Stoeten, AA the latest on starters!

[Olerud363]

http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2013/09/24/aas-quest-for-pitchers-creative-use-of-payroll-space-and-young-arms-as-trade-chips/

 

http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2013/09/25/blue_jays_gm_says_upgrade_behind_plate_needed.html#

 

AA needs starters. Stoeten suggests McCarthy and Cahill and Brett Anderson??

 

The starting rotation has Dickey (good bounce back candidate) and Buerhle. Beyond that is Morrow, Romero, Drabek, Redmond, Rogers, Hutchison, Nolin, Stroman, J.A. Happ... possibly even Josh Johnson, possibly even Aaron Sanchez by June.

 

Admittedly Stoeten doesn't advocate giving up a lot for McCarthy/Cahill/Anderson... and AA holds his cards tight. But here are some thoughts.

 

1. Rogers center is a slight hitters park so the pitching looks a tad worse then it really is, the hitting a tad better. OPS+ is 98, ERA+ is 96. Really both are at the 75 win level or so.

 

2. Last year AA made the mistake of projecting 2012 performances forward too optimistically... Projecting Dickey, Johnson, Morrow, Buerle too optimistically based on 2012 stats. Is he making the same mistake in the opposite direction? At this point we don't care about Dickey, Johnson, Buerhle, Morrow 2013... we care about projected 2014 making reasonable assumptions about health.

 

3. Oakland allready traded Cahill to get younger and turned him into Jarrod Parker. Oakland didn't think McCarthy was worth bringing back, and now they might not bring back Anderson. So Stoeten is advocating taking guys that one of the best franchise in baseball has all ready discarded. In fact Oakland's strategy is to cycle these guys out in their mid 20s, for young 20s guys. But Stoeten wants us to bring them in 2 or 3 years after Oakland cycled them out????

 

Now Stoeten does see the grey in the situation... "Cahill isn't that great". So Oakland turned Cahill into Jarod Parker... and now we are going after Cahill?? An entire cycle later??

 

If we don't have the guts to trust Nolin, Stroman, Sanchez and a all the other depth... and Stroman is where Parker was a couple years ago, Sanchez is where Cahill was 5 or 6 years ago, Instead of leaping ahead to Cahill 2014... let's give Billy Beane a call.

 

Beane likes to cycle these guys out early. Would it make sense to ask him about Giffin, Parker, Malone?? Get one of these guys just after Beane discards him... instead of a cycle later?? What do you scout-hounds think about those three and the chance of acquiring one with some of our depth/prospects??

 

Personally I'd rather just trust our depth... but if AA is hell-bound for a starter I'd call Billy Beane. He's made those types of trades before, good 24 year old starter for some younger starters.

[SAAviour]

I'd also rather trust our depth and sink or swim with the young guys.

[ExposFan]

I'm amazed anyone would waste their time reading what Stoeten has to say.

 

The chubby hipster is nothing more than another Rogers stooge at this point.

[Angrioter]

Now Stoeten does see the grey in the situation... "Cahill isn't that great". So Oakland turned Cahill into Jarod Parker... and now we are going after Cahill?? An entire cycle later??

 

what?

 

Cahill is s*** (Deck McGuire type of guy). Anderson is a great arm but..........can't stay healthy

[GNick]

Anderson? Think we have enough injured pitchers now. Pitchers who been injured before tend to be injured again.

[DuckDuckGose]

http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2013/09/24/aas-quest-for-pitchers-creative-use-of-payroll-space-and-young-arms-as-trade-chips/

 

http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2013/09/25/blue_jays_gm_says_upgrade_behind_plate_needed.html#

 

AA needs starters. Stoeten suggests McCarthy and Cahill and Brett Anderson??

 

The starting rotation has Dickey (good bounce back candidate) and Buerhle. Beyond that is Morrow, Romero, Drabek, Redmond, Rogers, Hutchison, Nolin, Stroman, J.A. Happ... possibly even Josh Johnson, possibly even Aaron Sanchez by June.

 

Admittedly Stoeten doesn't advocate giving up a lot for McCarthy/Cahill/Anderson... and AA holds his cards tight. But here are some thoughts.

