I mean that's the point. Getting him signed with some question marks allows you to get him for cheap. There is definitely a risk. The risk in my mind is about health not performance. His underlying numbers are too good.
5/40 seems reasonable given he will make less than 4M in arb in 2023. But if he has a full season with last years numbers, he will be looking for 15M per year at least. It is similar to Bautista's sitiation, if AA waited 1 more year before extending him, no way he stays a Blue Jay for long.