glory

Rogers is allowing a lame duck team president (and since they are an extension of each other, a lame duck GM as well) to handle the 2025 roster. Those two have absolutely zero reason to care about payroll flexibility, maximizing assets, or farm system for 2026-beyond. Their only priority is going to be to add as many wins in 2025 as they can within their assigned payroll. Front offices with their backs against the wall may not operate in good faith or with any sort of long term vision. There's potential for things to get pretty ugly depending on what type of contracts or trades (or both) that are made this winter. If they give Alex Bregman a 7 or 8 year deal, and get a 4.8 WAR in 2025 out of it, then are they going to care what the contract looks like in 2026-32? They may not even be around to have to deal with it, and if they are, then it means the signing worked and they'd likely have gotten extensions out of it. There's going to be at least one big/bad contract handed out this winter. If it's for Soto, then great, but it won't be, so just have to hope it gives the team a short term boost (and a memorable one ala 2015-16) and/or hope whoever the FA is ages like Adrian Beltre.

Yeah, Atkins essentially messed up every step of the way from 2017-19 (every trade/MLB signing he made during that span aside from Teoscar was dog s***), but still had Vlad/Bo, so that combined with increasing payroll was able to create the 2021-23 window. We can still dream on the payroll part, Rogers has been pretty good there, but the lack of talent in the minors is making it hard to see when the light at the end of the tunnel might actually be visible. The margin for error during the transition years this time around won't be the same as last time.

Ownership, payroll, and the fact that the one thing Atkins has done at a solid-good level (until last off season) is MLB signings/trades is what keeps the Jays from being in the bottom tier. Otherwise the player development side alone would drag them down big time. They aren't Rockies/Angels bad in that area, but closer to them than to the middle. The fact that they've been able to spend to compensate for the lack of player development is huge, and to their credit they've done reasonably well in that area prior to KK/JT/IKF/Vogelbach/Green. The issue is sustainability. As we saw in 2024, being able to outspend your mistakes/limitations doesn't have a long shelf life.

Last year they dumped $50m into KK, IKF, Turner, Green, Rodriguez, and Vogelbach. I wouldn't assume a wild card contender is going to come out of spending money.

Even the big leaguers who might be high impact performers are not locked up beyond 2026. So even if 2025 ends up being successful and even if they extend Vlad, there’s still a question of how sustainable any sort of contention really is. It’s pretty bleak but a great off season might change our perspective (hopefully).

Yeah I think the Jays have trapped themselves here. Losing Vlad for nothing (or for 50 cents on the dollar at the deadline) for a Hail Mary attempt for 2025 is completely illogical, and the farm system isn’t producing another star any time soon. At least when Shatkins fumbled 2017-18, there was a light at the end of the tunnel (Vlad/Bo). That light doesn’t exist today. They really can’t afford to lose Vlad at this point unless they want to have a boring rebuilding team that can’t get a top 10 pick again while trying to fill premium seats at a renovated stadium. I mean maybe Shatkins is looking forward to the next chapter where they can have a lineup of Horwitz, Roden, Kasevich, Wagner, Shreck, and whoever else they can find that will hit 10-12 home runs with a sub 20 K%, but that’s neither marketable to casuals or a recipe for an actual winning team. Give Vlad $350m or whatever it is, and then try to buy your way to more impact talent. At least they have a surplus of what looks like potential average big league talent making the minimum that they could use to fill other holes. It would have been nice if the Jays were the type of org that could lose Vlad and Bo to free agency and not skip a beat, but they aren’t even close to that level of an organization.

I'm all in on Yankees/Dodgers. You have a once in a century player (Ohtani) and a player coming off arguably the best clean offensive season ever (Judge). That's not even factoring future HOF'ers like Soto and Betts, plus Freeman, Cole, etc. Would have preferred the Padres making it on the NL side, but now that we're left with what we are left with, then give me as much greatness/entertainment as possible. I can't imagine anyone outside of Cleveland (and the Jays FO) actually enjoys watching the Guardians play, so have to root for the Yankees by default.

The logical answer with more playoff teams in the fold is to shorten the regular season and make the playoffs longer, but they'd never do that due to the revenue that 162 generates. Maybe shorten ST by a week, and then expand the DS to last 7 games instead of 5. The Wild Card round can be 3 games, it is what it is, but the actual playoff rounds should all be 7.

I’ll go with 11/350 if it’s an extension signed this winter. Although I think he ends up going to free agency, so that price could rise or fall depending on how he does in 2025.

Watching the Padres team and their fans is making me root for them to come out of the NL. Would be fine with a Yankees/Padres World Series. I have no interest seeing an AL Central team play for any longer than necessary.

This got me thinking how different this competitive window would have looked had the Jays succeeded in trading for Lindor. This was 2021, so chances are trading for Lindor would have meant no Semien, and Bichette likely never plays SS again for this team from 2021-present. Of course it would help to know what the trade actually looked like in terms of which players the Jays were losing.

It's only been a week, but these playoffs have already made up for last year's snooze fest. Almost every game has been high drama and highly entertaining.

That was a great game to watch as a fan of neither team. Back and forth, and dramatic in the end.

Say what you want about the Yankees, but from an entertainment standpoint, I'd much rather see Judge and Soto in the World Series than any of the Central teams. The NL side is great. Division rivals with fans that despise each other. Should be fun.