 

1. Rogers center is a slight hitters park so the pitching looks a tad worse then it really is, the hitting a tad better. OPS+ is 98, ERA+ is 96. Really both are at the 75 win level or so.

 

2. Last year AA made the mistake of projecting 2012 performances forward too optimistically... Projecting Dickey, Johnson, Morrow, Buerle too optimistically based on 2012 stats. Is he making the same mistake in the opposite direction? At this point we don't care about Dickey, Johnson, Buerhle, Morrow 2013... we care about projected 2014 making reasonable assumptions about health.

 

3. Oakland allready traded Cahill to get younger and turned him into Jarrod Parker. Oakland didn't think McCarthy was worth bringing back, and now they might not bring back Anderson. So Stoeten is advocating taking guys that one of the best franchise in baseball has all ready discarded. In fact Oakland's strategy is to cycle these guys out in their mid 20s, for young 20s guys. But Stoeten wants us to bring them in 2 or 3 years after Oakland cycled them out????

 

Now Stoeten does see the grey in the situation... "Cahill isn't that great". So Oakland turned Cahill into Jarod Parker... and now we are going after Cahill?? An entire cycle later??

 

If we don't have the guts to trust Nolin, Stroman, Sanchez and a all the other depth... and Stroman is where Parker was a couple years ago, Sanchez is where Cahill was 5 or 6 years ago, Instead of leaping ahead to Cahill 2014... let's give Billy Beane a call.

 

Beane likes to cycle these guys out early. Would it make sense to ask him about Giffin, Parker, Malone?? Get one of these guys just after Beane discards him... instead of a cycle later?? What do you scout-hounds think about those three and the chance of acquiring one with some of our depth/prospects??

 

Personally I'd rather just trust our depth... but if AA is hell-bound for a starter I'd call Billy Beane. He's made those types of trades before, good 24 year old starter for some younger starters.

 

The reason you would target Cahill/Anderson/McCarthy is because they would be cheaper than when the A's sold them off. Going after Griffin/Milone/Parker would be falling in to the same type of bad deal that has allowed OAK to be successful rebuilding their rotation over and over.

[DuckDuckGose]

The mistake AA made was overpaying for Dickey. He should have overpaid for Latos. That's the kind of guy we should be looking for. Its to bad we had one developing and AA decided to trade him. He goes by the name of Noah Syndergaard and hes going to make AA regret that trade for a long time.

 

I'd still overpay for a legit ace. The Jays don't have anyone I would feel comfortable throwing out there for the one game playoff. Obviously a lot can change but the top of the rotation looks awfully thin at the moment. These are a few top flight starters that could be available this off-season; Scherzer/Verlander, Sale, Lee, Holland, Bailey, Iwakuma, Zimmermann and Masterson. I doubt even one of them gets moved but those are the kind of guys I'd be making calls to land -- not the Cahill's of the world.

[Olerud363]

The reason you would target Cahill/Anderson/McCarthy is because they would be cheaper than when the A's sold them off. Going after Griffin/Milone/Parker would be falling in to the same type of bad deal that has allowed OAK to be successful rebuilding their rotation over and over.

 

I would personally prefer we just stick with our depth.

 

The problem I see with Cahill/Anderson/McCarthy is that it basically doesn't have any advantage over Morrow/Johnson/Happ/Rogers/Redmond/Drabek/Hutch/Stroman/Nolin/Sanchez blah, blah, blah,. I guess I see more potential upside in going with our depth, then would be in Cahill/Anderson/McCarthy.

 

Now if you can grab a couple of those guys without giving up any thing of value. OK.

 

I guess I would see Jarod Parker and Griffin especially being a step above... where you might hit a 4 WAR guy, for their 26/27 seasons (while giving Billy Beane a 5 WAR guy for 2016).

 

So we lose in the end as always. But it's like the lesser of two evils. Who the hell knows what AA would give up for Cahill.

[Olerud363]

I'd still overpay for a legit ace. The Jays don't have anyone I would feel comfortable throwing out there for the one game playoff. Obviously a lot can change but the top of the rotation looks awfully thin at the moment. These are a few top flight starters that could be available this off-season; Scherzer/Verlander, Sale, Lee, Holland, Bailey, Iwakuma, Zimmermann and Masterson. I doubt even one of them gets moved but those are the kind of guys I'd be making calls to land -- not the Cahill's of the world.

