NHL Thread

[havok24]

Bernier trade (Burn cheap assets when you already have a solid goaltender in place)

Signing Orr and McLaren ( yay we're not going to have a 4th line next season!)

Buying out Grabo ( lol stupid)

Using funds saved on Grabo to sign Clarkson for 7 years

Buy out your top C but welcome back a s***** C for 5 more years @ 4.2M?

 

 

Offseason Grade = F

 

Fire Dave Nonis and Randy Carlyle please.

[Frag]

Do all your stats take into account the intangibles Clarkson brings over Grabovski? These are big things in hockey that are much less important in baseball. Clearing the ice, intimidating opponents, etc.

 

Grabovski can weave through opponents despite his size, take hits without much of a problem, and hold on to the puck like crazy in the offensive zone while limiting turnovers. If you don't see that as valuable, then you don't actually watch hockey. He's a tough SOB.

 

Clarkson's style is different from Grabovski's, and different style doesn't mean one player is worse than the other, but that doesn't mean he's more valuable than Grabovski.

[Frag]

Clarkson is a far more useful player than Grabo, I don't know how you idiots can argue that. Grabo is too small and doesn't clear any ice for his linemates- if he's not scoring he is basically useless IMO. Listen to the TSN and SN panels, not saying they know everything but they likely watch more hockey than anyone on this forum. One guy I respect is Doug MacLean, he has been praising Clarkson for a while now. They think it's a good signing- personally I do think the term is too long but they get a top 6 forward who is the type of player Carlyle likes.

 

You respect Doug MacLean? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

 

Btw, the SN panel tends to lack any clue how to run a hockey team. "HE PUNCHES FACES HE IS MOTIVATING THE TEAM! GIVES HIM ALL THE MONEYS!" is not solid analysis.

[Frag]

Derek Roy signs with the Blues for 1 year, $4 M. I'd rather have him than Bozo the Clown.

[Tuco]

Grabovski can weave through opponents despite his size, take hits without much of a problem, and hold on to the puck like crazy in the offensive zone while limiting turnovers. If you don't see that as valuable, then you don't actually watch hockey. He's a tough SOB.

 

Clarkson's style is different from Grabovski's, and different style doesn't mean one player is worse than the other, but that doesn't mean he's more valuable than Grabovski.

 

Heres the problem with Corsi ratings tho. It doesnt take into account any of the following things.....

 

-Physicality between 2 players

-A players strength along the boards

-A players ability to take a hit to make a play

-A players backchecking ability and how effective they are at backpressure

-A players PK'ing ability

-A players forechecking ability

-A players ability to cycle the puck in the offensive zone

-A players ability to go to the dirty areas to score goals

-A players ability to play in many different roles

-A players ability to constantly be in the right position defensively

-A players ability to NOT turn the puck over in costly areas

 

I understand that if you do many of those things it will generally lead to great puck possession numbers but it still leaves alot to be desired. A player could make a great defensive play in the defensive zone, pass the puck up to his C but to then have his C turn the puck over and the opposing team come down and get a shot on net....Boom that player that actually made the good play gets docked negatively when it comes to advanced stats and Corsi. When it comes to these 2 players (Clarkson vs Grabovski) I would say Clarkson is much more effective in the intangible areas that I posted while Grabovski is prolly the better offensive player. Advanced stats in hockey are cool but alot different then that of the sport of Baseball. Theres just so many things that happen in the course of a hockey game that you'll never see on a stat sheet or puck possesion chart. The ADV stats are a great tool to use in context but still if you can rationally analyze a game of hockey correctly with your eyes thats still the best tool imo.

 

Grabovski and Clarkson are too totally different players and each prolly fit differently and more effectively depending on the existing roster.

[jays_fever]

You respect Doug MacLean? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

 

Btw, the SN panel tends to lack any clue how to run a hockey team. "HE PUNCHES FACES HE IS MOTIVATING THE TEAM! GIVES HIM ALL THE MONEYS!" is not solid analysis.

 

What exactly makes Bozak a below average player?

