Breaking Blue: Toronto Blue Jays Blog is live

[NorthOf49]

JFaS, do you have a link to download game data (stuff like seasonal stats)? I used to use Baseball Databank but it seems they stopped updating in 2011.

[Abomination]

JFaS, do you have a link to download game data (stuff like seasonal stats)? I used to use Baseball Databank but it seems they stopped updating in 2011.

 

You can download it off fangraphs. Other sites: baseballsavant and retrosheet

[Nox]

lol Goins

 

< 0 is bad right?

[Nox]

That's an ugly Melky projection.

 

I liked the signing too.

[Nox]

Maybe you can intuition it will be a little better without the tumor?

 

Lol I think that's probably fair.

[TwistedLogic]

Maybe you can intuition it will be a little better without the tumor?

 

I have a feeling Melky is going to bounce back next year for 2+ wins.

 

I think Rasmus is going to be 3+ wins again as well.

[Abomination]

Maybe you can intuition it will be a little better without the tumor?

 

I have Melky at

 

[TABLE=class: cms_table]

[TR]

[TD]Name[/TD]

[TD] PA[/TD]

[TD] HR[/TD]

[TD] R[/TD]

[TD] RBI[/TD]

[TD] SB[/TD]

[TD] AVG[/TD]

[TD] OBP[/TD]

[TD] SLG

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Melky Cabrera

[/TD]

[TD] 561

[/TD]

[TD] 12

[/TD]

[TD] 76

[/TD]

[TD] 61

[/TD]

[TD] 12

[/TD]

[TD] 0.298

[/TD]

[TD] 0.346

[/TD]

[TD] 0.444

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[fireballW]

Great work JFaS!

[GD]

I guess you're kind of okay at this.

[LunchBox]

Ways to better the team (by the projections):

 

Use Kratz as platoon for Lind instead of Sierra and put Kratz at C and Navarro at DH.

Play Kawasaki full time at 2nd.

 

Is Lawrie the 3rd catcher? I like the idea but wouldn't want to carry both Kratz and Thole.

[LunchBox]

If Kratz was hurt in game and Navarro had to move from DH to play the field, doesn't that forfeit the DH spot?

[DuckDuckGose]

Ryan Goins could take reps at C, just saying.

[Abomination]

Bloody hell. Working on an Excel program to automatically work with and easily reference all fangraphs stats from their export data feature. They use the same column headers FB% for fly ball percentage and fastball percentage... Guess I should be calculating a good portion of the stats rather than straight importing them.

[GD]

Fangraphs can be a bit of the pain in the ass for data for me too, yah.

[Jimcanuck]

Projected WAR for Lawrie looks low? I see that combination of offense and defense at closer to 4, not 2.6.

[ace3113]

Part II of my article on International Free Agents gives you 16 more names to know for this coming July 2nd.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/02/06/2014-international-free-agents-part-ii/

 

Part I is located here, and contains my top 10, for those who missed it the first time.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/01/29/2014-international-free-agents-part-i/

 

Many gracias to my Dominican hermano Angrioter for his help in assembling these two articles. Couldn't have done it without you. Cheers.

[Laika]

such a nerd

 

hire me when you're a baseball executive, plz

 

I'd prefer one of those roles where I just kind of hang around at the stadium/office and "advise" / binge on coffee and gain weight slowly.

[KingKat]

I'm confused by this. So basically this whole chart is projections you've come up with using some secret sauce of yours?

 

Different projection system that only uses MLB data: wRD+ is weighted Run Differential which is similar to wRC+ but includes defence, running, and positional adjustment. Win% is the teams theoretical Win% if they played every position on the field.

 

[TABLE]

[TR]

[TD] Name [/TD]

[TD] PA [/TD]

[TD] HR [/TD]

[TD] R [/TD]

[TD] RBI [/TD]

[TD] SB [/TD]

[TD] AVG [/TD]

[TD] OBP [/TD]

[TD] SLG [/TD]

[TD] ISO [/TD]

[TD] OPS [/TD]

[TD] wOBA [/TD]

[TD] wRC+ [/TD]

[TD] wRD+ [/TD]

[TD] Win% [/TD]

[TD] WAR [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Jose Bautista [/TD]

[TD] 574 [/TD]

[TD] 34 [/TD]

[TD] 83 [/TD]

[TD] 91 [/TD]

[TD] 6 [/TD]

[TD] 0.259 [/TD]

[TD] 0.373 [/TD]

[TD] 0.520 [/TD]

[TD] 0.262 [/TD]

[TD] 0.893 [/TD]

[TD] 0.389 [/TD]

[TD] 144 [/TD]

[TD] 138 [/TD]

[TD] 0.656 [/TD]

[TD] 4.6 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Jose Reyes [/TD]

[TD] 588 [/TD]

[TD] 12 [/TD]

[TD] 79 [/TD]

[TD] 59 [/TD]

[TD] 29 [/TD]

[TD] 0.291 [/TD]

[TD] 0.349 [/TD]

[TD] 0.446 [/TD]

[TD] 0.155 [/TD]

[TD] 0.795 [/TD]

