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Olerud363.354

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Everything posted by Olerud363.354

  1. Olerud363.354
    According to some free agent site for 2027 I looked at Jazz is a center field option because he played there in 2024 (though not since AFAICS).
  2. Olerud363.354
    His defense is now negative according to fangraphs. If healthy still be an overall big positive (3-4 WAR) as a player. However if you are willing to put a non-elite defender in center, would you open it up to Trent Grisham, and maybe even Jazz ?? Like just try to find a 2 WAR guy to put out there even if the defense is not elite. Like if Varsho projects say 2 WAR with good defense, but Grisham projects 2.2 WAR with better offense, but worse defense, do they open it up to that kind of player?
  3. Olerud363.354
    Jay Harry has played a bit of center field. He is hitting .320 this year. However only .245 still lifetime and not an amazing strike-out or walk rate or anything so not sure how much stock you put into this year. Then there is Bohofren and Arrias in New Hampshire. All 4 (Classe, Harry, Bohofren and Arrias) give or take have the same minor league lifetime stats. No idea if any of them can play center.
  4. Olerud363.354
    I demand .330 so to me Clase is just another failure already. I guess on a serious note Clase overall in the minors seems pretty mid, but not a guy I'd write off yet. Like not a terrible hitter. Also if I apply my "what do they know that I don't" logic, like I apply to draft picks who drop, the fact that Seattle traded him for a reliever is a flag? Like they are not going to trade an every day center fielder for 2 months of Yimi. On the other hand maybe no one knows and they traded a 35% chance of an everyday center fielder, so you have to work with him another year and see.
  5. Olerud363.354
    I just checked Clase's scouting report and nothing terrible there. This year everything is normal for him, except batting average down. I am a big batting average guy and reject my prospects unless they are hitting .330, but Blue Jays Message board doesn't in general love batting average as much as I do, so according to that philosophy the .225 this year is just noise. Not the greatest arm. Elite speed. Has a 70 sb season and a .257 .359 .430 minor league average. Actually same minor league numbers as Cedric Mullins. Currently same projections going forward as Cedric Mullins. His 75th percentile projection is probably Cedric Mullins at his average. His 97th percentile Projection is probably Cedric Mullins 2021, unlikely to hit that, but so would Cedric Mullins if he randomly replayed his career 20,000 times.
  6. Olerud363.354
    If Blue Jays Message Board is a "no" keep adding Boston Prospects until yes. What would be fair? If you think Boston would say no, add something to our side. Franklin Arrias is off the table. Player like that would never get traded except for Mike Trout 28 years old with 3+ years control. Clement/Gaussman/Schneider +???? for Mayer/Gonzales/Witherspoon + ????
  7. Olerud363.354
    They let Bichette go. They sent Schneider to the minors. They traded Loperfido. This organization doesn't have a huge amount of nostalgia. Well probably Atkins and Shapiro don't. I do get that Sportsnet and Rogers may not want the only all-star and most popular player traded. So maybe my idea won't happen. Clement/Gaussman/Schneider for Mayer/Gonzales/Witherspoon Boston - yes or no? Shaprio - yes Atkins - yes Hazel Mae - no Doug Ford - no Davis Schneider fan club - hell yes Blue Jays Message Board - ?
  8. Olerud363.354
    He's on the wrong side of 30. I know it would be unpopular but Clement, Gausman and Davis Schneider, for Marcello Mayer, Justin Gonzales and Kyson Wetherspoon. Boston gets - gritty players with deep playoff experience who can contribute to 5th world series title this century. Toronto gets - Hope in the form of a really good second best prospect (most teams say no-fn-way to the 1st prospect so aim for teams with good 3rd best prospects). Davis Schneider gets - an organization that won't send him to the minors and a wall to aim at. People think I'm joking but I'm not. Toronto playoff odds at now 10%, Boston 50%. Could be 80% and below 1 by the July 25th playoff series, and players should cross the field then.
