glory
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
glory replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Diego Cartaya was DFA by the Dodgers. His numbers have tanked the last two seasons but he’s a former top prospect and would probably be the 2nd best catcher in the org if he came here (sadly), so might be worth a shot to see if something clicks with him. A team that has trouble drafting and developing needs to get lucky, -
If that's true then the Jays should hold firm at 4/82. I don't think any team is topping 4 years, and if Santander thinks he can get a similar or higher AAV elsewhere, then so be it. This is one of the rare times where the Jays sticking to their internal evaluations and not going over might actually work. Unless I'm underestimating Tony's market, I don't see him as a 5 year contract type of FA in today's game. Sometimes you have to be willing to swallow an extra year to get the player but make sure the player is worth it. I don't think Santander qualifies. Ryu was at least a top of the rotation SP and Springer a CF, so it was a bit more justifiable even though there was risk of bad/dead money towards the end.
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Yeah Bo's offensive profile is not one I'd want to trust on a long-term deal. I suspect he would have already been traded if he wasn't coming off such a down year in 2024. They have his replacement locked up, and about 100 2B as depth. I think this is a one and done with him. Vlad is the one they have to make the decision on. Bo's likely one foot out the door already. Have to hope money is a great motivator here.
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Vlad in his early to mid 20's is already a bad defensive 1B and either the worst baserunner in baseball or very close to it. That typically doesn't get better with age, and after he gets his big contract, can you be sure that motivation is not going to be an issue? I have no doubt that Vlad's bat has the potential to be special for many more years but if he wants to be one of the highest paid players in the game and feels his value is close to Soto's, then the Jays have a very tough decision to make. Either give him that money and live with the risk involved, or move on. If Vlad was a legit 3B, or OF, or any position with real value, and wasn't a complete sink hole on the bases then the case for a record deal would be a little bit better, but a bad defensive/baserunning 1B/DH for that term and dollar amount is scary.
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Vlad was quoted as saying he thinks he’s the best hitter in baseball or something to that effect during the 2024 season. If Soto got $800M, then no chance Vlad is settling for half of that, especially if he thinks he can have another elite season in 2025 and enter the market next winter with both NY teams and Boston needing/wanting him. I don’t think there is a number that Shapiro will be comfortable with. Rogers is a different story but they’ve been pretty hands off with baseball stuff under Shapiro. Trading Vlad if he can’t be extended and using that money to sign Alonso (even though he wouldn’t be my first choice) would be the first sign of a real plan by this regime in at least 12 months. I’ve said before you don’t have to rebuild but you do have to maximize assets that are not long term pieces. They did that with Teo, whether you agree or disagree with that trade. They didn’t view him as a long term piece and traded him for the best deal they could get and used the saved money to replace him. That should be done here if the two sides are that far off.
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Of all the "Blue Jays are the front runners for" rumors/BS out there this winter, this one seems like the most believable.
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Yeah I mean at this point the front office only cares about 2025 wins so having a $20M AAV vet DH after 2025 when they are likely rebuilding isn't going to do much harm. The question is whether Santander's 2025 is worth not only the draft pick but the possible bad money towards the end? I'm not sure his 2025 season is going to move the needle that much unless there are more moves in addition to that. Someone like Bregman makes more sense if they only want 2025 wins and are willing to eat any potential dead money afterwards (they probably won't be around to deal with it anyway, at least Atkins won't), but a 6-7 year deal for a 31 year old who already showed signs of decline before pen hit paper doesn't seem like a smart idea regardless of team direction. At least Santander you might get for 4 years from ages 30-33, which is more reasonable than ages 31-36 or 31-37.
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I want no part of Santander unless it’s a very short term deal (3 years or less, which it won’t be) but at this point the Jays don’t have much choice if they want to upgrade the 2025 roster, at least from a power standpoint. If they miss on Santander then there really isn’t much left. I guess the idea of adding Austin Hays and JD Martinez would work if the goal is to sell at the deadline (which they might do regardless of what happens this winter) but if they actually want to legitimately try to put a playoff contender out there then Santander is the best FA option they have. Or at least the safest one.
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AA and Shapiro are like oil and water. No chance they would have worked well together, though in theory I agree it could have worked if Shapiro stayed away from baseball decisions. Shapiro just handling Rogers and AA having full autonomy would have been fun, though AA pre-Dodgers was not the same guy he is now. I just don’t think Shapiro is hands off, and certainly wouldn’t have been with AA.
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Agreed on the payroll part but being “gifted Vlad” is probably a bit misleading. Vlad has been on the team for six seasons. Two of them were elite (2021, 2024). Two of them were replacement level quality (2019-20). One was very good but not elite (2022). One was a 1 WAR season (2023). If Shatkins was gifted Juan Soto then that would have been a different story, but in the 2 years the Jays made the non-Covid playoffs, Vlad’s combined WAR in those two seasons was below 5.0. He simply hasn’t been a great player enough times. They won because of moves around him most of the years he has been under team control. The 2023 team in particular almost won 90 games with Vlad as a 1.3 WAR player. Atkins deserves every criticism he gets but I think those 2020-23 teams were largely on the backs of players Atkins acquired, not the ones he inherited. That comes down to your other point, which was money/payroll. Without that, this team would have wasted way more of the Vlad/Bo years.
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Shapiro is clearly not a good executive if he’s making the exact same mistake twice within 8 years and expecting different results. If he’s cunning enough to get Rogers to spend into the luxury tax then he should be able to convince them to cut bait one year early rather than wait until the bottom falls out. In 2017-18 at least the team was coming off their most memorable run in 20+ years. This current run had better regular season results over a 3-4 year stretch but fans are not going to be clamoring for 2021-23 nostalgia any time soon. If Vlad can’t be extended, then make the damn trade and move forward.
