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Brownie19

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Everything posted by Brownie19

  1. Brownie19
    Dude - you're out here complaining about SP depth, suggesting Ricky T should be treated like an opener / Pearson. It's unrealistic to expect them to bring in better SP depth than Ricky T as your 6th or 7th starter. Not many teams in baseball have a stable of guys in the minors who are ML ready to go 6-7 innings a start. There have to be higher priorities than this.
  2. Brownie19
    That's probably because their wRC+'s were 114 and 112, which was 4th and 5th in all of MLB, combined with better results with RISP? Maybe you're right - BsR doesn't make any difference? If that makes you feel good - then great. I think historically, you'll find that teams with the 7th highest wRC+ typically finish top 10 in runs scored. I think if you simulated last year 100 times, the 746 runs they scored would be right near the bottom in terms of actual results.
  3. Brownie19
    Are there any SP prospects who don't have red flags? I mean, people in the industry write s*** about everyone - because they need to create content. IMO, it's not reasonable to suggest the Jays better go find another 7th starter because there's a chance that Ricky T is Pearson and won't be of any use to the team this year. You simply can't cover yourself for every "what if" situation. If Gausman has a major injury this year AND Ricky T is an injury prone flop - the Jays are probably going to suck. That's life. Most teams would LOVE to be in the position we're in, with one of the top pitching prospects in baseball ready to go as your #6 or #7 starting pitcher. This is an ideal position for the team to be in - yet here we are with the wet blanket crowd, complaining the FO hasn't done more to improve the SP depth.
  4. Brownie19
    How do you propose we add rotational depth - outside of just signing or trading for another SPer and pushing Manoah to AAA as the 6th starter? (which likely erodes his relationship with the Jays FO even more). Are we trading for solid SPing prospects who are near ready in AA/AAA? IMO, it's very hard to improve your SP depth in the offseason. Nobody wants to sign with a team to be their 6th or 7th starter - there's always a shittier team out there willing to give them a rotation spot in the majors. Having Francis, White and Ricky T as depth - to go along with a very proven, solid starting rotation that's going to feature Manoah as the 5th guy seems like it's a lot better position to be than most teams in baseball. Given what Montas and Giolito just cost on the FA market, it's hard to see us adding another SPer. I think that what you see is that you're going to get at this point, unless we bring in Yariel Rodriguez or someone like that - who would just replace White (who we'd have to DFA)
  5. Brownie19
    Very good base running is clearly one of the factors that allowed the Cubs and Cincy to score a lot more runs than their wRC+ would suggest. Even if we are middle of the pack on the bases this year, it could have a tangible impact on how many runs we score. We finally fired that stupid f*** who was standing at 3rd base, sending runners when he shouldn't have. He alone probably cost us 10+ runs last year.
  6. Brownie19
    If the offense produces the same wRC+ it did last year, there's a good probability that results in a lot more runs scored than last year - especially if they clean up their s***** base running. In theory, outside of Vlad and the catchers, this team shouldn't be so awful on the bases. KK, Varsho, Bo, Springer, IKF, Biggio, etc. should all be solid base runners. There's no reason for KK, Bo and Springer to be negative BsR guys. I wonder if the comments re: better support to the players might be geared towards cleaning that s*** up this year. This would also help lead to more runs scored by the same offensive group. We can't be 27th in BsR again in 2024.
  7. Brownie19
    I think the DH/OFer signing will have a decent shot of replicating what Belt provided last year and the bounce back seasons from various players should balance the drop from Chapman to IKF. The offense wasn't as brutal as most claim it was last year. The actual runs scored had to be one of the worst possible outcomes that anyone could have reasonably expected. 107 wRC+ as a team, but only 746 runs score. Cincy had a 98 wRC+ and scored 783 runs. Cubs were 6th in MLB with 819 runs scored, with only a 104 wRC+
  8. Brownie19
    I have to think they feel comfortable that Vlad, Kirk, Varsho and Springer will all be significantly better - then they'll add a Joc Pederson to the mix and call it a day. It's not a very inspiring offseason, but our offense was 7th in MLB last year in wRC+. I suspect all the models they have suggest the RISP issues they had last year was a lot of bad luck and are very unlikely to occur again (perhaps the talk of additional support to players will help in this regard?). Fans won't like it - but there's probably a lot of truth to this. A breakout season by someone like Davis Schneider, or a healthy season by Jansen may be needed to really provide that extra umph in the lineup.
  9. Brownie19

