Brownie19

That's nice. I'm just curious on the timeline. I honestly just don't recall him ever posting as much as he has over the past season.

And when did you return to posted on this main board?

I agree. I think I mentioned it earlier - it's who's the best team come October. Nobody cares which team was "the best" in April & May. Injuries, trades, breakout players, etc. A lot can change over the course of 5-6 months.

Who are the well respected posters who are being treated like they're inferior and/or idiots? I know you joined back in 2013, but I honestly don't remember you posting a lot on here until recently. Did you take a break or something along the way or am I just mis-remembering? I also believe connorp only used to post on the OT threads until this year...

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2747449 Maybe there is an issue...

I think you missed the message.

GameChangeNation (@gamechange.nation) • Instagram reel WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM 567K likes, 4,945 comments - gamechange.nation on October 2, 2023: "There is no such thing as failure in sports. 🏷️ @giannis_an34 @bucks Video Credit: AntetokounBrosTv via Youtube #failure #adversity #lifechampion #sportmotivation #mindset #giannis". I really like this. I think fans lose this perspective a lot.

What an incredible start to the world series. Really hope this one goes 7.

While I certainly agree with the premise that Atkins isn't a good GM, I think it's shorted to suggest he's some s***** poker player beta and suggest he should have done A, B & C instead. Moreno had a 78 wRC+ in the 1st half of this year. If he was doing that on the Jays, while playing out of position or some s***, his value likely would have dropped significantly. You can rip Varsho all you want, but he was coming off 7.1 WAR over his past 900 PA's (which is about a 4.5 WAR pace over a full season). He was also coming off a 119 wRC+ second half in 2022. If he gets off to a hot start in 2023, there's a good chance he's simply not available anymore - especially for 1st half limp dick hitting version of Moreno. And the longer we held onto Teo, the more his value drops. He was awful in April and May this year. If we kept him, there's a chance we don't get someone as good as Swanson for him. Then you have to factor in that the Jays were in a "win now" mode. Trying to play one of the catchers 'out of position' or proceeding with a suboptimal lineup may have cost them games in a season we couldn't afford to do that. Now of course there's also a probability that following your formula would have given the Jays better results - but you shouldn't act like that was a given, or use that as your reasoning to rip the guy when you little to no idea if your approach would have worked or backfired.

It's appalling how confident you seem to be, when you don't understand some of the basics. I've never met you, and don't care if I ever do, but you seem like you're a typical cocky idiot. Maybe you're not, but when you type, that's what comes out.

I mean - they told us at the press conference that it's short sighted to judge a trade like this after 1 year. That's 100% correct, so not sure why you'd expect anything different. Do you want them to say "well that didn't work out great in Year 1?" I mean they could probably say that, but it's 100% going to be followed by "however, we have confidence in Varsho and believe he'll be a key/core part of our outfield for the foreseeable future". Would that make you happy? re: bolded portion - they basically said that. Shapiro said they need to improve and get better. What more do you want? At the end of the day, I think you'd be better off not listening to press conferences or interviews. Nobody is going to say much of use for obvious reasons. Stop expecting them to tell you exactly how they are feeling. It's a waste of time.

Simmons was also a good example of a defense first player who actually got better with age and improved his hitting in his peak years (27 and 28). That's a good example of the upside that Varsho has. There's always a possibility that a player falls off the cliff, no matter what their skill set is. I can provide example of good hitters who completely died at age 29 also. I think there's a very high probability that Varsho's floor is a 2 WAR player. Obviously nobody wants to see that - and if he's hitting the floor for the next 3 years, we'll probably all agree that trade was a flop. But most players have a much lower floor than that. Defense and speed rarely take days off - especially when you're under 30 years old.

The issue is this isn't really true. Varsho comes with very little downside. He didn't hit anywhere near his career averages or projections this year and still provided a 2+ WAR season. He's already provided a 5 WAR season, so we know there is indeed upside. His value just may not come in the traditional ways and I understand some fans struggle with that. He also does have some upside though. He's entering his prime years - and he's had more success with the bat in the minors (than he's shown in the majors so far). Varsho's value probably ranges between 2 and 5 WAR per year. It's pretty easy to see him landing between 3 and 4 WAR next year. It's pretty hard to see him being shittier than he was this past year and thus 2 WAR probably represents the floor. Moreno was a top catching prospect. He came with risk as there have been SEVERAL top catching prospects who have flopped throughout the years. He has much higher downside than Varsho (especially when you consider he'd shown absolutely now power since his hand injury...which continued throughout this season until the past 6-8 weeks). That said - I can certainly understand the position that he has more upside than Varsho. When will he get there? Maybe it's next year, maybe it takes 4-5 years like it did with Jansen and several other top catchers. Keep in mind that development isn't always linear. Kirk is a great example of that. Catching is hard. Even if he does become a star - what's that look like? That very well could be a handful of 4-6 WAR seasons. Time will tell. This trade very well may not go in Toronto's favour, but this isn't a catastrophic trade like Yordan for Josh Fields, or Tatis for James Shields. Let's step back from the cliff shall we?

