Mike LeSage

The Blue Jays have won their first playoff game in almost a decade, and it couldn’t have been scripted any better than the way it played out. Every Jays starter had a hit, drove in a run, or scored. The pitchers were all efficient and limited the damage to just one run and six hits against a potent Yankees lineup. The game ended 10-1, but there were some big plays that swung the pendulum more than others. Using FanGraphs Win Probability Added, the biggest plays were as follows. +10.6% WPA - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers in the first inning. Vladdy’s three hits yesterday doubled his career playoff total, but none were bigger than his first-inning home run to open the scoring. The face of the franchise had been struggling throughout September, but a week off and a calendar flip to October have Guerrero Jr. looking like the cornerstone we love. +9.4% WPA - Alejandro Kirk homers in the second inning. I was going to limit this recap to the plays that generated at least a 10% swing, but I couldn’t leave this Kirk home run out. Following in Vladdy’s footsteps, we have another Jay hitting his first career postseason dinger. This home run, while early in the game and only giving the Jays a two-run lead, pushed their overall win probability over 75% -10.1% WPA - Austin Wells singles in the sixth inning and moves Anthony Volpe to 3B. With none out in the sixth, Wells' hit put runners on the corners and the go-ahead run at the plate. It was a time for Jays fans to hold their breath a little more than usual. +10.4% WPA - Kevin Gausman strikes out Aaron Judge. Gausman induced 12 swing and misses in yesterday's game, but the two whiffs by Judge in this at-bat, with the bases loaded and none out, were beyond huge. In post-game remarks, Gausman said he wasn’t afraid to walk Judge in this spot, because he could only hurt them for one run. For his part, Judge was clearly thinking Gausman would challenge him more and be in the zone. Instead, Gausman threw a perfect splitter, down and away, and all Judge could do was weakly wave at it. -13.4% WPA - Kevin Gausman walks Cody Bellinger. The walk that Gausman wasn’t afraid to issue to Judge ends up going to Bellinger in the next at-bat. With the bases still loaded and just the one out, the Yankees seemed poised to do some damage. The walk brought the Jays' win expectancy down to 50.3%, a coin toss, and the lowest it had been since the first inning. +12.1% WPA - Ben Rice pops out with the infield fly rule in effect. The last batter Gausman would face popped out and had the Jays on the verge of escaping the inning with the lead intact and the damage limited. +12% WPA - Louis Varland strikes out Giancarlo Stanton to end the sixth inning. Varland entered the game for the largest leverage at bat of the game and got Stanton to strike out on a 101 MPH fastball - the fastest pitch of the game. It also marked four straight at-bats with win percentage swings of over 10% and was the fifth one of the inning. As great as all the runs scored by the Jays were, this stretch of at-bats was the clear pivot point of the game, and Gausman and Varland were at their best. The Jays would go on to add eight more runs from this point. Four in each of the seventh and eighth innings. A second home run for Kirk, Nathan Lukes with 3 RBI, 17 at bats over the two innings, and perhaps most importantly: burning through the Yankees’ bullpen. Sticking with a win probability viewpoint, both stars, Gausman, Guerrero, and Seranthony Domínguez were responsible for 10% WPA each over the course of the game, but just edging them out is Varland at 11%. Louis Varland is the high-leverage king of Toronto. Who might we see step up for Game 2? Blue Jays Bullpen Usage TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Yesavage 0 0 0 0 0 0 Varland 0 0 0 0 16 16 Little 0 0 0 0 14 14 S. Domínguez 0 0 0 0 7 7 Lauer 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hoffman 0 0 0 0 17 17 Rodriguez 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fluharty 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bruihl 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

Wasn't what I expected, but I don't hate it. Especially if (when!) we sweep them!

So much is going to depend on the outcomes of the games beforehand too. Going to NY up 2-0 is a lot different than going there with a split (or worse). I liked Schneider's comments today though - he didn’t quite commit to selling out for the win in each game, but I got the feeling they're not going to leave someone in the pen they 'might need tomorrow' if they're the right move for the moment.

