glory

You forgot the most credible one:

Yeah I'm guessing that's the plan on the Jays end. Try for Alonso and pivot to Profar if that fails. There really isn't anyone else in the the FA market. I don't see much talk of Alonso to the Jays on X/Twitter aside from some very questionable accounts posting about it, so I don't think anyone should be getting their hopes up here (yet).

Wouldn't surprise me if Boras is using the Jays to get the Mets to increase their offer. A pillow contract for Alonso makes way too much sense for the Mets, so I'd be somewhat surprised if the Jays sign him, unless the Mets have tapped out completely.

In Shi Davidi's latest article he mentions that Straw's money does not count towards the CBT payroll, which I'm assuming is due to him not being on the 40 man roster. Obviously he still counts towards the actual payroll but not being included in the CBT is at least a partial positive to a s***** move. Hopefully that means they have no incentive or interest in actually using him. Seems like the Alonso/Scherzer package deal idea is picking up some steam on social media. Both Robert Murray and BNS have apparently thrown that possibility out there. It's not the ideal positional fit, but a Vlad-Taters-Polar Bear middle of the lineup is an exciting power combination which we haven't seen in a few years. Atkins reverting back to 2020-22 Ross is a welcomed change.

Alonso has no market (or a very, very limited one). That's likely why the Jays are allegedly showing interest even after signing Santander. They don't necessarily need another 1B/DH given the current roster, but if his price becomes more reasonable due to lack of interest, then you can rationalize it making sense for a team that could still use more power in the lineup. Would Shatkins do a high AAV short term deal with an opt out after year 1 for a 1B/DH attached to a QO? That's where I don't really see it happening, but a FO trying to win in 2025 might be open to do things that they normally wouldn't do.

Bregman's market seems to involve more teams, and he's not looking for a pillow contract from the sounds of it. Probably just asking for too much in general. He's probably the best positional fit for the Jays but will almost certainly involve the most years and dollars, and there's real "Years 3-6 George Springer" potential with whatever deal he signs. Alonso's market is probably the Mets and the Jays. I don't see any other obvious fit. On a pillow contract he makes way more sense for the Mets since they won't lose a comp pick + international money to get him like the Jays would. Have no clue on Profar's market. Recent report had the Jays and Astros involved. Profar willingly signed with the Rockies at one point so I don't think he gives a damn where he goes, it will be about the contract.

No team is going to pay Profar like 3-4 WAR player, so if 2024 was a late career breakout, then I agree there is very real surplus value potential there. Still pretty risky though. He could easily slither back to something closer to replacement level given his history. If the deal is something like 3/36 or 3/40, then it might be worth the gamble either way depending on the alternatives.

If you believe Profar's 2024 is somewhat sustainable, then I think he's a clear upgrade, but with his track record that's a huge risk. His Statcast page for 2024 looks great though, no sign of a mirage. Whether he can keep that going in 2025-beyond is the question, and that's a legitimate risk. I tend to agree that the team is trying for one of Alonso or Bregman, probably more so Alonso since his deal should be shorter. They just have to be prepared for a Bellinger/Hoskins/Montgomery situation where Alonso doesn't opt out after the season because no team would give him more than what the Jays gave him. A Vladdy extension + Alonso opting out after 2025 because he kicked ass would be the obvious best case in that scenario.

Yeah Bregman doesn't want a short-term pillow deal apparently, so as much as I think he will be an albatross by the end of whatever deal he signs, he still probably makes the most sense if you're going to lose a draft pick for it. Alonso will almost certainly want an opt out after year 1 so you have to weigh that into the equation. I'd probably just overpay Scherzer for a year before I give up a pick for Pivetta.

Utility IF. I think they end up getting a 3B somehow, even if it's Moncada.

Boras is going to want an opt out after year 1 unless Pete gets the long term contract he/Boras want. Shapiro was against player options years ago, but seems like he's open to them as long as he gets 3+ years out of it (Berrios, Santander). Now that I think about it, maybe Alonso isn't all that likely for that reason, but Ross has lost his mind now so maybe he's going all in.

