glory

Teoscar was a 130-140 wRC+ player from 2020-22, and then had something like a 126 wRC+ on the road last season. He was destroyed by Safeco and prior to this season looked like a potential buy low candidate. He would have been a really good pick up for the Jays, though if it’s between the Jays and Dodgers on a short term deal, he clearly made the right choice.

I would imagine the team is going to prioritize getting under the luxury tax threshold soon. This high of a payroll (with the penalties that come with it) for a .500ish team that best case will get WC3 if it takes less than 82 wins to get it is simply not a smart way to run a team.

Yeah unless Atkins has an amazing trade deadline, there’s going to be some lean years coming up. Vlad has a 140 wRC+ hitting hard singles all day. There’s a lot of upside that a good org could possibly unlock. I think an extension is a good idea.

They gave rest days to two of their best hitters on the same night in favor of two slap dick singles hitters with OPS's in the .500's. wRC+ vs LHP this season: Varsho: 122 Jansen: 140 Kirk: 48 KK: 74 There is no game plan.

A tax paying team that is not only this bad but also this unwatchable should be a fireable offense. Hopefully some team, any team, runs away with the 3rd WC so there's no delusional decision making next month. Looking at the rest of the schedule in June, I think the Jays should be able to take care of that themselves, though.

Jays lineup against Mason Miller. This should be fun.

Twins, Rays, Red Sox, Tigers, and Rangers all lost tonight, so gotta win this one to get closer to the 83 win WC3 spot.

Maybe benching two of the best hitters on the team this season on the same night when the offense is already ass to begin with isn’t a smart move (unless there’s an injury I’m not aware of).

Sucks for Manoah as that likely takes him out of 2025 as well (or at least most of it). The 2025 rotation looks like Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, and then a whole bunch of uncertainty.

Agreed that Horowitz and Vogelbach shouldn't be on the same roster, so from that standpoint it was a strange roster move, but Biggio was a far bigger risk to steal PA's from Horowitz than Vogelbach is. From that standpoint it's probably a good thing for Horowitz and possibly for the Jays depending on how he hits. Horowitz skill set of contact, no power, line drives, and using all fields is like the 2023-24 Blue Jays wet dream so I'm sure he'll get plenty of burn.

Doesn't Horowitz have extreme platoon splits? I believe the A's are starting a LHP tonight so that's probably the reason he isn't in the lineup. Why Jansen and Varsho are benched on the same day is a more concerning question.

Thought for sure it would be Vogelbach. Pleasantly surprised they finally pulled the plug on Biggio.

Horowitz and Barger should be replacing Vogelbach and Biggio on the roster. Whatever order they want to make those changes is up to them, but that should be goal.

Clement is out of options, so don't think it will be him given how Atkins usually looks at depth. Logically it really doesn't make sense to have all of Vlad, Turner, Vogelbach, and Horowitz on the same team, even if Horowitz can cosplay at 2B/LF occasionally. Clement at the very least looks like he can be a competent platoon IF, and Biggio is beloved by the Jays org for reasons I can't really wrap my head around. It will be Vogelbach most likely.

If that's the case, then DeMarlo Hale might have to manage tonight. I don't think JS would be able to hold it together for the first 24 hours after hearing the news. But realistically, I think it's more likely to be the end of Danny Burgers, unless Biggio can be sent down. We shall see.

With the team playing Horowitz at 2B in the minors, that would make sense. Clement at least hits LHP so he has some value to the club. Biggio's only value comes from being Craig's son.

What's crazy is Vlad killed fastballs as recently as 2022 (.586 SLG and .403 xwOBA against 4SFB's that year). It's gotten progressively worse since despite exit velocity, hard hit rate, etc, still being excellent. There's not a doubt in my mind now that the next team Vlad is on will unlock his potential.

Only way I see the Jays realistically making the playoffs is if they remain close in mid July (like 1-2 back of the WC3), and then go 2015 AA at the deadline. The roster as is ain't it, and even replacing some dead weight with Horowitz and Barger (assuming Atkins remembers they exist) probably won't move the needle that much. They need a big move that adds impact (ex. Luis Robert type).

Yeah the KK signing was the most egregious one of the off season, with Turner 2nd. IKF, while an overpay, at least made sense given positional need. The Jays literally have no one anywhere in the org who looks like a capable 3B. They had a great defensive CF already in Varsho, and Horowitz in AAA who they could have platooned at DH with a cheap RHB off the bench.

I wonder what the O's would give up for Kikuchi? If there's any team with expendable minor league position player depth, it's them.

Your Braves comparison is not applicable here. You're comparing a 2 month sample size (Braves) to something going on 2 years now (Jays). No one was questioning the Jays offensive strategy at this time in 2023 because the sample was small enough to where more people were expecting things to turn around than questioning whether there was an issue. Now it does feel like a real issue. If the Braves are still hitting like this 12 months from now, I don't think they'd promote their existing coaches, but who knows. I think you're taking the "idolized Mattingly" thing a little too seriously. My point is Atkins is old school (he only looks like a nerd), and promoting Donnie Baseball after what we saw in 2023 made absolutely no sense. This contact heavy approach is all over the organization, so it's not even Donnie in isolation, it's the entire org, that's why it's hard to pinpoint what exactly the issue is or how/why it started. I don't think it's as simple as "the players who used to be really good all just began sucking in their mid 20's". There is a reason why this team hasn't developed a good position player since Bo/Vlad other than Davis Schneider, and they literally had him sitting on the bench for Cavan Biggio in April. I don't think it's pinned down to "1 thing". I just like talking s*** about Mattingly, but it's all over the org, and if change happens, it has to happen everywhere, not just at the big league level.

IKF on the 2015 Jays or 2021-22 Jays would have been much better. He’s a good utility piece on a team that doesn’t need offense. He’s just a bad fit for this team due to their offensive issues.

Preparation, approach, everything seems off with the hitters since 2023. I tend to agree it’s not all on the players. Something is not right within the org. Atkins being a former minor leaguer in the 90s probably idolized Don Mattingly, so that’s his idea of fixing this offense, and it’s simply not going to work in 2024. They need to do an org wide shift in offensive philosophy/training. If Donaldson has any interest in coaching, then hire him or someone who shares his views on hitting.

IKF had a 157 PA stretch in 2023 where he had a 133 wRC+. He finished the season exactly where he usually does. I'd be surprised if he's significantly better than what he normally is by the end of the season. If that leads to a 2 WAR because of defense, then I'm not sure if that's much of a flex, but certainly a useful player. More useful to a good team, though.

They fixed O’Hearn (or he became better somehow) and then gave him more playing time. He’s more comparable to someone like Clement than Vogelbach/Turner. Regardless, the fact that they spent $15m on Turner/Vogelbach (what was their combined projection, 1 WAR?) instead of just playing the 26 year old DH they had on their roster making $700k is pretty indicative of what I’m talking about. I understand the depth and options component to all of this but it’s kind of meaningless when the depth are the ones with potential and the big leaguers (KK, Turner, Craig’s son, Vogelbach, etc) are fungible no upside talent making a combined $30m. There’s a disconnect somewhere. Or the org wasn’t being genuine about wanting “waves of talent”.