  9. Olerud363.354
    There is an obvious match with Boston. Help Boston get their 5th World Series of the century, and in return have hope for 2028 and beyond. Also get Davis Schneider and Ernie Celement good homes. To Boston - Schneider, Clement, Gausman Not sure what the injury story is with Story, Early and Saurez, but all on DL. Franklin Arriaz is a super-prospect so don't even think of it. But maybe a package centered around Justin Gonzales, Marcello Mayer, and a pitching prospect. These trades are always hard to configure, and you only know you got it right if both sides say it's crazy (like the Boston side will over-rate Gonzales and Mayer's chance for rehabilitation, and Jays side will over-rate their players). I think there is a match there. What would you ask for from Boston for those 3?? If you think it takes Arrias say so, but I think he's untouchable and need to go to their 3-10 prospect list, and salvage projects.
  10. Olerud363.354
    1. Clase. 2. Harry. 3. Jace Bohofren. 4. Arrias the latter two are in double a, but you move them to Buffalo and if both the first two get injured or something call them up. For 2028? That is a problem to be solved after the strike/lockout.
  11. Olerud363.354
    Playoff odds are 10% on bbref and 20% on fangraphs now 4th worst in the AL. They just blew an easy part of the schedule and are heading into a much tougher one. They are the worst positioned of 6 teams fighting for 1 spot. Fangraphs for some reason gives them slightly better then 1 in 6. BBREF slightly worse. Playoff odds will be below 5% BEFORE the next Boston Series, and < 0.1 after it. I'd start firesale before that, but after getting destroyed by St. Louise and Tampa, they can concentrate on across the field trades with Boston during that series. Get Davis Schneider in Boston before that series, they will love him there and appreciate his talents. Sell early sell often. They are already sent the friendship down to Buffalo. Gausman, Corbin, Scherzer, Springer, Straw, Varsho, Schneider, Lukes, Clement, Giminez if any one will take him. Hoffman, Rogers Little, Bieber. Crazy but.. 1. Hopeless team and the magic is gone 2. Best sellers market in generations 3. Likely no 2027 so play for 2028
  12. Olerud363.354
    He's already projected to have the same on base as Varsho and Straw. Though point still valid. Carrying full time players with a .290 on base percentage isn't ideal. Be fun to see him play for the rest of the year. I feel like rule of thumb is minor league stats are a ceiling. Like he's not going to have a .400 on base percentage, but maybe it could be .335 if he reaches his positive projection.
  13. Olerud363.354
    Clase is .257 .349 .433 minors, .230 .302 .345 majors projected about that .230 .290 .350 or so Straw is ..293 .380 .370 minors, .246 .314 .317 majors, projected .230 .295 .320 or so Varsho is .296 .365 .519 minors .228 .297 .435 majors projected .230 .295 .410 or so. Varsho still projects best. Not sure about defense. Clase is fast I think.
  14. Olerud363.354
    Thanks for telling me what I don't quite get. No where did I say the Jays have any type of scouting failure here. I'm just skeptical that there getting some elite player with pick 100. Just as I was skeptical they were getting a good deal on Bieber. Just as I was skeptical that they were getting a 1/1 with Austin Martin. And I'm not accusing you personally of being over-optimistic in any of these cases, but in all three you hear over-optimistic takes, whether it is twitter or here. Like Bieber there was all this ******** about friendship, with Austin Martin there was talk that he was a great pure hitter and a 1/1 talent (again nor from you personally). This catcher I heard somewhere was an elite first round talent. The reverse is also often true. Like if next year Jays take a guy with their 7th pick (or whatever it ends up) that was projected 50, and everyone freaked out, I'd be the opposite. Something there good we don't know about yet. If Jays give Daulton Varsho the qualifying offer after a 1.5 WAR year, not a disaster, likely something still there they like.
  15. Olerud363.354
    This place is insufferable. No one is making s*** up. It's like people here have never lived in the real world. I thought I was the only in my parent's basement. It's like you all have no experience with anything in business or stock trading or statistics or buying a used car or anything. If the price falls then something is going on. That's just life. If something seems to be too good to be true it probably is. If you get something for cheap, you didn't get it for cheap you got it for the right price. Not saying this guy will be a complete failure or anything, just that on average these things aren't going to be an amazing deal. Reminds me of when Beiber took his option. Most people were thrilled but the suspicious were right. They mostly (but not always) are.