With the number of pitching pieces Toronto has, it can feel like a little bit of a puzzle trying to put them together in the optimal order. Of course, a puzzle usually only has one correct way to solve it. Maybe this Jays rotation is more like a task on Taskmaster: an opportunity for some lateral thinking and unconventional solutions. In a press conference on Friday afternoon, when asked if he prepares differently for a best-of-five versus a best-of-three series, manager John Schneider responded, "You can get a little bit creative, and that’s what we’re working through now.” He also noted that it was "all hands on deck" for each game in terms of managing to win, so let’s go through the pieces I think we’re working with and see where he might fit them. Kevin Gausman: Our Starter of the Year gets Game 1 and (if necessary) probably Game 5. John Schneider confirmed Gausman for the first game, but made no commitment to future games for Gausman or the rest of the staff. No reason to get overly cute here (we can save that for the middle games). He’s the best pitcher we have, and when he’s on his game, he’s as good as anybody left in the playoffs. With off days on Monday and Thursday, spreading a (potential) five-game series out over seven days, a Game 5 start is easily in play. Ultimately, we hope Toronto wins the series earlier, so we won't sweat Game 5 too much yet, but we've locked Gausman into Game 1. Shane Bieber: When the Blue Jays traded for Bieber on deadline day, we immediately started thinking about where he would slot into the playoff rotation. After his debut start with Toronto, we were already starting to pencil him in as a potential Game 1 starter, but at this point, he’s probably the best call for Game 2. He’s come back down to earth a little since, but the key to his start is going to be his efficiency. He averaged just over four pitches per batter and flirted with 100 pitches per game during the regular season, but has yet to cross that threshold with the Jays. The deeper into a game he can go, the less Schneider will need to depend on his bullpen. Bullpen Game: Speaking of that bullpen... After their perfect start to a must-win game down the stretch, there has to be a real conversation about a three-headed monster of Louis Varland, Eric Lauer and Yariel Rodríguez. In their last ‘start,’ those three went six innings of no-hit, shutout baseball while striking out six. The lefty/righty mix also has the potential to cause some fits depending on how New York chooses to line up. The Yankees skewed their handedness matchups in the first two games of the Wild Card series, first against lefty Garrett Crochet (6 RHB started) and then against righty Brayan Bello (6 LHB started). For Game 3 (against lefty starter Connor Early), they went more balanced (5 LHB/4 RHB). The tricky thing with a bullpen game is how that changes the availability of guys out of the 'pen for the other games in the series. Taking that into consideration, and given the extra off days, Game 2 or 4 seems like the best time to go this route. Zooming out slightly, Game 2 feels too early for a fully rested staff to pitch by committee, but I’m not sure that a potential elimination game on the road is the place for it either. Let’s stick a pin in this one. Chris Bassitt: Bassitt ended the season on the IL but is eligible to return for this series. His multifarious pitch mix can keep hitters off balance and has led him to have one of the lowest average exit velocities and hard-hit rates of the qualified pitchers we are discussing today (only Yariel Rodríguez was better in either category). Bassitt is also a vet; at 36 years old, and with 11 years in the league, he has proven his steadiness. A hostile road crowd is unlikely to impact his performance, so he seems like a decent candidate to pitch Game 3 or 4. But wait! Let’s take a quick look at his home/away splits… Bassitt made 32 starts this year, 16 on the road and 16 at Rogers Centre. At home, he boasted an 8-0 record with a 2.71 ERA, but outside of Toronto, he went 3-9 with a 5.47 ERA. “Wins and ERA are terrible ways to evaluate a pitcher!” I hear you yelling. His FIP splits bring things closer, but he was still more than a full run worse on the road (3.48 vs 4.65). So maybe the road start isn’t the way to go, but with Gausman taking Games 1 and 5, that only leaves Game 2 as a home option. Trey Yesavage: The electric wonderboy has only thrown 14 innings at the major league level, but as we saw with the deciding game in the BOS/NYY Wild Card series, some rookie pitchers seem built for the spotlight. Yesavage has a splitter for the lefties and a slider for the righties, combined with a fastball that is league average for speed, but above average for rise, leading him to get the most whiffs in a game by any Blue Jays pitcher not named Gausman this season. Still, throwing a rookie into Yankee Stadium to start a playoff game, depending on the results of the previous games, might be too big of an ask. By my count, we’re now at three potential Game 2 starters (plus a bullpen option) and no one that I’m settled on to pitch on the road. Max Scherzer: Without question, Mad Max is going to want to start a game in this series. We all know the resume: three Cy Youngs, two World Series, future Hall of Famer and a gameday mentality strong enough that when Eric Lauer deadpanned he had been punched in the face by Scherzer for breaking his pre-game concentration, we weren’t immediately sure it was a joke. Scherzer, I 100% believe, would be unaffected by a rowdy crowd in the Bronx. Of course, the problem with Scherzer is that he’s given up four or more earned runs in five of his last six starts. Can we trust a start to the guy that couldn’t get out of the first inning in Kansas City less than two weeks ago? It’s also worth noting that it was facing the Yankees when Scherzer’s pitch tipping was first publicly discussed. Is there a chance that this was all part of some long con to set the Yankees up for a playoff masterclass from the wily vet, or have I just watched too many heist movies? Let’s pencil Max in for Game 4, and then erase it, and then lightly pencil it in again. Maybe the Jays just go out and win the first three games and we don’t have to sweat it until the next round. So there we have it. Six options for five games, and I’m pretty confident that Gausman gets two of five. I’ve cycled through a lot of options in my head this week, and I might have a different answer the second I hit ‘publish’ and every hour after that, but right now, here’s what I would do: Game 1: Gausman Game 2: Bassitt Game 3: Bieber Game 4: Yesavage Game 5: Gausman No Scherzer, and no bullpen game. I believe in Bassitt’s home splits, and if he struggles, I’m confident in Lauer, Varland, Rodríguez and almost every other arm in the bullpen coming in with an off-day the next day. I like the way our bullpen matches up, and I think with this mix of starters, Schneider can utilize them all effectively. All the Blue Jays have gotta do now is go out there and win some games. They don't have to officially announce their roster until tomorrow morning, and when they do, we'll have some more clues. View full article

Love that Lauer appears on both the Starter and Reliever of the Year lists. What a gem!

