Hayhurst: Blue Jays not in strong trade position (good read)

[Angrioter]

Will Matt Garza save the Jays’ 2013 season?

 

Probably not. One starting pitcher, no matter how good, isn’t going to make this ship stop sinking.

 

It’s not that Garza isn’t a capable starter, or that he can’t compete in the American League East, it’s that the Jays don’t need to trade a slew of prospects or quality bullpen arms to get a guy who isn’t going to put them back into contention this season.

 

And this thinking that acquiring Garza makes Josh Johnson a tradable asset… I’m sorry, but, tradable to who?

 

Johnson will probably bounce back from what is shaping up to be his worst season as a major-leaguer, but potential trade partners aren’t going to be optimistic when playing the statistically supported role of pessimist gives a strong trade position.

 

Johnson’s lack of 2013 production means general manager Alex Anthopoulos won’t get back anywhere near the value Josh was worth coming into the season, and if I know one thing about AA, it’s that he doesn’t like to go to the trading table with a losing hand.

 

The Jays will almost have to hold on to Johnson now unless they look for — and can find — a National League team willing to rent a scuffling arm at the expense of a pack of fringe prospects, hoping Johnson will bounce back in time for a post-season push.

 

Trading while the value is low is also why Brett Lawrie probably won’t get moved.

 

I thought Lawrie’s return to the majors as a second baseman made a lot of sense if you’re looking to deal. The Jays already have four second base options (Munenori Kawasaki, Maicer Izturis, Emilio Bonifacio and Mark DeRosa) that can hit around .200. Why stick Lawrie there?

 

How about because he’s a plus defensive player who hits like a second baseman and would probably play there for a team with a power hitting third base option already in service. A successful audition on the right side of the infield would boost his value.

 

Again, a nice plan on paper, but Lawrie’s continued lack of offensive production makes for another trade from weakness scenario.

 

And those other four names I just mentioned, well, they aren’t enough to reel in a big name, controllable, third base power bat if the Jays wanted do that deal in reverse. It will take a couple bullpen arms — the Jays’ only real tradable strength at the moment — and then some if they want to do that.

 

J.P. Arencibia still has value as a power hitting catcher. Not the value he had last season, since, now, after 1200 plate appearances, he’s projecting closer to a John Buck-like career than a bona fide power plant.

 

While the power he does produce helps teams look past his outrageous strikeout rate, league-worst on-base percentage, low walk rate, and high chase rates, it will render said power a limited impact tool as he’ll find himself near the bottom of the order in all but the most power-devoid lineups.

 

Plus — and I mean this in the most impartial way possible considering the circumstances — his recent decision to call out the media for criticizing his season will not help garner an interested party concerned about the clubhouse dynamic.

But the lack of tradable assets isn’t only happening in the big leagues. Anthony Gose, Ricky Romero, J.A. Happ, Brandon Morrow, Moises Sierra—it’s everywhere. The Jays are simply not in a strong trade position.

 

Teams in the hunt don’t want injured, underperforming, bad character players. They want impact players.

 

Unless the Jays are willing to piecemeal their bullpen, clean out their young prospects, or part with a major offensive cog in their “2013-2015″ World Series window machine, they’re going to have to be satisfied with what they have, or look for small, low impact swaps.

 

If the Jays do decide to go for a big splash and land an impact talent, they’ll want impact players in the same areas everyone else wants impact players—starting rotation, second base, and third base.

 

And filling those spots isn’t as simple as saying, “we’ll give you all Johnsons, Bonifacios, and DeRosas for your one proven talent”.

 

A quantity over quality trade won’t work unless you’re dealing with a rebuilding team whose upside talent is scuffling, and there aren’t many of those around.

 

The Jays have already acquired almost every one of the Miami Marlins. Before that they picked the bones of the Houston Astros.

