Blue Jays prospects: Sleeper, bust and new legit guy

[THANOS]

I used to think Anthony Gose had a really good floor because of the speed he brought to the OF and to the base paths. Figure he was at worst an excellent 4th OF. Is there a cautionary tale there about Alford? You could argue that Gose's physical tools WERE that of an excellent 4th OF and that it's only a bad makeup that kept him from reaching his floor and you could further argue that all Alford has to do is keep a good head on his shoulders to reach his floor. But even thout what happened to Gose isn't predictive of what will happen to Alford, I would still argue that there's a cautionary tale there, albeit a broad one, about overestimating a player's floor. Hardly any prospects have a floor of productive major leaguer. It's nearly always lower than that.

 

Very true. I also think the hit tool is more crucial to being a consistent major leaguer than it gets credit for.

[Laika]

I used to think Anthony Gose had a really good floor because of the speed he brought to the OF and to the base paths. Figure he was at worst an excellent 4th OF. Is there a cautionary tale there about Alford? You could argue that Gose's physical tools WERE that of an excellent 4th OF and that it's only a bad makeup that kept him from reaching his floor and you could further argue that all Alford has to do is keep a good head on his shoulders to reach his floor. But even thout what happened to Gose isn't predictive of what will happen to Alford, I would still argue that there's a cautionary tale there, albeit a broad one, about overestimating a player's floor. Hardly any prospects have a floor of productive major leaguer. It's nearly always lower than that.

 

Gose still produced like a 4th OF --- 2 fWAR in 372 career games sucks but it's above replacement level. Of course you're right, that's not an excellent 4th OF at all.

 

I think Gose is a cautionary tale in one specific thing - scouting defense. If he was actually a plus defender like he was supposed to be, he would be a great 4th OF, all other things being unchanged.

 

Is there a mental component to his disappointing defensive metrics (or his poor baserunning value)? maybe. Mental assumptions/conclusions are hard to make though.

 

Kevin Pillar is obviously a good comparison. In terms of raw tools, Gose is probably better. But KP has one of the best mental games out of anyone in baseball.

Edited March 29, 2017 by Laika

[John_Havok]

I used to think Anthony Gose had a really good floor because of the speed he brought to the OF and to the base paths. Figure he was at worst an excellent 4th OF. Is there a cautionary tale there about Alford? You could argue that Gose's physical tools WERE that of an excellent 4th OF and that it's only a bad makeup that kept him from reaching his floor and you could further argue that all Alford has to do is keep a good head on his shoulders to reach his floor. But even thout what happened to Gose isn't predictive of what will happen to Alford, I would still argue that there's a cautionary tale there, albeit a broad one, about overestimating a player's floor. Hardly any prospects have a floor of productive major leaguer. It's nearly always lower than that.

 

Gose didn't have the kind of power that Alford has though. That gives Alford more leeway to be valuable even if his swing and miss remains an issue.

[Captain Adama]

Gose didn't have the kind of power that Alford has though. That gives Alford more leeway to be valuable even if his swing and miss remains an issue.

 

Oh people thought Gose had power, he had a 55 power grade IIRC and had above average ISO all up to double-A.

[Brownie19]

Gose didn't have the kind of power that Alford has though. That gives Alford more leeway to be valuable even if his swing and miss remains an issue.

 

What's Alford's best case scenario? Mike Cameron? (looks up Mike Cameron on Fangraphs) Man - Mike Cameron was underrated!

[John_Havok]

Oh people thought Gose had power, he had a 55 power grade IIRC and had above average ISO all up to double-A.

 

I haven't found any of his scouting grades in my super quick go ogling attempt, but I don't recall anyone being excited about his power. He had 1 big power season in AA where he hit 16 HR, (very lefty friendly park in New Hampshire) and while there was always optimism that he could develop more power, I think below average was the realistic expectation. He never hit more than 5 in any other minor league season.

[KingKat]

I haven't found any of his scouting grades in my super quick go ogling attempt, but I don't recall anyone being excited about his power. He had 1 big power season in AA where he hit 16 HR, (very lefty friendly park in New Hampshire) and while there was always optimism that he could develop more power, I think below average was the realistic expectation. He never hit more than 5 in any other minor league season.