[TD] 0.349 [/TD]

[TD] 120 [/TD]

[TD] 130 [/TD]

[TD] 0.629 [/TD]

[TD] 4.2 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Edwin Encarnacion [/TD]

[TD] 644 [/TD]

[TD] 35 [/TD]

[TD] 91 [/TD]

[TD] 101 [/TD]

[TD] 8 [/TD]

[TD] 0.272 [/TD]

[TD] 0.360 [/TD]

[TD] 0.515 [/TD]

[TD] 0.243 [/TD]

[TD] 0.875 [/TD]

[TD] 0.381 [/TD]

[TD] 139 [/TD]

[TD] 119 [/TD]

[TD] 0.586 [/TD]

[TD] 3.7 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Colby Rasmus [/TD]

[TD] 530 [/TD]

[TD] 22 [/TD]

[TD] 67 [/TD]

[TD] 69 [/TD]

[TD] 3 [/TD]

[TD] 0.244 [/TD]

[TD] 0.311 [/TD]

[TD] 0.448 [/TD]

[TD] 0.204 [/TD]

[TD] 0.759 [/TD]

[TD] 0.332 [/TD]

[TD] 105 [/TD]

[TD] 116 [/TD]

[TD] 0.572 [/TD]

[TD] 2.8 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Brett Lawrie [/TD]

[TD] 570 [/TD]

[TD] 15 [/TD]

[TD] 66 [/TD]

[TD] 61 [/TD]

[TD] 10 [/TD]

[TD] 0.259 [/TD]

[TD] 0.311 [/TD]

[TD] 0.409 [/TD]

[TD] 0.150 [/TD]

[TD] 0.719 [/TD]

[TD] 0.317 [/TD]

[TD] 96 [/TD]

[TD] 102 [/TD]

[TD] 0.510 [/TD]

[TD] 2.6 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Dioner Navarro [/TD]

[TD] 367 [/TD]

[TD] 12 [/TD]

[TD] 39 [/TD]

[TD] 45 [/TD]

[TD] 1 [/TD]

[TD] 0.267 [/TD]

[TD] 0.325 [/TD]

[TD] 0.427 [/TD]

[TD] 0.160 [/TD]

[TD] 0.752 [/TD]

[TD] 0.331 [/TD]

[TD] 107 [/TD]

[TD] 114 [/TD]

[TD] 0.564 [/TD]

[TD] 1.9 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Melky Cabrera [/TD]

[TD] 539 [/TD]

[TD] 11 [/TD]

[TD] 64 [/TD]

[TD] 56 [/TD]

[TD] 9 [/TD]

[TD] 0.287 [/TD]

[TD] 0.336 [/TD]

[TD] 0.427 [/TD]

[TD] 0.140 [/TD]

[TD] 0.762 [/TD]

[TD] 0.335 [/TD]

[TD] 110 [/TD]

[TD] 97 [/TD]

[TD] 0.486 [/TD]

[TD] 1.7 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Adam Lind [/TD]

[TD] 587 [/TD]

[TD] 24 [/TD]

[TD] 69 [/TD]

[TD] 81 [/TD]

[TD] 1 [/TD]

[TD] 0.269 [/TD]

[TD] 0.330 [/TD]

[TD] 0.463 [/TD]

[TD] 0.194 [/TD]

[TD] 0.794 [/TD]

[TD] 0.347 [/TD]

[TD] 117 [/TD]

[TD] 89 [/TD]

[TD] 0.444 [/TD]

[TD] 1.4 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Erik Kratz [/TD]

[TD] 298 [/TD]

[TD] 11 [/TD]

[TD] 33 [/TD]

[TD] 37 [/TD]

[TD] 0 [/TD]

[TD] 0.232 [/TD]

[TD] 0.293 [/TD]

[TD] 0.404 [/TD]

[TD] 0.172 [/TD]

[TD] 0.697 [/TD]

[TD] 0.307 [/TD]

[TD] 84 [/TD]

[TD] 103 [/TD]

[TD] 0.515 [/TD]

[TD] 1.1 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Maicer Izturis [/TD]

[TD] 378 [/TD]

[TD] 5 [/TD]

[TD] 41 [/TD]

[TD] 35 [/TD]

[TD] 6 [/TD]

[TD] 0.266 [/TD]

[TD] 0.323 [/TD]

[TD] 0.369 [/TD]

[TD] 0.103 [/TD]

[TD] 0.692 [/TD]

[TD] 0.309 [/TD]

[TD] 93 [/TD]

[TD] 89 [/TD]

[TD] 0.440 [/TD]

[TD] 0.8 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Munenori Kawasaki [/TD]

[TD] 160 [/TD]

[TD] 1 [/TD]

[TD] 17 [/TD]

[TD] 11 [/TD]

[TD] 2 [/TD]

[TD] 0.242 [/TD]

[TD] 0.320 [/TD]

[TD] 0.335 [/TD]

[TD] 0.093 [/TD]

[TD] 0.655 [/TD]

[TD] 0.296 [/TD]

[TD] 79 [/TD]

[TD] 90 [/TD]

[TD] 0.448 [/TD]