The Jays don't have much to trade but trading for one of their needs in the form of a player who is somewhere in years 3-6 in service time would take some of the financial pressure off. There will be some teams that are shedding payroll, especially those who have uncertainty with their local TV rights. Or if you feel 2024 was a blip then see if buying low on Luis Robert is on the table. Something along those lines. Throwing FA money at all of their problems is going to be impossible. They'll need to hit on a trade or a cost effective pickup that really works out.

Sure, but then you have to factor which owners/front offices have a history of risk vs risk aversion (i.e. who is more likely to spend beyond a comfortable level), as well as team situation, and so on. The largest FA deal the Jays have ever given was 6/150. Soto is going to get at least double the term and maybe 3-4 times the total value. Whereas we have seen the Phillies sign players to decade long deals (Harper, Turner). We have seen Cohen shatter market norms on AAV (Verlander, Scherzer) as well as another decade+ deal (Lindor). The Yankees are far more conservative with their spending with Hal than George but they are still the Yankees. The Dodgers will spend (and defer) anything. I'm not denying Rogers would make a big offer, but all those things into consideration, for a player of this magnitude (plus his age), it doesn't strike me as a very realistic scenario. I think Vlad and what happens with him will be a big test. He'll require one of those "uncomfortable" decade+ long deals in order to stay. I think Ohtani was a special case. He's the only global superstar in MLB, so I'm sure Rogers saw a lot more revenue potential in that signing than just signing a great baseball player, but who knows. Vlad will be a test on what their level of risk really is.

Yeah I don’t know how sustainable the Padres success is, and there are some bad contracts on their payroll for many more years but the team they have now is a legitimate World Series contender and fun to watch. The fanbase is amazing too. Pulling for them to come out of the NL.

It was implied that Rogers outbidding the Mets for Springer somehow helped the argument that they could do that with Soto as well. I’m saying it’s an apples to oranges comparison because the level of player is totally different. Like, night and day different. Age, projections, talent, injury risk, you name it. Cohen not wanting to go 6 years for a 31 year old OF doesn’t mean he’ll have the same level of restraint for a 25 year old generational talent on a HOF track. If your argument is “we don’t know what will happen”, well no s***. Maybe the Jays offer something that no one else will touch and get him. Maybe Soto chooses the last place team with a poor farm system and only 1 more year of control on Vlad, and says no to the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Dodgers (all playoff teams). Like I said I hope I’m wrong but me getting pushback for saying this has a very small chance of happening is crazy. I guess we can dream until about December or so.

The Jays gave 6 years to a 31 year old FA when no other team in the league (including Cohen) was willing to do it. Soto is one of the best players in the game at age 25/26. Cohen is not going to stop at 6 years, or 12 years, or whatever it takes to get him. That's my point. To outbid someone who isn't afraid to destroy market norms is going to be very difficult. The Jays signing Bregman to a 7 year deal when no other team is willing to go above 5 or 6 seems like a more likely outcome. I hope I'm wrong on Soto and he ends up a Jay, but outbidding the Yankees and Mets (and probably Dodgers, knowing them) seems like a very unlikely situation.

We are one inning away from possibly having an ALDS with 3 Central teams. Yankees fans are going to go nuts if they don't make the World Series this year (more than usual).

Soto might be 4 times what Springer got in total value. It's a different stratosphere, one that doesn't involve significant revenue potential like Ohtani would have brought in (which was likely a major factor in Rogers wanting to do it). No one is denying that Rogers spends on players, but we are talking about the biggest contract in MLB history (once you factor Ohtani's deferrals), and competing directly with the Yankees and Mets. There is a reason the 4th CBT tier is unofficially called the Steve Cohen Tax. Outbidding Cohen for Springer who was in his 30's when signed vs a future HOF at age 25 is night and day. Regardless, signing Bregman is likely not going to be cheap either. If Rogers greenlights signing him, then that would be a significant expenditure as well (one that I don't necessarily want, but could see happening).

I don't think Rogers will significantly outbid both the Yankees and Mets/Cohen, which is what it will take. If the contracts are close then I'm guessing Soto will prefer staying in NY. Soto is more realistic than Ohtani (who clearly preferred the West Coast/LA while Soto is probably more a $$ guy) but I'd still call it a massive long shot at best.

I wasn't even thinking of Soto when I said that as I don't think there's a chance in hell he signs with the Jays, but yes Soto would obviously be the prize (K rate or not). I was just looking at the more realistic FAs (meaning, everyone other than Soto).

The Jays have been pretty good with K% over the last few years. The 2021 team in particular, though skewed due to the ball parks, ranked 1st in HR/ISO and 2nd in K% (man, that team not making the playoffs hurt badly). Even the 2022 wasn't bad in both areas. It was 2023-24 when the bottom started falling out, especially 2024. The Jays have routinely been at about 20% K% since 2021 every year. They just haven't been able to develop power hitters or acquire them recently. I don't know if the dimension changes factor in here either, maybe or maybe not. Although 2024 wasn't the dimensions, as there isn't a drug in the world strong enough to convince anyone that KK/IKF/JT was going to add thump to the lineup. The FA available that is the best combination of low K's and good power is Bregman, so if this is Ross' 2015 AA moment, then that's probably his target.

I think Shapiro and Atkins are a package deal at this point, but who knows. What complicates things is Shapiro's deal ends after 2025 so I'm not sure it even makes sense for him to hire a new GM until it's clear that he's staying long term. Which leads to another issue: if he's not extended beyond 2025, then you have a lameduck president with a GM who is only sticking around because of said president making decisions during what could be one of the most important off seasons in Jays history.