 

IIRC, Fangraphs expected him to provide Devon White like production 15ish homeruns, 30ish SBs, middling OBP and great defense.

[John_Havok]

What's Alford's best case scenario? Mike Cameron? (looks up Mike Cameron on Fangraphs) Man - Mike Cameron was underrated!

 

Mike Cameron played in the height of the steroid era though, so his raw numbers look good now when you compare to current players, but in terms of wRC+ he wasn't really underrated at all.

 

That said, if Alford became Mike Camerons raw numbers in today's game, the Jays would be thrilled beyond belief.

[KingKat]

Mike Cameron played in the height of the steroid era though, so his raw numbers look good now when you compare to current players, but in terms of wRC+ he wasn't really underrated at all.

 

That said, if Alford became Mike Camerons raw numbers in today's game, the Jays would be thrilled beyond belief.

 

Frankly even if he were adjusted for inflation Mike Cameron, they should be super thrilled. Mike Cameron was a 5 win player in his prime and Alford was a major project/longshot prospect. There was a very real chance that his football career would take off and the Jays wouldn't even get a decent look at the guy much less get some real development time. If Football didn't work out, it's certainly wasn't because of the appeal of baseball.

Edited March 29, 2017 by KingKat

[Brownie19]

Mike Cameron played in the height of the steroid era though, so his raw numbers look good now when you compare to current players, but in terms of wRC+ he wasn't really underrated at all.

 

That said, if Alford became Mike Camerons raw numbers in today's game, the Jays would be thrilled beyond belief.

 

No matter how you put it - 50+ career WAR!

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Gose didn't have the kind of power that Alford has though. That gives Alford more leeway to be valuable even if his swing and miss remains an issue.

 

But can Alford pitch as a fallback plan like Gose?

[John_Havok]

But can Alford pitch as a fallback plan like Gose?

 

Can Gose pitch? We know he can throw hard but it takes a bit more than that.

[Spanky99]

Can Gose pitch? We know he can throw hard but it takes a bit more than that.

 

He pitched in High School before being drafted...

[baseballsss]

Can Gose pitch? We know he can throw hard but it takes a bit more than that.

 

When he was drafted he told teams he was only going as an OF as he didn't want to be drafted as a pitcher. Apparently he throws mid 90's and throws from the left so there is a chance he can succeed as a left specialist.

[KingKat]

When he was drafted he told teams he was only going as an OF as he didn't want to be drafted as a pitcher.

 

That he felt it necessary to issue that ultimatum suggests that he was at least as interesting of a draft prospect as a pitcher.

[Olerud363]

Frankly even if he were adjusted for inflation Mike Cameron, they should be super thrilled. Mike Cameron was a 5 win player in his prime and Alford was a major project/longshot prospect. There was a very real chance that his football career would take off and the Jays wouldn't even get a decent look at the guy much less get some real development time. If Football didn't work out, it's certainly wasn't because of the appeal of baseball.

 

As someone mentioned 50 WAR career. He was really consistent, 4-5 WAR a year from 1997-2009, a long peak!

[KingKat]

As someone mentioned 50 WAR career. He was really consistent, 4-5 WAR a year from 1997-2009, a long peak!

 

Yeah. That's pretty much a pie in the sky projection for Alford.

[Jimcanuck]

Sleeper - Danny Jansen

Bust - Urena

Legit - Palacios

 

ahem

[saskjayfan]

ahem

 

Jansen has 4 extra base hits...you think he's going to hit .400 the rest of the year? Granted he doesn't strike out a lot, but he also doesn't walk a whole bunch. Looks like you might be a bit premature with your gloating.

[Jimcanuck]

Jansen has 4 extra base hits...you think he's going to hit .400 the rest of the year? Granted he doesn't strike out a lot, but he also doesn't walk a whole bunch. Looks like you might be a bit premature with your gloating.

 

He has 5 XBH and .970 OPS at 21 yrs old in A+ with very good catching skills. What's not to like?

[saskjayfan]

He has 5 XBH and .970 OPS at 21 yrs old in A+ with very good catching skills. What's not to like?

 

fine...he hit a homer today. He has 5 extra base hits. He's still not going to hit over .400 this year.

