deanmike

Funnily enough I was going to say exactly this as my (realistic) choice. Weird phenomenon I've noticed across the league for a while is arb guys getting psuedo-vet treatment even if they have options. If roster room opens up by moving Garcia+Richards AAVs, Pearson as an arb player may get pseudo-vet treatment and start the season with the team (and optioned if/when he sucks). Danner is interesting if he can stay healthy, already on the 40-man and projects for K rates and FIP above average relative to total team bullpen projections. A couple of non-40 guys that are interesting to me in a similar sense to Danner are Connor Cooke and TJ Brock Guys like Francis and Yariel are honorable mentions, because realistically if neither of them make the team as the 5th starter or long man out of the pen they probably start in AAA as starter depth.

Door A (Status Quo) C Jansen/Kirk 1B Vlad 2B Schneider 3B IKF SS Bichette LF Varsho CF Kiermaier RF Springer DH Turner Bench: Biggio, Espinal, Vogelbach 8 bullpen arms are Romano, Swanson, Green, Mayza, Cabrera, Garcia, Richards, and probably White as the long man (being out of options and his velo is up). Door B (Clear Biggio+Espinal+Garcia+Richards AAVs and not give Vogelbach 2M if he makes the team, to be able to offer Chapman up to 23.4M AAV and remain under the 2nd threshold per Fangraphs) C Jansen/Kirk 1B Vlad 2B Schneider 3B Chapman SS Bichette LF Varsho CF Kiermaier RF Springer DH Turner Bench: Horwitz, Clement, IKF 8 bullpen arms are Romano, Swanson, Green, Mayza, Cabrera, ???, ???, and White Which door would you choose, and if Door B, who are the 2 arms in the system who you think would take the spots of Garcia+Richards?

I think Espinal is easily replaceable by Clement (only a 0.4 fWAR difference in Steamer600 projections and ZiPS is straight up higher on Clement for the next 3 years). You also avoid losing the asset for nothing, being out of options. Biggio's LH bat is easily replaceable by Horwitz, although that doesn't replace his "positional utility." Oh wait, he has a dogshit track record defensively in any position except 2B/1B, and DS with his projected bat will likely end up being an effective everyday 2B anyways! With Biggio it's more about, I think the team is way too high on him and think he has way more utility than just 2B/1B (they also see 3B/RF). Losing bullpen depth just to clear AAV for Chapman would be tough however. It's not about not having quality arms in the system who can probably step up (as others have mentioned numerous names previously), it's more about the quantity of losing 2 major league bullpen arms. Always nice to have quantity and quality when it comes to pitching depth.

Fangraphs depth charts projects DS to see the largest share of PAs at 2B, but Biggio in general projects to have 77 more total PAs than DS because of his "positional utility", while also projecting for the 2nd largest share of 2B PAs. FGDC also project Biggio (8th most), IKF (6th) and KK (7th) to all have more total PAs than DS (10th), yet he projects as the best bat between those 4 players who can play competent 2B/LF.

For the record, I agree with the take that mid roster players like Biggio, Espinal, Garcia and Richards should all be expendable to bring back a 3 fWAR everyday 3B like Chapman if the cost makes sense. I just don't think the team would actually be willing to move 3/4 of these guys (especially Biggio) to bring back someone like Chapman, even if it's a reasonable AAV contract.

