it doesn't. It tells you which General Managers make poor decisions.

 

But what does it ultimately change?

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

Someone please fire this moron GM before he trades half our team away to the freaking Rays!

[fatcowxlive]

I just called him smart in the other thread for trying to deal Santos for Anderson

 

I take that back completely... what the f***.

[jaysblue]

The Jays seriously are just better signing Garza or Tanaka rather than trade EE for David Price. Sure the Jays would add an ace, though then they lose a huge bat in EE. Price is likely going to get a lot through ARB so why not just sign a pitcher like Garza for similar AAV or slightly more and the Jays get to keep EE. That's more rational than trading EE for Price.

[fatcowxlive]

What Rogers should do is buy the Rays and send the Jays over to Tampa. Lol

 

I wish the Rays somehow get disbanded and we can get Friedman

[SAAviour]

Why are u all cursing on AA for a hypothetical rumoured trade that hasn't and won't happen. Shouldn't we be happy with him that he didn't trade EE straight up for Price?

 

I think a lot of you are gonna be back on AA's balls by this time next month.

[admin]

I think a lot of you are gonna be back on AA's balls by this time next month.

 

We all hope we are.

[fatcowxlive]

Why are u all cursing on AA for a hypothetical rumoured trade that hasn't and won't happen. Shouldn't we be happy with him that he didn't trade EE straight up for Price?

 

I think a lot of you are gonna be back on AA's balls by this time next month.

 

Is that a bad thing? Are we supposed to hate the GM or something?

[ElNik2013]

Why are u all cursing on AA for a hypothetical rumoured trade that hasn't and won't happen. Shouldn't we be happy with him that he didn't trade EE straight up for Price?

 

I think a lot of you are gonna be back on AA's balls by this time next month.

 

 

It should be quite understandable to anyone that people would cringe when hearing of a rumoured trade such as this one given the trades AA has made over the past 16 months or so.

[ace3113]

Okay seriously

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snMaw3giC9Q

[SAAviour]

I see what your saying bts, but I'm not going to curse the guy tell it happens.

[labadee]

Ew to both.

Agreed

[Olerud363]

Well, that should be that for this thread.

 

I am certainly not questioning your conclusion... but I am questioning the confidence you have in the conclusion.

 

This topic is getting the same feedback as the "J.P. Arencibia for DH" got. If the peanut gallery gives every topic they don't agree with the same treatment (yer dumb... shut it down... what the hell is wrong with you) then it becomes hard to separate the truly stupid ideas (J.P. Arencibia for DH) from debatable ideas.

 

The premise that EE is as valuable as Price and LoMo (thus when factoring in contract status he becomes way more valuable) relies on a few things...

 

1. That Price isn't quite as good as he appears because of Pitch Framing (Molina is helping him).

2. LoMo's defense is ridiculously awful (-2 WAR by some measurements) and wouldn't improve as a full time 1b .

3. We understand why players like EE and Bautista all of a sudden get better near 30 and we can predict their 30s with confidence.

 

People are also assuming that the series of deals would be EE straight up for Price, and something else for LoMo... there are no other parts to this.

 

Again I am not saying you are wrong... I am saying I personally don't understand points 1 to 3 well enough to confidently state that EE is a 4 WAR player, and Price is a 4 WAR player going forward and LoMo is 0. If there are things in the data we don't understand, it could be that EE is 3.5, LoMo is 2 and Price is 5... It could also be that EE is 4 going forward, LoMo is 0 and Price is 2.5 (assuming some very negative injury model for Price).

 

I do appreciate a link to a blog describing the problem in more detail. Much better then "what the hell is wrong with you".

[G-Snarls]

I see what your saying bts, but I'm not going to curse the guy tell it happens.

 

Agree

 

My wife is like that - complains about things that might happen when they haven't. Jeez, save it for stuff that has actually happened.

Edited December 10, 2013 by G-Snarls

[John_Havok]

Njh is a really good writer. Love your articles

 

#1FanBoy

 

Taglines for days!

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

Why are u all cursing on AA for a hypothetical rumoured trade that hasn't and won't happen. Shouldn't we be happy with him that he didn't trade EE straight up for Price?

 

I think a lot of you are gonna be back on AA's balls by this time next month.

Have you not paid attention to his recent track record? I don't trust him with any trades anymore after how he got bent over by the Marlins and Mets.

[G-Snarls]

Have you not paid attention to his recent track record? I don't trust him with any trades anymore after how he got bent over by the Marlins and Mets.

