glory

I’d be fine with Vlad on a monster FA deal but no thanks on Bichette beyond 2025. That quote from Bo is better than if he said the opposite though, so doesn’t hurt.

Since the trade deadline he's played 2B just 4 times, with the last time being 8/18. With Wagner's emergence and the depth they have there, it's possible they are fine with him at 1B/DH now. He can still play 2B occasionally so it adds to his versatility. The question if he is going to more in the 1B/DH role is whether the power can materialize.

Francis has only had a handful of starts where he's looked great, and Yariel has been up and down (expected given his lack of pitching over the years). Not sure I'd say both are clearly good enough for the rotation, at least good enough to where they feel comfortable not signing anyone else. It's a much safer (and likely better) approach to have 1 in the rotation and 1 in the pen as long as the SP they sign is better than at least one of the top 3 (Gausman/Berrios/Bassitt), preferably better than 2. Also, looking at the org, it's increasingly likely that they need a SP more than offense for beyond 2025 as well. Aside from Francis/Yariel being long term question marks, Bassitt is a FA after 2025, and Gausman after 2026. Their best pitching prospect is probably Bloss at this point and he likely profiles as a bottom of the rotation SP. Tiedemann is likely a RP. Manoah is a non factor until 2026 (and his last full season before injury was a disaster). A long term deal for a SP who you can reasonably hope to be a 2-3 starter over the next few years is probably necessary.

Yeah I thought the Jays should have extended Jansen, but turns out they were smart not to. Would it surprise me if he bounced back with the bat next season? Not at all, so if his market is non existent and he's willing to sign a cheap short term year deal, then go for it. If it's something larger than that, then not sure the Jays can afford to allocate that much to a backup/split catcher when they have a bunch of other needs and a one year window. A trade for a controllable catcher that is blocked on another team would be ideal since Kirk only has 2 years of control left and I can't name a catcher in the Jays system off the top of my head, so it doesn't look like help is on the way any time soon.

If Manny and Ortiz worked, then Vlad/Soto would as well. I’d have no issues with those two on the roster for the next 10 years, especially with the shape of the farm system (improved depth but lacking real impact). Soto’s offensive profile is practically perfect from a long term risk standpoint, and if 2024 Vlad is for real, then his is in the same category (vs someone like Bo whose profile has red flags all over it long term even before 2024’s numbers).

Depends on what the front office’s objective is. If their jobs are on the line and they want to contend then there’s no chance they enter 2025 with the same rotation. If their jobs are safe and they know they have to rebuild, but want to pretend to try in 2025 before an expected sell off mid season, then maybe they’d be fine with taking a chance on Francis/Yariel at 4/5 and just signing depth SPs like Stripling or something as a fall back. I can’t imagine Atkins’ job is safe with Shapiro entering next season as a lame duck, so I think they sign a SP. Even if it’s a Bassitt style short term deal for someone like Eovaldi, they need a front or mid rotation option in addition to what they already have.

Boras signing that deal before testing free agency means that either Chapman didn't want to hit free agency again or Boras knew no other team was going to offer that. Maybe both. As mentioned, good for Chapman to maximize his earnings, but glad another team gave him that deal. That leaves Bregman or a buy low on Moncada as the only real 3B options in free agency. Hopefully Barger's bat improving is legit and he can cover 3B. That's probably the team's best hope for next season as far as 3B is concerned.

Close to a billion. Vlad is probably looking at $350-400M to forgo free agency, and the Jays would have to outbid Steve Cohen for Soto, so that’s going to be a ridiculous figure. I’d have no issues with it. The Jays offensively are well suited to do it because they have a bunch of guys in the 1-2 WAR talent range making $750k for the next few years (Martinez, Jimenez, Barger, Horwitz, Wagner, DS, soon Roden). The tough part will be figuring out the pitching situation, but if they were to sign Soto then the budget would have to adjust accordingly. Pipe dream but from the sounds of it Soto is in it for the money over location, so just outbid Cohen, the Yankees, Dodgers, Nats, etc. Easy.

Barring injury, I think #4/5 starter is most realistic, and that would still be found money for the team. Anything above that would be amazing, though less likely.

Problem with trading Bassitt at the deadline was that another team would have been on the hook for $21m in 2025. Not sure he would be valued at that price point by another team. Green falls under the same criteria. There's not much (if any) surplus value in their 2025 salaries. They are far more likely to fetch something in July 2025 if the Jays are out of it.

I'd have to look it up, but I'm pretty sure the 2024 Orioles look like the most diverse team in baseball compared to the JP Ricciardi Blue Jays.

Not signing a SP and expecting to even cosplay as a contender next season would be a mistake. The current rotation/depth over 162 in 2025 would get eaten alive. A lot of things have to go right and that's not even factoring health. They have to sign someone and push one of Yariel/Francis to the pen. If it's Snell, then so be it, but they need someone preferably at #3 level or better.

Anyone who doesn't say Soto is crazy. It's a huge long shot, probably not even worth dreaming about, but if you want to make a ridiculous overpay on anyone, Soto is the guy. They'd have to extend Vlad though for that to even have a glimmer of hope. Selling Soto on playing next to another Dominican star player who is basically the same age would be one of the few selling points they have. Judge will be 33 next season, and Lindor 31. Soto is 5 months older than Vlad. Defer money, do what you have to do, but that's the player to get. More realistically, something like Eovaldi and Santander or Walker would probably be fair. Term shouldn't be that long due to age, and there's 3 WAR potential there for each of them. There are enough warts on Tier 2/3 to have some pause on signing them, either due to the years they'd want, the money, or both.