 

That's why I suggest Parker and Griffin. These guys are 25 or so. Dan Haren, Gio Gonzales, provided good value when aqcuired at that age. Cahill not as much.

 

But if there are no true aces available why not grab a 25 year old who could be headed for his best 2 years??

[DuckDuckGose]

I think we are forgetting just how good those former OAK pitchers were at a young age as well.

 

 

Chances are most of these guys are about the same. We could let AA trust his scouts and gamble on getting the right pitcher but, I doubt most, if any, of us are comfortable with that approach. I'm sure part of the argument is that McCarthy, Cahill and Anderson have all missed time due to injury. However, in the case of SP's it's just a matter of when they get hurt -- not if. Consider that OAK will be asking for an arm and a leg in exchange for this wave of young controllable starters it doesn't seem like a great option IMO.

[Olerud363]

The reason you would target Cahill/Anderson/McCarthy is because they would be cheaper than when the A's sold them off. Going after Griffin/Milone/Parker would be falling in to the same type of bad deal that has allowed OAK to be successful rebuilding their rotation over and over.

 

The reality is we have AA and the Beest. So the smartest thing may not be feasible. So we're stuck looking at the least dumb thing they could do.

 

Now it depends on how dumb AA really is. If he's dumb enough to trade a package with Stroman/Nolin/Sanchez for rif-raf... then we immediately hope he targets a true ace or a Griffin/Parker type instead... some upside.

 

If he's just searching for guys he can get for nothing... then of course. Go for that.

[Olerud363]

I think we are forgetting just how good those former OAK pitchers were at a young age as well.

Chances are most of these guys are about the same. We could let AA trust his scouts and gamble on getting the right pitcher but, I doubt most, if any, of us are comfortable with that approach. I'm sure part of the argument is that McCarthy, Cahill and Anderson have all missed time due to injury. However, in the case of SP's it's just a matter of when they get hurt -- not if. Consider that OAK will be asking for an arm and a leg in exchange for this wave of young controllable starters it doesn't seem like a great option IMO.

 

You're table didn't come through right. Gonzales and Haren were allready 4 WAR players before Oakland traded them?? Correct?? And Haren steped it up a bit... Gonzales stayed about the same but cranked out a lot of wins last year.

 

Parker/Griffin are a step below that. It's always a risk, I guess I am mentally doing quick approximations. Players peak at 27. These guys are at a 2.5 WAR or so... heck maybe they can hit 4.0 for 26/27.

 

Reality is more complicated.

[DuckDuckGose]

That's why I suggest Parker and Griffin. These guys are 25 or so. Dan Haren, Gio Gonzales, provided good value when aqcuired at that age. Cahill not as much.

 

But if there are no true aces available why not grab a 25 year old who could be headed for his best 2 years??

 

To land Parker/Griffin it would cost one of Stroman, Sanchez, Hutch, or Osuna. I don't really see the point in that kind of deal. It has to be a no doubt top of the rotation guy if I'm giving away top prospects.

[DuckDuckGose]

The reality is we have AA and the Beest. So the smartest thing may not be feasible. So we're stuck looking at the least dumb thing they could do.

 

Now it depends on how dumb AA really is. If he's dumb enough to trade a package with Stroman/Nolin/Sanchez for rif-raf... then we immediately hope he targets a true ace or a Griffin/Parker type instead... some upside.

 

If he's just searching for guys he can get for nothing... then of course. Go for that.

 

Although I encourage discussing off-season moves and their merits I don't think we should try and guess what AA will do. IMO it's better to discuss the "right" direction for the club and possible moves. Then when AA does make changes this off-season we have a barometer in which to judge the moves.

 

For the record I would love to add Parker in specific. I believe that Beane would need a top prospect to land him though and I don't feel the upside or value is there to go that route. If a package of spare parts; like Drabek a good A ball guy and some relief help could get it done I would be all over that deal.

