glory

I think what’s more frustrating is that they are playing Vlad at 3B now, which opens up 1B and DH, but that configuration is being done so that 150 year old Turner and Vogelbach can be in the lineup at the same time. The Orioles manipulate lineups and positions to play actual prospects, while the Jays do it for guys who will be retired or sign a MiLB deal after this season. Horowitz, Barger, and Martinez are not on the level of the O’s prospects, but playing them over 0-1 WAR talent seems like kind of a no brainer for a club that wants “waves of prospects”.

One thing I remember about 2015, that rings more true today, is Cleveland fans on social media celebrating Shapiro leaving. I didn't understand it at the time, but boy does it make sense now.

He has an option for 2025 as well. Dude will be 28 before he gets a chance somewhere.

When has Atkins ever sold high on a Major League talent? He sells high on minor league talent that end up being trash anyway, but I don’t recall a single time where a player with team control was overachieving/playing well and the team decided to sell high. Maybe I’m forgetting someone. I’m not sure IKF would have much value regardless, but even if he did, it’s more likely the team views him as 3B depth next season than a trade chip. Would be pretty slick if they could trade him and get something useful, though. I just don’t see it, both because of his trade value and because Atkins probably has no interest in doing it. Jansen, Kikuchi, Garcia, Richards, Turner, KK. Those are probably the trade chips. If Atkins trades anyone controlled through 2025, then he’s become a changed man.

The argument was "there was nothing Atkins could do" to fix the offense, which if true, leads to a bunch of other questions that directly fall on Atkins' feet. If the core wasn't good enough then he could have pivoted. Maybe trade Bo, or Vlad, or Romano, or whoever. Switch the core up. He didn't do that. If the FA market sucked, then he could have filled holes internally, at least the ones with obvious candidates available (ex. Horowitz, possibly Barger). My point wasn't that Atkins was the only GM that overpaid players (though I don't think Teoscar falls under that category, that's a separate discussion), but rather that if the options available to him all sucked, then he spent $40m in a market that had no chance of putting the team over the top, so either way that puts him in a bad light. Realistically, if the Jays had signed Teoscar and Hoskins (just using examples brought up before), then even if they still fell short of a contender, at least those moves would have made sense given the team's needs (mainly power). Doubling down on defense when a big part of 2023's success came from completely unsustainable pitcher health (and in some cases performance) was not the right path, and many people said as much at the time, especially since it was reasonable to expect that all of KK, IKF, and Turner would be downgrades offensively from 2023 KK, Chapman, and Belt (though IKF has done well so far). Then the one area where defense was irrelevant and they needed a middle of the order bat, they went with 100 year old Justin Turner and the one player in the league who makes 2020 Vlad look like Hercules by comparison. Again, if the argument is the Jays realistically could not have signed anyone that could have turned this team into a true contender, then no disagreement from me. The moment they promoted Mattingly you got the sense that the team didn't view 2023 as an issue but rather a blip, which has been proven wrong this season. However, I'm not sure that argument really makes Atkins look better. Ultimately the biggest issue with the team as we have mentioned a million times is player development, so what Atkins did in the off season was basically irrelevant to the larger issues with this team.

The Jays spent about $40m on IKF/KK/Turner/Vogelbach this winter, in a weak FA market where players (when they weren't settling for MiLB deals) were signing for peanuts. Even if you truly believe that there was "no way Atkins could have fixed the offense", which presents another set of questions (like why the hell didn't he retool if there was no way to fix this?), then he set fire to $40m and put the Jays in the CBT territory again (which will lead to further penalties with picks and int'l signings) for a team that was never going to be good enough. If he pocketed that money and put Horowitz at DH (with a cheap RHB to platoon with him), Barger at 3B/LF, etc, would the team be that much worse (or worse at all)? Atkins is to blame regardless of how you want to look at it, whether anyone is defending him or not. If the FA market sucks and it isn't worth spending money on it, then....don't spend. Problem solved. Spending $40m in a market where 1-2 WAR players were signing for $2m AAV's and then saying "there was nothing he could have done" is more damning of Atkins than it is anything else. Ultimately, I agree with MikeM about the process, not necessarily the core, being the issue. If they don't want to rebuild then change the org structure (hitting coaches/philosophy, etc) and see if there is more juice to be squeezed out of the young players rather than just assuming they are unfixable because they decided to turn into singles hitters the moment they locked eyes for Don Mattingly.