The Blue Jays starters as a group didn’t have the flashiest season. In fact, at times, they outright struggled. They ranked 20th in ERA (4.34), 24th in FIP (4.46) and 23rd in fWAR (8.5) over 162 games. Of the playoff-bound teams, only the Dodgers' starters earned fewer wins (LAD had 49 to TOR’s 50), while the Yankees, by comparison, finished with 16 more wins from their starters, leading the league with 66. Wins are an admittedly flawed stat to judge a pitcher with, but they help tell part of the story. If the story is told in chapters, we can look at our very own Pitcher of the Month awards to gain some perspective. I went back through our previous rankings and assigned a points system to them: the #1 spot was worth 5 points, #2 got 4 points, and so on down to the honourable mentions that earned one point apiece. So, using Max Scherzer as an example, he received honourable mentions in June and July to go along with a #2 finish in August for a season total of 6, which (spoiler alert) is fewer than the pitchers I have ranked above him. It’s not a perfect system, but maybe in a few years we’ll see some other publications start to use the JCPOTMST (Jays Centre Pitcher of the Month Season Total) as an evaluation tool (though we’ll probably tweak the acronym before then). The Honourable Mentions Our eventual winner should come as no surprise, and we’ll get to him in a minute, but there were some other starters that had seasons worthy of note. José Berríos didn’t have his best season as a Blue Jay. The Opening Day starter notched his 100th win in April, but accumulated only nine over the season - his lowest total in a full season here. Interestingly, Berríos has given up exactly 77 earned runs in each of the last three seasons. This year, however, he gave up those 77 in his fewest innings pitched (166), leaving him with an ERA of 4.17. His struggles led to a late-season move to the bullpen, marking the first time he has pitched out of the 'pen in his career. That was quickly followed by an IL stint (also a career first) that ended his season. While there were undoubtedly valleys to Berríos’ season, there were also peaks. His two best starts of the year came in back-to-back June appearances with wins over the Sox (both White and Red) in which he combined to throw 14.2 innings, striking out 13 batters while only surrendering six hits and zero earned runs. That propelled him to be our June PotM and gave him a season score of 7 (he also had a fourth-place finish in May). Eric Lauer started 15 games for the Jays in addition to making 13 appearances in relief. Surely the surprise of the season, Lauer has done everything asked of him and more. From June 11 until the end of August, he was exclusively a starter and went 6-1. His eight-inning win over the Tigers in late July was likely the best showing of his season and helped him earn Pitcher of the Month honours that month. His season score of 8 puts him in the company of names we never would have expected to see him with, and his bWAR of 2.2 was second-best of all pitchers on the team. It’s incredible to think where the Jays might have landed without Lauer’s presence this year. Chris Bassitt also turned in a bit of an unexpected season. Going into a contract year at age 36, there wasn’t a ton of external pressure on Bassitt. Especially with the Scherzer signing, Bassitt was expected to slot into the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation and just be a steady hand. Instead, he improved on his 2024 season by almost every metric. By fWAR, his 2.4 was second-best on the staff, and his 170.1 innings pitched were second-highest too. When the bullpen needed a rest, he was there. He even came out of the 'pen for one game against the Athletics when the relievers were especially taxed. That relief appearance came just days after Bassitt pitched a (rain-shortened) complete game against the White Sox in Chicago, earning the win. Like Berríos, Bassitt had his struggles, especially down the stretch. His last win came on July 23, and he went 0-5 across 10 starts after that, ending his season on the 15-day IL with lower back inflammation. He was the first-ever Jays Centre PotM and followed that up with an honourable mention and a third-place spot later in the year for a season score of 9 (tied for best on the team). Jays Centre's Starter of the Year Who could it be but Kevin Gausman? He was May’s PotM, a month that saw him run a streak of 119 batters without issuing a walk. When we were looking for an ace to lead the rotation, he was the first guy we always looked to. By Baseball Reference’s version of WAR, this was his best season as a Blue Jay with a 3.8 (FanGraphs has him at a 4.1, but that's one win less than his ‘22 and ‘23 seasons). In September, Gausman made not only his best start of the season, but the best start of his career in a complete game shutout of the (at the time) playoff-hopeful Houston Astros. His 193 innings pitched were a career high and led the team. He also led the team in strikeouts (189), FIP (3.42), WPA (1.49) and a number of other stats. He’s unanimously expected to be the Game 1 starter of the ALDS, no matter who Toronto faces – I even included a Gausman section in our ALDS preview! He loves the city, and we love him back. He’s our Starter of the Year. View full article

