max silver

I'd argue that third base is possibly the biggest hole on the team. Look back at the last two seasons at the Jays third base production and you'll see that they've received approximately 0.1 WAR from the position combined. Unless you think Martin is going to be up in 2021 (not outside the realm of possibility) who does the team have available to effectively man the position while not simultaneously creating a black hole on offence? I don't see the Vlad 3rd base experiment lasting more than a handful of games, Biggio doesn't seem to have the requisite arm strength to play an effective third base either. I'm fine with a short term signing to fill the position, whether it's Turner, La Stella etc. that helps to fill the position until Groshans or Martin is ready to take over.

That would be awesome but I can't help but think spreading the available dollars around a little more would be prudent. The team is in dire need of infield help as well as in the starting rotation and bullpen, signing both of these guys leaves a hole in the infield and does nothing to address the bullpen. If Rogers says go nuts and allows payroll to increase sufficiently to address all the holes in the roster while signing two elite free agents that would be amazing but I won't hold my breath.

I think an Odorizzi signing and a Sonny Gray/Joe Musgrove pickup is a doable scenario. Gray and Musgrove wouldn't require emptying out the farm system like a Castillo trade would. None of these guys profile as aces obviously, but would instantly slot into the 2/3 slots depending on where Pearson lines up.

If an impact player like Springer is signed it's not like he's only around for only 2021. Much like the Ryu signing he will be with the club for many years to come in the future. On one hand you portray doom and gloom about how bad the existing roster is, but then you also advocate for signing mediocre veterans like Jackie Bradley Jr. who will do very little to actually improving the clubs chance to win. Waiting around for the future wastes a chance to continue building the roster today. Team payroll is incredibly low, and there looks to be a chance to obtain some nice upgrades through free agency. Why pull the rug out from under the young core instead of supplementing the roster and giving them the chance to vault into contention?

La Stella isn't rumored to bring in a very sizeable contract, MLBTR has a prediction of only 2 years and 14 million. I'd say take a shot at signing both La Stella and Springer as well.

I like Semien more than Gregorius as an infield target, but I'm not sure how thrilled he would be moving off of shortstop either.

My point is that the Jays front office thought prices would be even lower than they already are. Their stated intent of bringing aboard two elite players, or 4 very good players, or whatever permutation you prefer to go with is obviously predicated on these players accepting the offers the Jays sent out to them, and seeing as how they are zero for whatever total number of players they've negotiated with shows that they are not willing to spend above their low valuations.

It's only natural that with every big fish that comes off of the board the scrutiny facing the front office is going to intensify. They set the expectations extremely high of real difference makers being brought into the fold and have come in second place in every high profile player they've been involved with.

I think the Jays misread the market a bit thinking that there would be large reductions in free agent prices. If guys are choosing to go back to Japan, accept qualifying offers or sign for relative peanuts elsewhere then you would hope the front office snaps back to reality and ups their game.

Damn that's way too risky for me. Ryu is kind of injury prone, Pearson doesn't likely have enough innings under his belt to last a full major league season and missed a chunk of time last season with elbow issues, Kluber has basically missed two full seasons including just coming off of a shoulder injury, Paxton is lucky to reach 150 innings and is coming off of back surgery and elbow/forearm problems. And that's without mentioning that Tanaka has been pitching with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament for years. Yikes.

I definitely prefer either of those over paying $15 million per season for Tanaka. Way more upside with the first two options, even if they have very risky injury profiles.

I wonder if Walker may be able to find another gear in his performance levels. I recall him mentioning he would like to dive into analytically inclined training methods in the future, as he was impressed with the amount of data that the Jays were available to offer him upon joining the club initially.

If the club is after a mediocre inexpensive innings eater I'd far prefer they opt for J.A. Happ. There is obvious familiarity between Happ and the coaching staff and he had a nice bounceback in the shortened 2020 season. He'll likely sign for a 1 year contract given his advanced age whereas Walker will likely require several years.

Hand looks to throw his slider about 50% of the time, and this pitch generates nearly 40% whiff rate even with the velocity drop. He really doesn't seem to be reliant on pure velocity to garner above average results.

