Mike LeSage

In a seven-game series, they say you aren’t in trouble until you lose one at home. Well, now the Jays have dropped two at home and head to Seattle looking to: 1. Avoid the sweep. 2. Force a return to Toronto, and 3. Win the damned series. Long odds to be sure, but this Jays team has been counted out before and defied expectations. It’s not over ‘til it’s over and whatever other cliches you need to grab onto to get us through until Wednesday night. Twenty-nine teams have lost the first two games of a best-of-seven at home, and only four times have they come back to win. The Jays will look to make that five. Until then, let’s review Game 2. The umpire should never be the story of the game, and he wasn’t here, but Doug Eddings will get a mention. His questionable strike zone cost Trey Yesavage an out on leadoff batter, Randy Arozarena. Eddings had some bad calls go the Jays' way, too, so I’m not saying the fix was in, I’m just saying he’s bad at his job. Regardless, Arozarena ended up on first base after an HBP and then moved up to second after a walk to Cal Raleigh. Julio Rodríguez then took a splitter that stayed up in the zone and knocked it out of the park (-18% WPA). 3-0 Mariners before an out was recorded. Yesavage would record three strikeouts to get out of the inning, but it wasn’t the start we had hoped for. The Jays would scrap back two runs in the bottom of the frame. George Springer led things off for the home side with a double (+5.5% WPA). Then it was Nathan Lukes, back in the lineup and batting second after fouling a ball off his kneecap in the first inning yesterday. His single scored Springer (+9.2% WPA), and then he advanced to second on a throwing error. After advancing the third on a groundout by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lukes would score on a single by Alejandro Kirk (+8.5% WPA). 3-2 Mariners. Yesavage would retire the Mariners in order in the 2nd inning, and the Jays would tie the game up on another Luke's RBI single, this time cashing Ernie Clement (+11.2% WPA). 3-3 ballgame going into the 3rd inning. Unlike Game 1, the Mariners would be the first to make a call to the bullpen with starter Logan Gilbert being replaced by Eduard Bazardo after three innings. Yesavage would get four innings before being replaced by Louis Varland. From here, the ‘pens would diverge critically. The first four Toronto pitchers out of the ‘pen would all be responsible for at least one earned run. Varland, Mason Fluharty, Braydon Fisher, and Yariel Rodríguez would be on the hook for, in order: a 3-run home run to Jorge Polanco (-28.2% WPA), an RBI single to J.P. Crawford (-2.8% WPA), a Josh Naylor two-run home run (-3.8% WPA) and then three consecutive walks to load the bases. Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer had scoreless appearances to close out the game (Bassitt allowed one of Rodríguez’s inherited walks to score via sac fly), but by that point, it was out of reach. The Seattle bullpen, on the other hand, would use Bazardo, Carlos Vargas, and Emerson Hancock, getting two innings each and combining to throw six innings of one-hit shutout ball. Toronto earned a reputation in the New York series of working counts and getting to the opposing bullpen to do some damage, but the Mariners ‘pen is a different beast. Over the first two games, the Jays have seen six relievers over nine innings and have managed just one hit. That is the biggest thing that needs to change if they hope to bring this series back from the West Coast. Seattle took two out of three games at the Rogers Centre in the regular season. The Jays won all three games at T-Mobile Park, so we’re still well within the realm of possibility. The last time the Jays lost two games at home to start a playoff series was in 2015 against the Texas Rangers. Toronto came back to win three straight and take the series. They don’t need to win all the games at once; they just need to start with Shane Bieber’s start in Game 3 - first pitch Wednesday evening, 8:08 PM EST. View full article

I know this is the nature of the bracket, but man, these votes are getting tough!

