Olerud363.354

They need 3 rules 1. Don't swing 2. Swing hard and assume it's down the middle 3. Stay alive do what you need to They need to use one more liberally in 3-0 counts and sometimes 3-1 depending who it is. They need to use 2 for 3-1, 2-0, 2-1 probably and what I mean by two is don't f***ing adjust and send the low and away slider to the short stop. Swing hard, hit it either 420 feet or miss it by a foot it you guess wrong. 3. Which is what they do all the time is ONLY for 2 strike counts. No I'm not a coach and don't pretend to be, but on the TV I see Judge, Ohtani, Ben Rice, Schwarber do this. Maybe other players like VGJ can't be taught this, but at least try to teach them it.

By my calculation we are currently 13th worst. So 13 pick = 23 If we finish strong we could be 16th worst = 26 pick If we finish weak we could be 11th worse (Minnesota and St. Louise could pass us) = 21st pick. 12 % chance pick is top 6 88 % chance pick is 21-25th Typical picks at 21-25 level Chad Jenkins, Mike Trout, Eury Perez. Eury Perez is already picked, but what I mean is in 2 years the pick will be converted to Eury Perez, then become not quite Mike Trout but good. Eury Perez will be 9-11 3.98 with some 4 run innings at the worst times before getting Tommy John with the 2029 78-84 Blue Jays.

Are they still starting regularly too? Brilliant. Still waiting for a team to really just demolish the traditional paradigm of starter/reliever. This is not new. Over the years teams have dabbled. Like this year I believer Mariners went to a piggy back system. Start with clearly establishing limits on each Guy. Dylan Cease max pitches = 90 max innings a season = 150. Spencer Miles (2027) max pitches = 65, max innings = 120. Nolan Perry similar. Louise Varland max innings = 70. Then within those limits optimize leverage, and also allow the starters to pitch relief on their throw day. Not all the time but if situation warrants. Dylan Cease throw day, Rogers 2 days in a row already, Louise Varland 28 pitches last night. Does Dylan come in for a 28 pitch save himself? No of course not. Comes in with an out in the 8th for 3 batters max. Just to take the load off those guys a bit. Innings are allocated according to leverage. Openers used liberally. Spaghetti and Lorenzen types (unless prove they are good) used in low leverage. If game becomes low leverage either way. Stick by the rules. No Louise Varland in non-save. IF you occasionally blow a 4 or 5 run lead early in the season so be it, if it avoids everyone gassed later in the season.

Just imagine they hadn't signed him. Like what if Ty France was the first basemen, or Alonso, or Murakami or Spencer Horwitz. Or Randal Grichuk first half and Sean Keys second. Because of the butterfly effect (someone different standing at first different at bats, different timing for everything) Ponce not injured. Perhaps Barger not injured (maybe Suzuki is the first basebam, and Barger 3rd so never makes that throw from right). We would have cried so sad... Bo and Vlad both gone. Then slowly... slowly... the sun would rise, The Jays would be on track for 85 wins. And a fun season, hope for the future. Sean Keys hitting them high into the night sky.

I remember how upset people were at the end of game 7, and I mentioned them the breaks. Either way it didn't matter much for long term franchise health. Wouldn't have made a difference either way. Win or lose game 7. And obviously from the massive interest, the TV ratings, selling out every game, the new fans, the buzz the outcome of game 7 didn't matter to new fans. So many fans created... And just as quickly destroyed... What I said then is what really matters are seasons of disaster, seasons over before they begin, injuries, legacy players collapsing to nothing, Albatross contracts crippling hope. A dead offense that brings no excitement. All of this happened. The damage this season did to long term franchise health is unmeasurable. And the cherry on top of course that interview!

Home Run leaders 1st basemen 2029 (500+ at bats) 1. Pete Alonso Baltimore 43 2. Nick Kurtz Las Vegas 42 3. Ben Rice NY Yankees 39 17th Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3 Why not. Why not down to 3? He isn't going to try. Even if he hits 14, or 19, or 22 not enough. And he won't. He'll hit .233 3 38 -5 WAR in 2029. Like wouldn't he? He's already been paid for his accomplishments so doesn't need anymore.