  16. Olerud363.354
    2 WAR guy now with terrible batted ball data. I guess it depends on his second half.
  17. Olerud363.354
    I don't think this is true at all. If a guy hits .300 .400 .500 over any sample size and age appropriate level he's a guy. Interestingly we are now seeing two types of hitters, high bat speed high EV hitters, and low bat speed low EV hitters with elite contact succeed. The latter group is interesting. McGonigle, Horwitz, Luis Arraez, Clement and a few others. Not triple crown threats, but above average hitters with way below average bat speed and exit velocity. Likely cases will exist between the two extremes and this will muck up trying to evaluate them with underlying metrics. Of course if their underlying metrics all suck, bad EVs, bad contact, then their stat line is a fluke. But some guy with average EV, average contact rates, launch angle optimized, could be a legit good hitter.
  18. Olerud363.354
    Parker is hitting about the same as Vlad and Bo did on balls in play. He hits the ball hard, just like they did, but hits .240 because he strikes out a lot more than they did. It's hard to hit .300 .400 .500 and have bad underlying stats. It doesn't happen. Either you hit .300 .400 .500 because you hit the ball hard and take balls, or because you have elite hand eye and contact rates with mediocre exit V. Or somewhere in between. Kevin McGonigle sucks at hitting the ball hard, the information you need to know about is in his .300 .400 .500.
  19. Olerud363.354
    Paul Dejong was sort of like Biggio but more tools I guess. College guy, who was pretty intriguing but never put it together. I feel like good outcome for Nimmala and Parker are Dejong and Biggio but with an earlier start, more athleticism and a longer good stretch. Don't mean that as an insult. Jays 50 question. Who are the top 5 position players the Blue Jays have drafted or signed? Top 5 WAR for all teams they played for. Probably missing someone obvious. 1. Olerud 58 fWAR - 2. Jeff Kent? 50 fWAR - 2. Delgado 45 fWAR - 3 Fernandex 40ish fWAR ? 4 Wells/Barfield ??
  20. Olerud363.354
    We are not talking about a random stretch. We are talking about the first 6 weeks when that is all the data you have. Two different statistical problems 1. If a guy hits bad for 100 at bats, after having 500 good ones how do you project his next 500 at bats? Use the 600 you now have. 2. If a guy hits bad for 100 at bats how do you project his next 500 if you only have those bad 100? Use the bad 100 with high variance of course. Let's say there is a 10% chance a guy sucks randomly for a 100 at bat stretch. If you all you have is 100 bad at bats there is a 10% chance it was a fluke but a 90% chance it is real. If you have 1000 at bats, there is very likely a bad 100 in there.
  21. Olerud363.354
    Sell everyone not here for 2028 too. Including Rogers (here for 2028 but assume no 2027). Sell Straw. Sell the friendship. Sell the memories. Sell it all. It's sad and brutal but such is life.
  22. Olerud363.354
    They are 6th of 7th in a 7 team race with a 10% chance of making the playoffs according to playoff odds. You can do this on a napkin. If all was even 1/7 chance, but it's not even they are already in the hole with only 65 games to go. So knock a bit off the 1/7 and make 1/10. This is completely different then 2.5 games behind one team. Sell early. Get as much as you can. Get Davis Schneider on a team that appreciates him, get Ernie Clement on a team where he can have fun, get Hoffman a fresh start. Get Gausman some playoff starts. Get Springer another chance at a legacy moment. Get the Red Sox and Orioles some help and hope for a lock out for a reset, see you in 2028.
  23. Olerud363.354
    Always reminds me of Austin Martin. If a guy falls it is because the other teams scouting reports weren't good so adjust expectations accordingly.
  24. Olerud363.354
    I guess the formula assumes direction is random. 350 foot 95 mile per hour pulled fly balls, while valuable in real life, are not valuable in the formula because it is assumed it is not repeatable. Vlad's 106 mph 390 foot fly balls to center with bad spin, while worthless in real life are worth quite a bit, again because the formula assumes direction is random. For the most part the formula is right and it evens out, but I think there are real cases of directionally challenged or directionally talented individuals. It's not a huge effect but there are cases where guys out-perform or under-perform because of direction.
  25. Olerud363.354
    Discussing the rules about politics is not politics. I think we should use the all star break to have a 4 day discussion about how to police the board for politics with examples of what is appropriate and not.
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