With apologies to Nathan Lukes, the first inning of Game 1 went almost perfectly. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman gave up a pair of singles, but a heads-up play from Addison Barger – a throw to the plate on a fielder’s choice – caught Cal Raleigh and kept the top half scoreless (+7.2% WPA). One pitch into the bottom half of the inning, and it was 1-0 Jays. George Springer hit the first postseason leadoff home run in Toronto franchise history and gave his team the lead (+10.1% WPA). Lukes followed that up with a 13-pitch AB where he fouled the 10th pitch off of his knee and went down in pain. He finished the at-bat with a walk and stayed in the game, but would later be replaced by Myles Straw after his second at-bat in the third inning. Barger also worked a walk in that opening frame, but the Jays could only manage the one run. From that point, Gausman was locked in. He sat down 16 in a row, including a five-pitch fifth inning after giving up that pair of singles in the first. One of those singles was to Seattle’s (and maybe the league’s?) MVP, Cal Raleigh. In his second AB, Gausman won the battle, getting Raleigh to strike out on a splitter. The third time through the order, it was Raleigh who won by doing what he does best, taking a splitter that Gausman probably wanted a little lower 420 feet to right-centre and tying the game (-17% WPA). Gausman issued a walk to the next batter (Julio Rodríguez) and was lifted from the game after only 76 pitches. Bryce Miller, not the typical Game 1 starter, but the necessary one after Seattle’s 15-inning conclusion to the ALDS, was equal to the task and sat down 13 in a row himself. After Springer's home run, the Jays were only able to manage one more hit to go along with three walks. They were 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position and never expanded their lead. With Gausman out of the game, the Jays turned to Brendon Little, who threw seven wild pitches in the regular season. He threw his first of the playoffs and allowed Rodríguez to move up to second base. Jorge Polanco took advantage and cashed in Rodríguez with a single to left field (-15.9% WPA). 2-1 Mariners. It was Polanco who added to Seattle's lead in the eighth as well. After Seranthony Domínguez issued a walk to Randy Arozarena, the former Tampa Bay Ray stole second and then third to put him 90 feet away. Armchair managing here, but Seranthony needed to do a better job holding Arozarena – he was halfway to third by the time Domínguez released his pitch. With the infield playing in, Polanco was able to get one through and into right field, scoring Arozarena (-6.7% WPA). 3-1 Mariners. It’s hard to say that Game 1 was a must-win in a seven-game series, but given the circumstances of the Mariners' arrival in Toronto, and with our ace going up against their back-of-the-rotation starter, it felt like one the Jays had to walk away with. Instead, they only mustered two hits, and none after the second inning. They had their last baserunner in the sixth. The bright side is that the Jays put 21 balls in play (10 of them hard hit), although they only had a .048 BABIP to show for it. They also only struck out four times (compared to the Mariners' 11), so hopefully tomorrow, some more balls in play break the Jays' way; otherwise, this might end up a shorter series than we hoped for. View full article

I love that Schneider has tried to dampen this idea by specifically saying Bo wouldn't get the Gibson treatment - but if IKF plays this round like the last one I'd take my chances with Bichette.

The Toronto Blue Jays have released their roster for the ALCS (first pitch at 8:03 PM EST tonight!), and there were a couple of changes from the team we saw in the last round. First, we say goodbye to Tommy Nance and Justin Bruihl. Nance pitched an inning and a third in the ALDS and had a team-high 13.50 ERA (4-game small sample alert) of pitchers with at least one inning pitched. Bruihl misses the one-inning cut-off by two-thirds as he retired only one of the four batters he faced, gave up a dinger, and was saddled with an ERA of 54.00 (even smaller sample size alert!). Taking their places are Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt. Bassitt ended the regular season on the IL with lower back inflammation, but was eligible to be selected for the ALDS roster. Scherzer struggled down the stretch, posting a 10.20 ERA in September (only Tyler Heineman's 67.50 was worse) to go along with a 5.34 FIP. The Jays haven't fully committed to a rotation plan this series, other than announcing Kevin Gausman as the Game 1 starter, but it is safe to assume, based on how the last round went, that Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber get games 2 and 3. Does that give us a Scherzer Game 4 start with the shortest leash in the world and Bassitt out of the 'pen in relief? That's where my first thought would be. With all that shuffling of the pitchers, there was unfortunately no change on the hitters' side. Bo Bichette, despite running the bases yesterday, was not yet in a position to occupy a roster spot. As noted by Ben Nicholson-Smith, Bichette was still showing signs of discomfort in that knee that was injured September 6 in a collision with Yankee Austin Wells. The Jays will have to make the World Series now to guarantee Bichette another shot at playing in a Toronto uniform before hitting free agency this coming off-season. View full rumor