If Atkins was a true seller (he won’t be), then he will definitely hedge on any trades. So if he traded Bichette next month (he won’t), then it would be for Luciano and change, for example, so he’d have an MLB ready player to replace Bichette. If Shatkins’ last time selling is any indication, then replace Luciano with Trey Sweeney for a more accurate MLB ready return but you get the point. I wouldn’t mind keeping Vlad and working on an extension with him, but keeping Bichette is insanity if they fall out of it. They even have a SS prospect in AAA who could be adequate.

Shatkins was in this exact same position around this time in 2017, an old team at the end of its competitive window coming off 3+ million in attendance the previous season. We saw what they did. They've either learned their lesson or they'll prove to be believers in the definition of insanity. I think we all know which direction they will choose.

Turner is going to have a negative wRC+ against RHP at this rate. Just call up Spence and use Turner as a lefty masher.

I doubt this is more than a 1 game thing, unless he looks like Scott Rolen defensively today. With that said, with the way the season has gone and looks like it will go in the next couple of weeks, why not? Just run with it going forward. It's not like they have a great 3B option anywhere in the org.

Desperation is very apparent.

Giants and Dodgers both need a SS. Would be irresponsible to keep Bo at this point.

Nicely done Babe. Now don’t play Biggio again.

I’ve said it before, being a SP for the 2023-24 Jays has to be infuriating. Give up a run or two and it feels like you’ve lost the game already.

Unfortunately, Morosi still has a career after he used Reddit as a source for the Ohtani stuff.

Yeah Kikuchi and Garcia definitely, and possibly Jansen unless they want to keep him for 2025-beyond (still might be worth pursuing a trade in that scenario as you can just sign him as a FA). Beyond that and whatever BS fodder they can get for Turner and KK, I wouldn’t expect anything drastic. The 3rd WC competition still looks very mid to me so it’s possible a mini run could get them into the buyers position, which says more about the competition than it does the Jays.

That's the issue, the Jays don't need a band aid fix, they need legit impact talent, and I really don't see a realistic avenue to get one. The only one I can think of that would be available in July is Luis Robert, and he'd cost the only decent prospects the Jays have (and even that may not be enough). I mean if the Jays don't want to rebuild then they might as well trade Orelvis/Tiedemann/whatever else to get Robert as he's under team control through 2027 via team options. If you're going to try to squeeze more juice out of this core then you need a trade like that, not the Turner/KK/IKF type signings.

This would be the preferable route. Just call up actual prospects and see what they can do. If you're lucky you get Davis Schneider, or maybe you get Addison Barger's cup of coffee in the bigs, but it's better than finding some vetrin scrub off the scrap heap and hoping for a miracle.

Yeah Romano is the closer until he blows enough games to where they have no choice but to do something about it (see Swanson).

Jimenez after this season will also be Ross Atkins’ worst nightmare: a 40 man roster player with no options. Either going to trade him or he’ll be on the 26 man next season. Would be nice if he could develop into a starting caliber SS.

6 singles in the inning. Mattingly had to excuse himself to cry tears of joy before coming back to the dugout.

If Orelvis can't play 2B/SS/3B at a respectable level then I'm not even sure he's an impact prospect either. It's a pretty grim system. They have only developed 1 SP in 9 years (Manoah) and the only impact position players they have developed since the Vlad/Bo call ups are Kirk for a year and a half before he fell off, and now Davis Schneider. I'm not even sure what the solution to this is because what they actually need (a complete overhaul of their player development and ideally a new front office) will take years to implement effectively, and the Jays aren't rebuilding any time soon.

Sad day for baseball.

Agreed. I don’t particularly care for Vladimir Arraez Jr. hitting hard singles all day but the Savant page is red and we have seen power from him before. Mattingly won’t be in this org forever, unless the Baseball God’s really hate us, so I think there’s still some upside in a Vlad extension. He’s also still young enough that even if the team has to take a 2 year step back he would still be in his late 20’s by the time the team (hopefully) turned the corner again. Risky? Yes. But I think it might be worth it depending on the contract. I feel the exact opposite about Bichette.

I think that’s the main issue. Vlad’s perception of his value vs his actual value. That’s why it’s going to be hard to find a number/term that makes sense for both sides. If there was a Matt Olson type of extension available and both sides were fine with it, then it would be ideal. Vlad probably doesn’t mind waiting a year and seeing what the future holds, especially since he’s going to make around ~$45m in arbitration in 2024-25 anyway. No chance the Jays non tender him even if he was 2023 Vlad again.