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jmomcc

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Everything posted by jmomcc

  1. jmomcc
    If we don't get either, i'd pivot to okamoto and imai. Then make some trades to clean it up and start out like that.
  2. jmomcc
    I was listening to a podcast with a BA guy on and he said Okamoto is a 55 (above average) at third and a 70 at first (possibly one of the best in baseball). Other people seem lighter on him. Saw a max muncy comparison somewhere and he's more a 45 at third than a 55 i think. I just can't see us risking it with Murakami.
  3. jmomcc
    The problem with him isn't so much the problem with velo. Its that pretty much everyone thinks he will either not play third at even a fringe average level, and we can't sign another first baseman on big money.
  4. jmomcc
    I'd choose bo. i also think there won't be a cap but they will make the luxury tax so heavy that no one including the dodgers will go more than 20/30 million over it and not for multiple seasons. You can look at that two ways. Grandfather in the spend or don't go crazy.
  5. jmomcc
    No, 41 according to fangraphs.
  6. jmomcc
    There is a natural trade for berrios where the money could be manageable but it would require frontloading. Berrios to San Diego for deep cut prospects (preller is a good scout, there will be teenagers in the system that are interesting). They are desperate for pitching. They have two real starters essentially and they have like i think 30 million to spend. Give them Berrios, and 15m to all of his salary this year, and get some prospects. I think that is reasonable. They get a free or almost free pitcher who can eat innings which they really really need. I agree that Lauer is an obvious trade candidate. It we did get tucker, i'd also consider dealing varsho as an extension would be unlikely at that point. I also think they might trade heineman and schneider next year, but probably not this year. Edit: i do think berrios will move. He loves routine and has essentially never pitched out of the pen. If not him lauer.
  7. jmomcc
    So, they have to dfa someone to accomodate rogers. Any predictions?
  8. jmomcc
    I'd say the main problem with paying for defense is mainly - defense is more improvable by coaching and positioning, so less valuable - it regresses more quickly than hitting. You can maintain hitting value longer than defense so its more available in free agency as players are 29-31 So,'its generally something you need to develop yourself in house. But we did trade for him young enough that he shouldn't regress much. So, as a big market team its fine. He would not be fine for someone like tampa or cleveland though. The only guys they can pay are guys who rake and have defensive value. So, finding a trade for him would be tough. I'd rather keep him.
  9. jmomcc
    I would trade berrios and lauer and sign max to that contract happily. Also, Gimenez is actually younger than i thought. For some reason i thought he was like 29. Yea that contract is fine as he shouldn't regress too much defensively by the time it finishes.
  10. jmomcc
    Bullpen is interesting. No options - Hoffman - Garcia - Rogers - Berrios - Lauer - Nance - Bruhl Options - Varland - Little - Fluharty - Fisher - Lee - Schultz Rule 5 - have to be on 26 man - Bastardo - Miles Not on 40 but getting paid - Yariel Feels like there almost has to be trades. Bruhl actually had pretty good underlying numbers last year, so he might be a harder cut than you'd think as well.
  11. jmomcc
    Fair but isn't that a good combo compared to little. He can throw the sinker for strikes which allows the curve to play. If little could throw the sinker for strikes then guys couldn't lay off the knuckle curve. Although he couldn't really throw either in the end.
  12. jmomcc
    Yea Keller and Rogers are to me sneaky elite additions.
  13. jmomcc
    His sinker and curve are both good pitches in my opinion and he has better command.
  14. jmomcc
    I love the idea of newcomb. He would be our best leftie immediately and can start as well. I think a team like san diego might just sign him as a cheap starter though.
  15. jmomcc
    8/250, get that signed right now and let's move on to Bo.
  16. jmomcc
    The dodgers to some degree sign guys they expect to get injured. We don't so we might end up in a spot where we have 9 starters and 4 relievers.
  17. jmomcc
    If they waive him, and another team doesn't pick him up, then they are on hook for his salary. This to me is obviously not a 'good' thing. They signed someone who is a net negative essentially. However, because we are a big market team it doesn't really affect us.
  18. jmomcc
    On reddit people are saying there are rumours in korea that we are signing riley thompson. Starter depth or bullpen depth i'd guess. I kind of doubt it would be a major league deal.
  19. jmomcc
    He has an option so leave him as depth in triple a i think
  20. jmomcc
    121 is 21% above 100. That's quite a wide range for 'roughly' 100. I also think that's probably just from experience. There are only so many guys who could be 50FV or above at any one time. Edit: its been as high as 137 and as low as 112 but none of their beginning of the year rankings has been within 10 of 100 recently.
  21. jmomcc
    Yea their little blurbs for each grade are identical to fangraphs essentially. I need to wrap my head around how adjusted grades work, but they seem interesting.
  22. jmomcc
    I don't usually look at their top 100 but at the 'board'. You can see on there for the beginning of the year report last year, they went to 121 propects 50fv or better. By the update it was 95, presumably because of promotions. 2024 was similar. So, they don't seem married to a 100 as a cutoff.
  23. jmomcc
    All star is just shorthand. Every team gets one. It translates to something like 2 war projection for average and 3 war for plus. Obviously its not foolproof. Some 45fv guys end up being stars. Its POSSIBLE that 60fv on BA means a 2 war projection. Seems unlikely. I also really doubt it is arbitrary at all. In fact i think if you asked eric longenhagen and someone at BA to describe a 60fv guy, the answer would be extremely similar. These are based on scouting scales that have existed for ever.
  24. jmomcc
    50 means average everyday player pretty much everywhere. That's the only way i've heard anyone use it. 45 is fringe average, 50 is average. 55 above average, 60 is plus. I'd be surprised if BA is different. I listen to their pods and they talk in those terms.
  25. jmomcc
    That does give info that you can't get at a glance in fam graphs usually so its useful. But kind of breaks the fangraphs prospect model value if you use it for that
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