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I would have taken Torres at 1/15 over Gimenez at 5/100 (close to it) but obviously this FO has a specific skillset that they like, and Torres isn’t it. I think Bregman might be a real possibility now. I don’t see many other options for him unless the Tigers are still on the market for a 3B, which they might be.
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With the Jays needing a DH, this was exactly the type of move they should have been making. Either he still sucks or you catch lightning in a bottle, but either way it's no risk. Maybe they are saving that for Moncada.
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Vlad is only 25 and is already one of the worst baserunners and defensive players in the league. If he had Soto's offensive track record then it would have been more justifiable, but he doesn't, and $400-500M for just his bat without that track record is incredibly risky. I can understand the hesitation. Unfortunately this FO has been awful with player development. If they had prospects ready to come up and compensate for losing Vlad then it would have been easier to cut bait. On top of that they don't want to trade him, either because of ownership or because of their own agenda to maximize 2025 wins for job security (probably both), so they won't even sell high in a trade.
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)
glory replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
If you thought the Jays under Ash and JP had more hope than a team that was seen (in hindsight wrongly) to be a possible World Series contender during this run (2022 in particular), then we will have to agree to disagree. Actual results favor Atkins, and pre-season hype (even though they never lived up to it) goes to Atkins, too. I mean, I'm not going to tell you that you were wrong to feel more hopeful during Ash/JP's time, if that's how you felt then that's fine, but objectively, the results don't match that feeling. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)
glory replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I want Shatkins gone so it pains me to have to defend them here, but romanticizing Gord Ash and JP Ricciardi’s time, especially in contrast to 2020-24, is insane. The 2021 team won 91 games and finished 4th place in their own division. The 2022 team had the 3rd best record in the AL. The 2023 was the most frustrating offensive performance I’ve seen on a good team and they still won 89 games in a season where 14 MLB players alone had a higher WAR than Vlad and Bo combined. Yes they had to spend to compensate for their weaknesses, but whatever. They weren’t trading a borderline HOF with cash attached for Robert Person, or letting what should have been a franchise cornerstone go and reallocating that money to Erik Hanson, or replacing one of the greatest hitters in franchise history with the corpse of Corey Koskie. They’ve by all accounts been in on major free agents, and this FO is the only one that has ever gotten Rogers to spend like they should be spending. I get wanting Shatkins gone, I’m in the same boat, they have overstayed their welcome and change is needed, but longing for the days of Ash and JP is a step too far. -
Yeah realistically if they acquired Naylor then they likely had to DH one of them regularly, or put Vlad at 3B full time, and they probably didn’t want to do either of those things. Naylor is more realistic as Vlad’s replacement next year if he leaves. The Jays are either legitimately in on Burnes or are waiting out the Teo/Tony markets because as more backup options start going elsewhere it leaves them in a very difficult spot.
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I have no idea who the FO is going to end up getting, which is kinda terrifying after last winter. Players are signing/getting traded elsewhere, and the logical options are starting to shrink.
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Yeah I don't see a clear path for Bregman at this point. Houston always seemed like his most likely spot. Cross them off. The Yankees won't be spending that much on him. The Cubs just dumped Bellinger's contract likely to save money for a Tucker extension so I don't think they would be in. Maybe Boston? Detroit? I think whoever signs Bregman will regret it, so I hope it's not the Jays, but it's possible his market craters pretty quickly (if it hasn't already).
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Arenado was never going to waive his NTC to play in Toronto, but kinda surprised he said no to the Astros. He must have only a few specific teams in mind. I think it's becoming increasingly likely that the Jays 3B next season is going to come internally (Clement, Barger, Orelvis, Vlad occasionally). Maybe they do a buy low deal with Moncada but otherwise I don't see many options. The only Gimenez type of deal (where there's an overpaid 3B that another team would be looking to dump) that I can think of is Ke'Bryan Hayes, which fits Atkins' MO (controllable, great defense, s***** offense) but I'm assuming even Atkins would draw a line on how many defense-first players he can have at a time.
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I’m wondering what Teo’s market actually is at this point. The Yankees are likely out on him, and the Dodgers don’t need him. You would think that opens things up for the Jays but Atkins has spent 2 years loading up on defense and guys who don’t strike out, which Teo is basically the opposite of (and he was the first player traded post-2022 to usher in this new and exciting run prevention model they’ve had since). I’d actually be somewhat surprised if he signs with the Jays factoring all that in, but maybe Atkins realizes he has all the defense he can get and now needs to bend a bit to add power.
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)
glory replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Next Jays pickup has to be Naylor because the Guardians might be the only team to pity Atkins enough to actually deal with him. -
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Obviously Bo is a better player than Torres (assuming he's healthy) but if you can get decent value for Bo in a trade, move Gimenez to SS, and then sign Torres on a short term deal for 2B, then that would be a tidy retool type of move. Largely depends on what the return for Bichette would be.
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It certainly appears that way. The last big FA (top 10 FA in the class) they signed was Gausman and that was 3 years ago when Vlad/Bo had 4 years of control left and the team was coming off 91 wins. Now the only carrot they can dangle at FA's is money, but big time FA's (ex. Burnes) will be able to get money anywhere so it probably isn't that big of a difference maker given the position the Jays are in. Trades, more specifically absorbing salary that another team wants to dump, might be their best way of getting a difference making talent.
