How Should the Blue Jays Rotation Line Up for the ALDS?

With the number of pitching pieces Toronto has, it can feel like a little bit of a puzzle trying to put them together in the optimal order. Of course, a puzzle usually only has one correct way to solve it. Maybe this Jays rotation is more like a task on Taskmaster: an opportunity for some lateral thinking and unconventional solutions.

In a press conference on Friday afternoon, when asked if he prepares differently for a best-of-five versus a best-of-three series, manager John Schneider responded, "You can get a little bit creative, and that’s what we’re working through now.” He also noted that it was "all hands on deck" for each game in terms of managing to win, so let’s go through the pieces I think we’re working with and see where he might fit them.

Kevin Gausman: Our Starter of the Year gets Game 1 and (if necessary) probably Game 5. John Schneider confirmed Gausman for the first game, but made no commitment to future games for Gausman or the rest of the staff. No reason to get overly cute here (we can save that for the middle games). He’s the best pitcher we have, and when he’s on his game, he’s as good as anybody left in the playoffs. With off days on Monday and Thursday, spreading a (potential) five-game series out over seven days, a Game 5 start is easily in play. Ultimately, we hope Toronto wins the series earlier, so we won't sweat Game 5 too much yet, but we've locked Gausman into Game 1.

Shane Bieber: When the Blue Jays traded for Bieber on deadline day, we immediately started thinking about where he would slot into the playoff rotation. After his debut start with Toronto, we were already starting to pencil him in as a potential Game 1 starter, but at this point, he’s probably the best call for Game 2. He’s come back down to earth a little since, but the key to his start is going to be his efficiency. He averaged just over four pitches per batter and flirted with 100 pitches per game during the regular season, but has yet to cross that threshold with the Jays. The deeper into a game he can go, the less Schneider will need to depend on his bullpen.

Bullpen Game: Speaking of that bullpen... After their perfect start to a must-win game down the stretch, there has to be a real conversation about a three-headed monster of Louis Varland, Eric Lauer and Yariel Rodríguez. In their last ‘start,’ those three went six innings of no-hit, shutout baseball while striking out six. The lefty/righty mix also has the potential to cause some fits depending on how New York chooses to line up. The Yankees skewed their handedness matchups in the first two games of the Wild Card series, first against lefty Garrett Crochet (6 RHB started) and then against righty Brayan Bello (6 LHB started). For Game 3 (against lefty starter Connor Early), they went more balanced (5 LHB/4 RHB). The tricky thing with a bullpen game is how that changes the availability of guys out of the 'pen for the other games in the series. Taking that into consideration, and given the extra off days, Game 2 or 4 seems like the best time to go this route. Zooming out slightly, Game 2 feels too early for a fully rested staff to pitch by committee, but I’m not sure that a potential elimination game on the road is the place for it either. Let’s stick a pin in this one.

Chris Bassitt: Bassitt ended the season on the IL but is eligible to return for this series. His multifarious pitch mix can keep hitters off balance and has led him to have one of the lowest average exit velocities and hard-hit rates of the qualified pitchers we are discussing today (only Yariel Rodríguez was better in either category). Bassitt is also a vet; at 36 years old, and with 11 years in the league, he has proven his steadiness. A hostile road crowd is unlikely to impact his performance, so he seems like a decent candidate to pitch Game 3 or 4. But wait! Let’s take a quick look at his home/away splits… Bassitt made 32 starts this year, 16 on the road and 16 at Rogers Centre. At home, he boasted an 8-0 record with a 2.71 ERA, but outside of Toronto, he went 3-9 with a 5.47 ERA. “Wins and ERA are terrible ways to evaluate a pitcher!” I hear you yelling. His FIP splits bring things closer, but he was still more than a full run worse on the road (3.48 vs 4.65). So maybe the road start isn’t the way to go, but with Gausman taking Games 1 and 5, that only leaves Game 2 as a home option. 

Trey Yesavage: The electric wonderboy has only thrown 14 innings at the major league level, but as we saw with the deciding game in the BOS/NYY Wild Card series, some rookie pitchers seem built for the spotlight. Yesavage has a splitter for the lefties and a slider for the righties, combined with a fastball that is league average for speed, but above average for rise, leading him to get the most whiffs in a game by any Blue Jays pitcher not named Gausman this season. Still, throwing a rookie into Yankee Stadium to start a playoff game, depending on the results of the previous games, might be too big of an ask. By my count, we’re now at three potential Game 2 starters (plus a bullpen option) and no one that I’m settled on to pitch on the road.

Max Scherzer: Without question, Mad Max is going to want to start a game in this series. We all know the resume: three Cy Youngs, two World Series, future Hall of Famer and a gameday mentality strong enough that when Eric Lauer deadpanned he had been punched in the face by Scherzer for breaking his pre-game concentration, we weren’t immediately sure it was a joke. Scherzer, I 100% believe, would be unaffected by a rowdy crowd in the Bronx. Of course, the problem with Scherzer is that he’s given up four or more earned runs in five of his last six starts. Can we trust a start to the guy that couldn’t get out of the first inning in Kansas City less than two weeks ago? It’s also worth noting that it was facing the Yankees when Scherzer’s pitch tipping was first publicly discussed. Is there a chance that this was all part of some long con to set the Yankees up for a playoff masterclass from the wily vet, or have I just watched too many heist movies? Let’s pencil Max in for Game 4, and then erase it, and then lightly pencil it in again. Maybe the Jays just go out and win the first three games and we don’t have to sweat it until the next round.

So there we have it. Six options for five games, and I’m pretty confident that Gausman gets two of five. I’ve cycled through a lot of options in my head this week, and I might have a different answer the second I hit ‘publish’ and every hour after that, but right now, here’s what I would do:

• Game 1: Gausman
• Game 2: Bassitt
• Game 3: Bieber
• Game 4: Yesavage
• Game 5: Gausman

No Scherzer, and no bullpen game. I believe in Bassitt’s home splits, and if he struggles, I’m confident in Lauer, Varland, Rodríguez and almost every other arm in the bullpen coming in with an off-day the next day. I like the way our bullpen matches up, and I think with this mix of starters, Schneider can utilize them all effectively. All the Blue Jays have gotta do now is go out there and win some games. They don't have to officially announce their roster until tomorrow morning, and when they do, we'll have some more clues.