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Captain_Obvious

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Everything posted by Captain_Obvious

  1. Captain_Obvious
    While it is true that he is slow and fat, I doubt being slim and fast would change much given how often he hits ground balls and how hard they are.
  2. Captain_Obvious
    I am pretty sure that is not Vlad's main problem. The main problem is that he hits the ball hard on ground more than anyone in baseball.
  3. Captain_Obvious
    While a good CF does very well defensively in LF or RF, a team would not be maximizing their value there. It is like playing Chapman at 1B; he would probably do it very well, but there is a lot of unrealized value. Arizona still gets a lot of value by playing Carroll or Thomas in LF or RF, but another team could maximize their value better by playing them in CF. The smart move by Arizona is trading one of their CFs and getting the other team to pay the equivalent of their full value in CF.
  4. Captain_Obvious
    Watch Ryu throwing 96 MPH and providing 7 WAR next year.
  5. Captain_Obvious
    That is a fair question. Whether a GM is good or not is subjective. For me, I think Atkins is an above average GM because I like most of the moves he makes, and the ones I don't like are not egregiously bad. I did not like the White trade. I did not like the Chapman extension (taking some risk with little upside). I did not like the Berrios trade. I did not like Merrifield trade. But I thought they had an OK chance of working out or might be inconsequential. I liked the Berrios extension, the Springer deal, the Gausman deal, the Ryu deal, the Chapman trade, the Bass + Pop trade, the Cimber trade, the Richards trade, and not overpaying for Semien or Ray after their career years. My opinion of Atkins will not change based how these moves work in hindsight.
  6. Captain_Obvious
    This is exactly how pro sports work. You make the best decision given the data you have at the time. Are you not going to provide your answers to my two hypothetical questions?
  7. Captain_Obvious
    Which pitchers do you hate?
  8. Captain_Obvious
    What a dumb argument. Here are a couple of questions: 1- If Atkins manages to sign Judge to 5 year 100M contract in the off-season, would you consider this a good deal and that Atkins made a wise decision? The answer is Yes. 2- If Judge proceeds to hit like Tapia right after signing that contract, does that mean Atkins is a moron and should be fired for signing Judge? The answer is No. The decision Atkins made is still the right one based on the data available at the time he made it.
  9. Captain_Obvious
    Your extreme examples did not require a time-traveling machine. Plenty of readily available data indicated the contracts were awful. Wells was already regressing and everyone was up in arms because we tied so much money to the wrong player. For Berrios, he had consistently performed as a borderline #1 starter for years. He was also young. Not a single person or system predicted Berrios will have the bad numbers he had in 2022.
  10. Captain_Obvious
    As I said, I wouldn't do it if I were Arizona. LTBF would though. I am counting on incompetence. A more balanced trade would be Kirk for Varsho. Lefty bat who is a very good CF with similar years of control. Arizona gets: - Very good defensive catcher. - Superior contact and plate discipline. - Younger player. Toronto gets: - One of the best defensive CFs in the game. - Lefty power bat. - Superior base running. Edit: Just checked baseball trade values. They have Varsho as 2X the value of Kirk. I did not expect that.
  11. Captain_Obvious
    I don't think he has made a move that made me go "WTF?!?" and go into despair. Some moves such as the Berrios extension might not be looking great today, but at the time they looked reasonable.
  12. Captain_Obvious
    Yes, but is 2022 Vlad representative of his true talent level? I obviously would not do it either if I were the Arizona, but I see many people focusing on Vlad's 2021 version so maybe there is a chance.
  13. Captain_Obvious
    LOL. I guess I was fooled.
  14. Captain_Obvious
    If they overvalue Vlad the way many do, you never know.
  15. Captain_Obvious
    No way. We should think long term. Vlad for Corbin Carroll solves multiple problems. It significantly improves our OF for years to come, and reduces the clown factor in the dugout thus increasing overall effectiveness of the team. Not to mention how it would improve infield turf condition at home.
  16. Captain_Obvious
    Don't know if you are serious. Tapia is nothing like Bautista at the same stage. You downplay walks, but swinging at everything and walking at a rate of less than 4% will never produce good results. I wouldn't want Tapia at league minimum let alone at 5M.
  17. Captain_Obvious
    Trade Vlad for Corbin Carroll. (14M saved) Trade Gurriel for lottery tickets. (5.5M saved) Do not tender Tapia. (5M saved) Do not exercise Merrifield option (6M saved) Sign Rondon (25M added) Sign Swanson (15M added) Payroll delta (+9M) - Should be doable Line up: C - Jansen/Kirk/Moreno 1B - Jansen/Biggio 2B - Bo/Espinal/Lopez SS - Swanson/Espinal 3B - Chapman/Espinal RF - Springer/Lopez CF - Carroll/Lopez LF - Teoscar/Lopez DH - Rotate catchers, Springer, and Teo Batting order: Springer (RF) Bo (2B) Carroll (CF) Teoscar (LF) Jansen (1B) Kirk (DH) Chapman (3B) Moreno © Swanson (SS) Rotation: Rondon Gausman Manoah Berrios Stripling or his replacement Bullpen: Romano Bass Pop Garcia Cimber Mayza Kikuchi Pearson
  18. Captain_Obvious
    You're right. CF is not the biggest problem defensively. SS, LF, and RF are. Signing Nimmo (29) might allow us to maintain CF defense levels while allowing Springer (33) to age in RF or LF over the next couple of years.
  19. Captain_Obvious
    Which metrics say Springer is average? https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=230&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=13,d&page=2_30 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=230&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=19,d Getting a better CF allows Springer to move RF and Teoscar to LF. This would be much better than what we had this year.
  20. Captain_Obvious
    Trade Kirk. Let's not trade the best offensive player on the team since June last year.
  21. Captain_Obvious
    The 5.5M is better used on a major area of need especially when there are league minimum options available internally who can provide similar value over 300 PA.
  22. Captain_Obvious
    You don't need the 4th OFer to have wRC+ of 114. You just need him to be as valuable than Gurriell overall. Someone like Otto Lopez can give you the same value with better defense, versatility, and base running. He also has room to become better. The 5.5M can make a big difference for going the extra mile to sign free agents that will really move the needle (Nimmo or Rondon).
  23. Captain_Obvious
    He provides deep negative value defensively in LF, let alone CF, and is a terrible base runner. These are the main things you look for in a 4th OF. Also, he is set to make 5.5M which could be used elsewhere.
  24. Captain_Obvious
    Why do they have to trade Teo to get Nimmo? Teo in LF, Springer in RF, Nimmo in CF. Gurriel traded for lottery tickets (5.5M saved) . Tapia not tendered (4M saved). It should not be hard to find a new 4th OF.
  25. Captain_Obvious
    This is exactly what I am talking about when I say stop being a drama queen. It is just one game so stop overreacting over a 1 game sample. Seattle lost a game to the f***ing Royals after leading 11-2 going into the bottom of the six. Castillo was pitching too. Perhaps Seattle should consider their rotation and bullpen as a weakness and over-react by focusing on that instead of the big picture because of that one game. The big picture for the Blue Jays is obvious. Their outfield and SS defense is at the bottom of the MLB. Their bullpen is middle of the pack. Their priority should be fixing one of the worst defenses first, which will also help overall pitching numbers. Adding a starter is also important. Adding an elite BP arm is a luxury.
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