In the review of Game 4 we noted what a team effort that particular game was. That’s been the story of the season. This team has spoken publicly about how tight of a unit they are. When a new player joins the team or gets called up they are immediately integrated into the main squad. This team approach is reflected in the stats the players put up in the ALDS too. Eight out of 12 players that took an at bat in the series put up an above average wRC+ and all but one pitcher gave up 2 earned runs of fewer. While team awards would be easy, we’re going to drill down on a few individual performances and send some guys home with a little extra hardware. ALDS MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Who else could it be but Vladdy? He homered in each of the first three games of the series and then opened the scoring with an RBI-single in the first inning of Game 4. His nine RBI were the most in the series. His nine hits and 324 wRC+ were (tied for) the most in the series. Jays fans often questioned why we would pitch to Aaron Judge in certain situations, but by the end of the series we were asking “why do they keep pitching to Vladdy?”. Brandon Glick wrote about Guerrero Jr. not just living up to the moment, but becoming it. In Game 2 when Will Warren came in to replace starter Max Fried, Guerrero Jr. found himself coming to the plate with the bases loaded. All he did with the moment was hit the first ever grand slam in Blue Jays postseason history. The Dave Stieb Playoff Debut Award: Trey Yesavage Yesavage got the ball for Game 2 and not only gave the Yankees nightmares with his splitter and 18 whiffs, but he made history too. His dominant performance in front of the home crowd (only his second ever start in Toronto) took the baton from Kevin Gausman and kept things running. His game score is behind only Stieb’s debut in Jays postseason history and I expect he’s locked himself into the Game 2 slot for the ALCS too. The Rodney Dangerfield No Respect Award: Ernie Clement Clement was a strong consideration for the last two awards. While Yesavage was making his playoff debut in his fourth major league start, Clement was making his after 434 games. He was on the taxi squad with Cleveland in 2022, but didn’t get to the main roster. When I noted that Vladdy’s nine hits and 324 wRC+ were tied for the team lead - it was Clement he was tied with. He was the only Jays hitter to not record a strike out and he also didn’t walk - he was all bat. He admitted to blacking out after hitting his first home run and then almost missed the team picture after the series was won. Clement put up an ALDS to remember. The Tarps Off, Call the Horses Award: George Springer Springer homered and scored four times in the series, but his overall performance was slightly disappointing compared to the level he’s been playing at all season. The 89 wRC+ and 25% K-rate are things we’d like to see tossed for the next series. Just like Springer tossed his shirt within seconds of the Jays securing victory. He was the first guy to go topless when Toronto secured the division in game 162 and he was the first to whip it off this round too. I haven’t seen it available anywhere as a betting option (probably because it’s a lock), but I’d bet he’s the first to shed his top at the conclusion of the ALCS too. The Sportsnet is Going to Need a 5-second Delay Award: Kevin Gausman There were a number of incredible quotes and moments captured in the aftermath of the ALDS. Guerrero Jr. and David Ortiz yelling “DAAAAAAA Yankees lose!” is the one that most will remember, but it didn’t have the curse factor needed for this award. John Schnieder’s “Start spreading the news” was instantly iconic and certainly in consideration for this award. Gausman gets the award for putting up numbers though - in six seconds he drops 3 f-bombs and an “I don’t give a s***”. He’s fired up and he’s ready to go. I can’t wait to see him start Game 1 against Seattle. View full article

Beautifully written! If they go all the way this year I wonder if Gausman has an outside shot at making the Level of Excellence. My head says no, but my heart says get him up there.