I was a little surprised at the time that Patrick Murphy was going to be utilized as a reliever while Julian Merryweather would be a starter. However thinking back about seeing Murphy as a reliever in his short MLB stint I did have questions about his fastball command being sufficient to turn over a lineup multiple times, perhaps the changeup didn't come along enough for him to have a viable third offering. Merryweather certainly has the stuff and arsenal to be a fantastic starter but how long would it take before the inevitable injuries pop up again with a starters workload?

Same basic information is up on MLBTR, so I guess I better stop following that site as well according to your rules. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/latest-on-dj-lemahieus-market.html

The article mentions how LeMahieu wants close to the same contract that J.D. Martinez got, but if anything Martinez should act as a cautionary tale as to how quickly a player can decline in their 30's. Martinez is all but certain to bounce back to some degree but he had an incredibly bad year in a season that he started at the ripe old age of 32.

While that would make for a rotation with very high upside I can't help but go glass half empty and think about how badly that could turn out. If Ray is terrible again and both Kluber and Paxton get hurt and miss a good chunk of time (very likely scenario) you are left with a terrible starting rotation. I seriously doubt Cleveland wants anything to do with Grichuk, they are dramatically slashing payroll and likely wouldn't want to be adding a negative value contract to their books. Grichuk has potential to hit 2-2.5 wins in a good season, but he's much more likely in the 1-1.5 win range if we are being realistic.

Sneaky good move for sure. Just need to make sure Uncle Charlie doesn't use him as the first man up in high leverage in the playoffs again.

I'm well aware Stroman was never an option due to the fractured relationship, but the fact remains that dependable good quality starting pitching is a rare commodity, and each guy that the Jays management strikes out on reduces the options available to them. The free agent market is already basically down to Bauer and various reclamation projects, then finally back of the rotation options.

There is a finite supply of players in key areas of need. The Jays have massive holes in the infield and starting rotation, and with Kim and Lindor off the market gone are two of the top available targets with which to fill that hole. More dire is the starting pitcher market, where arguably 3 of the top 4 available free agents targets in Gausman, Stroman, and Sugano are all gone. The trade market is quickly dwindling as well, with Darvish, Snell and Carrasco all being traded away to other teams. If Jays management continues to slow play the market and stick to their value offers they are eventually going to be left fighting over the scraps.

I hate the idea of the Jays potentially wasting a year of their good young core while it's still inexpensive. If they keep insisting on making value offers to free agents there is always going to be somebody else willing to offer more money. I'd rather they overpay to some degree on actual impact players then end up having to overpay for marginal quality upgrades instead. Tanner Roark is a perfect example of overpaying for a low quality player, enough of that s***, make the money actually count instead of the possibility of completely wasting it.

I'm definitely starting to get a bit nervous about how this offseason is unfolding. It's starting to feel a bit like the Jays are getting their lunch money stolen by the few teams that are willing to spend money to improve their teams. The Padres jumped in out of nowhere and snapped up Kim under the Jays noses, and then proceeded to trade for two of the most desirable starting pitchers available on the market. Now with the Mets stepping up and trading for Lindor and Carrasco (I was admittedly a bit lukewarm to this idea, but it was still fun to dream on) there are two fewer players available to Jays management to upgrade the roster with. The dual disappointments of Gausman choosing to accept the qualifying offer and Sugano going back to Japan are also making me start to question whether this front office is going to step out of their budget conscious free agency mindset and actually do what it takes to acquire their chosen targets. I'm going to be extremely displeased if the Jays end up hanging on to their money because they are too afraid to accept some risk and actually spend it. This is amplified by how Jays management has talked up their willingness to spend aggressively to upgrade the roster, it's becoming high time to put up or shut up.

It's certainly an impossible year to get a good handle on what the market actually is for anybody given the glacially slow pace up to this point.

I'm just saying I wouldn't be overly surprised if his AAV approaches the $15 million range. The last two years the reliever leaderboard is basically Hendriks, then several wins behind are guys like Nick Anderson and Brad Hand. Hendriks isn't terribly old, his command is immaculate, he's historically had good health, and his stuff ticked up substantially in 2019.