 

AFAIC he got bent over by the Mets, but the Marlins trade mostly went bad due to incredibly poor luck

[xposbrad]

AFAIC he got bent over by the Mets, but the Marlins trade mostly went bad due to incredibly poor luck

 

I read somewhere on these boards that AA was quoted as saying that the deal was pending Bonifacio being included. If that's the case, then he's still out of his mind.

[Nox]

AFAIC he got bent over by the Mets, but the Marlins trade mostly went bad due to incredibly poor luck

 

No way.

[KingKat]

I read somewhere on these boards that AA was quoted as saying that the deal was pending Bonifacio being included. If that's the case, then he's still out of his mind.

 

AA insisted on Bonifacio. The Marlins insisted on Mathis. Both players held up the deal for awhile. Pretty ridiculous on both sides.

[TwistedLogic]

I read somewhere on these boards that AA was quoted as saying that the deal was pending Bonifacio being included. If that's the case, then he's still out of his mind.

 

No, he's not out of his mind. Yeah it sounds stupid that a role-player kind of guy like Bonifacio was held in such regard in a trade that involved Johnson, Reyes and Buehrle, but that's only if you choose to use your narrow-minded hindsight. Except hindsight tells us a lot more than just the fact that Bonifacio sucked for the Jays in 2013.

 

AA was not only losing Escobar, he was losing Hechavarria as well, a guy that he expected would have at least been good enough for a utility role in the near future. Bonifacio had just come off two years where he posted 2.8 WAR in one, and stole 30 bases in 60 games in the other. That is a valuable asset. The fact that Bonifacio came here and played like a f***ing mudkip doesn't mean that AA had a bad valuation on him, especially because when he went to the Royals, he immediately became that same significantly valuable player that he had been in Florida.

 

There are a lot of reasons to be upset with AA, but this is one of many that are completely stupid and overblown. You guys are crucifying him for having given too much in that trade as it is, had he accepted the trade without Bonifacio, it would have just looked even worse, which would only make you guys bitch about it more.

 

The Marlins trade was a good one. It was the Dickey trade that was f***ing dumb.

[ElNik2013]

No, he's not out of his mind. Yeah it sounds stupid that a role-player kind of guy like Bonifacio was held in such regard in a trade that involved Johnson, Reyes and Buehrle, but that's only if you choose to use your narrow-minded hindsight. Except hindsight tells us a lot more than just the fact that Bonifacio sucked for the Jays in 2013.

 

AA was not only losing Escobar, he was losing Hechavarria as well, a guy that he expected would have at least been good enough for a utility role in the near future. Bonifacio had just come off two years where he posted 2.8 WAR in one, and stole 30 bases in 60 games in the other. That is a valuable asset. The fact that Bonifacio came here and played like a f***ing mudkip doesn't mean that AA had a bad valuation on him, especially because when he went to the Royals, he immediately became that same significantly valuable player that he had been in Florida.

 

There are a lot of reasons to be upset with AA, but this is one of many that are completely stupid and overblown. You guys are crucifying him for having given too much in that trade as it is, had he accepted the trade without Bonifacio, it would have just looked even worse, which would only make you guys bitch about it more.

 

The Marlins trade was a good one. It was the Dickey trade that was f***ing dumb.

 

 

 

Well said bro. There are posters here who loved Gose last year and now say he's s***, just as an example. Plenty of people were ok with the Marlins trade even if it wasn't efficient because in it the team got 2 starters and Reyes and it also sped up the rebuilding process without crippling the farm. The Dickey trade is just on a whole other level.

Someone recently posted the link to the Marlins trade from the MLB board and anyone can read it. To be fair, I've also been irrational with my criticism, it certainly is frustrating.

[KingKat]

There are a lot of reasons to be upset with AA, but this is one of many that are completely stupid and overblown. You guys are crucifying him for having given too much in that trade as it is, had he accepted the trade without Bonifacio, it would have just looked even worse, which would only make you guys bitch about it more.

 

 

Dude, your efforts to plays devil's advocate are practically honorable but you are out to lunch. Plenty of us hated Bonifacio before he even played a game for the Jays (off the top of my head Nox, Hurl and myself). He was a garbage defender with one completely BABIP inflated outlier of a season on his resume. No one knew he would look as awful as he did but anyone who could read a Fangraphs page knew he wasn't an assett.

