glory

Yeah this seems like way more of an accomplishment for Shatkins than their other pursuits. Sasaki has no reason to keep the Jays as a finalist as this only involves international pool money so there’s no such thing as using other teams for leverage. The Jays impressed him somehow. I doubt they impressed him enough to not sign with the Dodgers but whatever. Unfortunately this will just add to the “Jays always the bridesmaid” internet narrative but in this case it’s not deserved. To be as bad as they’ve been with pitching development the last decade and still impress a pitcher who (supposedly) cares about a team’s ability to develop talent is pretty impressive.

The one positive here is that Sasaki doesn't need to keep teams in the hunt for leverage. It's international bonus money. The difference in money is going to be irrelevant. So the Jays must have impressed him at least a little bit to be a finalist. I know fans rag on the Jays for coming close on top FAs but the fact that they keep getting to this point is at least more fun (if not gut wrenching depending on what your expectations are) than what we've been accustomed to in previous years. With that said, if he doesn't choose Toronto then I hope he goes to the Padres, but I think we all know what the end result is going to be.

It’s nice to be in the conversation, but yeah this ain’t happening.

Yeah I don’t think Shapiro is going to give out a short team, multiple opt out contract, but if he does, then I think Bregman is the one to target with that. Assuming he decides to go that route. A one trick pony like Santander getting opt outs is a bad idea. Bregman at least has 4 WAR potential so if you get that for one year and he leaves, then you can probably live with that. A short term deal, even if Bregman doesn’t opt out in that scenario, mitigates a lot of the decline risk as well.

It depends on what type of short term deals they are asking for. If it's a "Boras special" where it's like a 3 year deal with multiple opt outs, then I doubt the Jays would have interest there. Shapiro was pretty vocal years ago about hating player options, and while he bent and gave one to Berrios, I don't think it's something he is going to do often. If it's a straight 3 year deal at a higher AAV with no opt outs, then that's something that makes sense (Santander and/or Flaherty). I don't think Santander is going to happen from the looks of it.

Someone in the Jays media recently brought up that the Jays never leak anything (the agents do), and even this Hoffman signing came out of no where. Santander's been linked to the Jays for weeks, if not longer, which seems unusual for them. Not many options aside from Tony for what the Jays need (power bat) so could be the media trying to piece two and two together. We will see if that materializes. Atkins usually doesn't spend on bats. Springer is the rare exception (and I guess Gimenez now, but that was a trade). He typically spends a lot on pitching. But yeah now that the CBT penalties have been reset, they need to spend a lot. They could always shed payroll at the deadline to get under if things go south.

They just spent $18.5M on Hoffman and Garcia when SN media like Davidi said they only had $20-25M to spend earlier in the off-season. That's not factoring Gimenez's contract which they absorbed, in addition to Sandlin's arbitration number. Unless the Jays are really, really bullish on Yariel as a SP (they don't appear to be), then I think they are going to have the highest payroll in franchise history this season because they need at least 1 bat (probably 2) and a starter, and they won't be able to do that with $10-20M left to spend. Even an innings eating average dude like Quintana is going to get about $10M or more. Maybe they plan to shop in the bargain bin for the rest of their needs, but I can't imagine a team on a tight budget is spending $33M on a reliever when they need a lot more than that.

I refuse to acknowledge that Trollosi was right about something, Robert Murray had it first. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

What's interesting is that Vlad took a lower than projected 2025 salary, so if by some chance they actually do agree to an extension, then the extension doesn't reflect in the CBT calculation until 2026. I mean it's only like a $1-2M savings for CBT purposes, but still a benefit when it comes to adding to the 2025 team. Vlad could have easily haggled over that amount and gone to arbitration (and probably won) but he settled for less. Whether that's a sign of an extension being possible or whether Vlad just wanted to avoid arbitration again knowing he'll get his money next year regardless is the question.

Yeah this isn’t happening. Maybe Atkins is waiting until this is resolved before he does anything else, but don’t Yu Darvish yourself here. He’s going to the Dodgers.

Wouldn’t surprise me if Kirk is extended. The catching depth within the organization is horrendous.

Arbitration numbers are slowly coming in. So far: Pop - $900k Varsho - $8.2M

Mariners have claimed Danner. They do well with relievers so wouldn't surprise me if this one ends up looking bad.

In addition to this, the latest from Shi Davidi: "To wit, they’re staying in the game on Anthony Santander, although they’re probably not the favourite to land the switch-hitting outfielder right now. They remain engaged on Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, but are believed to be on the periphery on those fronts, and the same may hold true on Tanner Scott. The Blue Jays are also said to be actively working the trade market, which is where the centre-piece of their winter work thus far – Gimenez – came from." At this point I'm expecting the next time there is a significant Jays transaction (which will feel like a year from now by the time it happens), it will be a name no one was discussing.