[Nox]

if he's not scoring he is basically useless IMO.

 

A) That's false

 

If it were true, then even you would have to agree he was completely miscast last year in a checking role.

 

One guy I respect is Doug MacLean

 

AYFKM? Doug McLean is a loud mouth idiot harbouring some vaguely latent and vicious prejudice against Euro players. Just one example and I don't have a link but I remember going into free agency last year he had Semin somewhere in the mid 20s on his board. Obviously f***ing retarded.

 

type of player Carlyle likes.

 

Nobody can narrowly frame a problem like you Pat Tabler Fan.

[Nox]

I understand that if you do many of those things it will generally lead to great puck possession numbers but it still leaves alot to be desired. A player could make a great defensive play in the defensive zone, pass the puck up to his C but to then have his C turn the puck over and the opposing team come down and get a shot on net....Boom that player that actually made the good play gets docked negatively when it comes to advanced stats and Corsi.

 

That example doesn't really illustrate anything that you can't say about virtually any stat.

 

Say on a dead sprint Aaron Rodgers throws a seed 35 yards down the field between two defenders and hits Jordy Nelson in the hands. But Nelson drops it.

 

Rodgers' completion % and YPA take a hit despite him hitting a throw that maybe only he can make.

 

Say Chris Paul finds Joe Athletic Wing in the clear for an easy dunk but he blows it. What else should Chris Paul do?

 

Rivera shatters someone's bat but it falls in for a game winning hit.

 

An ump/ref/score keeper bone a call/ruling etc etc.

 

It's all essentially randomness of the same general class. In thin tailed domains the assumption that things will balance out as N -> big is pretty sound.

[Tuco]

A) That's false

 

If it were true, then even you would have to agree he was completely miscast last year in a checking role.

 

 

 

AYFKM? Doug McLean is a loud mouth idiot harbouring some vaguely latent and vicious prejudice against Euro players. Just one example and I don't have a link but I remember going into free agency last year he had Semin somewhere in the mid 20s on his board. Obviously f***ing retarded.

 

 

 

Nobody can narrowly frame a problem like you Pat Tabler Fan.

 

Saying Maclean has some bias against Euros is prolly stretching it.

 

He drafted Rusty Klesla #4 overall

He drafted Nikolai Zherdev #4 overall

In the Nash draft year he took like 7 euros with his picks

[Frag]

Heres the problem with Corsi ratings tho. It doesnt take into account any of the following things.....

 

-Physicality between 2 players

-A players strength along the boards

-A players ability to take a hit to make a play

 

These three essentially mean the same thing: One player is stronger and more physical than the other. Clarkson is probably more physical than Grabovski (and stronger), but Grabovski's strength is heavily underrated by most fans and the MSM it's ridiculous.

 

-A players backchecking ability and how effective they are at backpressure

-A players forechecking ability

 

These two can be related. If one is good at backchecking, then he is likely just as good at forechecking.

 

-A players PK'ing ability

 

Fair enough. You can say the same regarding a player's play on the PP. I tried to account for this before using puck possession stats, but it was always a mess so I see your point here. I think shot quality (and luck) plays a greater role on special teams than at even strength.

 

-A players ability to cycle the puck in the offensive zone

 

That can be reflected in a player's Corsi. Corsi was highly correlated to zone time between the 2000-2002 seasons (R=0.90).

 

-A players ability to go to the dirty areas to score goals

 

This can be reflected in shot distance/location, which is also tracked using a stat called Delta.

 

-A players ability to play in many different roles

-A players ability to constantly be in the right position defensively

-A players ability to NOT turn the puck over in costly areas

 

Actually, a far more significant aspect you missed completely that puck possession metrics currently don't account for is neutral zone play, which its tracking is currently in its infancy.

[Frag]

Saying Maclean has some bias against Euros is prolly stretching it.

 

He drafted Rusty Klesla #4 overall

He drafted Nikolai Zherdev #4 overall

In the Nash draft year he took like 7 euros with his picks

 

I don't think he has a Euro bias. I think he's just a plain old idiot.