    NHL Thread

    Brownie19 replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    Get it done. Guy is a stud.
  10. Brownie19

    NBA Thread

    Brownie19 replied to admin's topic in Other Sports

    I think the best thing we could hope for is that RJ Barrett follows in the footsteps of Andrew Wiggins. Once Wiggins got out of Minny and escaped the pressures of being a top draft pick and the expectation that he'd be a superstar, he became a lot more efficient in GS and was able to develop into a very good defender. That's really what the team needs Barrett to be - an efficient 3rd or 4th scoring option and ideally, an above average defender. Now of course, that's easier to do when you're going to Golden State... Quickley is going to be a stud here. Raps will have to find a way to sign him long term this summer.
  11. Brownie19
    huh? There are people who don't realize that connorp paid Gibby and generally told him what to say? C'mon.
  12. Brownie19
    Not to interfere, but Green pitched 83 innings in 2021. Unlikely he approaches that this year. I would suggest the O/U for Green might be 1 or 1.2 WAR.
  13. Brownie19
    I don't see your point. If Green is a 1.5 WAR RP - that makes the Jays a lot better. I think the probability that Giolito is a 3+ WAR SPer / difference maker is quite low. I'm shocked it took $19M aav to get him....although I'm shocked Montas got $16M...happy we aren't in dire need of a SPer this off-season.
  14. Brownie19
    Sale + cash to the Braves for Grissom
  15. Brownie19
    5 WAR upside?? You think Belly has 7.8 WAR upside too?? Based on this logic, we might as well sign Syndergaard - he has big time upside too. And please stop quoting Green's WAR from last year like that matters. The guy has consistently been a 1.5+ WAR reliver. He might out WAR Giolito on his own in 1/2 the innings.
  16. Brownie19
    $19M+ annually for 2 years for Giolito? Barf
  17. Brownie19

    NBA Thread

    Brownie19 replied to admin's topic in Other Sports

    Barnes has been the #1 guy from Game 1 this season. Siakam and OG will probably both be gone. Tank, keep 1st rounder for a couple of years, build around Barnes.
  18. Brownie19
    Why do fans have such a hard time chilling out until the end of the off-season? Outrage on Dec 27th before you have any idea what other moves will be made or what role IKF will play on this team is pretty stupid.
  19. Brownie19
    The f*** is this nonsense? KK can't hit for s*** either. We're just saying we have a 27 year old OF who'd be most valuable playing CF over the next 3-4 years for the Jays. How difficult is that to understand?
  20. Brownie19
    https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-gifts-joe-kelly-porsche-for-no-17 Ohtani gives Joe Kelly's wife a porsche in exchange for #17. Rich people doing rich people things.
  21. Brownie19
    I don't know man. Career 99 wRC+ v. LHP. Career 82 wRC+ hitter. 33.5 K% last year. He's like signing Bradley Zimmer. I think Harrison Bader is a better target. Career 121 wRC+ v. LHP.
  22. Brownie19
    I'm not so sure the FA crop in 2024 is going to be lush with players we think are worth $150-$300M either. The reality is that landing franchise type players through free agency is typically a bad approach. Dodgers have been the exception lately, but they're due to have someone completely flop here.
  23. Brownie19
    That's rich coming from you.
  24. Brownie19
    This is a fair point - Gausman came with risks and that has worked out better than anyone could have envisioned. However, Gausman's underlying numbers suggested he was a legit star. The risk was that he didn't have a long track record of sustaining that type of success. This situation would be a lot more similar if Belly's underlying numbers were glorious and the question was simply whether he could repeat or not.
  25. Brownie19
    Interesting take - I'd probably agree that at this point, the best move for the medium-long term is for Atkins to fill holes with veteran stopgaps and rely on internal improvements from the cast of characters who s*** the bed last year (Vlad, Kirk, Manoah, Varsho, etc.) - along with some rookies who may be ready to step up (Schneider, Barger, Orelvis, etc.). But I can already hear the 'jays' fans calling for Atkins head if that doesn't exactly work out and the results aren't there. Completely unable to appreciate the position they are in, the limited options and long term implications of those decisions. Unable to realize that all options have a range of potential outcomes and even if you make the best decisions, they don't always work out. I'm fascinated to see how this all plays out.
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