They made us wait until Game 162 before making it official, but the Toronto Blue Jays are the American League Champions. With the number one seed, they have given themselves homefield advantage and a bye directly to the ALDS. They await either the New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox. We can argue the merits of the way MLB organizes its brackets, so that the one-seeded Jays will face either the #2 or #4 team (by record) in the League, but that’s long been the way the Jays have been forced to live in the AL East. Fittingly, the path out of the East goes through Toronto this year. Interestingly, Toronto has never faced the Yankees or Red Sox in the playoffs. So let’s take a look at those two rivals and see if there is one we’d rather face. Team: New York Yankees Record: 94-68 Record Against Toronto: 5-8 (1-6 at Rogers Centre) Top Hitters (fWAR): Aaron Judge (10.1), Cody Bellinger (4.9), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (4.4) Judge is 6-for-23 (.261) in 35 plate appearances with zero home runs and 0 RBI against current Jays pitchers. His home runs came against Chris Bassitt (x2) and Yimi García - both currently on the IL. Bassitt is, of course, eligible to come off the IL and may find himself as the starter in Game 3 or 4, so it is not a matchup to ignore. Bellinger hit .298 against Toronto this year with a pair of homers (Scherzer and Fluhart,y) with his best performances coming at Rogers Centre. Chisholm Jr. did the majority of his damage against Toronto in a pair of Scherzer starts (2 for 4 with 2 HRs and 5 RBI). Top Pitchers (fWAR): Max Fried (4.8), Carlos Rodon (3.2), Will Warren (2.1) Fried went 2-1 against the Jays this season, but posted an ERA just over four in four games and was responsible for the Canada Day homers surrendered to George Springer and Andrés Giménez. Rodón only faced the Jays twice, taking a loss and a no-decision. He only lasted five innings in each outing and held a WHIP of 1.9. Alejandro Kirk was 2-for-5 with a pair of doubles against Rodón. Warren only faced the Jays once and gave up 10 hits and eight earned runs in four innings - wouldn’t we love to see that again? Kevin Gausman against them: Gausman faced the Yankees four times this season, going 2-1. In his first start, he lacked the command we expect from our ace, and he didn’t make it out of the 3rd inning, walking five and giving up three hits to go along with six earned runs. His last two starts were much more in line with vintage Gausman: 15 combined innings and only allowing one earned run each game (both times a solo shot for Giancarlo Stanton). Team: Boston Red Sox Record: 89-73 Record Against Toronto: 5-8 (4-3 at Rogers Centre) Top Hitters (fWAR): Jarren Duran (3.8), Ceddanne Rafaela (3.6), Alex Bregman (3.5) Duran’s only home run against the Jays came against Bowden Franci, and otherwise he’s hit .240 against the Jays this season. Most notably, he has been hit twice (Hoffman and Heineman), so we may need to look for him crowding the plate in late innings. Rafaela’s only homer against Toronto came off Paxton Schultz, and his two hits against Scherzer are the most given up by any Jay. Over the season, Rafaela hit .231 in 39 ABs against the Jays. Bregman had a 3-for-5 day against Bowden Francis early in the season, but struggled overall against the Jays. He hit .205 on the season against Toronto, and in the series here last week, we went 1-for-11 across the three games played. Top Pitchers (fWAR): Garrett Crochet (5.8), Aroldis Chapman (2.6), Garrett Whitlock (2.2) Crochet is probably the pitcher on both teams I would least like to see again. He faced the Jays three times this season and got better with each start, culminating in an eight-inning, three-hit, dominant performance at Rogers Centre last week. Similarly, Chapman has not had many issues with the Blue Jays' bats he has faced this season. In five appearances, totaling five innings of work, he has not allowed a run and has only given up two hits, against seven strikeouts. Whitlock also has only five innings of work against the Jays this year, and they were able to get to him once for three earned runs, giving him a 5.40 ERA against Toronto. However, in his other three appearances, he allowed zero runs, gave up one hit, and struck out five batters. Kevin Gausman against them: Gausman only made two starts against the Red Sox and was a real mixed bag. In his first outing, he pitched one of his best games of the season, going eight innings and striking out 10 batters against four hits and zero earned runs. His more recent start against them saw Gausman getting touched up on his third time through the order and taking the loss after giving up four runs. So who do we want? We’ve seen how quickly things can change over the course of a week, and whoever comes out of the Wild Card round will have just beaten a very good opponent. The Yankees are on a hot streak to close out the regular season, going 9-1 down the stretch. The Red Sox at 6-4 are much closer to the Jays own 5-5 in their last ten. The Yankees’ bats are more fearsome, but the Boston pitching has given Toronto more fits. Boston is the better defensive team, with a fielding run value of +22, compared to the Yankees’ +7 (the Jays lead the League with a +45). Ultimately, I think I’d rather take my chances with Boston, but really, I just want every game of the Wild Card series to go to extra innings and whoever makes their way up here to be tired as hell. View full article

I'm interested to see what players and teams are bad at using the ABS system and squander their challenges. Like, will there be certain hitters that the team(s) tell to stop challenging? The pitching/catching tandem will at least have a second to (even wordlessly) communicate with each other before making a challenge, but will the hitter have time to look to their dugout or elsewhere? I'm in favour of the system, but I'm also excited to see what new chaos it brings.

