Breaking Blue: Toronto Blue Jays Blog is live

[Angrioter]

What do you mean by "very little natural plane on his pitches"?

 

http://cdn.riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/catcher.jpg

 

Lower release point, then, the ball will have less vertical movement ="Hanging fastball" "Hard contacts" "Dingers"

 

Gravity is inversely proportional to the height.

Edited December 4, 2013 by Angrioter

[Abomination]

 

Lower release point, then, the ball will have less vertical movement ="Hanging fastball" "Hard contacts" "Dingers"

 

Gravity is inversely proportional to the height.

 

The difference in gravity due to height really has nothing to do with it (in fact it would have the opposite effect, in that the taller pitcher's pitches would have very slightly less pull on them, although this is far too small a difference to consider).

 

It simply has to do with the angle that the ball is released at. A taller pitcher (usually) releases the ball at a higher point, and therefore the ball has to travel downward at a sharper angle in order to cross the plate in the strike zone.

[Angrioter]

The difference in gravity due to height really has nothing to do with it (in fact it would have the opposite effect, in that the taller pitcher's pitches would have very slightly less pull on them, although this is far too small a difference to consider).

 

It simply has to do with the angle that the ball is released at. A taller pitcher (usually) releases the ball at a higher point, and therefore the ball has to travel downward at a sharper angle in order to cross the plate in the strike zone.

 

While the ball is closer to the ground the gravity has more effect on the ball. If your release point is higher, the ball has more chances to move down (At the same distance).

[Abomination]

While the ball is closer to the ground the gravity has more effect on the ball. If your release point is higher, the ball has more chances to move down (At the same distance).

 

The difference in gravity between the two release points is so small you probably couldn't input it on a calculator. To give you an idea, the acceleration due to gravity at Coors field is about 9.798 m/s2, and at Yankee Stadium is about 9.802 m/s2. Coors field is ~1300 meters higher in elevation. The difference between a 7' pitcher and a 6' pitcher is 0.3 meters (plus possibly some additional arm length). It's not worth even considering.

[kcjaysfan]

Assuming a 7' and a 6' pitcher in the same park, the ratio of the acceleration due to gravity is roughly 9.41767111 × 10^-8.

[Abomination]

Ya, the suggestion that gravity is different is pretty ridiculous. It's not wrong, it's just ridiculous.

 

It would probably be the equivalent of saying that the third baseman blowing at the ball as it travels to the plate would cause it to move more horizontally.

[TheHurl]

does your steamer rankings just add up all the players? I quickly looked at the innings projected for the Jays pitchers and it equaled 1700 at one point. That's a lot of extra innings games.

[Chappy]

Jays 1414 IP and 6165 PA.

 

So where do we sit at right now?

[Abomination]

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2013/12/04/offseason-power-rankings-dec-4/

 

87-75

 

Cool! You should add a section that gives what the win increases would be for the Jays specifically with a few of the free agents and rumored trade targets (like shark)

[Chappy]

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2013/12/04/offseason-power-rankings-dec-4/

 

87-75

 

Not bad considering further upgrades should be forthcoming.

[John_Havok]

Ya, the suggestion that gravity is different is pretty ridiculous. It's not wrong, it's just ridiculous.

 

If you're xxFIP doesn't include gravity, the earth's rotation and solar winds in it's calculations, I will have lost all faith in you

[GD]

If you're xxFIP doesn't include gravity, the earth's rotation and solar winds in it's calculations, I will have lost all faith in you

 

and I have lost all faith in you my good sir

[admin]

Darvish was a 4.9 WAR pitcher his first year. We need Tanaka.

Man, can't believe we missed out on Darvish when we were so close (well so far in reality though).

We might not give up Synd and TDA if we ended up with Darvish.

[Laika]

The Blue Jays need to improve a lot less than people think this offseason.

 

They should have won almost 90 last year. They got very unlucky with performance variance and results variance.

 

The group is largely the same, so projecting 87 wins without any large improvements seems sane to me.

 

Bautista, Edwin, Reyes, Rasmus, and Lawrie is a really, really good core of position players. I wonder how many teams have 5+ hitters with 3+ win Steamer projections?

[John_Havok]

and I have lost all faith in you my good sir

 

f***. Now my life has no meaning...

[admin]

The Blue Jays need to improve a lot less than people think this offseason.

 

They should have won almost 90 last year. They got very unlucky with performance variance and results variance.

 

The group is largely the same, so projecting 87 wins without any large improvements seems sane to me.

 

Bautista, Edwin, Reyes, Rasmus, and Lawrie is a really, really good core of position players. I wonder how many teams have 5+ hitters with 3+ win Steamer projections?

 

I just think we need to go over and above, rather than sit and hope these guys perform like they should.

Our rotation is terrible.

Dickey - Who knows what we're going to get. He could have an high 4 ERA next year.

Buehrle - Consistent but isn't getting any younger. We're probably going to see an 83mph fastball from him this year. That's insane.

Morrow - ?

Stroman - ?

Romero - ?

Hutch - ?

[John_Havok]

The Blue Jays need to improve a lot less than people think this offseason.

 

They should have won almost 90 last year. They got very unlucky with performance variance and results variance.

