deanmike

2 bats are definitely no longer on the menu post Yariel signing. 18-20M projected remaining under the 2nd tax threshold means that signing 1 of Soler/JDM/Joc is going to leave the rest as in season wiggle room for Shatkins.

Kind of starting to seem like we are out on Joc anyway with the rumours he wants to stay on the west coast.

Jays will have roughly 18-20M under the 2nd tax threshold remaining after this deal and depending on what happens with Vlad in arb. For simplicity sake assuming an even AAV spread on this 4 year deal even though it likely won't be. Now it's definitely at the point (for those who were in denial before) where they sign whoever they get between Soler/JDM/Joc and call it an offseason.

You people probably consider me one of the more negative posters on here and even I don't understand the Varsho hate. Just because most of us didn't want to see Moreno as the catcher moved doesn't mean Varsho has to receive hate as a result. Platinum glove level CFs don't grow on trees, especially ones like him that are cost efficient and controllable for multiple years. It is also NOT Varsho's fault that the FO has decided for 2 straight offseasons to deploy KK as the strong side platoon CF and nuke Varsho's WAR upside as a result. Manoah on the other hand is just a straight up worthless lazy fatass Dorito addict minor league bum. Why are people even comparing Varsho to Dorito addict anyway?

Ross Atkins himself disagrees with you. If the Jays don't add any more 3B options to the 26 man roster (which is looking likely) Atkins said 3 way platoon between Biggio/IKF/Espinal. Which I myself disagree with because I just straight up think Espinal is dogshit. But it is what it is, Jays FO still seem to somewhat value him.

The way the roster stands right now it's actually Biggio who likely stands to see the majority of 3B innings if Davis Schneider proves he's not a one season wonder and grabs hold of an everyday spot at 2B. Lineup vs non-high velo RHP (The majority of SP teams see over 162 games) C Jansen/Kirk 1B Vlad 2B Schneider 3B Biggio SS Bo LF Varsho CF Kiermaier RF Springer DH Soler/Joc

Trust ZiPS Vlad being a primary DH soon is already inevitable. Out of the DH options post-Ohtani signing Hoskins has been my #1 preferred target all offseason for this reason (get butcher Vlad out of 1B) but it seems like the Jays want a DH who can cover some OF instead of 1B like with Belt last season.

If BNS is to be believed here, he also believes that the Jays see Davis Schneider as someone who can play some LF in 2024. He is probably the weak side platoon LF if the Jays sign Joc. Jays also probably don't see any weak side platoon FA bats as big enough upgrades on Clement to spend money on them. If the Jays sign Joc they can use games against LHP as a Vlad DH day or maybe even Bo DH day. C Jansen/Kirk 1B Clement/Vlad 2B Espinal/Clement 3B IKF/Espinal SS Bo/IKF LF Schneider CF Varsho RF Springer DH Vlad/Bo There is also the option of DHing Kirk/Jansen against LHP instead of playing Clement, but IMO Jays should just play it safe with catcher rest and try to make sure they both stay healthy. If Soler is the DH add it's even easier for platoon splits with less shuffling because he's an everyday bat.

What makes you think ownership authorizes a budget increase based on how badly last season went even relative to their internal expectations? Being a 2nd threshold repeat tax team after being a 1st year 2nd threshold team last year would automatically be a budget increase.

You think arguably the worst of all these players is the safest bet to get the highest AAV?

Even still Soler/Joc/JDM/Hoskins AAVs will all be closer to 20 than 10.

Pretty safe to assume that the Jays will not be 2nd threshold tax spenders in 2024, which would cap their 2024 luxury tax commitments at 256M. Weird coincidence, that is pretty much exactly what the Jays had in 2023 luxury tax commitments, and Shapiro said 2024 budget would pretty much be the same as 2023. Even the additional charges are similar as a 1st year 2nd threshold tax team has similar additional charges to a 2nd year 1st threshold tax team. Depending on what happens with Vlad in arb Jays have between 26-28M remaining under the 2nd tax threshold (possibly even less if Jays and Vlad come to an agreement on a Bo-type ARB3 avoiding contract for 2025 as well with an AAV higher than Vlad's arb ask of 19.9M). Chapman alone would probably make the Jays call it an offseason and keep the remaining 6-8M as in season wiggle room. Out of curiosity how much in season wiggle room does Shatkins usually leave themselves?

