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I think the argument against this, and reading between the lines of fangraphs and keith law review of the trade,. they believe that Cease will almost always underplay his peripherals. That he's a guy that fip overrates consistently. So, for them Fried is a better pitcher.

Yesavage, Manoah and Fluharty in ten years of the draft is not that great. Or even good. However, yea the free agency signings have been truly excellent. That Gausman deal might be one of the best ever. We aren't really a team that changes pitchers alot imo unless they are really broken but it will be interesting to see what they do with Cease.

If we did somehow trade berrios.. i'd like to get Ponce. He has tons of velo and should strike guys out. Could be in the pen for playoffs.

The thing about Cease as well, he seems like he has a decently high floor. But could you get to more ceiling by just getting his fastball down to around 33%, his slider down to 33%, and helping him get comfortable with his other pitches to fill the rest. That could solve some of his home run problems on its own.

The best case scenario with Berrios is that he - 1. Sees this next year as a contract year - 2. Gets back a tick of velo, maybe he was playing hurt - 3. Takes the playoff snub as motivation to go to driveline or just to our pitching lab and work on his shapes. He's really not that old. If he threw up a 3 win year next year with better stuff, he could opt out and get less per year but a 4 year deal for a bigger amount. .

I'd be ok missing on Tucker. Give me Bo on the smaller deal. Cease seems like a good deal to me. He's projected for 4 wins. Let's say he starts with that and regresses by half a win a year. That would leave you like $20 m short. That's fine and reasonable considering how durable he is.

Before he got injured fangraphs had him as a high probability back end starter who would debut last summer. I'd be really happy if two of yesavage, ricky and stanifer became starters long term. They all have some reliever risk.

If i was them i would because there is no point in having payroll at all right now. I just want draft picks and leave roster spots open to try to find guys.

Their long term plan should be too be bad for at least the next three years and draft well. And figure out what succeeds in their park.

How about this for a crazy idea. Assuming bo goes elsewhere. We trade - Berrios to the rockies for - Bryant - Tovar - prospects Bryant is completely dead money. He is probably going to have like 50 PAs per season as he seems to have a chronic back injury. He should retire but he won't without getting probably all that money. The rockies are rebuilding anyway, this gives them a completely free cap, and berrios putting up 1.5 wins a year is fine there. Yes it would put us even more up in the tax but who cares.

The reasonable best case is that he was injured last year. That velo drop was a decent bit and he's still quite young. Let's say next year he is somewhere between 2023 and 2024 berrios again which isn't good but is say 170 innings and 2 wins. The best best case is that he is pissed, and goes to driveline or tread or something and works on pitch design and gets back to more a 3 win pitcher. Then he opts out. What we need is a team like the guardians are with us, Someone to be there when we need rid of shaky contracts.

I'm sure we wouldn't be the only team to want to do this so he'll have a selection, but holderman on a small deal has options and has good stuff. If he can locate it.

Reese McGuire, Taylor Saucedo, Trent Thornton, Josh Winckowski and Sem Robberse are all the ex jays i noticed got non tendered. McGuire seems like he should stick somewhere eventually as a second catcher. Saucedo seems like he is worth a 40 man spot somewhere as well.

He should try Japan. Or lose weight and go to driveline.

I looked at the yankees before. Its much lower than this. Of course this isn't really the whole picture, if you trade for a pitcher in A ball, you essentially developed them right? Also, signing someone and changing tons of stuff about them (the rays and the guardians do this) and getting more out of them is development but harder to quantify. If we are just going by original signing though, i could easily do all 30 teams. It takes like 5 minutes per team.

Yea drafting and developing pitchers and international scouting i'd say are their 1A/1B excellent skills.

I doubt many teams have the dodger's number beat over the last ten years. And i am pretty sure no one has 12 pitchers drafted after the first round producing positive WAR for them over the last ten years. I'd also say just from sheer volume, at least two of this group will end up also being really good. Sheehan already projects as better than our entire staff. I didn't even realize we could not be done. It was done already lol. The dodgers were and are excellent at pitching development. We are showing some tentative signs of improvement but are unlikely to ever get to their level.

I decided to go back and have a look to see if my belief is correct. In the last ten years, so since the 2016 draft, the dodgers have signed and developed 13 pitchers (who produced positive WAR) to produce 25.2 WAR. So, about 277m in value before salary, at $11m per WAR. There was one one first round pick. One is an unsigned draft free agent. The jays have produced 3 pitchers with positive WAR in that time span who have produced 6.1 WAR. For a total of $67.1m value pre salary. There are 2 first rounders on that list. I didn't include adult international free agents. I also didn't include drafted pre 2016. That would give the jays romano, borucki and Mayza who were credibly developed by this front office, but would give the dodgers Beuhler and Urias at least. They also used one of their top pitchers (pepiot) who only contributed .4 WAR to the number above but got them glasnow in a trade. I didn't really look into what they have traded away beyond that. I'd say their future outlook is pretty good. Sheehan projects to 3.7 wins this year at 200 innings which would be best on our team by the same metric. Of course, they might trade him. They also have a whole bunch of guys where i'd expect one to pop into something more. Maybe Wrobleski. This is all while constantly competing with low draft pools.

I would not extend him. I think there is still real risk he ends up a super nasty reliever. I think i'd only extend position players this early generally.

We knew they hate drafting pitching but this is even more extreme. I think they might be a serious contender for someone like Valdez. Elias needs do well this year to keep his jobZ

Isn't that what Ali G used to call people lol? Anyway, i'll pass.

The orioles must think Rodriquez is done health wise. Or at least extremely dodgy.

Okamoto really looks like our kind of hitter.

Well as soon as someone tells me that 3 starters going 160 innings is some kind of inevitability, i want to make some money. I'd offer you odds on the sun rising tomorrow. You know its happened at least 5 years in a row so..

You won't offer odds on a certain bet. What an odd decision.