glory

I’ve said before, trade Bichette at the deadline. It won’t be for 100% value but 1) waiting doesn’t guarantee the return will be better (see Donaldson 2018) and 2) the extra year of control could balance out the performance in a trade return. It won’t be a franchise altering return but the Jays have an internal replacement and need cheap, young talent badly that they have been unable to draft themselves.

Gord Ash was the worst GM in Jays history, but his seasons were generally more entertaining than 2023-24 and the JP Ricciardi years. The JP years in particular were some of the blandest teams imaginable. Lose Delgado and "re-create him in the aggregate" with Koskie and Hillenbrand, draft 22 year old white dudes pretty much in every round for years, ignore the international market completely, etc. Halladay's prime was the only thing that made that era watchable. Atkins was actually fine with me from 2020-22, but lost me completely in 2023, and it got worse in 2024.

The Yankees biggest strength is creating/repairing relievers, so it will be interesting to see what they can do with Mayza despite the lower velocity. Probably not much but who knows.

Were Happ and Stroman the best SP’s available in the 2018 and 2019 deadlines respectively? I don’t recall but if they weren’t the best, then they were damn close. Atkins can still mess this up. Regardless, the Orioles would be an interesting trade partner. If any team has expendable position player prospect depth, it’s them. Joey Ortiz was expendable to them while he’d have been the Jays best prospect by a landslide before this season. They’d likely have interest in Kooch and Garcia (if healthy).

Dodgers have a bunch of injuries to the rotation and want every good Japanese player in the Majors, so I think that’s where he ends up. Plus they have a bunch of ready or near ready prospects/young players, and if Atkins is making the trades, then that’s what he’s going to be aiming for in return. The Jays really need to get this trade right. Him and Garcia are the only ones who might actually get a decent return. The others will get Thomas Hatch and Forrest Wall 2.0’s.

I could see Berrios being shopped in the off season if someone like Click or some other actual nerd took over, but if it's the same FO trying to put together a winning team in 2025, then I just don't see any of the top 3 (Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios) being moved. Tiedemann is still a big question mark, Manoah is hurt, and they don't seem in any rush to promote Macko (unless I missed it) who is the only other pitching prospect in the org with a pulse, so they will need innings from others. I'd bring Jansen back as well, whether by extending him now or trading him + bringing him back as a FA. His 2024 season has been disappointing (last 120 PA or so have been horrendous), but I think the offensive profile is worth betting on, especially now if his price has dropped due to a dip in performance. If you can get him at an AAV around $10m or slightly less, then it's a no brainer. But depends on what his market is. I'm really curious who is the one making the deals at the deadline. Atkins is obviously the GM but if his standing with the org is on thin ice then it doesn't make sense for him to make these deals.

Wins aren’t as important as team direction. If the team has already internally decided to sell at least the impending FAs and use the rest of 2024 on the prospects, then they can win or lose as much as they want. It is ultimately irrelevant, especially with the draft lottery now. I’d rather the prospects look good and if leads to wins then that might be a good thing for future teams, but if they end up losing 95 games then so be it. I just don’t want to watch an old, expensive, bad team.

If Horwitz is a passable/average 2B, then that’s a much better outcome for him and the team than if he were a 1B/DH. His bat obviously plays better at 2B and if the team decides to extend Vlad (which I still expect to happen) then it’s a better roster fit as well. Still too small of a defensive sample though.

Zach Pop should be warming up right now. Our high leverage tank leader.

KK allowed to hit a LHB but Horwitz pulled for DS against a lefty. If the Jays don’t trade some vetrins soon, a season that is already unwatchable will be downright torture.

Nimmala up to a 106 wRC+ in A ball now. Holding his own at 18 after a brutal start. Still very much a boom or bust prospect, but the season certainly looks a little better now. A front office change, if/when it happens, would come at a great time for him and others in low A. Don't corrupt anyone with even a modicum of upside by telling them to level their swing to hit more grounders in order to reduce swing and miss. Let that mindset drift off with Atkins, Donnie, and the rest of the think tank currently in charge.