 

Rumours and speculation have had the Jays in talks with the Philadelphia Phillies (who’ve rebounded going into the break) Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, and Seattle Mariners, but I’m afraid it’s a case of too little too late as rumours put EVERY contending team in talks with those same clubs.

 

If the Jays want to make a trade, fine. But make a trade that’s going strengthen the core characters, keep the window intact, and possibly get rid of any uncoachables. Think respectable finish to 2013 with a focus on 2014.

 

Yes, the Jays could, numerically speaking, get back into the 2013 race. But make no mistake, it would take a lot more than one or two impact trades to make that happen. A quality starter would help the effort, but the team, as a whole, has got to player better, more consistent baseball or it will all be for nothing.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/hayhurst-blue-jays-not-in-strong-trade-position/

[KingKat]

Good read. It's funny how there's a lot of talk about whether the Jays should be buyers or sellers when they aren't even in a strong position to be either. AA may end up doing nothing just bescause there's not much to be done. The system is thin which makes it hard to buy and there's not much to sell that wouldn't significantly substract from the 2014 team.

 

Will Matt Garza save the Jays’ 2013 season?

 

Probably not. One starting pitcher, no matter how good, isn’t going to make this ship stop sinking.

 

It’s not that Garza isn’t a capable starter, or that he can’t compete in the American League East, it’s that the Jays don’t need to trade a slew of prospects or quality bullpen arms to get a guy who isn’t going to put them back into contention this season.

 

And this thinking that acquiring Garza makes Josh Johnson a tradable asset… I’m sorry, but, tradable to who?

 

Johnson will probably bounce back from what is shaping up to be his worst season as a major-leaguer, but potential trade partners aren’t going to be optimistic when playing the statistically supported role of pessimist gives a strong trade position.

 

Johnson’s lack of 2013 production means general manager Alex Anthopoulos won’t get back anywhere near the value Josh was worth coming into the season, and if I know one thing about AA, it’s that he doesn’t like to go to the trading table with a losing hand.

 

The Jays will almost have to hold on to Johnson now unless they look for — and can find — a National League team willing to rent a scuffling arm at the expense of a pack of fringe prospects, hoping Johnson will bounce back in time for a post-season push.

 

Trading while the value is low is also why Brett Lawrie probably won’t get moved.

 

I thought Lawrie’s return to the majors as a second baseman made a lot of sense if you’re looking to deal. The Jays already have four second base options (Munenori Kawasaki, Maicer Izturis, Emilio Bonifacio and Mark DeRosa) that can hit around .200. Why stick Lawrie there?

 

How about because he’s a plus defensive player who hits like a second baseman and would probably play there for a team with a power hitting third base option already in service. A successful audition on the right side of the infield would boost his value.

 

Again, a nice plan on paper, but Lawrie’s continued lack of offensive production makes for another trade from weakness scenario.

 

And those other four names I just mentioned, well, they aren’t enough to reel in a big name, controllable, third base power bat if the Jays wanted do that deal in reverse. It will take a couple bullpen arms — the Jays’ only real tradable strength at the moment — and then some if they want to do that.

 

J.P. Arencibia still has value as a power hitting catcher. Not the value he had last season, since, now, after 1200 plate appearances, he’s projecting closer to a John Buck-like career than a bona fide power plant.

 

While the power he does produce helps teams look past his outrageous strikeout rate, league-worst on-base percentage, low walk rate, and high chase rates, it will render said power a limited impact tool as he’ll find himself near the bottom of the order in all but the most power-devoid lineups.

 

Plus — and I mean this in the most impartial way possible considering the circumstances — his recent decision to call out the media for criticizing his season will not help garner an interested party concerned about the clubhouse dynamic.

But the lack of tradable assets isn’t only happening in the big leagues. Anthony Gose, Ricky Romero, J.A. Happ, Brandon Morrow, Moises Sierra—it’s everywhere. The Jays are simply not in a strong trade position.

 

Teams in the hunt don’t want injured, underperforming, bad character players. They want impact players.