The Atlanta Braves announced earlier today that they have claimed Alek Manoah. They moved second baseman Ozzie Albies from the 10-day IL to the 60-day to clear a spot on their 40-man roster. If they can help him regain the form that saw him compete for the Cy Young Award in 2022, this will be a nice feather in the cap of former Jays and current Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos. Of course, Manoah was taken in the first round of the 2019 draft, four years after Anthopoulos parted ways with Toronto, so this isn't simply a case of 'the old guy holding on to old scouting reports.' Current Jays GM Ross Atkins said of the decision to DFA Manoah: "This just came down to a roster crunch and us feeling like [this was] the best decision for us to hold depth and support this staff as we push forward into very important weeks." Manoah put up a 2.24 ERA over his rehab starts as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. The Jays clearly made an assessment that he would be unable to help their 2025 push for the playoffs, but there was always a feeling that he would be in the competition for a spot in the 2026 rotation. Atlanta, for their part, has already been eliminated from possible playoff contention this season after a disappointing year in the NL East. It is not out of the realm of possibility that they could even find a spot for Manoah on their 28-man roster to make a start against Pittsburgh in their final series of the year. Featured image courtesy of Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images. View full rumor

I’ll put the disclaimer right up top. This article is about me and my conflicting feelings as I watch the Blue Jays play September baseball from atop the AL East. It might be that you share some of these feelings with me, or maybe you swing strongly in one direction. A lot happens over the course of 162 games. The last time the Jays led the division before this season was in April of 2022. The last time they led the division in September? That would be 2016, where a one-game lead on September 5 saw the Jays end the season four games back of Boston, holding third place in the division. This year and these Blue Jays are different, somehow. The majority of them are the same Blue Jays as last season – the same Blue Jays that finished 20 games back of the division lead. This year, the Jays have been in the driver's seat since finishing their four-game sweep of the Yankees on July 3. I can’t explain it, and I’ve spent a large chunk of the season waiting for the wheels to fall off. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve enjoyed every come-from-behind win (a win condition the Jays lead the league in), but I prefer the blowouts. It’s easy to support a team with lowered expectations. When you don’t expect them to win, the losses are easier to stomach. When they’re rebuilding? Easier still. But when they’re winning? And they keep winning? And they’ve defied the odds to go from a coin toss to even make the playoffs to being the favourites (among AL teams) to win the World Series? It’s a different story. Flipping the calendar back to February, when we were all counting the days until pitchers and catchers reported, I thought about the Jays and the upcoming season. I just wanted to see improvement. Playoffs would be nice, but just being in the hunt in September was where I set my expectations. Now, the Jays aren’t just in the hunt – they’re the hunted. They’ve clinched a playoff spot, they hold a two-game lead over their closest competition, and they're the odds-on favourite for a first-round bye and the AL pennant. So why do I feel so nervous? The Jays might be the most well-rounded AL team heading for the playoffs. There are causes for concern, sure. I can’t trust anyone in this bullpen, but I also find myself questioning John Schnieder’s use of them. Two thoughts seemingly at odds with each other. We’re going to debate endlessly the final decisions made for the playoff roster. Injuries and IL stints and rehab assignments might force a move here and there too. The pitching rotation went from having too many options to I don’t know who starts Game 3 in a real hurry. Every decision on every play is now under a microscope in a way that we haven’t seen in Toronto for years. The Wild Card losses of recent memory weren’t the same. Sure, they each brought their own kind of painful ‘what if’ moments against Minnesota, Seattle and Tampa Bay, but we didn’t go into those playoffs in the position that we have the potential to now. I’m already on the edge of my seat. I'm reminded of an old gambling joke that goes something like this: A man and his wife are in Las Vegas on vacation. After a day of walking the strip and taking in the sights, they return to their hotel/casino for a rest. The man says, “I've got $10 left over burning a hole in my pocket, I'm going to hit the casino floor first, and then I'll meet you back at the room.” He walks over to a roulette table and, being a Blue Jays fan, throws his money down on Roy Halladay's #32. Sure enough, it comes up 32, and that $10 becomes $360. He starts placing bets on more former Jays’ numbers, and on every spin he's hitting one of them. Soon his pile of chips begins to swell, and the number of observers does too. By the time he's pulling back the chips from hitting on Tony Fernández’s #1, the crowd around the table is eight or nine people deep, and he’s up over $10,000. Bystanders are clamoring over each other, yelling out former Jays' numbers. Cult heroes left and right. Soon, the man is up over six figures and starting to think about the extravagant things he’ll be buying in the near future. He takes a second to ponder his next move. He takes all of his winnings and splits it into two piles. One goes to George Bell’s #11 and the other to Josh Donaldson’s #20, two Jays MVPs. The croupier spins the wheel in one direction and the ball in the other. For a moment, anything is possible, the magical run continues. Then the ball begins its descent, it hits the wheel and begins bouncing, it bounces in and out of the #11 section and comes to rest on the zero. Al Oliver had never even been a consideration. A groan runs through the gathered observers, and then the crowd disperses. The man walks away alone. He heads back to his room where he’s greeted by his wife. “So, how’d you make out?” she asks. He replies with a shrug, “I lost ten bucks." I expected very little from this team, and they’ve given more than I could have asked for. No matter what happens over the last week of the season and into the playoffs, the 2025 Blue Jays have to be considered a success. That’s the objective side of my thinking. The flip side is one of squandered chances and a history of playoff disappointment. This team has found a way to defy expectations all year, and I just hope it continues. When the dust settles on the playoffs and the off-season begins, we’ll take time to reflect on the remarkable things we’ve seen in individual moments and cumulative performances. Until then, I will remain stuck – somewhere between panic and perspective. View full article