Vlad isn't going to want to DH much in his walk year, and if Alonso's deal has any sort of short term opt out, then he probably wouldn't either. Ideally you split them between 1B/DH and have a competent defender at 3B, but not sure that's feasible if you want to do right by the players. Of course if the Jays end up giving Polar Bear a 5 year deal or something with no opt outs, then all bets are off.

Gotta add wins where you can. Bregman would make more sense positionally but Alonso should be a much shorter contract and adds more of what the Jays need on offense (not so much on defense). Ultimately, they just need to add one more impact guy. It sucks they are in a position where they have to spend obsessively to improve, but it is what it is. You don't want to rebuild then pay to add wins.

IKF was coming off a 79 wRC+ season and got $15M guaranteed from Atkins. The Jays just absorbed nearly $100M of Gimenez's contract coming off an 83 wRC+ season. I think the simple explanation is that Atkins wanted extra draft $ and is the only GM in the sport that would view Straw as an asset. Like, if the Jays signed MAT to 2/11, would anyone have been surprised? This is basically that.

Atkins will sign Alonso, and then announce that the team is moving Vlad to 3B right as they are discussing his contract extension. 4D chess.

Sasaki and the Guardians made Atkins snap.

Scott Mitchell (I think?) suggested that Teo was asking for something like 5/120 before they traded him. Not sure where the Jays valued him at the time, but knowing Atkins' recent fetish for players with low K%'s and lineup balance, he probably prefers Tony as this contract than whatever they could have agreed to with Teo.

Yeah agreed with others. Five years is a lot, but the AAV + deferrals makes it more reasonable given the market, especially if the latter allows them to keep spending.

So sounds like Santander can opt out after year 4, which the Jays can void by adding a 6th year. That’s player friendly so hopefully the AAV isn’t too high. You had to know the Jays would make a desperation move after the Roki stuff.

Not surprising. Hopefully the terms are reasonable. Don’t think they will be after the public Sasaki embarrassment but hopefully I’m wrong.

Signing guys too early has definitely been an issue, dating back to signing Morales and Pearce during (I think) league CBA negotiations and then seeing the market crater immediately after, to what we saw last season. On the flip side Atkins did wait out the Ryu and post pandemic market which worked out (Springer, Semien), and he did well with Gausman and Bassitt. I actually think he’s been fine this winter too, at least until flushing $11M into the nearest toilet with Straw. Ultimately it’s very possible he could end up with at least 1 of Santander, Alonso, Bregman, etc, on a favorable deal, and that’s because he didn’t pounce early on inferior options like he has in the past. As long as the Straw contract doesn’t prevent other moves, then there’s still some potential to come out of the winter positively, but they’ll have to spend to do it. One of my least favorite recent seasons was 2018 when you knew the front office wanted to rebuild but wouldn’t pull the trigger, so they put lipstick on a pig (Granderson, Grichuk, Solarte, etc), and then proceeded to sell low on everyone at the deadline that year because they waited too long. That’s why at this point I want them to pick a direction. If they want to go for it, then go for it. The next GM will have to clean up the mess, but it’s going to be a mess regardless. Just don’t 2018 this season and waste Vlad’s trade value too.

I agree with trying for a Santander/Alonso (or one of them + Bregman) combo at this point. It's not the smart baseball decision based on where the team is, but we are WAY past that at this point. They don't want to rebuild even when now is the perfect time to start it, and apparently they have no interest in trying a quick retool (ex. trading Vlad and then signing Alonso to replace him, etc). So the alternative has to be going all in for 2025. The issue is trying to fit all that plus a SP add on their payroll but again if you can afford to take Straw's contract hoping to win the lottery with it then you probably aren't counting pennies. Figure it out. If Rogers cares more about actual payroll than CBT payroll, then backloading makes more sense than front loading. Either way, you sign Santander and Alonso, and hope for at least 2025 you are some version of the 2022-24 Phillies.

They are willing to pay Myles Straw $11M for the next 2 years. At this point just run up a payroll of $280M or something and try to buy your way into a playoff spot. Alonso, Santander, Flaherty, Profar, whoever. No sense hoping for a rebuild as it won't happen, and they can't get a lottery pick in 2026 anyway. It is what it is.