 

Unless the Jays are willing to piecemeal their bullpen, clean out their young prospects, or part with a major offensive cog in their “2013-2015″ World Series window machine, they’re going to have to be satisfied with what they have, or look for small, low impact swaps.

 

If the Jays do decide to go for a big splash and land an impact talent, they’ll want impact players in the same areas everyone else wants impact players—starting rotation, second base, and third base.

 

And filling those spots isn’t as simple as saying, “we’ll give you all Johnsons, Bonifacios, and DeRosas for your one proven talent”.

 

A quantity over quality trade won’t work unless you’re dealing with a rebuilding team whose upside talent is scuffling, and there aren’t many of those around.

 

The Jays have already acquired almost every one of the Miami Marlins. Before that they picked the bones of the Houston Astros.

 

Rumours and speculation have had the Jays in talks with the Philadelphia Phillies (who’ve rebounded going into the break) Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, and Seattle Mariners, but I’m afraid it’s a case of too little too late as rumours put EVERY contending team in talks with those same clubs.

 

If the Jays want to make a trade, fine. But make a trade that’s going strengthen the core characters, keep the window intact, and possibly get rid of any uncoachables. Think respectable finish to 2013 with a focus on 2014.

 

Yes, the Jays could, numerically speaking, get back into the 2013 race. But make no mistake, it would take a lot more than one or two impact trades to make that happen. A quality starter would help the effort, but the team, as a whole, has got to player better, more consistent baseball or it will all be for nothing.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/hayhurst-blue-jays-not-in-strong-trade-position/

[JaysRap]

Good read. It's funny how there's a lot of talk about whether the Jays should be buyers or sellers when they aren't even in a strong position to be either. AA may end up doing nothing just bescause there's not much to be done. The system is thin which makes it hard to buy and there's not much to sell that wouldn't significantly substract from the 2014 team.

 

I agree. Depending on what the payroll will be in 2014 the Jays may have to buy their way out of their problems (ie free agents)

[Terminator]

Good read. It's funny how there's a lot of talk about whether the Jays should be buyers or sellers when they aren't even in a strong position to be either. AA may end up doing nothing just bescause there's not much to be done. The system is thin which makes it hard to buy and there's not much to sell that wouldn't significantly substract from the 2014 team.

 

I think he should look to deal some relievers. Janssen, Cecil, and Delabar could all net something in return. Oliver probably wouldn't get us squat but should also be considered.

[G-Snarls]

I like these quotes:

 

The Jays already have four second base options (Munenori Kawasaki, Maicer Izturis, Emilio Bonifacio and Mark DeRosa) that can hit around .200. Why stick Lawrie there?

 

Teams in the hunt don’t want injured, underperforming, bad character players. They want impact players.

[Olerud363]

But the lack of tradable assets isn’t only happening in the big leagues. Anthony Gose, Ricky Romero, J.A. Happ, Brandon Morrow, Moises Sierra—it’s everywhere. The Jays are simply not in a strong trade position.

 

Depressing stuff.

 

Since early April the sum value of the Blue Jays assets has crashed...

 

no tradable assets is incredibly disturbing... it's not just that they can't make trades... it's that there will be no new young players coming for years.

 

no tradable assets means that there are few players of value... it doesn't mean that these players will all bounce back in 2 months... if people thought that these guys would bounce back then by definition they'd be tradable assets.

 

No tradable assets has incredibly disturbing implications. It means the state of the franchise is terribly unhealthy.

[sachmo55]

Good read. It's funny how there's a lot of talk about whether the Jays should be buyers or sellers when they aren't even in a strong position to be either. AA may end up doing nothing just bescause there's not much to be done. The system is thin which makes it hard to buy and there's not much to sell that wouldn't significantly substract from the 2014 team.

 

110 Mill Committed to 13 players next season, and 91 Mill in 2015 for 7(!) players.

 

Something needs to be done otherwise this team will have a tough time treading water in the next 2 years.

