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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    BV's minor league numbers aren't that good so unless he's figured something out, it's possible this is his peak value. I think moving him for a CF would be a great use of assets since Kirk is locked up for a while. There's nothing wrong with having a solid/cheap backup catcher either, so only trade him if you get a good return.
  2. glory
    John Schneider saw a potential comeback win coming, and he said not on my watch. True tank commander.
  3. glory
    If the Jays sweep this series then they'd be 3 back of Boston for the WC. Do they still sell in that scenario? I would think common sense would still prevail (this team isn't good) but the GB column would make the optics of selling harder to justify (and this org cares way too much about optics).
  4. glory
    If the rest of the lineup was good then Kwan in CF for a year would be fine, but the rest of the lineup stinks, so he doesn't do enough for me given his Arb3 price tag and the fact that he only comes with one year of control. It's definitely something I could see Atkins doing though if no CF is acquired beforehand. I'd rather just stick Lukes in CF for a year then trade for Kwan. Hopefully it doesn't come to that. Straw's option is for $8M. Picking that option up is a fireable offense.
  5. glory
    Mentally I’m already prepared for Kwan in CF next season when the Guardians want to shed $10M in the off season, and Atkins gets to do something he loves (save the Guardians money). But I hope they acquire a controllable CF option at the deadline. Not sure which one is even available but someone who can cover CF and has upside with the bat would be nice. I hope this team isn’t insane enough to pick up Straw’s option. He’s right back to pre 2025 performance as one could have expected. He stinks. Picking up that option due to lack of other options is loser mentality.
  6. glory
    Yup, unless Atkins trades a lot of players at the deadline to get under the tax thresholds, and that's not happening. So have to hope for a top 6 pick. I'm sure the Jays will get a great pick given our history of things always working out nicely.
  7. glory
    Is this one of those games where they have to use Varland regardless of the score because he hasn’t pitched in 3 days, even though there’s an afternoon game tomorrow and no off day until next Thursday?
  8. glory
    Just had a chance to look at this, and the Gausman/Cubs one is the most Ross Atkins trade I've ever seen suggested. Could definitely see something like that happening. I doubt the Phillies are trading Crawford for that package, though I do think the Phillies might make a good trading partner. They could use a CF, middle relief help, and and a back end SP. The Jays and the Phils could be a match somewhere.
  9. glory
    Well, i have a suspicion that IKF was traded in 2024 with the luxury tax penalties in mind (trying to avoid repeater penalties...which they did), so maybe there's some hope that Atkins will sell a little bit more than I expect. I wouldn't bet on it, but if that forces him to be a bit more creative at the deadline, then I'm all for it. I'm just saying we have 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2024 with Ross as a seller. He's typically not hard to predict based on that track record, but would love to be proven wrong.
  10. glory
    We have a decade of history on Ross Atkins to know how he's going to approach this trade deadline. As a seller, he very rarely sells high on a controllable player. We're talking Joe Biagini, Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna during a DV suspension, Nate Pearson after he had 'bust' tattooed on his forehead, etc, as the controllable players Atkins has moved at the deadline when selling. I guess trading IKF in 2024 is the one exception (selling high). History tells us that Atkins will want to contend next season, and swapping out the impending FA's for the Pinango's and Schreck's of the world, followed by signing free agents in the winter will be the strategy. I think at most we might see a Hoffman trade (seems like a change of scenery candidate given how last season ended and losing the closer role this year), but beyond that I'd be shocked if anyone controllable is moved. I guess Sanchez too, I forget he even exists, but might be more of a salary dump attempt than a trade to get any value.
  11. glory
    Yeah, the same lineup with a one armed Santander who has missed essentially two straight seasons in his 30's replacing Springer isn't going to make a dent even with internal improvement. Vlad would have to be a 5 WAR player again, and he's done that exactly twice in his career. Signing Arozarena or Suzuki (both 32 next season) would improve the team but seems pretty risky given their age. Not many other real options in free agency. They'd also need rotation help with Cease, Yesavage, and Ponce coming off a lost season being their only SP's.
