Ray

Donovan seems like a pretty great fit and I would be pretty happy if we can land him. He also seems like the type of player we can land without shipping major league pieces like Barger.

I know reports are saying Ketel Marte is off the block, but if Atkins can somehow pull it off, it’ll be an all time great offseason. Prefer Marte to both Tucker and Bichette

Morosi just said Mets expect him to play 3B uh….they do know about his 36th percentile arm strength…right?

Hasn’t there already been reporting that the Jays have a long term offer out for Tucker? This seems like last minute posturing by his agent to extract as much out of the Jays as possible. I just can’t see him accepting a short term deal given his recent injury history. And he’s not as young as Bellinger was when he was going to year to year with opt outs. I may be wrong, but this makes me even more confident that we’ll land Tucker.

Varsho is definitely a Boras client. Gregor Chisholm just mentions it again this his latest article: https://www.thestar.com/sports/blue-jays/daulton-varsho-agrees-to-one-year-deal-with-blue-jays-as-he-prepares-to-be/article_585ac6fa-1be7-4ce0-bea7-fd77460c0b26.html

I think the Tigers are going to end up winning here. Arbitration is all about traditional stat comps to players who had similar service time and have also gone through arbitration. David Price is the one who sticks out immediately (coming off recent Cy Young + multiple top finishes) and he ended up getting $19.75M, BUT he was also Super 2 so he had an extra year of arbitration. A 3x jump in salary for Skubal seems insane in year 3 of arbitration, even taking into account general monetary and baseball salary inflation. I hope he wins, but I find it very doubtful the arb panel will rule for him.

Borderline agent malpractice tbh If the Jays are spending $250M+ on anyone, it will 100% be Kyle Tucker

Has it been reported how Canadian MLB playoff television revenue is distributed? We know that national TV revenue in the USA is split between all 30 teams, with playoff teams getting a bigger share of the pie for playoff tv broadcasts, but if Rogers/Sportsnet just pay a licensing fee to MLB for the rights to broadcast in Canada, that would mean they recoup 100% of the advertising $ that they make during Jays playoff tv broadcasts + get their share of the national US broadcast money too. So they are essentially double-dipping.

Worth noting there's a ton of big money contracts coming off the books next season: Gausman, Springer, Bieber. Smaller ones like Straw, Garcia, Varsho, and Lauer as well. I agree it feels financially irresponsible to sign both Bo and Tucker to long term deals unless we can swing a trade to offload salary, but they would only have a absurdly high payroll for 1 season before it tapers down again.

False on Ohtani. That was not a case being outbid. Ohtani and his agent basically set their own terms and contract offer, called all the teams that they were interested in (Dodgers, Jays, Giants, Angels), and all but the Angels agreed. Had the Dodgers not agreed to it. Link: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39105636/inside-shohei-ohtani-700-million-contract-los-angeles-dodgers

Arizona has been my thought all along. I can't shake the feeling that they are going to move Marte before his 10/5 rights kick in. And objectively, they need a lot of help in that pitching staff and need someone to eat innings Berrios + cash + Barger + 1 of Macko/Francis for Marte. Not sure if that gets it done, but would start convos around a Barger + Berrios package and see what else they would want.

There’s another shoe to drop here imo. Arguably have a surplus of good pitching. My guess is we’ll trade out of that surplus to land a position player. Hello Ketel Marte?

Most exciting offseason for this team, maybe ever? it’s not even the Winter Meetings, and we’ve retained Bieber, and added Cease and Ponce

Love this. Ponce was one of those value deal players that a lot of teams were after and we got it done. Can start or relieve with high velocity This must be what it feels like to be Dodgers and Mets. I know we’re not quite there yet in terms of absolute payroll, but we might be since there is definitely going to be an impactful position player add.

So it’s actually closer to $182M over 7 years with the deferrals? Thats basically what he was projected to get Massive W by Boss Atkins to get the best pitcher on the board this early in the offseason for basically what he was projected to get.

Given the prices on SP, is it possible that Berrios actually has some surplus value despite that contract? Certainly feels like they could move him if they really wanted to.

One thing I totally forgot about: The ABS challenge system will be in place next year. Swing and miss stuff is going to become even more highly valued from now on.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Bichette is ready to re-sign with the Jays asap and they're holding out for Tucker.

This is definitely one of those deals agents and players take a note of, especially this early in the offseason. It screams "come win with us" Sign Tucker Trade for Marte Sign a middle reliever Sign Helsley or Devin Williams as bounceback candidate DREAM offseason

No one can argue that Cease is one of those dudes who legitimately may be able to win a Cy Young in the next 7 years. Cost is what it is. Maybe 1 extra year than what he was projected to get. It may end up being close to projections in NPV due to deferrals anyway.

1. Cease 2. Gausman 3. Bieber 4. Yesavage 5. Berrios/Lauer What a f***ing rotation

Gausman replacement after next year with legitimate ace upside and stuff. BIG statement by this front office early on the offseason. Come to this team if you want to win. Let’s get Bichette or Tucker now.

Would you do Barger + Nimmala + 1 of Bloss or Tiedemann for Marte? Would that even get it done? That's 1 MLB ready piece in Barger who is ready to go for Arizona Jake Bloss gives AZ some much needed pitching depth. He was an arrow up guy before injury and gives them a potential backend start immediately Nimmala is a lot of raw upside.

These type of reports are so funny. If you've listened to enough front office execs talk, you know that the first thing competent front offices do in the offseason is inquire on EVERYONE and perform due diligence. Like every front office member is assigned a block of teams to reach out to and gather as much information about who might be available and what holes teams are looking to fill. You can conceivably have an AI-written article about Team X has 'checked in' on player Y with any combination of team and player in baseball, and it's probably true. Like there's a non-zero possibility that Rays checked with the Yankees on if they would move Aaron Judge, because that's what competantly run front-offices do. Leave no stone unturned, however unlikely it would be. Regardless, as a hypothetical, Marte is much more preferable for the Jays than Bo. Better player, making not that much money relative to his production. Only knock against him is his age, but if you're going all-in, that's the type of move to make. It wouldn't necessarily knock you out of the Tucker and 1 SP convos either where as paying Bo would likely mean no Tucker.

Also, damn if we get Tucker can you imagine this lineup? Springer Tucker Vladdy Santander Kirk Varsho Clement/Barger Lukes/Schneider Gimenez Incredibly balanced and well rounded