[Olerud363]

110 Mill Committed to 13 players next season, and 91 Mill in 2015 for 7(!) players.

 

Something needs to be done otherwise this team will have a tough time treading water in the next 2 years.

 

But what??

[Buster]

The team should have spent money, not prospects last off-season. I know they spent money...but they should have spent more money and less prospect.

 

In any case, I'm pretty sure when we look back the propects we gave up won't make our feelings that hurt...with the exception of Synder.

[theblujay]

We have at least 3 relievers who could be traded for very good return value. Since we're not going anywhere this year and bullpens are pretty easily rebuilt, why not trade 2-3 of them. I don't think Delabar, Cecil or Janssen will ever be worth more than they are now. We have plenty of depth that can take over for them.

[TheHurl]

I think he should look to deal some relievers. Janssen, Cecil, and Delabar could all net something in return. Oliver probably wouldn't get us squat but should also be considered.

 

While I agree that relievers are a position of strength and probably should be dealt, I don't think it will happen. They are still looking at 2014 and obviously volatility of relievers means nothing to them. I think there is a better chance they sell low on someone. Bonifacio is the one that makes the most sense. Take a B or C prospect from someone that values his versatility and speed.

[Angrioter]

While I agree that relievers are a position of strength and probably should be dealt, I don't think it will happen. They are still looking at 2014 and obviously volatility of relievers means nothing to them. I think there is a better chance they sell low on someone. Bonifacio is the one that makes the most sense. Take a B or C prospect from someone that values his versatility and speed.

 

Boni value is very low right now; Boni for some cash could be a fair deal lol.

[G-Snarls]

Boni value is very low right now; Boni for some cash could be a fair deal lol.

 

Sign me up

[G-Snarls]

Gibby is as much to blame as AA for the Boni fiasco. He gets ways too much playing time.

[CHRIS]

The team should have spent money, not prospects last off-season.

 

The problem is we did both.

[G-Snarls]

The problem is we did both.

 

Yep. Melky, Buerhe, Reyes all $$$

[G-Snarls]

Sigh so sad... only one player of the trades is playing well

 

And he missed 2 months

[Jimcanuck]

trade bautista already... the team is not going anywhere and with aging veterans will need to start rebuilding within 3 years

[G-Snarls]

trade bautista already... the team is not going anywhere and with aging veterans will need to start rebuilding within 3 years

 

No. With a slight re-tooling this team has a very good shot next year.

[G-Snarls]

Replace JPA via FA

 

Remove JPA and Bonifacio from the roster

 

Acquire one more legit SP when JJ walks

 

Teach Lawrie how to hit again

 

That's all we absolutely have to do for next year.

 

Upgrades at 2B/DH optional

[Terminator]

Replace JPA via FA

 

Remove JPA and Bonifacio from the roster

 

Acquire one more legit SP when JJ walks

 

Teach Lawrie how to hit again

 

That's all we absolutely have to do for next year.

 

Upgrades at 2B/DH optional

 

I agree on C, there are plenty of decent options in FA. Ruiz, Salty, Pierzynski, Buck, and Molina are all names that pop to mind after a quick glance. I'd dump Thole while we are at it. He's every bit as bad as JPA.

 

As for 2B, moving Lawrie to 2B permanently might not be a bad idea. His bat may play better there anyway. That would allow AA to look at 3B via trade as well.

 

Also, if we brought back Johnson on a qualifying offer and one more starting pitcher that would help solidify the rotation. You have to expect that at least one or two of Dickey, Johnson, Morrow, and/or Beurhle will progress to the mean. I fully expect some regression from Rogers but he could still be a back end guy. Throw in guys like Hutchinson, Drabek, and Happ who are recovering from injury and our SP depth will be a lot better.

 

We aren't in as dire of a situation as everyone thinks. With the right tweaks we will contend.