It started as a tight game in both directions, with the lowest-scoring first six innings of the series. To that point, the Jays had used five pitchers in their planned bullpen game: Louis Varland, Mason Fluharty, Seranthony Domínguez, Eric Lauer and Yariel Rodríguez. The only blemish was a solo home run surrendered by Fluharty to Yankees lefty third baseman Ryan McMahon. All things considered, the pitch from Fluharty wasn’t bad: a sweeper away in the lefty/lefty matchup that McMahon was able to sit back on and get enough of a barrel on to put it into the stands. The only other hit given up by Toronto pitching was a first-inning single to Aaron Judge. You could argue that manager John Schneider was being overly aggressive with his bullpen management, but you couldn’t argue with the results. The Yankees, meanwhile, had only used one pitcher. Cam Schlittler scattered seven hits through six innings, and the Jays had been able to manufacture two runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s single drove in George Springer from second base in the first inning, and then Springer followed up in the fifth with a sac fly to bring home Ernie Clement. Then came the seventh inning… The top of the seventh began like few of the previous innings, with a Blue Jays out; Toronto had put the lead runner on in four of the first six innings previously. Anthony Santander’s foul out was followed by an Ernie Clement single – his ninth hit of the series. Andrés Giménez was next to the plate, and it appeared that his 88-mph grounder up the middle (a ball that Schlittler waved at, but pulled his glove back on) would lead to an inning-ending double play. Instead, the final hop of the ball caught Jazz Chisholm Jr. off guard, and he deflected the ball into centre field. The inning continued, and Schlittler was lifted after 88 pitches as the Yankees turned to their 'pen. Giménez stole second on a Devin Williams strikeout of Springer, which put runners on second and third with Nathan Lukes coming to the plate. Lukes didn’t see a pitch in the zone, but it didn’t matter. He took an elevated fastball and sent it into centre field. His single cashed in both runs and provided the game with its largest win probability added jump to that point, by a wide margin: 18.1% in favour of the Jays, bringing their overall game win expectancy to 89%. The bottom of the seventh brought the Jays' sixth pitcher of the game, Brendon Little. A leadoff walk to Paul Goldschmidt and a two-out single to Amed Rosario brought a bit of drama. Two runners on, Trent Grisham at the plate and the fearsome Judge in the on-deck circle representing the potential go-ahead run. Little was able to induce a pop-up into foul territory, and the Jays escaped the inning with a 4-1 lead. Alejandro Kirk led off the eighth with a double and tagged up to move to third on a deep fly ball to right field by Daulton Varsho. Then it was Myles Straw’s turn to stir the drink. Having entered the game as a defensive substitution for Santander, Straw was able to get his bat on a slider down in the zone and sent it into right field to bring home Kirk. 5-1 Jays. Braydon Fisher came in for the bottom of the eighth and started off hot, getting Judge to strike out on five pitches. He then got Cody Bellinger to pop out, but a single to Giancarlo Stanton and a walk to Chisholm made things a little tense again. John Schneider then turned to his eighth pitcher of the game, closer Jeff Hoffman. The Hoff walked Ben Rice to load the bases, and an entire fan base suddenly flashed to a worst-case scenario. Instead, a fly out to Straw in left ended the inning, and a stream of Yankees fans started their exit from the stadium. Nathan Lukes led off the ninth with a double; it was the sixth time the Jays started an inning with a leadoff hit. A groundout and two K’s would strand Lukes and take us to the bottom of the ninth, where a couple of hits and a run scored by the Yankees were filed into the ‘too little, too late’ bin. Hoffman, while not looking the most dialed in we’ve seen him, got the job done, striking out Bellinger to end the game and send the Jays to the ALCS. They will host either Seattle or Detroit on Thanksgiving weekend at the Rogers Centre. There were mixed feelings around the Blue Jays fan community as Game 4 was telegraphed to be a bullpen game. Only three starters made the roster for the ALDS, and two of those starters, Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage, made mid-game trips to the bullpen ‘just in case.’ Ultimately, they weren’t called on, but they were there and they were ready. The eight pitchers that were used put up a pitching line to be proud of: 9 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 10 K. Every single one of those guys deserves praise. Schneider and pitching coach Pete Walker get some shine too. Like I said at the top, you might not have agreed with their moves, but we can’t argue with the results. The Jays have talked all season about what a close-knit group they’ve become, and they used the ultimate team game to advance to the ALCS for the first time since 2016. I’m not leaving out praise for the bats either; it was a team effort on the other side of the ball. Twelve hits for the team. Eight out of nine spots in the order got at least one knock. In an alternate timeline, we might bemoan the team's 3-for-17 showing with runners in scoring position, or the nine runners left on base, but they did enough. With four hits and three runs from the bottom of the order, a Jays team that proved itself relentless with no easy sections of the order made each at-bat count and secured the win. Nineteen Blue Jays appeared in this game, and they all had a hand in getting to this point and moving on. Like John Schneider said in his post-game celebration speech: Start spreading the news, bitches! View full article

Best piece of perspective I can share is that the '92 and '93 teams didn't have a sweep in their runs.