There isn’t much left in free agency, especially if the Jays are having trouble attracting FAs, but this would be a pretty blah signing.

Yeah I think the farm system talk is a bit excessive. Hypothetically, if the Jays had a top 5 system in baseball, does Burnes sign here? No. He specifically wanted Arizona. Does Soto sign here? No, the Jays were not outbidding Steve Cohen. Does Teo sign here? No, he wanted to stay in LA, and realistically, the Jays probably didn't have much interest there either given that they found him expendable two years ago. The farm system is not preventing the Jays from signing players. Vlad only being around for 1 more year is probably a far bigger concern with free agents who likely don't want to spend their last few good seasons on a team with Andres Gimenez as the star player, but beyond that, it's money, years, and location. The order of those 3 things varies based on the player, but that's what it will come down to. The quality of the player also makes a difference. Burnes knew he could get money anywhere. Santander being a one dimensional player just turning 30 is far more likely to sign with the Jays due to lack of other options. Ultimately the Jays should be doing a better job with player development, and they haven't. I don't think that's the reason players are going elsewhere, though. If they extend Vlad today, with absolutely no change to their farm system quality, then I'm guessing they become at least a bit more desirable.

If he has an option left then it's a no brainer. He's a reclamation project so bring him on board, try to make whatever adjustments possible in order to maximize his bat, and see what he has. If it fails, it fails, but I legit cannot name a single catcher in the org aside from Kirk and Heineman. If there's any position they need to take these types of gambles, it's probably catcher.

Charlie Morton to the O’s on a one year deal, contract is 1/15 per Passan.

Diego Cartaya was DFA by the Dodgers. His numbers have tanked the last two seasons but he’s a former top prospect and would probably be the 2nd best catcher in the org if he came here (sadly), so might be worth a shot to see if something clicks with him. A team that has trouble drafting and developing needs to get lucky,

If that's true then the Jays should hold firm at 4/82. I don't think any team is topping 4 years, and if Santander thinks he can get a similar or higher AAV elsewhere, then so be it. This is one of the rare times where the Jays sticking to their internal evaluations and not going over might actually work. Unless I'm underestimating Tony's market, I don't see him as a 5 year contract type of FA in today's game. Sometimes you have to be willing to swallow an extra year to get the player but make sure the player is worth it. I don't think Santander qualifies. Ryu was at least a top of the rotation SP and Springer a CF, so it was a bit more justifiable even though there was risk of bad/dead money towards the end.

Yeah Bo's offensive profile is not one I'd want to trust on a long-term deal. I suspect he would have already been traded if he wasn't coming off such a down year in 2024. They have his replacement locked up, and about 100 2B as depth. I think this is a one and done with him. Vlad is the one they have to make the decision on. Bo's likely one foot out the door already. Have to hope money is a great motivator here.

Vlad in his early to mid 20's is already a bad defensive 1B and either the worst baserunner in baseball or very close to it. That typically doesn't get better with age, and after he gets his big contract, can you be sure that motivation is not going to be an issue? I have no doubt that Vlad's bat has the potential to be special for many more years but if he wants to be one of the highest paid players in the game and feels his value is close to Soto's, then the Jays have a very tough decision to make. Either give him that money and live with the risk involved, or move on. If Vlad was a legit 3B, or OF, or any position with real value, and wasn't a complete sink hole on the bases then the case for a record deal would be a little bit better, but a bad defensive/baserunning 1B/DH for that term and dollar amount is scary.

Vlad was quoted as saying he thinks he’s the best hitter in baseball or something to that effect during the 2024 season. If Soto got $800M, then no chance Vlad is settling for half of that, especially if he thinks he can have another elite season in 2025 and enter the market next winter with both NY teams and Boston needing/wanting him. I don’t think there is a number that Shapiro will be comfortable with. Rogers is a different story but they’ve been pretty hands off with baseball stuff under Shapiro. Trading Vlad if he can’t be extended and using that money to sign Alonso (even though he wouldn’t be my first choice) would be the first sign of a real plan by this regime in at least 12 months. I’ve said before you don’t have to rebuild but you do have to maximize assets that are not long term pieces. They did that with Teo, whether you agree or disagree with that trade. They didn’t view him as a long term piece and traded him for the best deal they could get and used the saved money to replace him. That should be done here if the two sides are that far off.