Realistically the franchise isn't a joke, but just entering a 5-20 year old downcycle just like after 1993 and 2016. This Vlad thing could make the downcycle as deep as the 93-2014 one, with the exception that in the new playoff system maybe they'll sneak an 87 win team in. The sad thing is Vlad will under contract for all of it. Sean Keys will be discarded for spare sparts, but as soon as 2030 will they discard the next Sean Keys? Or sit (release?) Vlad. Sean Keys 800k .290 37 110 for the Mets (why not), thrilling the fans as the Pete Alonso replacement Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 35 million .238 7 45 -2 WAR, they might even have to reduce the beer price.

The season from hell. Just what we needed. 500 million dollar man "I don't have to try. I got paid for 2021, the homerun Derby, the .400 average in double a, and the homer of Ohtani in the World Series,"

Insane. I mean what does even look like 2 years from now? Coming back from a strike Jays go 20-50 in some 70 game season with Vlad playing 20 games and hitting .150. And that's THE next season we will experience. Attendance isn't going below 2 million. It's going below 1 million. All those complaining you can't take your kids to baseball, THEY will pay you to go and watch Vlad hit into 4 double plays.

Insane, disrespectful, insane. Franchise ending. Pete Alonso, working his f***ing ass off, to hit deep drives, and give the fans some moment of joy during a dismal season. Vlad Guerrero Jr. REFUSES to hit 40 homers, apparently because he hasn't been paid. He was paid for what he did in the past not for the future. According to the logic we need to offer him another contract for the future. Maybe give him 400 million more for 2027-2031 to at least do something those years.

Why would he change his mechanics. He isn't owed any more money. He has been paid for what he did 2021 to 2026, and now his career is... I don't know, not exactly over, but he isn't being paid so doesn't have much incentive to improve. He got the 500 million for his 2019 to 2026 totals. But isn't getting any money anymore so like anyone would, just chilaxing and chopping some ground balls.

He doesn't feel any f***ing sense of shame watching Alonso. Watching a fully functional major league 1st basemen, working hard at his craft and launching them high in the sky, giving the fans (what fans there are) thrills? And don't f***ing laugh at the Orioles crowds. That is us us as soon as next year. You f***ing chuds have zero concept of how much damage this season did. You have NO f***ING idea how fast attendance will drop, how bad this could get. From 2017 to 2019 3.2 million to 1.7. Attendance will be under 2 million next time they play. They will sell every player except Vlad, and THERE NEVER BE ANY JOY AGAIN. Attendance will be 700k after 4 years of this. At least Vlad got paid for what he did!

Has anybody confirmed it's not real? "I don't have to hit homers. They paid me for what I did. I did great. 48 homers once. Since they already paid me for what I did, if they want more they better pay me more" Is that what he is saying? Should we fund him additional money?

lol. This franchise is done! He apparently doesn't think he has to fix this because he already earned the money. What hope is there ever? Sean Keys, traded for garbage because he has no position Keys - .288 .388 .550 for Cleveland or someone, and 5 WAR Guerrero - .210 5 39 150 games playerd 500 at bats, 400 ground balls, 42 double players -2.6 WAR What is stopping that? He already earned the money. SHUT THIS FRANCHISE DOWN NOW!

This is a great thread, combines two very important concepts The clever wording 202? - yeah when exactly will baseball return? Playoff Tracker - when it returns will Jays be in any position to make the playoffs? Simple 6/15=0.4 tells us there chances are 40% when our knowledge is vague. But when you consider the players that will show up in ____ of 202? and how functional they are, will those odds decrease or increase?