[Tuco]

That example doesn't really illustrate anything that you can't say about virtually any stat.

 

Say on a dead sprint Aaron Rodgers throws a seed 35 yards down the field between two defenders and hits Jordy Nelson in the hands. But Nelson drops it.

 

Rodgers' completion % and YPA take a hit despite him hitting a throw that maybe only he can make.

 

Say Chris Paul finds Joe Athletic Wing in the clear for an easy dunk but he blows it. What else should Chris Paul do?

 

Rivera shatters someone's bat but it falls in for a game winning hit.

 

An ump/ref/score keeper bone a call/ruling etc etc.

 

It's all essentially randomness of the same general class. In thin tailed domains the assumption that things will balance out as N -> big is pretty sound.

 

Sure it prolly does balance out but theres so many variables in particular how good your other 2 linemates are defensively. If you play on a line with a really good defensive player (Datz, Bergeron, Toews etc) its going to drastically play a big role in you having a quality Corsi.

 

Also you have to factor in how a team plays and its strucular beliefs. If a team plays a fullout 3 man forecheck your going to have a much better chance at retaining posession compared to a team that plays a 2-1-2 style and almost plays passive and allows a team to exit the defensive zone much easier.

 

I'm not discrediting advanced stats in hockey just saying they dont hold the same value that they do with a sport like baseball.

[Frag]

Sure it prolly does balance out but theres so many variables in particular how good your other 2 linemates are defensively. If you play on a line with a really good defensive player (Datz, Bergeron, Toews etc) its going to drastically play a big role in you having a quality Corsi.

 

That can be accounted for somewhat using WOWY (with-or-without-you) stats, like this site does.

[Frag]

What exactly makes Bozak a below average player?

 

Check this out.

[Tuco]

These three essentially mean the same thing: One player is stronger and more physical than the other. Clarkson is probably more physical than Grabovski (and stronger), but Grabovski's strength is heavily underrated by most fans and the MSM it's ridiculous.

 

 

 

These two can be related. If one is good at backchecking, then he is likely just as good at forechecking.

 

 

 

Fair enough. You can say the same regarding a player's play on the PP. I tried to account for this before using puck possession stats, but it was always a mess so I see your point here. I think shot quality (and luck) plays a greater role on special teams than at even strength.

 

 

 

That can be reflected in a player's Corsi. Corsi was highly correlated to zone time between the 2000-2002 seasons (R=0.90).

 

 

 

This can be reflected in shot distance/location, which is also tracked using a stat called Delta.

 

 

 

Actually, a far more significant aspect you missed completely that puck possession metrics currently don't account for is neutral zone play, which its tracking is currently in its infancy.

 

Ya but Corsi wont tell you when any of those qualities either lead to a costly turnover or great play to lets say clear the puck. Every turnover isnt the same and being strong in the areas I just posted will lead to less costly mistakes. Let me ask you a question....If your pinned in your own zone and the puck is stuck in a scrum along the boards, which player do you have more confidence in that will win that puck battle and eventually get the puck cleared out of danger?

 

Naw forechecking and being a effective backchecker and understanding backpressure and positioning arent the same thing. To be a effective forechecker you sometimes just need decent speed and ability to track the defenseman and lay a hit. To be a effective backchecker it takes more hockeysense, read where the open player is and also seeing whos coming behind you. One of those most underrated aspects of the Leafs improved play last season was in its ability to apply significantly better backpresure then in previous years.

 

Corsi is a solid advanced stat. I'm not trashing it and saying that it should be completey ignored or anything of that nature just that it has holes. Clarkson and Grabovski are 2 vastly different players and alot of the things Clarkson is good at are the intangible things that the stats guys usually dont buy into.

[Frag]

Ya but Corsi wont tell you when any of those qualities either lead to a costly turnover or great play to lets say clear the puck. Every turnover isnt the same and being strong in the areas I just posted will lead to less costly mistakes. Let me ask you a question....If your pinned in your own zone and the puck is stuck in a scrum along the boards, which player do you have more confidence in that will win that puck battle and eventually get the puck cleared out of danger?