With Anthony Santander ready to return from the 60-day injured list, the Blue Jays had to make a move. The first move was Ty France going to the IL with an oblique strain that may or may not be code for "Toronto needs to shuffle some bodies," and despite France's short time here, he's a team player. The more surprising move involved Alek Manoah being DFA'd, clearing a spot on the 40-man roster. Manoah was drafted by Toronto in the first round of the 2019 draft and quickly made his presence known - finishing third in Cy Young voting in 2022. His struggles in 2023 were followed by Tommy John surgery and a lengthy rehab assignment that he was nearing the end of. Updates to follow... View full rumor

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/15 through Sun, 9/21 *** Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 90-66) Run Differential Last Week: -23 (Overall: +63) Standings: First Place in AL East (2.0 games up on NYY), First in AL (3.0 games up on SEA) Game 150: TOR 2 - TB 1 (11 innings) Yesavage: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K Bullpen: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K Clement: 1 for 4, both runs scored Game 151: TOR 6 - TB 5 Berríos: 4 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K Springer: 3 for 5, 2 RBI Lukes: 1 for 4, HR (11) Loperfido: 1 for 2, HR (4) Game 152: TB 2 - TOR 1 Gausman: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K Clement: 2 for 3 Rest of Jays: 2 for 27 Game 153: TB 4 - TOR 0 Bassitt: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K Jays: 4 for 29 Game 154: KC 20 - TOR 1 Scherzer: 0.2 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 2 K Heineman: 1.1 IP, 13 H, 10 ER, 0 BB, 0 K Springer: 2 for 3, HR (30) Rest of Jays: 1 for 27 Game 155: KC 2 - TOR 1 Bieber: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K Varsho: 1 for 3, HR (19) Rest of Jays: 3 for 27 Game 156: TOR 8 - KC 5 Yesavage: 4 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K Giménez: 2 for 4, 2 RBI, 1 run, first triple Highlights: George Springer: Springer had 10 hits to lead the team this week, including a homer on his birthday. His five RBI were also a team best on a week when runs were hard to come by. The now 36-year-old has continued to defy the odds and provided a boost more often than not, leading the team in multiple offensive categories all season. It’s a shame he doesn’t like the roof being open, because I feel like in these playoffs, he’s going to blow it off. Trey Yesavage: What a first performance from the young right-hander. His 9 Ks set a franchise record for a debut. He missed an immaculate inning by one pitch (arguably umpire-induced) and ended the game with 19 swing-and-miss strikes, good for second-best of all Jays pitchers this season (Kevin Gausman’s 21 against the Tigers in July is the team high). The future looks bright, and he may be called on for a larger role than any of us expected, even a week ago. Lowlights: Max Scherzer: The Jays have very publicly discussed the fact that Scherzer has been tipping pitches for at least the last couple of weeks. If that’s the simple answer, the fix should be similarly simple. If there’s something else in his mechanics that is causing these results, the Jays don’t have much time to sort it out. For a player (regardless of pedigree) to be in the discussion to start Game 3 of a playoff series, we need to be confident they can get out of the first inning without a meltdown. Stats of the Week: The Blue Jays franchise got back to .500 (3850-3850) for the first time since May 1995. Toronto ends the season with a 40-41 road record. Only the Mariners have a worse (39-42) road record of AL teams with playoff aspirations (though we can also dent Boston’s record this week). George Springer’s leadoff home run on his birthday was the second time in his career he’s led off a birthday game with a dinger. He's the only player in MLB history to do it twice. Salvador Perez’s home run against Max Scherzer was the 303rd of his career. The first home run of his career was also against Scherzer. 14 seasons ago. Schneiders has recognized the season record of hot dogs consumed at the Rogers Centre this season and will have Hot Dog Champ merch available at the final Loonie Dog game of the season tomorrow. News, Notes and Not Playing: José Berríos was moved to the bullpen. Trey Yesavage was called up from Triple A. Ryan Borucki was DFA’d. Mason Fluharty was called up from Triple A. 10-day IL: Bo Bichette Bichette has started light hitting and has been showing improvement. His status for the playoffs is still unclear. 15-day IL: Nick Sandlin, Chris Bassitt Sandlin continues to ramp up but appears to be out of runway to make a meaningful return this season. Bassitt hitting the IL really throws a wrench into the playoff rotation picture. 60-day IL: Anthony Santander Santander played in the final two games of Buffalo’s season. He went 3-for-9 with a home run, three RBI and one run scored over his final three appearances. His availability and potential return may be complicated. Trending Storylines: The Jays scored three runs total across their four-game losing streak on the road. The last time they had a road trip through Tampa Bay, they had similarly brutal results and righted the ship when they returned home. With a week to go in the season and the desire to lock up homefield and a first-round bye, the Jays will need to repeat that trend and get results. The magic number to win the division sits at four, so Toronto can handle their business without ever having to look at the out-of-town scoreboard. With the Yankees facing the White Sox and then the Orioles, that might be the route the Jays need to take. Looking Ahead: The final homestand of the regular season is here with a pair of AL East teams coming to Toronto and hoping to play spoiler. First up is the Red Sox, who are currently clinging to a Wild Card spot. Boston has a one-game lead over Houston and Cleveland and owns the tiebreaker against both. FanGraphs has the Red Sox's playoffs odds close to 90%, but with nothing assured and series against Toronto and Detroit to close out their year, Boston will be looking to clinch early. We’re projected to see Lucas Giolito, Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello in the series, so hopefully the Jays bats just need some home cooking to get going again. Three games against Tampa will provide the cap on the regular season. Ideally, business is taken care of by the time Boston leaves town, and the final series can be used as a tune-up for the playoffs and a way to get the rotation and bats set for the postseason. View full article

I was getting ready to make an argument for Scherzer as the game 3 starter... and then I watched this first inning. Maybe Bassitt is the guy.

