Captain_Obvious

Oh please. I said he WAS the best player in 2022 when he played. It is a fact that he produced the most WAR per PA of any Blue Jay going back to June 2021. I never said he will be the best player going forward, but I am betting his value will only go up as he builds more data points going forward. Also, I am fine with trading him for a good player, not s***** ones who will compete with Gurriel in terms of performance.

Extrapolating Jansen's WAR over Kirk's 541 PA results in 5.7 WAR. This is while recovering from a HBP broken hand in the middle of the season. So you can f*** off. Jansen was by far the best Blue Jays position player whenever he played in 2022.

Here it is: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/danny-jansen-643376?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#pitch_tracking In 2022, he killed sliders, cutters, and FBs of all types. He was very good against change ups. Curveball is the only pitch that he sucked against in 2022. He did hit curveballs better in the past though, and it is not a commonly thrown pitch anyways.

Stop making s*** up. At least go check videos which takes 5 minutes. I only checked from 12-15. Most came against off-speed pitches. He hits everything. https://www.mlb.com/video/danny-jansen-homers-15-on-a-fly-ball-to-left-field?cp=MIXED&p=0&q=PlayerId%20%3D%20%5B643376%5D%20Order%20By%20Timestamp%20DESC https://www.mlb.com/video/danny-jansen-homers-14-on-a-line-drive-to-left-center-field?q=danny%20jansen&cp=CMS_FIRST&qt=FREETEXT&p=0 https://www.mlb.com/video/danny-jansen-s-four-hit-night?q=danny%20jansen&cp=CMS_FIRST&qt=FREETEXT&p=0 https://www.mlb.com/video/danny-jansen-homers-12-on-a-fly-ball-to-left-center-field-cavan-biggio-sc?q=danny%20jansen&cp=CMS_FIRST&qt=FREETEXT&p=0

Huh? So what you're saying is that the Blue Jays know something that every other baseball team and analyst do not .. where is it optimal to give your most productive hitter fewer PAs than one of your least productive hitters. No. They wisened up later and started giving him games at DH and batting him higher in the order at the end of the season. They would not have done this otherwise.

The team was misusing Jansen for most of the season by batting him 8th and not giving him enough ABs at DH. It felt like they did not know what they have in Jansen. Luckily, this changed in the last two weeks, so there is hope they realized their mistake.

Kirk and Moreno bring back more value for sure, but I am still OK trading Jansen as long as it is not at a discount. If we're trading for a CF from Arizona, I would be considering trades whose main pieces are Kirk and Varsho, Moreno and Carroll, or Jansen and Thomas.

The roster crunch should NOT impact the decision making process for the value you're getting back, especially when you have multiple options that are far better than just getting 50% of the value back and not improving the team. You can trade one of the other catchers and get their full value back. You can keep Moreno in AAA as he continues to cover in terms of power production (he won't likely be an immediate upgrade anyways). You can explore different positions (Jansen at 1B, Moreno at 2B or OF, Kirk at .... Jansen at 1B). I do not know how many times this needs to be repeated, but Jansen has been one of the best offensive players in the game since June 2021. You do not dump players like that for pennies on the dollar. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2022&month=1000&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-06-01&enddate=2022-10-08&sort=18,d He has an above average walk rate, very good strike out rate, barrell's the ball very well, is an average base runner, and is at least an average catcher. The underlying advanced and statcast metrics support Jansen's results. He has no chronic injuries and no reason to believe any of his previous injuries will recur. He is the perfect candidate to snatch early before he starts building data points that make him much more expensive (think Bautista early 2010). If I were another team, I would target Jansen hoping Toronto's FO makes a mistake and trade him at a discount. Then I would extend him for a reasonable contract (5 Yr 40M-60M), and then enjoy having one of the most valuable assets in baseball.

I highly doubt any team values Jansen more than Moreno. It is about what they're willing to pay. If I were another team, I would target Jansen hoping the Blue Jays FO is illogical like Terminator and would give him up for basically nothing. The ROI could be much higher if they target Jansen.

So you want to dump a high-value asset for nothing because you have replacements? Thanks for proving my point that your trade idea originates from a s***** mindset that seeks do the trade for the sake of making a trade.

On the other hand, we have people as blind as the Blue Jays were last year when they batted Jansen 8th behind Tapia and played him part time. Yea.. let's trade the catcher who topped the team with a 140wRC+ despite a HBP broken hand for a league average outfielder that may or may not be better than Gurriel. Brilliant idea.

It absolutely does not. O'Neill was not good last year, suffered leg injuries (not HBP), and his production can be mostly matched by Gurriel who is worse defensively but better offensively. O'Neill has been injury prone as well (only full season is 2021). Trading Jansen for someone who produced half Jansen's WAR in 50% more PA in 2022 is stupid.

O'Neil's 2021 season is an outlier. More importantly, his most recent performance is not great. You're valuing O'Neil closer to his 2021 year than his 2022 year when it should be the other way around. That being said, my main issue is more about how it improves the Blue Jays because I wouldn't pick Hicks over any of the existing BP arms, so no improvement there. O'Neil's upgrade value over Gurriel is not significant enough (1-2 WAR). I would rather keep Jansen whose performance trajectory is actually up.

How does this help the Blue Jays exactly?

Great. Vladdy will surely average at least 1 wasted challenge per game.

Yes. However, his last injury was a HBP that broke his hand I believe. That is probably bad luck.

If you can't get Jansen's true value back in a trade in the off-season, then just play him full-time for the first half of 2023 and trade him after. I am confident his value will skyrocket when he is in the top 10 in WAR in MLB.

Qualifying offer is 20M. Allocating 20M to Stripling is not the best use of budget resources.

No way Stripling gets 20M. You can add 5M or 6M and get Rondon. I will build a statue for Atkins if he gets Carroll.

He sucked in April 2021. Updated glasses in May. Became a monster since June 2021. The injuries are unfortunate, but I do not think they recurring. Just random ones which gives me hope going forward. The Blue Jays playing him part time when healthy did not help either.

Jansen is the best post season performer as well

As good as Abreu is, they would be crazy to reject 2 years of a 4+ war catcher for 5 years of 1.2 war reliever. Jansen's stat cast metrics are elite as well. He hits the ball as hard as Kirk with much better barrel%. He is an average base runner as well.

Trading a 140+ wRC+ C for a good reliever is nuts.

I know it does not work exactly like this, but extrapolating Jansen's production over 500 PA results in a 5+ WAR player. This is similar to his production rate in 2021 after he fixed his glasses in May. He was actually getting better with time as he was further removed from injuries. I am betting he increases his value significantly with normal playing time in the first half of 2023.

A trade with fair return is definitely the ideal scenario. But if there is no fair trade for whatever reason, rotating the best offensive players you have through DH spot is not the end of the world. I am pretty sure Jansen would be fine at 1B occasionally. Moneyball says so.