Edited September 26, 2013 by DuckDuckGose

[Dr. Dinger]

Lol pitcher winz

 

This thread is a derpfest.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

I wonder if anyone will give Bartolo Colon a multi year deal. Something like 2/10 would be interesting. Guy keeps pitching his balls off and keeps getting paid peanuts.

[DuckDuckGose]

You're table didn't come through right. Gonzales and Haren were allready 4 WAR players before Oakland traded them?? Correct?? And Haren steped it up a bit... Gonzales stayed about the same but cranked out a lot of wins last year.

 

Parker/Griffin are a step below that. It's always a risk, I guess I am mentally doing quick approximations. Players peak at 27. These guys are at a 2.5 WAR or so... heck maybe they can hit 4.0 for 26/27.

 

Reality is more complicated.

 

The table was FIP vs age/year, not WAR. I've reattached them as an image file and in graph format. I don't have Parker, Milone or Griffin on the same level as Gio and Haren Still, let's look at what they got for those guys;

 

Haren + Robertson for Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, and CarGo.

 

Gio Gonzalez for Brad Peacock, AJ Cole, Tommy Milone and Derek Norris.

 

If that's the type of package it will take, if you feel that's there talent level then that is what Beane should ask for, then no thank you. That's far too much for what is most likely a mid-rotation pitcher IMO.

[DuckDuckGose]

I wonder if anyone will give Bartolo Colon a multi year deal. Something like 2/10 would be interesting. Guy keeps pitching his balls off and keeps getting paid peanuts.

 

If I were AA I'd give that deal to Colon. If he gets hurt there is already a ton of depth (albeit sub-optimal depth) and the short term contract would give AA the luxury of waiting to see who steps up in the rotation over the next couple seasons. I'd still be on the prowl for a top of the rotation guy but, landing Colon would certainly add another quality starter to this rotation.

[Olerud363]

Although I encourage discussing off-season moves and their merits I don't think we should try and guess what AA will do. IMO it's better to discuss the "right" direction for the club and possible moves. Then when AA does make changes this off-season we have a barometer in which to judge the moves.

 

For the record I would love to add Parker in specific. I believe that Beane would need a top prospect to land him though and I don't feel the upside or value is there to go that route. If a package of spare parts; like Drabek a good A ball guy and some relief help could get it done I would be all over that deal.

 

The right direction is to do very little. Possibly explore a Rasmus trade, maybe an EE trade. Maybe even a Buerhle trade. Maybe trade Lind.

 

For 2014 award rotation spots to Morrow, Happ, Romero, hope they build some value. Make Kawasaki the full time second basemen and hope he builds some value.

 

Wait on Dickey and Bautista taking the chance they will rebuild value. At deadline 2014 start trading Bautista, Dickey, Happm, Melky. Romero, Morrow if possible, Reyes, Kawasaki, if they have decent value,.

 

Nail pick 10 and 11 or whatever it is exactly. Redirect all money into international free-agents. Implement a quadruble a policy. For 2014 and 2015 and even 2016 as veterans are traded, and replaced with young players, the young players get full time jobs almost no matter what. After having a full season or two under low pressure conditions then they are evaluated and discarded if needed.

 

Gibby gets to oversee all this, with the promise that in 2017 he gets a good young team. And barring something unforeseen we start adding pieces in 2018.

 

2017 - if all goes well Grass and 85 wins... 2018 - add peices as needed, after 25 years in the wilderness PLAYOFFS!

 

This won't happen. So we are stuck speculating on the best moves given the management.

[DuckDuckGose]

The right direction is to do very little. Possibly explore a Rasmus trade, maybe an EE trade. Maybe even a Buerhle trade. Maybe trade Lind.

 

Very little is a loosely defined term but, I think AA needs to add a starter and starting C at the minimum. I would also explore a Rasmus trade as I think he may have peaked in value and it would open some payroll space to sign Choo or McCann -- I wouldn't move Colby at any cost though, it'd have to be something significant coming back (something like Colby + Drabek to SEA for Iwakuma and Ackley?) I'd hang on to EE as the plan is to still compete. AA isn't going to be able to replace that bat. If someone is willing to offer a haul for a slugger I'd move Bautista before Edwin. I'd move Lind to clear his salary if it helps land a top $ FA but, otherwise I keep him as I don't feel you could get much in return.

