Ray

Tatis was due for arbitration next season and he probably would've broken Bellinger's record of $11.5M at his current pace. So maybe it's not that bad if you actually break down the numbers? 2021: pre-arb 2022: arb1: ~$12.5M 2023: arb2: ~$18M 2024: arb3: ~$25M ----------- He'd be getting paid handsomely in arbitration and become a free agent heading into his age 25 season. So you can rationalize this by saying they bought out 10 free agent years of his at around ~$285M, when in reality he probably would've made way more than that easily had he hit free agency. But a lot can happen between now and then. I recall people throwing absurd numbers for Kris Bryants free agency too.

Really puts the Acuna contract in perspective.

Figured this could use it's own thread. Jesus christ that's a lot of money.

I like Longenhagen, but it’s funny seeing him put 7 of our prospects in his Top 100 days after saying we were a bottom third ranked system and doubling down on that on a radio show. That statement is making less sense by the day unless he really believes the system falls off after those 7, which I would also challenge.

Boras did a nice job for Aaron there.

I had forgotten about Tellez, but that makes sense if you buy into his adjustments in a small sample/ Teoscar has literally been worth -24 DRS and -16 OAA since 2018 though, so I hope they get creative to try and limit his time fielding. We're talking worse than Domingo Santana and Nomar Mazara levels of bad in that span.

I’m also still not entirely convinced Lindor will sign a deal before free agency and him testing the market is going to be a huge risk in terms of resigning him. The Mets offseason started out strong with McCann and Lindor/Carrasco, but ultimately still feels like a little bit of a disappointment with their subsequent moves. I think they were one big move away (Bauer or Springer) from putting themselves over the top, but now it seems like they’re scrambling a little bit to fill out the roster.

Grichuk in RF and Teoscar at DH is the optimal lineup. The less Teoscar sees the field, the better. If Grichuk puts up the offensive numbers he had last season in RF, we're looking at ~2-3 WAR production, which we should all be happy with.

$5M seems like a little too much for a OF who can't hit and has been worth -10 DRS the last 3 seasons

Not really. Hoping they bounce back to career norms =/= best case scenario. I doubt all of Ray, Stripling, Matz, Roark are going to be as bad as they were in 2020. These aren't the Jaime Garcia's, Clay Bucholz, and Clayton Richards of the world. All of those guys with the exception of Roark have had a very recent track record of being at least productive starters, and Matz/Ray actually throw hard with above average secondaries.

Same with Stripling. 3.51 career ERA prior to 2020. He could very easily bounce back. Realistically, we need some good pitching stories to emerge next seasons anyways if we want to make a good run. All it takes is one of Pearson/Kay/Thornton/Hatch/Merryweather to break out for this rotation to look markedly better, albeit I’m still hoping we get one of Walker/Odorizzi just to bolster it. But I’m less worried than most about the rotation just because I think there’s a good combination of depth and bounce back potential for the rotation to be at least average, which paired with our expected offense and good bullpen should be good enough to make the playoffs.

Paxton back to the Mariners. Not sure how reliable this guy is, but he is from the same town as Paxton.

Last I read, they were developing him as a utility player (INF/OF). Of note, he had a good showing in Arizona Fall League in 2019, but I think he’s been all but written off as org depth.

Non-roster invitees list looking’ STACKED

Figure it’d be worthwhile to get a thread going with the schedule and non-roster invitees list released:

I know this point has probably been beaten to death here, but I'm so stoked on what our pitching depth is looking like. I legitimately think there's a good possibility that someone rises to the occasion and grabs that #2 or #3 spot in the rotation, and this is without considering any bounce backs from Ray, Stripling, Roark, and Matz Pearson: Looked like an ace absolutely dismantling the Rays in the postseason. There's a legitimate chance he could be our best starter next season Kay: High floor with his high-spin fastball and curve combo, and his changeup was looking good too. He's got a real good 3 pitch mix. Hatch: Looked pretty good as a reliever last season and was really good at limiting hard contact and barrels. Also has a high spin/moderate velocity fastball. Thornton: In hindsight, had a pretty successful 2019 season for a rookie pitcher in the AL East. Could make the next step. Merryweather: Injury concerns, but flamethrower. I guess you could make the case that he should be a bullpen guy instead of the rotation, but I think this front office is just too enamoured by the thought of him the rotation so he may start there Zeuch: f*** FIP I guess? BJMB keeps doubting and he's still out there getting major league outs without embarrassing himself even despite his profile. Who knows, maybe he starts 96 mph sinkers after an offseason regiment or something I feel like every young team that makes a run ends up having happy surprises. Example: The Braves getting Max Friend and Ian Anderson to pick them up Soroka went down early last season. Hoping we get similar stories from our young pitching staff. Really looking forward to tracking their development and progress. (And this isn't even counting guys like Manoah and SWR who may be major league ready by end of season!)

It's already been a fantastic offseason, but one of Paxton/Odorizzi/Walker would make it amazing. Better than the 2012 one perhaps? I wasn't following the team closely at the time, so not sure how it would measure up. I know most people quote that as one of the best offseasons the Jays ever had, but obviously it didn't pan out.

He should. Espinal should be a “break glass in case of emergency” option.

I think they could’ve shelled out $3M for either, but there’s more to it than that. There’s probably easier paths to more playing time for both on Red Sox and Phillies so that’s probably why they chose those teams.

Can someone post this? https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30880410/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-farm-system-rankings-all-30-teams

Yeah, I mean I get why it had to be done from a roster management perspective. I just objectively prefer Fisher over Davis in a vacuum.

I would’ve kept Fisher over Davis, but it is what it is. He’ll land with another team like the Indians or Pirates and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him putting it together.

Keith Law Top 20 Jays prospects: 1. RHP Nate Pearson 2. SS Austin Martin 3. RHP Alek Manoah 4. C Alejandro Kirk 5. SS Orelvis Martinez 6. 3B Jordan Groshans 7. C Gabriel Moreno 8. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson 9. 2B/SS Miguel Hiraldo 10. RHP CJ Van Eyk 11. RHP Adam Kloffenstein 12. SS Estiven Machado 13. OF Dasan Brown 14. RHP Eric Pardinho 15. RHP Yosver Zulueta 16. RHP Patrick Murphy 17. SS Rikelvin De Castro 18. SS Leo Jimenez 19. IF Otto Lopez 20. C Riley Adams Others of note: Joey Murray, Sem Robberse, Jiorgeny Casimiri, Trent Palmer, Manuel Beltre Sleeper: Dasan Brown and Gabriel Moreno

Really like this deal. He was tearing it up in Milwaukee before the curse of the Phillies bullpen got to him. In general, he's been pretty good since moving to the bullpen. Love the way this staff is currently constructed. Any of Dolis, Romano, Phelps, Yates, Borucki, Chatwood underperform or go down to injury, we have a major league ready stable of arms waiting in AAA. Same with the rotation.