How Will the Blue Jays Navigate Mad Max: Injury Road?

All of our preseason talk and excitement surrounding the signing of future Hall of Famer (we’re contractually obligated to refer to his impending enshrinement in Cooperstown at least once per article) Max Scherzer came with the caveat “if healthy.” Well, if healthy lasted 45 pitches into his debut start. If we’re being honest, if healthy didn’t even make it to the start of the season. During spring training, Scherzer had an MRI to look into a thumb issue that caused him to miss his last scheduled start. At the time, it was noted that while there wasn’t nerve involvement, the thumb was connected to the injuries that plagued Scherzer’s last two years in Texas. Ahead of his debut start, manager John Schneider told reporters Scherzer would end up around 80 pitches, saying and “He’s been rip-roaring, ready to go. Mad Max, engaged.”

Two pitches into that debut, Colton Cowser was rounding the bases after putting a four-seam fastball over the wall in straight-away centre. Ten pitches after that, it was Jordan Westburg driving a slider 434 into the seats. The second and third innings were less eventful, with the Orioles going three-up, three-down. But upon his return to the dugout after that third inning, it was clear that was all the Mad Max we were going to see. After the game it was revealed that Scherzer had felt lat tightness during warmups but tried to pitch through it. Given that it ended with a trip to the IL (officially with right thumb inflammation). Maybe pitching through it wasn’t the right approach. Maybe the IL trip was going to happen no matter what action Scherzer and the Jays took on Saturday. Now all we can do is look forward.

The first question is: Who fills Scherzer’s spot in the rotation? Before the season, we kind of assumed that when anyone in the starting rotation missed time, Yariel Rodríguez would be the first to jump into the spot. After his relief appearances so far (particularly in earning the hold on Sunday) it seemed there might be some hesitancy to bounce him around. In comments to reporters, John Schnieider has tipped either Rodríguez or Easton Lucas to make the start this coming Friday, depending on “where we land after the next couple games.” Bowden Francis, José Berríos, and Kevin Gausman are the expected starters for the three-game set against Washington before an off-day Thursday, then a 10-game road trip through New York (Mets), Boston, and Baltimore.

I haven’t seen this suggested yet, but after the Jays see where they land, the off-day on April 3 could be treated as Scherzer’s day. The team could then go with Chris Bassitt and Francis for the first two games on the road. The last game of that road trip coincides with Scherzer’s (current) last day on the IL. 

As with many dynamic situations, new information continues to roll in. We've gone from Schneider touting Rodríguez or Lucas for Friday's start to now saying, according to Keegan Matheson, that Lucas pitching on Wednesday (at home against Washington) is "Plan A." He left open the possibility for more change depending on how Tuesday evening's game shakes out.

So that makes it Berríos on Tuesday and Lucas on Wednesday. Kevin Gausman will take the Mets home opener at Citi Field to shield the less experienced Lucas from what could be an intimidating environment.

So what does the bullpen look like now? Through the opening series with Baltimore, the 'pen was counted on to throw 16 innings and just over 300 pitches. Richard Lovelady’s 1 2/3 innings and 46 pitches have already been DFA’d. Lucas joins the team with another lefty, Mason Fluharty. Simon Li has a great introduction to the two new arms here. They join Jacob Barnes, Yimi García, Chad Green, Jeff Hoffman, Brendon Little, and Nick Sandlin, all of whom have been a mix of solid, serviceable, and just enough this side of Lovelady to keep their spot through four games. 

As we’ve already seen, a lot can change in the course of just one series. As more information comes in and more games are played, there could be a few more permutations in the rotation and the 'pen. One silver lining amongst all the early concern, though, is that the organization seems to be willing to make early moves.