 

The group is largely the same, so projecting 87 wins without any large improvements seems sane to me.

 

Bautista, Edwin, Reyes, Rasmus, and Lawrie is a really, really good core of position players. I wonder how many teams have 5+ hitters with 3+ win Steamer projections?

 

I agree, keeping them all healthy and performing will be the trick, along with a pitching staff that doesn't absolutely stink.

[John_Havok]

Not shooting themselves in the foot would be huge. They tend to run a lot of sub-replacement-level players out there. There may be a nice core in place, but if Goins is playing everyday at 2B and Sierra is getting regular time and some random vetrin bench guy gets 250 PA to do nothing with it's going to be difficult to put up the 92 wins they'll likely need. The roster management has been atrocious, and that likely needs to change.

 

Yup, definitely not on of AA's strong suits, no doubt about it.

[Laika]

I agree, keeping them all healthy and performing will be the trick, along with a pitching staff that doesn't absolutely stink.

 

Stability is the key. The goal here should be marginal improvements and notable gains in roster robustness (unless you can get a good deal on a single big WAR addition, of course).

 

A better floor option at 2B + some bankable SP production would go a long way in this regard.

 

I'm also a big fan of finding Lind a RHH platoon partner that has some actual defensive utility. That type of player can mean a lot in terms of roster robustness. You always see teams like Oakland and Tampa Bay cycling players with actual defensive utility in DH platoons. There's a reason for it.

[Abomination]

I'm also a big fan of finding Lind a RHH platoon partner that has some actual defensive utility. That type of player can mean a lot in terms of roster robustness. You always see teams like Oakland and Tampa Bay cycling players with actual defensive utility in DH platoons. There's a reason for it.

 

Yeah, it's called lack of cash. In all seriousness though, if Seattle manages to score Cano they are going to have a bit of a surplus on the infield. Someone like Ackley or Franklin should become available to help with the 2B situation. Ruggiano would make a nice backup outfielder and platoon partner with Lind.

[John_Havok]

If Seattle lands Cano, it will be a colossal mistake. the amount of money they'd have to pay him to go there instead of the Yankees would be obscene and would practically cripple their ability to sign anyone for the next 8-9 years. Jack Z is retarded but there's no way he's that retarded. JayZ and company are just using the Seattle rumours to put pressure on the Yankees to up their offer.

[Abomination]

If Seattle lands Cano, it will be a colossal mistake. the amount of money they'd have to pay him to go there instead of the Yankees would be obscene and would practically cripple their ability to sign anyone for the next 8-9 years. Jack Z is retarded but there's no way he's that retarded. JayZ and company are just using the Seattle rumours to put pressure on the Yankees to up their offer.

 

Possibly, but I think Seattle IS dumb enough to do it, and the Yankees may very well decide they can't come close to the offer and sign someone else.

[Chappy]

Yankees already signed KJ and have Nunez to back him up.

 

A small price to pay for a negotiation tactic, lol.

[connorp]

A small price to pay for a negotiation tactic, lol.

 

Well, they wont have Arod for at least 50 games I would say. So KJ made sense as he can slide over there even if they sign cano

[connorp]

It was more about his versatility than a negotiation thing I think. But in the process they did pick up insurance, giving them some leverage

[Chappy]

It was more about his versatility than a negotiation thing I think. But in the process they did pick up insurance, giving them some leverage

 

Yeah I was just kidding. KJ is clearly just a backup plan and a solid one at that.

[ace3113]

KLAW on plane:

Aaron (NM)

Why is height (and downhill plane) less of a concern for relievers than starters?

 

Klaw (12:38 PM)

 

Still a concern, but starters moving to the pen tend to throw harder, and you only face hitters once per game.

[ace3113]

Breaking Blue's recent interview with prospect guru Marc Hulet.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2013/12/06/prospect-chat-with-marc-hulet-fangraphs/

[ace3113]

Don't link your post preview lol

 

Probably not a good idea to quote the link either.

[Frag]

So I was curious to see what would happen if I would apply the same regression model Chris used for xK% (same independent variables), but for batters instead. Interesting to notice the strong relationship between xK% and K% (p < 0.0001):

 

 

I did the same for xBB%. While the relationship between xBB% and BB% wasn't as strong, it was still pretty strong and statistically significant (p < 0.0001):

 

 

There was also more noticeable heteroskedasticity in this model (the non-linear R^2 value was around 0.67), which I should probably check using a Levene's test. Otherwise, it looks good!

 

In addition, just for interest's sake, I ran the same multiple regression model but with HR/FB ratio as the dependent variable. I got an adjusted R^2 value of 0.37 (p < 0.0001). Much lower than the other two, but still surprisingly significant.

 

What do you think, Chris?

 

I should state what data I used. I used players data btwn 2008-2013 seasons, minimum 200 PA (that's combined seasons, not single seasons, data).

 

EDIT: Okay, so after running a Levene's test on the xBB%-BB% relationship, the p-value was less than 0.05. As such, the model violates the equality of variance requirement for regression. I'm guessing this is the result of a larger sample size needed for BB% relative to K%.

Edited December 6, 2013 by Frag