Hell yeah! What a great countdown.

Before this series began, we took a look at how the Blue Jays might manage their rotation. I floated a number of names as potential Game 2 starters, including Trey Yesavage, but ultimately landed on Chris Bassitt for the second game and penciled Yesavage in for Game 4. Well, now that we have two games in the rearview (and considering Bassitt isn't even on the roster this round), I can’t imagine things having played out any more perfectly than the way they did. Yesavage didn’t just hold his own in his start – he dominated. Yesavage became the first pitcher outside of the Rays organization to make a postseason start within his first four MLB appearances (Shane Baz and Matt Moore both did it with TB). Before the first pitch, Yesavage had already made Blue Jays history as the youngest pitcher to make a postseason start for the franchise. The rookie was lights out from pitch one. In the first inning, all three outs came via strikeout. All three on splitters and all three against lefties (Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice). Yesavage joins Blue Jay greats Pat Hentgen and Juan Guzman as the only Toronto pitchers to open a playoff game with three strikeouts in the first inning. Guzman and Hentgen both did it in the 1993 World Series (Games 1 and 3, respectively). In the third inning, Yesavage struck out the side (Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells and Grisham), bringing his game total to seven. After striking out the side again in the fourth inning (Aaron Judge, Bellinger and Rice), he was at 10, tying him with Patrick Corbin for the most K's through four innings in postseason history. His six consecutive strikeouts are also a record, tying him with seven other pitchers, including Justin Verlander, who accomplished the feat twice. In the fifth inning, Jazz Chisholm Jr. would reach base on an error charged to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., keeping Yesavage’s no-hit bid intact. The righty would end the inning with another strikeout of Anthony Volpe for his 11th and final K of the day. Those 11 strikeouts are the most by a Toronto pitcher in a postseason start in franchise history. The previous high of eight was shared by David Price (call him David Twice, because he did it two times), Guzman and Dave Stieb. As noted by Sarah Langs of MLB.com, Stieb’s performance was also his playoff debut. Prior to this game, the most postseason swings and misses recorded by a Blue Jay was Marco Estrada’s 16 in 2016. Yesavage set a new mark with 18. Those 18 misses came against only 31 total swings for a whiff rate of 58%. That’s the most in postseason history (since 2008, when pitch tracking came into use) with a qualifying swing total of 25 (via Langs). At 22 years old, Yesavage also became the second-youngest player to record 10+ strikeouts in a playoff game. John Candelaria was 99 days younger when he struck out 14 in 1975. Yesavage put up a Game Score of 78 with his dominant performance, placing him second in team postseason history. Only Dave Stieb’s 83 in the 1985 ALCS (the same game in which he struck out eight and set the franchise record for K’s in a game that Yesavage just obliterated) is higher. With Toronto on the brink of eliminating the Yankees, Yesavage should get the opportunity to add to his lore, stats and history in the ALCS – and depending on how the rest of this series shakes out, he could even be our Game 1 starter next time. View full article

