max silver

The Yankees starting rotation has amazing upside. Cole/Severino/Kluber/Taillon is awesome. There's a really good chance a bunch of their rotation misses time due to injury, but if they can have even 3 of their top 4 going into the playoffs they will be in great shape.

They seem to have the magic pixie dust that they sprinkle onto hitters, but I don't recall them having quite as much success when it comes to starting pitchers. It definitely doesn't help that they've played in an absolute bandbox when it comes to the pitching side of the equation.

From listening to interviews with the front office they sound like they are very high on Moreno, but with the glut of catchers on the 40 man roster one of them likely needs to be moved out this offseason. Adams and McGuire are the most expendable of the bunch, but neither of these guys likely has much in the way of trade value.

I guess in a way for Jays players it's to their financial benefit to play a portion of their games in Dunedin this season given the massive difference in tax rates between Ontario and Florida.

Success rates for single Tommy John surgeries are pretty decent, but I'd be wary of trading long term assets for a player who's undergone a second Tommy John procedure. This has apparently been studied, and the results aren't great. https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=187606

That certainly could be the case, my assumption was based on articles that listed Connecticut as "home" for Springer, which could simply be referencing that he grew up there. Texas certainly changes things dramatically for him, that changes to 37% federal + 0% state income tax, vs. the combined 46% in Ontario.

From a quick lookup, assuming that Springer resides in Connecticut, state income tax maxes out at 6.99% vs 13.16% for Ontario, so that's a nice difference on its own. Federal tax rates between the two countries look to be similar, with Canada maxing out at 33% vs 37% in the US. If my thinking is correct combined Springer would pay about 46% total tax in Ontario vs 44% in the US, so it's maybe not that big of a difference either way.

I wouldn't want anything to do with Moustakas and his inflated contract, that's a serious hand grenade. What in the actual f*** was Cincinnati thinking when they handed that out? If you're lucky Moustakas provides 5 or 6 wins over the remaining length of his deal, there are far better values to be had in free agency this year.

Earning starter money has to be nice for sure, but at some point you would think guys would get tired of constantly rehabbing injuries instead of being on the field competing.

You would have to think that at some point in would be in Richards best interest to switch to the bullpen. However he's a guy who's pitched less than 200 innings combined out of the last 5 years as a starter, and still obtained a $10 million guarantee, so I can see why he would continue attempting to start.

I did some digging around, and it appears as though the signing bonus may be spread over the length of the contract. So if I'm correct Springer is making $32 million in 2021 combined, but due to the AAV the luxury tax counted salary is only $25 million. This is only really of use to a team planning to spend to the luxury tax though, so it could certainly be Springer wanting a nice up front payment.

It's possible Rogers will view that as separate from regular payroll. There has to be some sort of inherent benefit for the team to dishing out this kind of bonus vs simply designating a $32 million salary, or why would they bother?

I like the initial signing bonus with only $22 million outlay in 2021, that leaves a little more payroll space for extra additions.

If the Jays are going to swing a trade with Cincinnati I'd rather target Gray personally, the acquisition cost will be much more palatable. Castillo is likely going to require emptying out a chunk of the higher ceiling prospects from the farm system as well as subtracting young talent from the major league roster. Alternatively Jake Odorizzi is available as a free agent. He doesn't project as well as Gray, however his last healthy season in 2019 was very similar in value provided to Sonny Gray's 2019 season, and he's likely to require a similar contract to what Gray is signed to presently. And an added bonus is that the Jays can keep their prospect base fully intact as well. Odorizzi had his fastball improve several ticks from 2018-2019 and that looks to have been sustained in his injury shortened 2020, so he has potential to bounce back nicely.

So much for the goal of sustained winning if a trade like that is made. You subtract two cheap core pieces as well as two of the top prospects in the system all in one tidy package.

Interesting way this is setup. Barring injury or complete disaster Chatwood should be a lock for the bonuses up to 60 innings, as a swingman the 85/100 should be attainable for him, but the 120/130/140 seem unlikely barring a rotation meltdown that forces him into regular rotation duty.

Lol no kidding, I can see everywhere from Gregorigoridius, to Grigamordians, Grigoranas, etc.

Gregorius batted ball statistics took a turn for the worse in 2020. He posted a career worst average exit velocity, placing him in the lower 2 percentile range in all of MLB, and produced the lowest maximum exit velocity of his career since they started measuring it. He had a rough 2019 season, only producing an 83 WRC+. In many ways his batted ball numbers in 2020 were worse than 2019, with less hard contact and more weak contact. His xWOBA in 2019 was .297 vs actual of .298, whereas in 2020 his xWOBA was .298, but his actual was .342. His poor 2019 numbers, combined with the weak batted ball profile suggests there's a good possibility that his more favorable 2020 results are just as likely to be replaced with his bad 2019 results. He's outperformed his expected statistics in the past, and he's never been a Statcast darling to say the least, but much of his success seems to be based on continuing to squeak enough balls over the fence for homeruns in order to see some success at the plate. If the power slips in the slightest you are left with an expensive slap hitting backup infielder. With the lower max EV and average EV it's possible that's already started to happen. Gregorius would fit just fine on this team, my original point was that I don't find that he's an exciting potential pickup compared to other players that are available, basically anybody that can even provide above replacement value at third base is an improvement on what they've received the last two seasons. I would like to see the front office aim higher, if there are better quality players available that fit within the budget I'd prefer they exhaust those avenues first. The club is at the point where each added win to the roster becomes very meaningful.

Generally the guys that have signed up to this point have exceeded expectations. It will be interesting to see if that continues or if the second tier guys are going to end up being squeezed quite a bit.

MLBTR has Didi signing a 3 year deal, would he even consider a shorter contract?

I think the wisdom of a potential Gregorius signing depends largely on whether he's willing to primarily be a third baseman instead of shortstop. He's nowhere close to the caliber of player I'd consider moving Bo Bichette off of the position for. I certainly didn't give him enough credit for the ability to cover shortstop in the case of a Bichette injury in my original posts. If the Jays were to sign a shortstop to man third base I'd rather they shoot for Semien personally, although Gregorius would almost certainly be more cost effective. I'm not sure why Seager has such a bad reputation, when he's healthy and on the field he's a very good player. In 2019 he produced a WAR of 4.1/150, and in 2020 he produced 3.75/150. He's had one bad season in his career, and other than the bad 2018 he's basically been a 3.5+ win player.

I simply think that Seager is a better player at this point of his career than Gregorius is and offers higher upside. I have strong suspicions that Gregorius is going to see his production tank as he was likely the recipient of good extremely good fortune in 2020.

Seager is definitely a guy I'd like the front office to target. His salary isn't terrible considering he has 3 win upside, he plays a decent third base and would come with several years of control. After a rough 2018 he's rebounded nicely, producing 4.4 FWAR in 166 games.

I'm not very excited about Gregorius either. His bat really isn't anything special, his expected stats the last few seasons don't paint a very pretty picture. He's more than likely to have a league average bat. That's an improvement on what's available in house for sure, but there should be better targets available to go after first.

A better question is whether there are any Roark fans anywhere.