The AAV figures for Yimi+Espinal seem to be taken from Fangraphs (Spotrac slightly differs). Here's the problem. According to Fangraphs the Jays didn't even spend into the 2nd threshold last season (and therefore have never been a 2nd threshold spender in franchise history). Final lux tax payroll last season according to Fangraphs was 246M compared to Spotrac which said roughly 258M (2nd threshold last season was 253M). If you choose to trust Fangraphs payroll figures, then IMO the most optimistic assumption to be made that is also realistic, is an internal budget of 257M for the team's 2024 final lux tax payroll. Assuming otherwise would be extremely unrealistic, because it would just be an Hail Mary optimistic assumption of "yeah I think the Jays will do 2nd threshold for the first time ever in franchise history because I personally still want them to add players as a fan." Opening day budget would probably be roughly 5M below that (252M) to leave in season wiggle room (Fangraphs had their opening day payroll as 5M lower than their final payroll last season, meaning they spent roughly 5M in season if you trust their payroll figures). Alternatively you could choose to assume Atkins uses his in season wiggle room now to bring Chapman back if the cost makes way too much sense from the team's perspective. Fangraphs also has their lux tax commitments for 2024 at roughly 248.7M right now, 8.3M below the 2nd threshold. Even clearing Yimi+Richards+Espinal AAVs would only leave roughly 19.2M for Chapman's AAV. Trusting Fangraphs payroll reality instead of Spotrac's means the 3rd AAV cleared has to be Biggio instead of Richards to leave them with at least 20M AAV for Chapman. The problem with that is, the organization is unrealistically high on Biggio as a LH utility guy on a team that in Atkins' own words would have preferred LH hitter additions if the players are equal in value due to the team lacking LH bats. I wouldn't be surprised if in Atkins' mind 4.2M is a steal for Biggio. What I'm basically getting at is, if you choose to trust Fangraphs payroll reality, there is basically no way Chapman is coming back lol.

This is true, but that is why it's actually going to lead to 3B being more of a Biggio/IKF platoon than IKF being THE 3B as most on this board seem to believe at the moment.

Jays are currently around 12.2M below the 2nd threshold if you look at Spotrac instead of Fangraphs (they have us roughly 8.3M below). If you choose to trust Spotrac, Jays could move Garcia (5.5M AAV), Espinal (2.725M AAV), Richards (2.15M AAV), and not add Vogelbach (2M if he makes the team). Not sure about the financial details on Escobar if he makes the team but let's assume he can't be added to the 40-man either. Attempting to replace those 3 40-man spots with 2 league minimum guys plus a Chapman signing, would leave the Jays with roughly 21M under the 2nd threshold per Spotrac, to sign Chapman in this scenario. I don't think it's impossible, would just get a little uncomfortable in terms of bullpen depth.

Barger/Orelvis/Palmegiani 3B truthers are not gonna like that all 3 of them are playing today, yet Escobar is at 3B loool

Great news on a Sunday morning! AAV is 6M too high compared to what I considered the "reasonable max" offer of 20M AAV. I would have offered 55-60M for 3 years max. For 75-80M I would have had to get a 4th year from Boras. Let's hope we "lose out" on Chapman too if his AAV ends up being north of 20M as well.

Your response was supposed to be: "It's a Kool Aid post! You think I'm gonna mix dogshit with this Kool Aid?"

This garbage Kool Aid post is missing the significant difference in AAV

Maybe this wouldn't be the case with Urshela at 1.5M AAV instead of IKF at 7.5M

lol

Versus... The Toronto If Positive Regressions

Since he's still got rookie status, maybe it belongs in this thread but I also put it in the general thread

Feinsand saying Snell market down to Yankees, Angels or Giants

I think they could easily fit any of the 4 into their lineup. Chapman might seem like the worst fit for them at 3B, but there's no way Rendon stays healthy.

Reading between the lines here, seems like Trout is basically demanding the Angels pay up for at least 1 of the Boras 4 (they are the top 4 FAs remaining by projected fWAR, #5 drops off to Ryu IIRC) or he's gonna want out.

You talking about the Austin Slater rumour, or is this something else?

Rogers mouthpiece saying this about Escobar isn't nothing... Jays might just be lower on Clement than public projections portray him and Espinal is probably getting traded, plus Horwitz has options. Would leave the 3 non C bench players as Vogelbach, Escobar and whoever isn't starting at 2B+3B between Schneider/Biggio/IKF.

Yeah once the FO inevitably punts Espinal in a trade, Vogelbach and Clement could realistically both make the team. Horwitz with options though will probably be out of luck.

Not really. If Vogelbach earns a 26 man spot out of spring he will simply take Clement's 40 man spot because they would have to DFA him to make room on the 26 man for Vogelbach. Escobar there is almost no chance for him, maybe if I'm being as generous as possible I would say 2% chance at most.