In our review of Game 1, we looked at the at-bats that generated at least a 10% swing in win probability. If we went that route for Game 2, this would be a real short read. There was only one AB in the whole game that crossed that threshold. That was Ernie Clement’s two-run home run in the second inning. After Daulton Varsho’s ‘triple’ (scored a double with an error) increased the Jays' chance of winning by 9.8%, Clement’s homer furthered that advantage by 10.4%. By the end of the third inning, the Jays' win probability was over 90% and would remain above 90% for the duration of the game. By the time the Yankees were roughing up Tommy Nance in the seventh inning, from a probability standpoint, they could not afford to trade outs for runs. This meant that a play like Cody Bellinger’s sacrifice fly, which scored Paul Goldschmidt, was actually scored as improving the Jays' chances of winning. In a four-batter span, the Yankees added five runs to their total, bringing the game from 13-2 to 13-7. A lot of people (myself included) were getting far less cocky than we had been just a couple of innings earlier. The Jays' win probability wasn’t phased; it went from 99.7% all the way down to 99.1%. Since we don’t have a lot of plays that led to large win probability swings to drill down on, let’s look at the players who made the largest cumulative contributions. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 11% WPA (3-for-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 R) Vladdy continued to terrorize the Yankees. He hit the first grand slam in Blue Jays postseason history. Yankees starter Max Fried came out to start the fourth inning but was lifted before recording an out. The pitcher that manager Aaron Boone turned to was Will Warren. Warren, to his credit, recorded more outs than Fried did, pitching 4.2 innings; the four home runs he surrendered perhaps point to an overused bullpen or a manager who had already thrown in the towel. Regardless of the reasoning behind Boone's pitching decisions, the results were the results, and now Guerrero will always be the answer to the question: Who hit the first Jays playoff grand slam? Ernie Clement: 14% WPA (3-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 R) As noted above, Clement’s homer was the biggest win expectancy swing of the game. Batting sixth and playing third base, he was mainly in the lineup for his glove; the Jays started five Gold Glovers to back up their rookie pitcher (we’ll get to him soon) and, as noted in the pre-game broadcast, Clement is a favourite to win the utility player Gold Glove this season. A lineup built for defense really brought the offense, and Clement led the charge. Daulton Varsho: 16% WPA (4-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R) Speaking of Gold Glovers playing like Silver Sluggers, Varsho had as many extra-base hits against Fried as he had against left-handed pitching all season. He also went deep twice off of Warren. His first double was originally ruled a triple before the official scorekeeper had a look at Aaron Judge’s whiff in the outfield, not to be confused with his whiffs at the plate (again, we’ll get there!), and took us off of cycle watch. Varsho earned an honourable mention for Jays Centre's Hitter of the Year, and with the way he’s started these playoffs, he surely wants to be in the running for postseason honours too. Trey Yesavage: 18% WPA (5.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K) Five and a third innings of no-hit baseball in his postseason debut and only his fourth start at the major league level. Yesavage faced 18 batters and struck out 11 of them. His performance was so electric (a word seemingly required to describe the young hurler) that manager John Schneider was booed by the hometown crowd when he came out of the dugout to lift Yesavage from the game. In post-game remarks, Schnieder said he turned to some of the vets in the dugout and said, “Wish me luck!” before heading out to the mound. After two dominant performances at home, the Jays will head to the Bronx and look to Shane Bieber to continue the string of great starting pitching performances, as they strive to wrap this series up in the minimum number of games. View full article