 

For 2014 award rotation spots to Morrow, Happ, Romero, hope they build some value. Make Kawasaki the full time second basemen and hope he builds some value.

 

Morrow deserves to be given a rotation spot but there needs to be a contingency player in place for the inevitable injury. Happ should be given the opportunity to compete for the 5th spot but, he can be a good long man, spot starter and injury depth out of the BP. He should be on the MLB team in some capacity though. I wouldn't count on Romero for anything. Give him a shot at the 5th spot and plan as if he will start the year in AAA.

 

Wait on Dickey and Bautista taking the chance they will rebuild value. At deadline 2014 start trading Bautista, Dickey, Happm, Melky. Romero, Morrow if possible, Reyes, Kawasaki, if they have decent value,.

 

The plan isn't to rebuild. If those guys rebuild value then the team will be competing for a playoff spot and they will not be moved.

 

Nail pick 10 and 11 or whatever it is exactly. Redirect all money into international free-agents.

 

+1, an absolute must. Hopefully, it's top 10 and protected.

 

Implement a quadruble a policy. For 2014 and 2015 and even 2016 as veterans are traded, and replaced with young players, the young players get full time jobs almost no matter what. After having a full season or two under low pressure conditions then they are evaluated and discarded if needed.

 

This off-season AA will have to definitely pick a route for the organization. The plan is to compete. To fill the holes on this team he can either spend or swap assets with another organization. If AA spends, drafts well and develops the Jays' prospects well there is enough talent in the system that I think your vision will be realized. If AA moves more of the farm then we'll never see it under his reign.

 

Gibby gets to oversee all this, with the promise that in 2017 he gets a good young team. And barring something unforeseen we start adding pieces in 2018.

 

2017 - if all goes well Grass and 85 wins... 2018 - add peices as needed, after 25 years in the wilderness PLAYOFFS!

 

Hopefully, he's saying it much sooner than that.

[GD]

To land Parker/Griffin it would cost one of Stroman, Sanchez, Hutch, or Osuna. I don't really see the point in that kind of deal. It has to be a no doubt top of the rotation guy if I'm giving away top prospects.

 

I would definitely give up Hutch or Osuna for Parker. Griffin would give up 30 homers a year in Toronto.

 

Although I encourage discussing off-season moves and their merits I don't think we should try and guess what AA will do. IMO it's better to discuss the "right" direction for the club and possible moves. Then when AA does make changes this off-season we have a barometer in which to judge the moves.

 

For the record I would love to add Parker in specific. I believe that Beane would need a top prospect to land him though and I don't feel the upside or value is there to go that route. If a package of spare parts; like Drabek a good A ball guy and some relief help could get it done I would be all over that deal.

 

Yeah I want Parker as well. Drabek + A ball guy + Reliever isn't gonna be good enough unless the A ball guy is Osuna.

[Olerud363]

Very little is a loosely defined term but, I think AA needs to add a starter and starting C at the minimum.

 

The plan isn't to rebuild. If those guys rebuild value then the team will be competing for a playoff spot and they will not be moved.

 

See I think a subset of those players will rebuild value. Currently I would not see getting a real good return for Bautista + Dickey... Like they are viewed now as 2-3 WAR pieces (I know Bautista is still at 4, but what will teams view him as worth going forward). So 2 2.5 WAR players aren't worth as much as a 6 WAR player.

 

So what I see happening is some guys might rebuild value... but the whole set won't. So Dickey + Bautista might be at 6 WAR value again by mid-season... but it won't be 3 earch, it might be 6 for one, and the other is completely useless. So I see individual trade values being rebuilt... but not everyones... so no contention.

 

This is why it is difficult to play this game. A lot of fans want a rebuild... The arguments have been rehashed endlessly but basically Buerhle at 35, Dickey at 39, Bautista at 33 missing 50 games a year, Edwin at 31 bad wrist, Lind/Rasmus 1 good year in the last 3, Romero meds not working, Lawrie worse every year BAT MAY NOT PLAY AT 3rd!!!! (well probably will but boy he looks bad lately). Melky, steroid withdrawal + tumour recovery.

 

+ need to find a catcher and second basemen. So a lot has to go right for old and/or problematic set.

