Brownie19

Valid points. I suspect the mindset was "we need to win Game 2 first. Can't save this good strategy for Game 3...". I think most would agree with that approach.

I figure that's all baked into the numbers, but it's a good point. I think it's pretty easy to see why this was a solid "strategy". Fair debate about whether they should have waited to implement the strategy an inning or 2 later, but overall, the strategy did generally work. You can't come in an walk guys, but I think we all know that more often than not, those groundballs don't find holes and we're out of that inning. Us humans sure have a difficult time understanding the flaw in judging a decision based on the outcome. Prior to the game, if you were told that we'd give up 2 runs in Game 2, I think almost everyone would say "that's great - that's all we can ask for". Until you can't score a single run and now everyone is up and losing their minds over it and who's call it was - instead of blaming the hitters/offense (like they probably should).

Oh no. Some random guy I don't know is going to "dunk on me" because I'm going to take some time and wait for more information to become available before forming an opinion on a matter. Whatever will I do?

I think that's a fair way to look at it. Of course if they used the eye test and Kepler takes Berrios deep, I'm not sure the "well he was looking good" defense against pulling him would have been 100% supported. Analytics are a thing because of how poorly the "eye test" has historically been... I'd love to know what their numbers suggested the probability of Kikucci coming in and having success was. If it suggested Kikucci would have an 80% probability of success in that situation, while Berrios would have had a 50% probability of success in that situation (without factoring in that he was pitching "better than expected"), would you be comfortable going with the "eye test" over the "numbers"? How big of a gap would be required for you to say "f*** it - I can't go with the eye test, the probability of Kikucci succeeding is so much higher than Berrios that I must pull him".

you say that like people take your opinions seriously around here...

To be fair, I'm not sure you're any better for taking what reporters are saying, or what's being "leaked" at face value either... I don't think anyone should be overly confident on who to believe at this point.

yeah - I don't think that's the reason.

Reminds me of the Blue Jays circa 2020. Multiple generational talents at the ML level, Teo and LGR breaking out, Biggio was a stud, a host of can't miss prospects on the way in Pearson, Manoah, Moreno, Groshans, SWR, Kirk. Life was good.

Don't get me wrong - this is 100% what I expect to happen. I'm just curious what the reaction from their fans is. It's nice to pretend like nobody should have any concerns for all the reasons you indicated, but fans aren't typically know for being rational. If we won 100 games this year and bowed out of the playoffs 3 straight - I would expect a tire fire in here. I wonder if LA fans will blame the FO and managers like most in Toronto have, or if they'll blame the players, or luck, or injuries instead.

This is correct. 5.1 and 4.5 the previous 2 years, plus a 4.5 pace this past year.

Do you follow baseball at all? LGJ isn't a very good player. He will go to whichever team offers him a starting spot and the most money. End of story.

It was just a question. The team hasn't exactly performed up to their expectations when it comes to playoff success. If you were a Dodgers fan, you might say things like "Freeman and Kershaw aren't getting any younger", "Miggy fell off a cliff at 33 - are we wasting these superstar seasons by Freeman?", "will Urias ever play for us again?", "why didn't we add more at the deadline?", "our prospect list is getting a little thin - Nick Frasso isn't going to save us"

You mean to say he's gotten progressively worse SINCE 2021 right? There is obviously some probability that he rebounds. The # of people with his type of statcast #'s who aren't star players is really low. There are also very few players in the history of the game who produced like Vlad in the minors and posted MLB numbers like he did in 2021. Also, in today's day and age, it's easier than it's ever been to correct mechanical flaws and 'fix' players. I don't know what probability is that he rebounds and hits closer to his 2021 season (say .290 / .390 / .520 with a 150 wRC+), but it's probably >25% That said - I hate Vlad and have little faith, but if you look at it subjectively, you can see why people would think he can rebound.

