Ray
-
Posts
3,704 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Toronto Blue Jays Videos
2025 Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects Ranking
Toronto Blue Jays Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Toronto Blue Jays Draft Pick Tracker
News
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Ray
-
.312/.407/.404, 147 wRC+ since May 1st. Especially impressive considering he got bumped up to High-A in his first full season out of college. He's handling it exceptionally well.
-
Cal Stevenson - 130 wRC+ in the FSL. Walking as much as he's striking out (13.5%). Goes oppo as much as he goes pull side (39.4% vs. 39.8%) Not much power to speak of so far, but the FSL is a death trap for power and he could grow into it. Hopefully he can add some loft to his swing. At the very least, he's making consistent contact and getting on base. Between that and and his scouting reports on his elite defense, he's looking exciting.
-
Thought exercise: If we were the team trading for Marcus Stroman, what would we be trading away in order to get him? Pearson and Bichette would firmly be off the table. Maybe Pardinho (backend Top 100), Patrick Murphy (interesting and throws 100), and Zeuch (close to ready MLB arm)
-
Not mutually exclusive. The quantity you get back could be good quality. Either way, I don't expect teams are willing to part with their elite prospects for Stroman. Trading Kyle Tucker away for Marcus Stroman would be a waste of Tuckers prospect value. Imagine another team asking for Bo Bichette for 1.5 years of Marcus Stroman. We'd probably hang up the phone laughing.
-
Looks like Pearson is getting close to a promotion to AAA: Had it not been for the missed year, there's a good chance we'd be seeing him in the major this season.
-
Giles/Stroman together would definitely bring back a better calibre prospect as the centerpiece (i.e. 1 of Kiriloff, Lewis, Tucker, Whitley). Separately, you may be looking a Top 50-100 guy or 2 for each of them + maybe an interesting throw in. BPA would definitely be brought back by packaging them together, but at the same time, you should always look to horde when it comes to prospects. It's an interesting dilemma for sure.
-
Article:
-
John Lott did an absolutely fantastic article on Adam Kloffenstein and how pro-ball has changed him. Also contains some good nuggets on Nate Pearson, Aaron Sanchez, and Jordan Groshans. All of them really seem like fantastic kids.
-
Keep these podcasts coming. Love hearing anything and everything about podcasts, especially when the farm system is as vibrant as it is right now!
-
Here's a potential topic you guys could explore in next episode: Guess who leads all minor league shortstops in wRC+ since 2006 (min 1000 PA)? https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league/?pos=ss&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,17,18,30,32,33&stats=bat&qual=1000&type=1&team=&season=2006&seasonEnd=2019&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=18,1 That would be our very own Bo Bichette. He had a better minor league wRC+ than the following SS: Carlos Correa (142 wRC+) Xander Bogaerts (142 wrC+) Fernando Tatis Jr. (139 wrC+) Javier Baez (139 wrC+) Trea Turner (136 wrC+) Corey Seager (135 wrC+) Ozzie Albies (125 wrC+) Gleybar Torres (125 wrC+) His underlying numbers look similar to Fernando Tatis Jr. with a lower K% and similar Spd. Kid looks unbelievably good.
-
One of them was definitely Jeff Bagwell in 1994. I remember stumbling upon his bb-ref and being shocked at his 1994 season. It was insanely good. Put up 8 something WAR in the strike shortened season and also won MVP I believe.
-
Data is fine, and I obviously support it since it's proven. But my latter point still stands that "below average" velocity paints a very broad stroke. 93 mph in this day and age would technically be considered "below average", when in reality, that is a perfectly fine fastball velocity. Marcus Stroman has a 92.7 avg fb velo, and yet is in the 40th percentile of fb velocity which would squarely put him below average. You can have great sustained success sitting 92-93 mph. Anything lower than that, you're obviously pushing your luck.
-
It's the classic risk aversion vs. risk taker debate. The 99th percentile outcome of a Rk league pitcher is that he never makes the majors, with <1% chance that he becomes a starter. Yeah you could "dream on him", but it doesn't make it the better deal over a safer McKinney type, who has a much higher chance to become a 2 WAR contributor given more playing time. If you want to judge them at face value, fine. But it's also fair to give some of these players more rope rather than writing them off as "nothing" in their first full year of facing major league pitching, ala Billy McKinney. There are plenty of examples of players getting more and more comfortable as the years go by. It's probably applicable to most major leaguers playing today. Most didn't blossom until they were 1 or 2 or 3 years into the league or grew closer to the major league average age.