 

So at the very least it is a logical view to want to rebuild. A view which I (among others hold).

 

Since a rebuild is politically impossilbe (All-In!!!!) we are forced to speculate on moves that we don't truly believe in, but are the moves that one would make when your Boss says f***in' do this or your fired... kind of thing.

 

So we can't do what we believe in so what then?? Improve on the margins?? Not gonna help. Sell off the remaining prospects for players with enough upside that if they find their upside and god forbid a million things go right... then PLAYOFFS!!!

 

Weird game we are playing here.

[Olerud363]

Parker's a legit ML starter, Oakland would need multiple good pieces. Maybe Sanchez, another prospect and a reliever.

 

Given the window you almost have to say yes to that. Sanchez, Jansenn, Pillar, Norris or something?? I mean what is more value Sanchez 5 WAR in 2016, 2017, 2018, or Parker potentially 4 WAR in 2014 and 15?? Not like we know exactly what it will be, but assume Sanchez peak will be starting in 2016... Trade that for Parker's peak now... hope to hell it somehow works. Toronto wins something is "a-place-to-be-again" Rogers cranks payroll way, way up.

 

Would you trade 5 WAR a year 2016-18, for 4 WAR a year 2014-2016?

[ace3113]

For me Tanaka and/or Garza make the most sense. Neither cost a draft pick and both project at least as good number 2/3 starters.

[kgm1]

"""The right direction is to do very little. Possibly explore a Rasmus trade, maybe an EE trade. Maybe even a Buerhle trade. Maybe trade Lind. """"

 

I stated last year as long as we added some pitching I didn't care what he did as long as he didn't gut the farm . Well he gutted the farm and we are all in .

 

The one thing AA can't do this year is gut what is left of the farm . Signing a top FA pitcher just isn't in the cards. They just don't want to play here and I can't blame them . getting Tanaka will be out if the posting system changes too . Again why would he want to play here . Trading b prospects for a salary dump and signing a Ruiz Type catcher seems to me the best possible senario .

 

Let us face the facts that unless this team stays healthy we haven't got a snow balls chance in hell anyway . One of Morrow or Romero need to make 30 + starts and One of Rogers/Redmond/Happless need to be a good 5th or 6th starter . In other words go buy a f***ing lottery ticket ( Odds are better )

[BabbaGanoush]

Here's a guy most people don't even know of, Jon Niese. He was injured this year and has only pitched 120 inn but since coming back from his injury he has pitched 60 inn with a 3 fip and 3.2 xfip. Only 60 inn but they have been very well pitched 60 inn. Could be a interesting choice as a number 3-4.

[GD]

Here's a guy most people don't even know of, Jon Niese.

 

Who the hell doesn't know Niese?

 

But no, his great contract will probably drive up the price on him when in reality we need a pitcher much better than Niese to comete. He has a career 99 FIP-.

[ElNik2013]

Here's a guy most people don't even know of, Jon Niese. He was injured this year and has only pitched 120 inn but since coming back from his injury he has pitched 60 inn with a 3 fip and 3.2 xfip. Only 60 inn but they have been very well pitched 60 inn. Could be a interesting choice as a number 3-4.

 

 

 

Please no more AA vs Alderson trades, I think we've seen enough of those!

[DuckDuckGose]

I would definitely give up Hutch or Osuna for Parker. Griffin would give up 30 homers a year in Toronto.

 

 

 

Yeah I want Parker as well. Drabek + A ball guy + Reliever isn't gonna be good enough unless the A ball guy is Osuna.

 

That's kind of the point though. It is a logical return for Oakland but, how does that make sense for the Jays? If you are already giving up top prospects go out and get a star don't get a mid-rotation guy with #2 potential. FWIW I'd move Osuna + Cecil/Janssen + spare part for Parker but there is no chance that gets it done.

[DuckDuckGose]

It's very unlikely that Sanchez is a 5 WAR guy. Parker also makes no money and is plenty controllable, so it's not like it would be a definite "win-now" move. I say go for it.

 

Fat chance Parker is ever a 5 WAR guy as well. He's much more of a mid-rotation guy albeit a good one. For what it would cost it doesn't make sense for the Jays IMO.