Depends what probability you think classifies as 'crazy'. I think there's maybe a 25% chance that we have three players who can give us 4+ WAR years in 2024 (without making a major trade of FA signing). I think that's fair, given we still have 4 guys on the current roster who did it in 2022 (if I round Kirk's up from 3.9 ), plus Vlad as the 5th wild card, plus a guy like Davis Schneider or a Danny Jansen who could surprise. I just don't see us adding another star player. We had internal prospect depth last year and took our shot at adding another 'star' player who was under control for several years. We got Varsho, who kind of stinks, but will probably be a solid CF moving forward. I can't see them trading Ricky or another top prospect to try and bring in another 4-5 WAR 'star' player again this year. I don't think we have the parts to do it unless they only have 1 (maybe 2) years of control. I also think anytime you make the playoffs, it's a good, successful season. I'm not blowing up the roster simply because we have the loses odds heading into the playoffs.

If the Dodgers get swept, will their fans be calling for the FO and Manager to be fired? They won some mickey mouse WS in the COVID season - but otherwise, they must be thinking their window is also closing quickly.

It's not, but it's also not crazy to think that Bo and Vlad both put up 4+ WAR seasons next year and that someone out of the grouping of Springer, Kirk, Varsho, Jansen, Schneider, etc. does too. Springer, Kirk and Varsho were all 4 WAR players in 2022. Unfortunately, I think there's a good chance we go into 2024 simply hoping that happens. If it does, we're probably a 90+ win team. If it doesn't, maybe we're an 80-85 win team.

Unfortunately, there's no rhyme or reason to which team the baseball gods bless each year. It's random. The goal is to get into the playoffs as often as you can to give yourself a better chance of getting blessed. I don't think anyone pegged the Dback's as that "team of destiny" heading into the playoffs. Most would have just nodded and carried on if they lost 2 straight in the wild card. Interesting, fun team though. Hope they continue to do well. Hopefully Lawler and Jones come along soon to boost them and some of their prospect arms develop.

The Dbacks are another great example of why you simply need to get into the playoffs...

Unfortunately, I think there's a very good chance it's already closed. I find it very difficult to see how we're going to add the pieces we need to be a true contender next year via free agency or trade. The FA list is kind of ugly this year and I'm not sure we're in a position to add another long term deal (without massive risk). And I'm not sure we have the farm system to add the talent we need (unless it's completely gutted). Maybe Atkins has the balls to go "all in" and sacrifice the future of the team by signing more long term deals or selling the farm, but I have my doubts that we'll be adding much 'new' talent this offseason. I think we're an 80-90 win team that will have to rely on a recurrence from it's current players and a bit of luck if we're going to make the playoffs and/or contend in 2024. Vlad, Kirk, Manoah, Varsho will need to bounce back in a big way and we'll probably need some rookies to step up and breakout (Ricky T, Davis S, Orelvis, Horwitz, etc.). Maybe we need to find the next late bloomer (like Joey Bats/EE/Teo)? If fans think it's realistic to add another star player or two this offseason, I think they're setting themselves up for disappointment. I can already hear them now in August 2024 - complaining this FO failed to add the talent they needed this offseason and calling for them to be fired. I'm just not sure I see the right avenue for that to happen.

4-5 WAR players are 'stars'. I don't think the Jays are going to land a 'star' in LF.

Aaron Rose (@aaronbenrose) • Instagram reel WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM 7,347 likes, 290 comments - aaronbenrose on August 23, 2023: "Here is #MLB’s BEST defensive first baseman compared to the WORST 👀 #ChristianWalker is low pro a stud at first whereas #VladimirGuerreroJr just hasn’t been good enough this year 😩 #Baseball #BlueJays". Not surprised

You can't compare baseball in 2023 to baseball in 2000. Bullpens are significantly better (as are the hitters). You could compare it to when the Jays stuck with Ray in the 6th inning of Game 162 in 2021, or when the Mets stuck with Scherzer in the 5th inning of the Wildcard Series (Game 1) last year - neither of those decisions worked. You could also compare it to the Blake Snell move in the World Series a few years ago with TB (that didn't work). Every decision has a probability of failure and sometimes even good decisions fail.

I wonder if the players think "I hope we fire Atkins and/or the coaching staff, they really f***ed over our chances to win this year" and "it's the coaches faults I had the worst year of my career and severely underperformed".

I think there's a 0% chance that Manoah is "waiting in the wings" (which I assume means opening the year as depth in AAA or in the bullpen). If he isn't starting the year in our rotation, he's been traded.