[TheHurl]

At the time of the trade I calculated about $100M (others, who are better with numbers than me, calcuated about $40M) in negative value in the Marlins trade...it might be worse now.

[TheHurl]

No one knew he would look as awful as he did but anyone who could read a Fangraphs page knew he wasn't an assett.

 

I don't know that is true. You are correct in saying that a few of us really disliked him but several people (in and outside of this forum) who I consider to be really smart baseball people really liked him by looking at the numbers. My issues were partly how he got the numbers (the bunt singles and the downward swing). And as you said he was worse than even his biggest detractors thought.

[TwistedLogic]

Dude, your efforts to plays devil's advocate are practically honorable but you are out to lunch. Plenty of us hated Bonifacio before he even played a game for the Jays (off the top of my head Nox, Hurl and myself). He was a garbage defender with one completely BABIP inflated outlier of a season on his resume. No one knew he would look as awful as he did but anyone who could read a Fangraphs page knew he wasn't an assett.

 

It's not my fault that you misinterpreted my post. I never implied anyone had an opinion one way or another about Bonifacio. I stated simply that without him, it would have been one fewer asset that the Jays acquired, and that would make the trade look even worse than it did.

 

Your post also makes absolutely no sense in the context of the trade. You say that you "hated Bonifacio" and give his BABIP-inflated outlier of a season as a reason. He wasn't acquired for his BABIP-inflated season because he wasn't acquired for his bat. Anthopoulos wanted him to serve as a backup utility player with excellent speed and a decent career OBP. This would have given him a fallback option in case Izturis didn't work, it would have given him a guy he could have preferred over Rajai Davis in the event that Davis walked, and it would have made Anthony Gose just a wee bit more expendable. That was the reason he wanted him. It's irrelevant whether you liked him or hated him because he was brought him as a utility player.

 

If Izturis wasn't one of the worst f***ing players in the Major Leagues, Bonifacio's inadequacy in filling in for him would have been far less magnified.

[KingKat]

 

If Izturis wasn't one of the worst f***ing players in the Major Leagues, Bonifacio's inadequacy in filling in for him would have been far less magnified.

 

I do agree with this sentence but if AA thought he had defensive value, there was a serious misjudging of Bonifacio's skill set. There isn't anything that Bonifacio does that Rajai Davis doesn't do better (unless you count playing terrible 2B). No one could have predicted just how badly swapping out a better defender like Aviles for Bonifacio would have backfired but it's really hard to argue it was a good idea. AA seems to have a strange infatuation with certain rather fringy players (Happ, Bonifacio, Rogers) which can't help but make you question his player valuations. I don't know if you've read Great Expectations but in it, Lott and Davidi describe conversations between Beeston and Anthopoulos where they discussed how important it was to acquire Bonifacio because he's such an exciting, entertaining player. That's not the kind of cold rational that you have been giving for the Bonifacio acquisition. Now of course, Lott and Davidi weren't actually there so maybe the conversation that actually took place and the one the principals described to them aren't the same but it certainly gives you pause. You can always give AA the benefit of the doubt but don't you feel like you have to do that a lot? There is zero indication in Great Expectations that Escobar played an important role in negotiations but there's clear indication that both Mathis and Bonifacio did. If you don't find that alarming then I guess you're just a far different Jays fan than I.

[G-Snarls]

At the time of the trade I calculated about $100M (others, who are better with numbers than me, calcuated about $40M) in negative value in the Marlins trade...it might be worse now.

 

It certainly is. But I stand by liking the trade, as embarrassing to say as that might be now. It instantly made the ML team better by any reasonable projection. But Bonifacio and Johnson were such unmitigated disasters it didn't work out. At all. No one would have ever figured those two would be that bad. Hence my original comment that the Marlins trade was victimized by bad "luck". You can counter that by saying Boni had bad peripherals and Johnson an injury history and that's fair. But wow bad luck all around too.

[G-Snarls]

I know it's popular to hate on AA these days, but I really only think the Dickey trade was an awful idea. Particularly in light of JPA's obvious failures and lack of judgement in trading away D'Arnaud.

 

Marlins trade

Rasmus trade

Delabar trade

Recent Phillies trade for Kratz

Even Snider

 

All OK moves by me.

 

And his lack of signing a good FA pitcher like Annibal Sanchez I cut him slack because we know he tried. But it still stinks because had we landed Darvish or Sanchez he would not have made the Dickey trade. Tired of lamenting that but there it is.