The Blue Jays have won their first playoff game in almost a decade, and it couldn’t have been scripted any better than the way it played out. Every Jays starter had a hit, drove in a run, or scored. The pitchers were all efficient and limited the damage to just one run and six hits against a potent Yankees lineup. The game ended 10-1, but there were some big plays that swung the pendulum more than others. Using FanGraphs Win Probability Added, the biggest plays were as follows. +10.6% WPA - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers in the first inning. Vladdy’s three hits yesterday doubled his career playoff total, but none were bigger than his first-inning home run to open the scoring. The face of the franchise had been struggling throughout September, but a week off and a calendar flip to October have Guerrero Jr. looking like the cornerstone we love. +9.4% WPA - Alejandro Kirk homers in the second inning. I was going to limit this recap to the plays that generated at least a 10% swing, but I couldn’t leave this Kirk home run out. Following in Vladdy’s footsteps, we have another Jay hitting his first career postseason dinger. This home run, while early in the game and only giving the Jays a two-run lead, pushed their overall win probability over 75% -10.1% WPA - Austin Wells singles in the sixth inning and moves Anthony Volpe to 3B. With none out in the sixth, Wells' hit put runners on the corners and the go-ahead run at the plate. It was a time for Jays fans to hold their breath a little more than usual. +10.4% WPA - Kevin Gausman strikes out Aaron Judge. Gausman induced 12 swing and misses in yesterday's game, but the two whiffs by Judge in this at-bat, with the bases loaded and none out, were beyond huge. In post-game remarks, Gausman said he wasn’t afraid to walk Judge in this spot, because he could only hurt them for one run. For his part, Judge was clearly thinking Gausman would challenge him more and be in the zone. Instead, Gausman threw a perfect splitter, down and away, and all Judge could do was weakly wave at it. -13.4% WPA - Kevin Gausman walks Cody Bellinger. The walk that Gausman wasn’t afraid to issue to Judge ends up going to Bellinger in the next at-bat. With the bases still loaded and just the one out, the Yankees seemed poised to do some damage. The walk brought the Jays' win expectancy down to 50.3%, a coin toss, and the lowest it had been since the first inning. +12.1% WPA - Ben Rice pops out with the infield fly rule in effect. The last batter Gausman would face popped out and had the Jays on the verge of escaping the inning with the lead intact and the damage limited. +12% WPA - Louis Varland strikes out Giancarlo Stanton to end the sixth inning. Varland entered the game for the largest leverage at bat of the game and got Stanton to strike out on a 101 MPH fastball - the fastest pitch of the game. It also marked four straight at-bats with win percentage swings of over 10% and was the fifth one of the inning. As great as all the runs scored by the Jays were, this stretch of at-bats was the clear pivot point of the game, and Gausman and Varland were at their best. The Jays would go on to add eight more runs from this point. Four in each of the seventh and eighth innings. A second home run for Kirk, Nathan Lukes with 3 RBI, 17 at bats over the two innings, and perhaps most importantly: burning through the Yankees’ bullpen. Sticking with a win probability viewpoint, both stars, Gausman, Guerrero, and Seranthony Domínguez were responsible for 10% WPA each over the course of the game, but just edging them out is Varland at 11%. Louis Varland is the high-leverage king of Toronto. Who might we see step up for Game 2? Blue Jays Bullpen Usage TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Yesavage 0 0 0 0 0 0 Varland 0 0 0 0 16 16 Little 0 0 0 0 14 14 S. Domínguez 0 0 0 0 7 7 Lauer 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hoffman 0 0 0 0 17 17 Rodriguez 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fluharty 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bruihl 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