 

Naw forechecking and being a effective backchecker and understanding backpressure and positioning arent the same thing. To be a effective forechecker you sometimes just need decent speed and ability to track the defenseman and lay a hit. To be a effective backchecker it takes more hockeysense, read where the open player is and also seeing whos coming behind you. One of those most underrated aspects of the Leafs improved play last season was in its ability to apply significantly better backpresure then in previous years.

 

Corsi is a solid advanced stat. I'm not trashing it and saying that it should be completey ignored or anything of that nature just that it has holes. Clarkson and Grabovski are 2 vastly different players and alot of the things Clarkson is good at are the intangible things that the stats guys usually dont buy into.

 

I was actually confused why you were critiquing Corsi wrt Clarkson, since Clarkson actually has good numbers based on these metrics. I wasn't criticizing the player as much as the contract he got. 7 years is way too long for a player of his type, especially at his age.

[Tuco]

I was actually confused why you were critiquing Corsi wrt Clarkson, since Clarkson actually has good numbers based on these metrics. I wasn't criticizing the player as much as the contract he got. 7 years is way too long for a player of his type, especially at his age.

 

I agree with that even tho I like Clarkson as a player. I dont have a problem with the advanced stats making a crossover into hockey but I think they need to be taken in context more then Baseball or even Basketball.

[havok24]

Wish we kept MacArthur as he is cheap, versatile, and a pretty good player who drives posession. MacArthur/Roy on their short term deals would have been better than the mess Nonis created last night.

 

Cutting Grabo to bring back Bozak?

 

I'm almost at the point where I kind of want this team to fail next season just to see those two f***ing idiots (Carlyle, Nonis) fired by next summer. What the f*** is a Randy Carlyle type player anyway?

 

f*** this.

[jays_fever]

Check this out.

 

That was an honest question.. i watch like 10 leaf games a year.

[Frag]

That was an honest question.. i watch like 10 leaf games a year.

 

Ah okay. He's not very good in the defensive zone, slightly above-average in the faceoff dot (though, that's not very significant in the grand scheme of things), not a good passer (and turns the puck over a lot), and doesn't put many shots on net.

[Frag]

What the f*** is a Randy Carlyle type player anyway?

 

Someone who hits and facepunches a lot, regardless of how talented the player is.

[Errorcebia]

Think of some of the players that have gone top 5 in the draft for the past 6-7 years. We could have had a few of them if Burke didn't start this huge mess to begin with. By refusing to rebuild he set the team back about 20 years, and now Nonis has just set us back another decade.

[TheHurl]

Grabo better get a contract soon, his buyout was used up on the fireworks display at his wedding. He got married down the street from my apartment and it had to be a 20 minute nice firework display, Probably $50K worth

[Frag]

Grabo better get a contract soon, his buyout was used up on the fireworks display at his wedding. He got married down the street from my apartment and it had to be a 20 minute nice firework display, Probably $50K worth

 

Did you find any remains of the Leafs management/coaches from those fireworks?

[TheHurl]

I didn't know it was his wedding until I saw the pics this morning...or I would have crashed yelling "I'm Randy Carlyle what do you mean I'm not invited".

[8D]

Russians and dem fireworks.

[mitchf]

So I hope somebody's already gone in on the Leafs for signing Clarkson?

 

When I read the term, I laughed to myself at work. Absolutely shameful.

[Nox]

So I hope somebody's already gone in on the Leafs for signing Clarkson?

 

When I read the term, I laughed to myself at work. Absolutely shameful.

 

When you get the chance to overpay for someone's decline years, you do it.

[havok24]

When Clarkson scores 17 goals next year he's going to get crucified in Toronto.

 

Signing a 29 year old banger to a 7 year deal. What could possibly go wrong? f***ing Nonis.

[havok24]

Worse GM: AA or Nonis?

 

I'm not too sure, but I willing to bet they both evaluate players the same way.