-
Cavan Biggio graduates from the Top 30 on MLB.com and Joey Murray enters This is what MLBPipeline has to say about Joey Murray:
-
This is also the same guy whose entire business is built on the fact that he can improve velocity. I'm not sure he would ever say otherwise. While I'd much rather have flamethrowers than crafty guys, I also disagree that it's the "single most important variable". Pitching is a nuanced art. There is no single most important factor. Lower velocity leads you to have a higher margin for error, but throwing hard also has its downsides. Not to mention, "below-average velocity" is a bit misleading. It's technically true, but I'd be very comfortable if my starter was sitting 92-93 mph on his fastball which would technically be a below average fb by velo. The average gets tremendously skewed in this era where everyone is throwing hard.
-
You could argue Ryan Borucki as well, who relies a lot on deception. Albeit, he has a fantastic changeup, and apparently his velo was up in Spring Training too.
-
Absolutely. We really can't evaluate most trades properly as fans. The vast majority of the time we're completely in the dark about what other names are exchanged, what exactly attracted some front offices to certain prospects/players etc. You add on the extra layer of complexity and volatility that is player evaluation and it becomes sort of like high stakes gambling. That being said, as a fan, I'd be satisfied if my trade asset returns a package deemed market value and happy if it returns anything more. That would be determined by players of similar mold traded in recent years and their return. Subtracting or adding to the package from there given the caliber of my trade asset.
-
It's completely fair to characterize it as non-exciting. But to say we "lost the trade" is disingenuous. At least without knowing what other options there were on the table. Also, everyone's favorite GM on here Brian Cashman himself loved Drury and also mentioned that they've been in talks to acquire him for years. (before they did). So take from that what you will.
-
Highest Hard-Hit% of his career Highest Barrel% of his career Highest xWOBACON of his career There's some signs, but he needs to make more consistent contact. He has been crushing it in July so far.
-
I'm not quite sure about that. Even if you scratch out Billy McKinney from the trade, the likelihood of Brandon Drury becoming an everyday player at the time was order of magnitudes higher than a Juan De Paula or Elvis Luciano type Rk league lottery ticket pitching a single inning for you in the majors. The floor was also relatively safe for him. Had he stayed a bench player and not broke out, he still had room on a playoff team (see 2017 Arizona Dbacks). It also wasn't just Atkins who recognized Drury as a potential breakout candidate. Cashman himself gave up a pretty decent haul in Nick Solak and Taylor Widener for Drury. It's not hard to see why. He was doing well in AAA, he had a major migraine issue corrected, he was still relatively young. All the ingredients were, and to be honest, are still there.
-
I'll be interested to see where you guys rank Nick Allgeyer and Zach Logue! Cheers.
-
Being disappointed in the return without knowing what other deals were on the table is almost equally unreasonable. If Atkins turned out Clint Frazier to get Drury/McKinney, then that is obviously incompetent, but he legitimately may have taken the best players available. I'm not entirely sure what more was expected from 36 year old JA Happ. Yu Darvish was traded for a fringe Top 100 guy in Willie Calhoun at the time + 2 throw ins in 2017. That served as a ceiling of what Happ could've brought, and likelier much lower since Happ never had the upside that Darvish did, plus the age factor. If we were looking at something below that prospects wise, it's not a stretch to say that Drury/McKinney was indeed the better package.
-
The fact that people are pointing to the Happ trade to assess the future returns for Stroman/Giles is legitimately hilarious. Keep the laughs coming.
-
Are the Radio Scouts guys gonna update their Top 50 Jays prospect list soon? Now would be a good time since it's post J2 and pretty much all draft picks have signed. I honestly look forward to your guys' list moreso than any other outlet simply because they don't really follow any single teams prospects day-to-day.
-
Corbin Martin out with Tommy John surgery. Another significant blow to the Astros pitching depth.