1. Does this cement Gausman as the Game 1 starter regardless of who our first playoff opponent is? 2. That 10 IP shutout from Halladay is such a beautiful stat line. 3. I could honestly stare at that game score chart for hours.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/1 through Sun, 9/7 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 82-61) Run Differential Last Week: +10 (Overall: + 65) Standings: First Place in AL East (2.0 Games Up on NYY), First in AL (0.5 game up on DET) Last Week’s Results Game 138: CIN 5 - TOR 4 Bassitt: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K Bichette: 4 for 4, HR (17) Varsho: 1 for 3, HR (16) Game 139: TOR 12 - CIN 9 Berríos: 2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K Varland: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (First win as a Blue Jay) Springer: 3 for 4, 2 HR (25, 26), 3 RBI, 3 R Guerrero Jr.: 3 for 4, 3 runs Game 140: TOR 13 - CIN 9 Bieber: 6 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 6 K Barger: 2 for 4, HR (19), 4 RBI Springer: 2 for 4, 3 R Game 141: TOR 7 - NYY 1 Gausman: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K Guerrero Jr.: 4 for 5, HR (23), 3 R Bichette: 3 for 3, 2 RBI Game 142: NYY 3 - TOR 1 Bassitt: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K Guerrero Jr.: 2 for 4 Rest of team: 3 for 27 Game 143: NYY 4 - TOR 3 Scherzer: 4.1 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 8 K Lukes: 2 for 3 Highlights: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Vladdy had a real face-of-the-franchise week, leading not only the Jays but the entire league in fWAR over the last seven days. He had 14 hits, including three doubles and a pair of homers, to go along with eight runs scored. His leaping dive, from what felt like halfway up the third base line, to score the first run in New York will be one of the defining images of the season. Kevin Gausman: Gausman gave the pitching performance of the week. His eight innings were also the most by any Jays starter. Recognizing a need to “reach 100 pitches” and take the strain off of an overworked bullpen is going to be an ongoing concern down the home stretch, and Gausman did the most on that front this week. The one earned run against a tough New York Yankees lineup was almost secondary to the workhorse nature of his outing. Chris Bassitt: Not a typical highlight week from the Hound on the Mound, but I’d like to take just a second to tip the cap for the last-minute rotation shuffle that had Bassitt and Max Scherzer swapping places to give Scherzer an extra day to get ready for the Yankees. For all the questions around the rotation and how the personnel would be handled, that wasn’t a move that was expected (at least externally). Making two starts on the week, Bassitt didn’t find himself in the win column, but he did lead all Jays pitchers in fWAR. Lowlights: Addison Barger: Barger picked up a homer, stole a base and had 4 RBI on the week. He also went 3-for-17, and his .176 BA on the week was the worst of the Jays that saw everyday action. In smaller samples, Davis Schneider and Myles Straw both had “oh-fer” weeks (0-for-7 and 0-for-6, respectively), but we’ve come to expect more from Barger. As Bob Ritchie suggests, this is hopefully the last time we see Barger in this spot. Louis Varland: There are a few pitchers we could throw into the lowlights section this week (check out Bryan Jaeger's great breakdown), and maybe picking on a guy that just got his first win as a Jay isn’t the move. On the other hand, four earned runs in under three innings of work just isn’t getting it done for a playoff-bound bullpen. Varland wears the crown of shame this week. Random Notes of the Week: George Springer moved into the franchise lead for leadoff home runs (23), surpassing Devon White’s mark. September 2 was the 35th anniversary of Dave Stieb’s no-hitter, the only no-no in Blue Jays history. Kevin Gausman’s performance this week now gives him 10 of the top 16 Jays starts this season by Game Score. While the Jays were on the road this week, Morgan Wallen performed at the Rogers Centre and got a shoutout on social media from Gausman for performing in a Roy Halladay jersey. News, Notes and Not Playing: Dillon Tate was called up and sent back to Triple A over the course of the week. Isiah Kiner-Falefa reported to the Jays after being claimed on waivers from Pittsburgh. Easton Lucas was sent down to Triple A. Ryan Borucki and Braydon Fisher were called up from Triple A. Day-to-day: Bo Bichette Bichette missed Sunday’s game after a collision at the plate on Saturday. He expects to be ready for the next series. 60-day IL: Anthony Santander, Nick Sandlin After being shut down for much of the summer, Santander has made significant progress the last couple weeks and is expected to begin a rehab assignment this week. Following another elbow injection, it was hoped Sandlin would begin throwing again. Instead, he found himself transferred to the 60-day IL. Trending Storylines: It’s all eyes on the playoff race from here on out. The Yankees have closed the gap in the division to two games. If you had given us this position at the start of the year, we would have grabbed it with both hands, but now that we have it, it’s time to maintain it. The Texas Rangers are the first team outside of the Wild Card picture and are 8.5 games behind Toronto, so the Jays are (not mathematically, but figuratively) guaranteed a playoff spot. In fact, if gambling is your thing, most betting sites don’t even have odds available on “making the playoffs” for Toronto at his point. They’re the betting favourite to win the #1 seed in some futures markets, but not to win the division in others. All of that to say, it’s a close race. Every player and every play (like yesterday’s failed hit-and-run in the ninth inning) is going under the microscope now. Time to play like champions. Looking Ahead: The penultimate homestand of the regular season welcomes the Houston Astros and the Baltimore Orioles to the Rogers Centre. The Astros are the one team at the Jays' level of the playoff race that Toronto doesn’t have the tiebreak against, so it will be key (for that and other reasons) to pick up wins against them now. Baltimore has less to play for, but their three games against Toronto this week and their seven games remaining against the Yankees have as much potential to swing the division as any of the Jays' head-to-head matchups do. 