[Jimcanuck]

fine...he hit a homer today. He has 5 extra base hits. He's still not going to hit over .400 this year.

 

never said he would. learn 2 read

[Orgfiller]

Jansen has 4 extra base hits...you think he's going to hit .400 the rest of the year? Granted he doesn't strike out a lot, but he also doesn't walk a whole bunch. Looks like you might be a bit premature with your gloating.

 

fine...he hit a homer today. He has 5 extra base hits. He's still not going to hit over .400 this year.

 

This is such weird criticism. Who cares if he isn't a slugger? As long as he can play the catching position well and not embarrass himself while hitting that already makes him a very useful piece. If he can hit like say, 2009 Yadier Molina, and also provide quality defense then that's an asset.

[saskjayfan]

This is such weird criticism. Who cares if he isn't a slugger? As long as he can play the catching position well and not embarrass himself while hitting that already makes him a very useful piece. If he can hit like say, 2009 Yadier Molina, and also provide quality defense then that's an asset.

 

I wasn't criticizing him. I was just saying he's been a .700 OPS catcher his minor league career. He's 22 and in A ball. I hope that he is having a break out season, I just said it might be a bit early to be proclaiming his play a breakout season. He could just be off to a hot start. Now you're mentioning him in the same breath as Yadier Molina....hold your horses. He's an A ball player. He's off to a good start to the season...let's get a bit more data please. Nothing would please me more than for Jansen to have a great year.

[Boxcar]

I wasn't criticizing him. I was just saying he's been a .700 OPS catcher his minor league career. He's 22 and in A ball. I hope that he is having a break out season, I just said it might be a bit early to be proclaiming his play a breakout season. He could just be off to a hot start. Now you're mentioning him in the same breath as Yadier Molina....hold your horses. He's an A ball player. He's off to a good start to the season...let's get a bit more data please. Nothing would please me more than for Jansen to have a great year.

 

Yadier Molina has been an exactly league average hitter for his career. He didn't compare defense. That's not a very high bar to aim for and specifically 2009 Molina was just a tick above average with the bat.

 

Plus, Molina might be the most overrated player since Derek Jeter.

[King]

Sleeper - Dwight Smith Jr

Bust - Tellez

New Legit Guy - Brad Jones

[saskjayfan]

Yadier Molina has been an exactly league average hitter for his career. He didn't compare defense. That's not a very high bar to aim for and specifically 2009 Molina was just a tick above average with the bat.

 

Plus, Molina might be the most overrated player since Derek Jeter.

 

Yadier was playing in the majors when he was 21. He also has a career .737 OPS at the mlb level. Jansen is 22 and hasn't played above A ball had has a career .OPS of .701 in his time in the minors. I'm more excited about Pentecost, although it's tough to know whether he can stick at the position, but his offense projects a lot better.

[Orgfiller]

Yadier Molina has been an exactly league average hitter for his career. He didn't compare defense. That's not a very high bar to aim for and specifically 2009 Molina was just a tick above average with the bat.

 

Plus, Molina might be the most overrated player since Derek Jeter.

 

Personally if we're going for overrated catchers then I think Salvador Perez takes the cake there. However, unlike Jeter both of those guys legitimately play elite defense.

[King]

Jansen has weird peripherals. From this year to last year, he has doubled his ground ball %, cut his flyball % in half, increased his line drive % by 10% and dropped his infield fly rate by 10%. Doesn't really seem like a recipe for success. He'll probably get promoted to AA at some point and then get exposed.

[Orgfiller]

Yadier was playing in the majors when he was 21. He also has a career .737 OPS at the mlb level. Jansen is 22 and hasn't played above A ball had has a career .OPS of .701 in his time in the minors. I'm more excited about Pentecost, although it's tough to know whether he can stick at the position, but his offense projects a lot better.

 

You're completely missing the point here. I never said I believed Jansen to be nearly as good as Molina, I said that if he hits well enough to not be an embarrassment while playing the catching position well then that's at least a piece that you'd like to have. On the other hand, if the hitting changes are for real and he's a high contact, high OBP low power guy (like 2009 Yadier Molina offensively) and can have average offensive seasons then he's an asset.