[TD] 0.4 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Josh Thole [/TD]

[TD] 33 [/TD]

[TD] 0 [/TD]

[TD] 3 [/TD]

[TD] 3 [/TD]

[TD] 0 [/TD]

[TD] 0.253 [/TD]

[TD] 0.321 [/TD]

[TD] 0.344 [/TD]

[TD] 0.091 [/TD]

[TD] 0.665 [/TD]

[TD] 0.299 [/TD]

[TD] 86 [/TD]

[TD] 96 [/TD]

[TD] 0.479 [/TD]

[TD] 0.1 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Ryan Goins [/TD]

[TD] 232 [/TD]

[TD] 5 [/TD]

[TD] 22 [/TD]

[TD] 24 [/TD]

[TD] 0 [/TD]

[TD] 0.244 [/TD]

[TD] 0.283 [/TD]

[TD] 0.366 [/TD]

[TD] 0.122 [/TD]

[TD] 0.648 [/TD]

[TD] 0.287 [/TD]

[TD] 60 [/TD]

[TD] 71 [/TD]

[TD] 0.333 [/TD]

[TD] 0.0 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Anthony Gose [/TD]

[TD] 162 [/TD]

[TD] 3 [/TD]

[TD] 18 [/TD]

[TD] 13 [/TD]

[TD] 2 [/TD]

[TD] 0.238 [/TD]

[TD] 0.288 [/TD]

[TD] 0.371 [/TD]

[TD] 0.133 [/TD]

[TD] 0.660 [/TD]

[TD] 0.291 [/TD]

[TD] 70 [/TD]

[TD] 68 [/TD]

[TD] 0.314 [/TD]

[TD] 0.0 [/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD] Moises Sierra [/TD]

[TD] 233 [/TD]

[TD] 6 [/TD]

[TD] 25 [/TD]

[TD] 24 [/TD]

[TD] 0 [/TD]

[TD] 0.246 [/TD]

[TD] 0.312 [/TD]

[TD] 0.391 [/TD]

[TD] 0.146 [/TD]

[TD] 0.704 [/TD]

[TD] 0.312 [/TD]

[TD] 82 [/TD]

[TD] 63 [/TD]

[TD] 0.283 [/TD]

[TD] -0.2 [/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[GD]

Stephen Drew 600 PA: 108 wRC+ 3.5 WAR

Ryan Goins 600 PA: 60 wRC+ 0.1 WAR

 

hmmmm

 

Preach

[DuckDuckGose]

Stephen Drew 600 PA: 108 wRC+ 3.5 WAR

Ryan Goins 600 PA: 60 wRC+ 0.1 WAR

 

hmmmm

 

Thats Drew at SS though right?

[GD]

Thats Drew at SS though right?

 

Converting SS to 2B saves almost 2 defensive runs, and the positional adjustment is 5 runs going from SS/2B, so that's about 3 runs, or like a third of a win. Just a back of a napkin thing before bed.

[Abomination]

Thats Drew at SS though right?

 

I wonder if you could actually make a case that who is the SS and who is the 2nd baseman should be dependent on who is at bat? If you have a left handed pull hitter or a right handed opposite field hitter (Jeter), you might actually be better off swapping the 2nd baseman and shortstop. (or the alternative being the Lawrie shift if no one is on base)

[Laika]

Wrote a brief history of AA because he's terrible and he used to be awesome. Read it!

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/02/23/what-happened-to-the-ninja/

[GD]

I would put that in the fire AA thread.

[G-Snarls]

Wrote a brief history of AA because he's terrible and he used to be awesome. Read it!

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/02/23/what-happened-to-the-ninja/

 

Awesome. Can't wait to read this.

[Laika]

Fantasy Catcher rankings: http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/03/08/fantasy-ballevski-catcher-rankings/

 

Going to try to roll out rankings all week. Not sure if I'll be able to get to every position and a big board, but I'll try.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Fantasy Catcher rankings: http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/03/08/fantasy-ballevski-catcher-rankings/

 

Going to try to roll out rankings all week. Not sure if I'll be able to get to every position and a big board, but I'll try.

 

Thanks NJH

 

-#1fanboy

[Laika]

Fantasy 3B rankings: http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/03/11/fantasy-ballevski-3b-rankings/

 

Already did Catcher rankings: http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/03/08/fantasy-ballevski-catcher-rankings/

[Laika]

The value of Draft Picks:

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/03/12/the-value-of-draft-picks/

 

This seems excellent at a glance, a great resource.

[Nox]

The value of Draft Picks:

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/03/12/the-value-of-draft-picks/

 

I know using 30 as the average age for the first year of FA is just a quick heuristic that you used (understandable that you would too given the grossness in figuring out service time stuff for each player) but did you find that 30 was in fact the average age?

 

Even if you did, I think there's a slight problem with that. The players who reach free agency earlier are, by in large, the better prospects. So having a few of their prime years in the sample might skew things significantly.

 

I apologize if you answered these questions in the article as I skimmed it really quick. That was just an initial thought from reading about a paragraph and looking at the results.

 

Cool/important article topic though.