1998 was so much more positive. 88 wins, and they didn't really every tie Boston for the Wild Card or anything. Just sort of hovered 4 games back in September and didn't make any progress after that. Delgado and Green learned steroids from Jose Canseco and took it to the next level. Shannon Stewart became a great lead off man. Roger Clemens was healthy all year and won a second consecutive Cy Young. There were lots of fun 10-8 losses when Clemens wasn't pitching. Dave Stieb revlieved Halladays first start, and caught the Bobby Higgenson hr to break up the no hitter in the Halladays second start. Tim Johnson told some great War stories. FYI despite the fact Clemens was a great trade chip, they did not make a great trade. Phrases to describe 98 - fun, homers, steroids, hit ball hard, 10-8, so close, see you next year, hopeful Phrases to describe 2026 - 640 runs, why can't they hit, this is Vlad at 27?, does Cease's shoulder even work anymore?

I'll move the playoff odds up 5% for each of Lowe, Suzuki, Stowers that are acquired. So if all 3 moves it from 40 to 55.

I'll be an optimist. June 2nd 2027 a bright sunny day cf batemen 2b lowe 1b Guerrero lf Suzuki dh Stowers 3b Okamota c Kirk rf Barger ss Giminez

Does anyone else think Sean Keys can contribute to a playoff run? I think so but he might just be converted to a similar but older player who can play the outfield in a pinch. Kyle Stowers seems like a good fit. Or do you think Keys needs to be DH in 2027. I would be happy with that, but for some reason get the feeling Jays 'win now' will just want a 28 year old version with some more outfield experience.

This is probably accurate. Cito got 4 years of basically this before getting fired. Schneider will only get 2 on account of Varsho not hitting a flyball. Fire John Schneider Sept 28th 2027 if this happens again. I mean it could be 2028 with the strike. Not unreasonable.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/1997.shtml I wonder if they'll beat the 97 Jays in runs scored? Could if they finish hot. I think I heard it will be the first time since maybe 79 Jays have come last in majors in runs scored... 97 Jays just beat out Cincinatti. 97 Jays were worse overall but got a bunch of young players (Delgado, Green, Cruz, Stewart) in there the last 2 months, all with OPS+ over 100. Team had 82 OPS+. Same numbers basically as 2026 Jays but in the middle of steroid era.

Just saying in a long winded way it's a cursed season and even the small enjoyable parts come with a kick in the nuts. Like the Batemen and Cease injuries. The 42.000 that will be there Sunday deserve to see Mad Max go 9 in a 6-2 win with 140 pitches and having a ball. They deserve a final Springer homerun. Life isn't fair though, we don't always get what we deserve.

When will we win our next division tile? When will we make the playoffs again? In the next 33 years will we win more division title than the previous 33 years (2) ?

What should we replace this thread with? The off-season thread? I already had one of my threads closed (the tank thread for 18th pick), and did that make anyone's life better? Was the board a happier place? I actually agreed though that thread could be closed because the Blue Jays had a brief 'fools gold' good 4 days. I was wrong. The tank thread should have stayed opened, as should this one. This is the playoff thread. Why should it be closed? Just because one year's playoff drive ended ? There will be another playoff drive, someday, first baseball has to be restarted first, and we don't know when that is, so the two issue's are related and can be discussed hand in hand,. And Jays potentially could be really screwed because of the new CBA. They have lots of money owed to Vladimir '9 homeruns' Guerrero and Dylan 'the tear is too small to see' Cease.. but lots of money in hand to potentially spend money to solve the problem of spending too much money. IF the greedy small market teams limit us somehow we'll never be able to spend our way out of this situation and be forced to watch Tampa Bay finish 35 games ahead of us a year forever.

Every smile needs to be turned upside down. The 3.4 million will be halved because of this and the strike, 1.7 million next full season. At least those with families will be able to get affordable tickets. And the 3.4 million this year must not be allowed any joy. They must not be allowed a final Mad Max start, 6 innings 2 runs, a cheerful goodbye. They must not be allowed this. So either they get Little/Dallas/Straw or Mad Max does go and gives up 5 runs in 1 and 1/3.