[Jays]

Sigh so sad... only one player of the trades is playing well

 

Escobar?

[G-Snarls]

escobar?

 

lol

[G-Snarls]

I don't agree with this at all.

 

How much more than 1 starter and a new catcher do you think we need?

[Angrioter]

How much more than 1 starter and a new catcher do you think we need?

 

C, 2B, 3B, LF, 1 or 2 Top-rotation guys and a new GM.

 

Morrow can't throw 150IP from now, Dickey #4, Buehrle isn't a good fit at AL East, Rogers long reliever, Romero can't throw strikes.

[G-Snarls]

How much more than 1 starter and a new catcher do you think we need?

 

I'm making the (possibly over confident) assumption that Lawrie, Dickey and Cabrera will be significantly better in the second half and next year.

Edited July 18, 2013 by G-Snarls

[Angrioter]

I'm making the (possibly over confident) assumption that Lawrie, Dickey and Cabreara will be significantly better in the second half and next year.

 

Which Melky? - Roids, Post or Pre Roids

[Terminator]

I'm making the (possibly over confident) assumption that Lawrie, Dickey and Cabreara will be significantly better in the second half and next year.

 

You could say that about our entire Opening Day starting rotation. Dickey and Beurhle have under performed and Johnson, Morrow, and Happ have been injured. I'm not expecting every single guy to bounce back but 2 or 3 of them should expect some progression to the mean.

 

And as you said, Lawrie and Cabrera should expect improvement as well. Reyes is back and that adds a couple of wins over the junk we were trotting out there at SS too.

 

Add a 2B or 3B (depending on what you do with Lawrie), a C, and another starting pitcher and I think the team will be set to contend next year. Hutchinson, Drabek, Stroman, Nolin, and maybe even Romero will lead a group that is much more suited to provide rotation depth next year too which has been a big problem this year.

[Terminator]

I think you're being a bit too optimistic.

 

Buehrle hasn't really under performed. He put up 1.9 WAR last year and is on pace for like 1.7 this year. A bit poor ERA luck, but this is Buehrle. I wouldn't expect an improvement at 35. Same with Dickey. He'll be 39 next year. Expecting an improvement is a bit much at that age IMO.

 

Yeah, you are right about Beurhle. He's gotten a little unlucky but more or less is pitching to expectations. I can't say I agree with you on Dickey though. Just because Dickey is getting older that doesn't mean that he can't progress back to his mean, it just means that his mean is going to trend downward. He's pitching like s***; to expect him to pitch better isn't "a bit much" at all IMO it's just an expectation that he will progress to his age 39 mean.

 

I can buy projecting Melky at like 1.5 WAR, and I can buy an improvement in Lawrie, but I hate the idea that everyone who was hurt/disappointing this year will naturally be better next year.

 

I didn't say that "everyone who was hurt/disappointing this year will be better" though. I said I expect 2 or 3 of our 5 Opening Day starters to improve along with Lawrie and Melky (you seem to agree on those two).

 

2014 will have its own set of injuries and poor performances, and the last two years are evidence that this team is not young, deep, or well-managed enough to weather them.

 

I agree that 2014 will have its own set of injuries and poor performances. I'm just hoping that all 5 starters and the entire left side of our defense don't tank like this year. I also think our depth in the rotation will be a lot better with Drabek, Hutchinson, Nolin, and Stroman in better positions to contribute.

[Chappy]

No. With a slight re-tooling this team has a very good shot next year.

 

I agree with this. It's looking like the SP depth in the minors should be stronger next season, the pen is stacked and we don't even have room for all our options and we have a strong enough offense.

 

This team just needs to fix the defensive deficiencies at 2B and C and add a legitimate #3 or better to the rotation. If AA can get it into his head that JPA sucks, he could plug C with a defensive minded player at a low cost. Then look to see what can be done at 2B. This team likely contends next season just by shoring up the D. Adding to the rotation just makes them that much better.