Wasn't what I expected, but I don't hate it. Especially if (when!) we sweep them!

So much is going to depend on the outcomes of the games beforehand too. Going to NY up 2-0 is a lot different than going there with a split (or worse). I liked Schneider's comments today though - he didn’t quite commit to selling out for the win in each game, but I got the feeling they're not going to leave someone in the pen they 'might need tomorrow' if they're the right move for the moment.

With the number of pitching pieces Toronto has, it can feel like a little bit of a puzzle trying to put them together in the optimal order. Of course, a puzzle usually only has one correct way to solve it. Maybe this Jays rotation is more like a task on Taskmaster: an opportunity for some lateral thinking and unconventional solutions. In a press conference on Friday afternoon, when asked if he prepares differently for a best-of-five versus a best-of-three series, manager John Schneider responded, "You can get a little bit creative, and that’s what we’re working through now.” He also noted that it was "all hands on deck" for each game in terms of managing to win, so let’s go through the pieces I think we’re working with and see where he might fit them. Kevin Gausman: Our Starter of the Year gets Game 1 and (if necessary) probably Game 5. John Schneider confirmed Gausman for the first game, but made no commitment to future games for Gausman or the rest of the staff. No reason to get overly cute here (we can save that for the middle games). He’s the best pitcher we have, and when he’s on his game, he’s as good as anybody left in the playoffs. With off days on Monday and Thursday, spreading a (potential) five-game series out over seven days, a Game 5 start is easily in play. Ultimately, we hope Toronto wins the series earlier, so we won't sweat Game 5 too much yet, but we've locked Gausman into Game 1. Shane Bieber: When the Blue Jays traded for Bieber on deadline day, we immediately started thinking about where he would slot into the playoff rotation. After his debut start with Toronto, we were already starting to pencil him in as a potential Game 1 starter, but at this point, he’s probably the best call for Game 2. He’s come back down to earth a little since, but the key to his start is going to be his efficiency. He averaged just over four pitches per batter and flirted with 100 pitches per game during the regular season, but has yet to cross that threshold with the Jays. The deeper into a game he can go, the less Schneider will need to depend on his bullpen. Bullpen Game: Speaking of that bullpen... After their perfect start to a must-win game down the stretch, there has to be a real conversation about a three-headed monster of Louis Varland, Eric Lauer and Yariel Rodríguez. In their last ‘start,’ those three went six innings of no-hit, shutout baseball while striking out six. The lefty/righty mix also has the potential to cause some fits depending on how New York chooses to line up. The Yankees skewed their handedness matchups in the first two games of the Wild Card series, first against lefty Garrett Crochet (6 RHB started) and then against righty Brayan Bello (6 LHB started). For Game 3 (against lefty starter Connor Early), they went more balanced (5 LHB/4 RHB). The tricky thing with a bullpen game is how that changes the availability of guys out of the 'pen for the other games in the series. Taking that into consideration, and given the extra off days, Game 2 or 4 seems like the best time to go this route. Zooming out slightly, Game 2 feels too early for a fully rested staff to pitch by committee, but I’m not sure that a potential elimination game on the road is the place for it either. Let’s stick a pin in this one. Chris Bassitt: Bassitt ended the season on the IL but is eligible to return for this series. His multifarious pitch mix can keep hitters off balance and has led him to have one of the lowest average exit velocities and hard-hit rates of the qualified pitchers we are discussing today (only Yariel Rodríguez was better in either category). Bassitt is also a vet; at 36 years old, and with 11 years in the league, he has proven his steadiness. A hostile road crowd is unlikely to impact his performance, so he seems like a decent candidate to pitch Game 3 or 4. But wait! Let’s take a quick look at his home/away splits… Bassitt made 32 starts this year, 16 on the road and 16 at Rogers Centre. At home, he boasted an 8-0 record with a 2.71 ERA, but outside of Toronto, he went 3-9 with a 5.47 ERA. “Wins and ERA are terrible ways to evaluate a pitcher!” I hear you yelling. His FIP splits bring things closer, but he was still more than a full run worse on the road (3.48 vs 4.65). So maybe the road start isn’t the way to go, but with Gausman taking Games 1 and 5, that only leaves Game 2 as a home option. Trey Yesavage: The electric wonderboy has only thrown 14 innings at the major league level, but as we saw with the deciding game in the BOS/NYY Wild Card series, some rookie pitchers seem built for the spotlight. Yesavage has a splitter for the lefties and a slider for the righties, combined with a fastball that is league average for speed, but above average for rise, leading him to get the most whiffs in a game by any Blue Jays pitcher not named Gausman this season. Still, throwing a rookie into Yankee Stadium to start a playoff game, depending on the results of the previous games, might be too big of an ask. By my count, we’re now at three potential Game 2 starters (plus a bullpen option) and no one that I’m settled on to pitch on the road. Max Scherzer: Without question, Mad Max is going to want to start a game in this series. We all know the resume: three Cy Youngs, two World Series, future Hall of Famer and a gameday mentality strong enough that when Eric Lauer deadpanned he had been punched in the face by Scherzer for breaking his pre-game concentration, we weren’t immediately sure it was a joke. Scherzer, I 100% believe, would be unaffected by a rowdy crowd in the Bronx. Of course, the problem with Scherzer is that he’s given up four or more earned runs in five of his last six starts. Can we trust a start to the guy that couldn’t get out of the first inning in Kansas City less than two weeks ago? It’s also worth noting that it was facing the Yankees when Scherzer’s pitch tipping was first publicly discussed. Is there a chance that this was all part of some long con to set the Yankees up for a playoff masterclass from the wily vet, or have I just watched too many heist movies? Let’s pencil Max in for Game 4, and then erase it, and then lightly pencil it in again. Maybe the Jays just go out and win the first three games and we don’t have to sweat it until the next round. So there we have it. Six options for five games, and I’m pretty confident that Gausman gets two of five. I’ve cycled through a lot of options in my head this week, and I might have a different answer the second I hit ‘publish’ and every hour after that, but right now, here’s what I would do: Game 1: Gausman Game 2: Bassitt Game 3: Bieber Game 4: Yesavage Game 5: Gausman No Scherzer, and no bullpen game. I believe in Bassitt’s home splits, and if he struggles, I’m confident in Lauer, Varland, Rodríguez and almost every other arm in the bullpen coming in with an off-day the next day. I like the way our bullpen matches up, and I think with this mix of starters, Schneider can utilize them all effectively. All the Blue Jays have gotta do now is go out there and win some games. They don't have to officially announce their roster until tomorrow morning, and when they do, we'll have some more clues. View full article