Varsho is closing in on 900 PA since the trade. Streaky or not, the 89 wRC+ combined with the horrid expected/statcast data is probably more in line with what he is. Still a useful player, probably around a 2.5-3 WAR as long as his defense remains, but clearly not the type of player the Jays were envisioning when they traded Moreno for him. At least I hope not.

To add to this, from BA prior to the 2024 season: "After showing a more aggressive approach and more in-game power in 2021 and 2022, Barger showed more patience in 2023 and a toned-down launch angle. This in turn produced a more consistent bat path, and he showed improvements in contact, in-zone contact and swing decisions. Barger traded some fly balls for line drives and ground balls, but he closed some of the holes in his swing." It's definitely an organizational thing.

The Angels were not only desperate but also delusional, so I wouldn't expect a team in 2024 to act like that for 2 months of Kikuchi, but hopefully there is one.

Varsho has 267 more plate appearances than Moreno over that span, and a lower wRC+ (89 vs 103 for Moreno), which makes the WAR comparison worse for Varsho. Moreno is not the 2nd coming of Jason Kendall like some Jays fans were acting like last year, but the Jays clearly whiffed on this deal. Not only did they miscalculate what Varsho is offensively, but they intentionally put him in LF for reasons that I still can't comprehend, so it was just doomed to fail from the beginning.

Kikuchi should have a decent trade market but hard to tell what an impending FA will get in a trade. Really depends on how desperate the trading team is. Kooch prior to 2023 has a very mediocre track record, and he’s in his mid 30’s. I think if the Jays keep him and qualify him, then there’s a good chance he just accepts it even with Boras as his agent but depends on how his final numbers look.

Yeah this feels a lot like the 2009 and 2017 seasons. Very boring team, boring farm system, and we can’t really look forward to anything without massive changes which may or may not happen (it did happen in 2009 with AA and the 2010 retool/rebuild, not so much in 2017-18). There’s practically no chance this team does anything at the deadline except trade impending FAs, so the rest of the season will playing out the string with a core that has 1 year left on it. The worst thing about the 2023 identify shift is that Atkins just brought in boring white dudes. “Put your head down and act like you’ve done it before” types. A bunch of Grichuk’s personality wise. The Phillies give ice cooler baths every post game and everyone loves it, but Vlad does it and his teammates look like they want to kill him. The vibes suck. Just a boring product in every possible way.

I like how the Jays were down 9-2 but JS still let Bo and Varsho hit in the 9th rather than letting Jimenez and Berroa get plate appearances. The 2nd half of the season without any meaningful trades to free up playing time is going to feel like an eternity.

High leverage Zach Pop going to bring this team a top 5 pick.

The D-Backs traded him at the perfect time. I don't think he'll have as much value if traded now. Offense looks below average or average at best, and he's great defensively. That will have value as a ~3 WAR OF, but not sure any team is trading top prospects for 2 non-cheap years of that. Might as well just hold him, especially if the intention is to contend in 2025 (as questionable as that direction might be given the talent level on the roster).

His AAV over the next 2 seasons for what he is won’t be awful but those player options in 2027-28 are going to be really bad ($24m per with incentives tied to innings which is the one thing he does well so it’s only going to up). If Atkins is fired and someone like Click takes over, then I could definitely see Berrios being shopped in the winter. Whether he’d have any market at all with that contract is the question.

Jimenez won’t play SS as long as Bo is on the team (hell, Jimenez may not play at all knowing JS). Only a few more weeks of the vetrins playing and then hopefully there’s some changes in Aug/Sept. Whether Jimenez, Horwitz, DS, Barger, and eventually Orelvis can be MLB starters remains to be seen but at least seeing all of them in the lineup regularly would be something to watch for over the final two months of this dreadful season.

The Astros are going to win the West again. Was hoping they'd have a down year and let someone else win it for once. I don't believe in the Mariners offense to maintain 1st place.

.245 xwOBA is disgusting. Didn’t realize his expected stats were that bad. Playing him in LF is insane given what his bat is even in a best case scenario (league average).