Vlad at 3B does seem like the best option. Not sure how he'd hold up there all season (even if it's 70% of the time) but it's the position he wants to play and he'll be motivated to get that massive contract, so 2025 is the year to try it, IMO. If it fails, then so be it. Move him back to 1B/DH. The 3B market is Bregman and nothing. The minors is McAdoo (if he can even play there long term) and nothing. There are way more capable 1B/DH options in FA than 3B options. Not sure a left side of the IF of Vlad and Bo in 2025 will be fun to watch from a defensive aspect, but add wins where you can, and the Jays need to start adding it on offense rather than defense.

Yeah the Jays don’t need depth, they need impact. Even if they sign one impact player and go cheap elsewhere, that’s probably a more sensible approach than trying to add 1 or 2 WAR players in bulk. Between Horwitz, Loperfido, Jimenez, Barger, Schneider, Wagner, and Clement, they probably have enough depth pieces to cover for injuries. Now they need to add players closer in talent level to Vlad and pre 2024 Bo. That’s going to be tough because the market doesn’t have many of those types, and the few they have are risky long term bets (Bregman, Alonso) but that’s the reality of the situation if they want to throw that Hail Mary attempt at contention. At this point just give 13/650 to Soto or whatever insane number it will take and stars/scrubs the rest of the roster.

Bloss getting wrecked in his start tonight. It's the 2nd inning and he's already given up 3 HR's, 2 BB's, and 8 ER.

I think the Jays need to look at the trade market to fix at least one of the holes. Free agency isn't going to fix everything, and they have a bunch of depth cluttered in the upper minors so some might be expendable. I don't mind one FA contract that is a bit of an overpay but if they are going for multiple, then that's where teams get in trouble. I'd rather trade for an arb eligible Tyler O'Neill than sign him to a multi year FA deal into his 30's. I guess wait for MLBTR to do their projected arb salaries and see who might be a realistic trade piece. Wouldn't mind taking a chance on someone who hasn't developed yet but is showing interesting enough statcast numbers like Jesus Sanchez, but who knows if he's available or not. I think the one FA that fits what the Jays typically like (lower K rate) while also checking other boxes (switch hitter, big power) is Santander, so I'd expect them to be involved in that market. He can start at DH and also cover RF for Springer, so it's a double benefit. Just a matter of what his price tag is going to be. I really don't see another realistic impact FA option since Soto is a massive pipe dream, Alonso plays the same position as Vlad (+ has Boras an agent), and Bregman (another Boras guy) is a bit too risky for me given his age and the amount of years he'd likely want. If they didn't want Teoscar on a multi year deal last winter when he was coming off a Safeco impacted down year, then I can't see them revisiting that now that he's boosted his value. They also could have traded table scraps for Tyler O'Neill and didn't do it (though maybe they tried).

Since July 5: NYY: 24-18 (---) TOR: 25-19 (---) TAM: 21-22 (3.5) BAL: 20-24 (5.0) BOS: 19-24 (5.5) Even going back a bit further, it's actually pretty close all the way around. Since May 19: NYY: 46-39 (---) BAL: 48-41 (---) BOS: 45-40 (1.0) TOR: 46-43 (2.0) TAM: 40-44 (5.5) The Jays have a negative run differential in both stretches, though nothing crazy bad. A .500ish team based on their existing talent level is probably right.

Santander would probably be more appealing to the Jays than Alonso. Should be (a lot) cheaper and is a switch hitter. The Jays badly need power in the lineup. I’d honestly be fine with Vlad at 3B and Horwitz at 1B at this point. If Vlad is extended then they could always move him back to 1B down the line but if not extended then just put the best possible lineup you can out there if the intention is to contend. Vlad at 3B is likely part of the best lineup they can realistically field even if he’s bad defensively. Contract year playing the position he’s always wanted to play, I’d take that gamble as long as they spend wisely on another bat.

Only way I see Bichette moved is if the relationship between him and the org is fractured. Otherwise, as much as I fear his offensive profile and lower body injuries, he's the only player aside from Vlad with 4 WAR potential on the roster. Well, I guess Varsho too, but that's almost entirely on defense. If they want to contend in 2025, then Bichette probably gives them the best shot. Although I wouldn't be against starting Jimenez at SS and trading Bo to fill other areas. That may not be the best way to maximize 2025 wins but probably a better move long term depending on what Bo's trade value will look like in the winter (and what you think Jimenez could do in a full season at short). The easiest position to fill internally is going to be 2B. Jimenez and Clement are out of options, then you have Wagner, Orelvis, and maybe DS if he's fixable. One of those options (or a combination) should be able to fill that spot pretty well. It's 3B and LF that will be the trouble areas, especially 3B. Really hoping McAdoo is actually good and can stick at 3B because that position looks dire throughout the org, and I really don't want a massive Bregman contract on the books for years to come. Maybe sticking Vlad there for a year isn't the worst idea. I'd be fine with a buy low on Moncada as well but it's been a few years since he's been good.

That quote from Vlad certainly doesn't seem like something a player who is willing to take a discount would say, but who knows.

Keeping the lineup the same and just replacing players is fine but pretending it’s June from a statistical standpoint is ridiculous.

Young players who raked in the minors vs. washed vetrins. The pre deadline Jays were depressing to watch.

They are giving Loperfido a long look in LF, and JS would probably quit before he benches Springer, so I don’t think there would be much opportunity for Roden barring injury. Roden doing well is certainly a good thing though.

If Francis is simply a capable #5 caliber starter moving forward, then that would still be a huge development for the Jays. If he's better than that, then obviously it's found money. I mean it's been 9 years, they should have gotten lucky with a pitching prospect by now. Hopefully Francis is that guy.