I heavily doubt JDM or Hoskins are options for the Jays. Steamer600 projects JDM at a measly 0.5 fWAR, and Jays simply don't value guys like this. Soler/Joc/Hoskins are all projected between 1.7-1.8 fWAR but there's been nothing linking the Jays to Hoskins, plus they want their DH add to have OF versatility. Soler and Joc have both been heavily linked to the Jays, with respectable Steamer600 projections and both have at least some level of OF versatility. Jays probably end up with one of them.

The Jays definitely do not have enough budget remaining for Chapman plus one of the DH bats, even if it's the DH bat who has the cheapest contract projections who I believe is Joc IIRC.

Don't be surprised when it's 1 instead of 2, is basically what KingSarcasm is getting at. Weird that his source info is being scrutinized now, because originally when Atkins said "closer to 1 than 3" everyone here was convinced that he was just posturing for leverage and there wouldn't actually be only 1 more position player add to the 26 man roster.

Teoscar got 23/1 when he was projected to get something around 45/3 Soler probably gets something similar if not more than Teoscar on a 1 year deal. His contract projections are similar and fWAR projections are higher than Teoscar JDM contract projections vary wildly ranging from 12/1 to 40/2 so I wouldn't be surprised to seem him get a Teoscar-type 1 year deal either Joc is projected at 24/2, a 1 year Teoscar-type deal is probably less than 23M for him but who knows how much less. Giants gave him 19.6M last year Hoskins I've seen his contract projections range from 14/1 to 36/2, so similarly to JDM I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a Teoscar type 1 year deal but it probably doesn't matter when it comes to him because Jays don't seem to be interested anyway Pretty much depends what the FA demand is for these guys

Considering the Jays only have between 26-28M remaining to spend under the 2nd luxury tax threshold (depending on what happens with Vlad in arb), and Teo got 23/1 from the Dodgers, if the Jays give a similar 1 year deal to one of Hoskins/Soler/JDM/Joc, who else would they even be able to add for 3-5M? They'll probably just keep that as deadline wiggle room. One of the everyday bats is probably preferable over Joc at this point so the Jays won't have to DH Kirk and Jansen as much against LHP starters and can rest them more.

I think most people including me assumed 2 more adds to the 26-man roster when Atkins said "closer to 1 than 3." According to KingSarcasm's source it's looking like it'll just be 1. Guys like Horwitz/Clement/Espinal were all mostly seen as non 26-man roster players for 2024. Now it's looking like Espinal is a lock being part of the 3-way 3B platoon and the last roster spot goes to either Clement or Horwitz.

Would it really surprise anyone if KingSarcasm hits again though? If the Jays are really only making 1 more add to the 26-man roster at DH/OF, the RHP/LHP splits would look like this (I will assume Joc to make it harder because Soler/Hoskins/JDM are everyday bats): Vs RHP C Jansen/Kirk 1B Vlad/Horwitz 2B Schneider/Biggio 3B Biggio/IKF SS Bo LF Varsho/Joc CF Kiermaier/Varsho RF Springer/Biggio DH Joc/Vlad/Springer Vs LHP C Jansen/Kirk 1B Vlad/Clement 2B Espinal/Clement 3B IKF/Espinal SS Bo LF Schneider CF Varsho RF Springer DH Kirk/Jansen/Vlad The PAs are pretty much covered if they only add 1 more bat at DH/OF. Whether they are properly covered is another discussion to be had.

Nope, he claims this info is coming from his source. Again he hasn't missed yet.

Based on what I've read about Chapman's connections to multiple current members of the Giants organization, plus KingSarcasm already said Jays won't be bringing Chapman back and he hasn't missed yet, I would be shocked if Chapman doesn't sign with San Francisco.

If by platoon with KK you mean Varsho shifts to CF and Duvall/Grichuk plays LF, it seems the team might be planning to use Babe Schneider in that role to start 2024. If you mean a double platoon where Davis Schneider still plays LF against LHP starters and Duvall/Grichuk starts at CF, that's an interesting idea although I doubt the team sees Varsho as a non everyday player. That would basically make him a strong side platoon LF. If I had to rank those DH options I would probably go with 1) Hoskins, signing him to be the everyday 1B would allow the team to move Vlad to full time DH where he belongs. 2) Soler, everyday bat who can see some games in RF too if needed 3) Joc, strong side platoon bat who can see some games in the OF too if needed 4) Teo, despite being an everyday RF I have him lower than Joc because I just don't want him back. Maybe having an everyday RF like Teo would help manage Springer's health because it would basically make him the DH, although I really don't want to see Teo and his atrocious OF defense back. 5) JDM, I would rather see butcher RF Teo back than add a DH-only type like him. We already have a future DH-only type in Vlad Jr.