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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/18 through Sun, 8/24 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 76-55) Run Differential Last Week: +2 (Overall: +55) Standings: First in AL East (5.0 games up on BOS), Second in AL (1.5 games back of DET, 4.0 up on HOU) Last Week’s Results Game 126: PIT 5 - TOR 2 Gausman: 5 IP, 5H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K Jays: 6-for-32, 11 K, 3 E Game 127: TOR 7 - PIT 3 Scherzer: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K Springer: 2-for-4, HR (20), 2 R Kirk: 3-for-5, HR (10), 3 RBI Game 128: PIT 2 - TOR 1 Bassitt: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 10 K Springer: 1-for-3, leadoff HR (21) Bichette: 2-for-4 Rest of Team: 0-for-22 Game 129: TOR 5 - MIA 2 Bieber: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K Varsho: 2-for-4, HR (14), 3 RBI Game 130: TOR 7 - MIA 6 (12 Innings) Berríos: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K Springer: 3-for-6, HR (22) Bichette: 4-for-6, 2 R Game 131: MIA 5 - TOR 3 Gausman: 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K Varsho: 1-for-4, HR (15), 3 RBI Bichette: 2-for-3 Highlights: Shane Bieber: Tough to ask much more from a pitcher in his season (and team) debut. After looking sharp on his rehab assignment, there was still some doubt about how Bieber would handle major league batters for the first time since April of last year. Six innings of two-hit ball with nine strikeouts was better than expected. A tougher test is coming soon, with his next start projected to be against the Brewers, but if he looks as good as he did this week, the Jays might have another ace up their sleeves. George Springer: With his home runs this week, Springer now has nine career seasons of at least 20 homers. His three dingers this week led the team, and his leadoff home run in the second loss to Pittsburgh was the only source of Blue Jays offense that day. Bo Bichette: His 0.45 Win Probability Added led the team this week and was four times more than that of the next closest hitter (Springer’s 0.11 was second-highest). He also led the team in hits (11), singles (8), doubles (3), runs scored (6, a tie with Springer) and wRC+ (213). In a week when a lot of the bats went quiet, Bichette just kept doing what he does best. Lowlights: Kevin Gausman: It might be a touch unfair to have Gausman here. If he were a different pitcher, we might be celebrating his performance opposite Paul Skenes at the start of the week, and maybe we’d be a bit more forgiving of the two mistake pitches that led to all of his earned runs against Miami yesterday. Yet, with respect to Bieber and Max Scherzer, I still think of Gausman as the ace of this staff, and this week he didn’t live up to that title. Random Stats of the Week: Springer’s leadoff home run against Pittsburgh was his 22nd as a Blue Jay, putting him into a tie with Devon White for the franchise lead. Bieber is the only pitcher in Blue Jays history to have 9-plus strikeouts and zero walks in his debut. News, Notes and Not Playing: Braydon Fisher drew the short straw and was sent down to Triple A to make room for Bieber’s activation. Mason Fluharty also went down to Triple A, and Paxton Schultz took his place in the 'pen. Day-to-Day: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Vladdy left Monday's game with hamstring tightness, possibly related to a splits-inducing defensive play at first base earlier in the game. He entered last night’s game as a pinch hitter and is expected to return to full duties this week. 60-day IL: Bowden Francis, Alek Manoah Manoah sounds to be the closer of the two to returning, and while both pitchers still have the potential to pitch in 2025, I would be surprised to see either of them pitch an impactful inning at this point. Trending Storylines: Bieber’s introduction to the pitching rotation led to some expected roster shuffling. Eric Lauer spent a couple of days sitting in the bullpen. He got up and warmed up a little during Bieber’s start, but ultimately didn’t see any game action this week. John Schneider has announced the starters for the upcoming series against Minnesota and Milwaukee, and Lauer is back in the rotation, slated for Wednesday night against the Twins. The Jays will run a six-man rotation, at least for this week. On the other side of the ball, one of the hallmarks of the 2025 Blue Jays has been the production they’ve gotten from the bottom of the order and the unexpected stars. This week, they were carried by the names you would expect (even with Guerrero Jr. missing time): Springer, Bichette, Varsho and Kirk provided the majority of the offense, while the rest of the team trended downwards. I don’t think there’s anyone specific to worry about, but a lot of players are on a watchlist for the upcoming series. Looking Ahead: The Minnesota Twins come to town for a three-game set to start the week. After their fire sale at the trade deadline, the Twins have gone 8-13, but the Jays will have to contend with Minnesota's best pitcher, Joe Ryan, on Monday night. Hopefully, Louis Varland or Ty France brought some intel with them that can give the Jays' bats an edge. Unfortunately, the Jays won’t be seeing Alan Roden on this visit. His season ended with a thumb injury that required surgery, and he’ll close out his year on the 60-day IL. Then, after an off-day on Thursday, it’ll be the Milwaukee Brewers and their league-best record coming to town for a three-game series over the weekend. The Brewers will be coming off of a four-game series against the Diamondbacks, so hopefully the Jays can capitalize on the visitors' travel fatigue. View full article