I don't think you had to fight at all. That's a pretty simple concept that almost everyone on here would understand. Unfortunately, I think the fight you have is with your ability to articulate your thoughts.

Except that's not what you do. I have no issue with you exploring some new/different ideas. Wondering if there's a way to construct a team built to win in the playoffs and if that would look different than a team built to win in the regular season. That's a good thought - I'm curious about that also. But you then admittedly aren't willing or able to do the research to prove anything at all (neither am I) - but you don't say that, you start claiming that certain teams have done this and suggest you know the formula (while suggesting the Jays are way off on that formula). Then when anyone questions your claims, you get your back up and make more s*** up. Please just stop. Accept you really have no idea what the answer is. There's nothing wrong with that. You can be curious and ask some 'out of the box' questions to see if anyone knows - or to create some discussion, but stop pretending like you know the answers.

I find it incredible difficult to understand how fans see it any other way. I understand fans are irrational at times, but the success of the Diamondbacks in the playoffs shouldn't really be changing your view of this trade. Is anyone who feels this might be one of the worst trades in history actually able to articulate why they feel that way? What do you think the probability of Moreno becoming a 5+ WAR superstar are? Do you just struggle to understand how someone with a low average can still be valuable? Obviously there's a lot of people who fall into this category - because the Toronto Star is writing and article as click bait. Help us understand your side better.

Best defensive team in baseball (not that connorp thought that was a key to winning in the playoffs). That said - I do think Marte is a stud. Huge bounce back season.

you spelt stupid wrong...

Just like to point out when the Manager goes with the nerd stats and probabilities and it works out in his favor. Seems we only hear about the failures of analytics, when fans think a manager should have used the eye test / gut test.

I don't disagree, but I think some forget just how awesome Kirk was in 2022 and how he was a legit star player heading into this season. Heading into this season, the probability that Moreno had 1 season in career as good as Kirk 2022 was likely <50% (it still might be). Now of course we're seeing all kinds of recency bias with Moreno because he got red hot for 6 weeks to finish the season and has been very good in the playoffs (just a 124 wRC+, I would have thought it was higher). He'll head into the 2024 season in a similar position that Kirk did this past year (Kirk hit well in our 2 playoff games last year too and may have generated even more buzz if we could have won a few rounds). We'll see if Moreno continues to excel, or if the league adjusts to him and he slumps a bit. I also can't believe how s***** Moreno's baserunning is. He's fast, but it's like he learned baserunning from Vlad or something as he must make a s*** ton of mistakes.

Not that it's gospel, but at the time of the trade, Kirk was ranked the 27th most valuable player in MLB by Fangraphs. As of July 21, 2023, he was still ranked 39th. Moreno wasn't Top 50 in the most current rankings. Obviously teams will have their own valuation systems, but you are correct that at the time of the trade, Kirk was rated higher than Moreno. In fact, coming off a 3.9 WAR, 129 wRC+ season - I think everyone should have considered Kirk to be the better player (currently). The real question was whether he would stay 'above' Moreno over the long term. This year, they were similar in value and obviously, based on the playoffs, everyone expects Moreno will just bud into a superstar next year. That may happen - but then again, we all though Kirk was on the same path heading into the 2023 season - so you never know. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Kirk posts a 4 WAR year, while Moreno struggles to a 2 WAR season. I also wouldn't be surprised if Kirk was at 2 WAR and Moreno was at 4 WAR. Young catchers are often quite unpredictable. Even Adley declined (a bit) this year after an incredible rookie season.

good call.

Forgot about Chas. I get Dubion has been getting some hits, but how on earth isn't Chas McCormick playing for the Astros? The guy would have been the Jays best hitter this year. Is this Dusty going with his gut or something? Chas and Diaz really should be in the lineup over Dubion and Brantley. Are old school fans praising Dusty or ripping him for these bizarre decisions?

It's certainly not looking good. Just keep losing now and try to land Caleb Williams, Shedeur Sanders or Drake Maye in the draft. Actually, there looks to be a ton of QB's projected in the 1st round this year - possibly 6-8.

Is Singleton the best PH the Astros have? I know he probably wanted to save Yainer Diaz to pinch hit for Maldonado, but it felt like that Singleton AB was the game. Yainer Diaz has a 150 wRC+ this year v. RHP and was one of the best hitters in baseball in Aug/Sept. What am I missing?