  12. glory
    Kinda wish the lockout happened after Game 7 so we could have dreamed about the 2026 team rather than actually seen them play.
  13. glory
    Top 5 in position player WAR being Okamoto, Valenzuela, Gimenez, Clement, and Lukes is objectively hilarious (in a sad way). A rookie from Japan seeing big league pitching for the first time, a backup catcher they got in return for Will Wagner, one of the worst hitting regulars in the league, and two journeymen on 2 WAR projections. This team doesn’t need to scorch earth but they need to be very open to trading pieces at the deadline. Not just the impending FAs.
  14. glory
    The holdovers from last year's offense are Gimenez, Clement, Lukes, Varsho, Vlad, Kirk, Springer, Barger, Heineman, Schneider, and Straw. They have a combined WAR this season of 5.8 for $100M in 2026 payroll. If you want to count Santander who hasn't played then the payroll jumps even further. Thankfully Kyle Tucker and his invisible chin chose the Dodgers otherwise it would have been ten times worse. Okamoto leads the team in WAR, wRC+, and has more than double the amount of home runs as the 2nd leading HR hitter on the team. He and Valenzuela have been the lone bright spots.
  15. glory
    No issues with acquiring Clarke (defense is elite, dude had a 1.3 WAR in 2025 in 159 PA due to his defense/base running alone), and CF is a very difficult position to fill in general, but it would be tough to have him and Gimenez both in the lineup at the same time, and Clarke's bat is also not good. He'd be more of a fit in Straw's current role. Kinda hoping there is a bad contract swap with Gimenez available somewhere. Get rid of some of the s***** hitters on the roster.
  16. glory
    Cruz and Vladdy on the same team would be "rip your hair out" levels of frustrating at times, but the Jays need that type of bat in the lineup. With his arm maybe see how he does in RF. There will still be stupid mistakes on defense, but the arm would play nicely there.
  17. glory
    I’m curious how teams are going to view controllable pieces at the deadline with the upcoming lockout. Someone locked up through 2027 (Hoffman for example) may not have the same amount of value if teams believe a season will either not happen or be significantly condensed. Maybe rentals may have a bit more value with the uncertainty of the sport beyond 2026. I guess we will see based on the activity. I doubt the Jays have any intention of moving anyone with control beyond 2026 anyway given how they usually operate, unless Rogers gives them a mandate to get under a tax threshold. Even with the uncertainty of what the CBA will look like next year, being a CBT payor for what looks like it will be a last place team wouldn’t be ideal.
  18. glory
    Agreed about trading Clement (peak value, 31 next season, defense/sprint speed have slipped, 2 years of not-cheap-anymore arb left) but there's no chance in hell the Jays trade him. Based on this FO's history, they'll probably trade Gausman, Varsho, Bieber, and maybe Springer (10/5 guy and he's a DH that stinks this season so may not be much out there). Beyond that I'd be shocked if anyone else is moved unless there's a mandate to get under a CBT threshold or something. In which case maybe you see Hoffman, Sanchez, etc, moved.
  19. glory
    This looks like it will be the 2nd bad season in 3 years, with the "should have been World Series title" season sandwiched in between. Also keep in mind that 2023 was as good as it was entirely because was completely unsustainable pitcher health and performance, with the offense for much of the season looking pretty similar to 2024/2026. It looks like 2025 is the clear outlier here. That doesn't mean things can't be turned around next season, but they'll need to put some work in, starting with selling at the deadline (if that wasn't clear already, it's getting more clear everyday).
  20. glory
    Valenzuela had the highest wRC+ and WAR on the team when Kirk came back. I believe last night was the first time JS even tried to have both catchers in the lineup. JS absolutely loves veterans though, so that's probably part of the equation.
  21. glory
    IKF: 1.1 WAR, 97 wRC+ Vlad: 1.0 WAR, 98 wRC+ Yeah, this season ain’t it. The Baseball Gods gave us 2025 and we blew it, now they are taking it all back. Sell and pivot to 2027 (or whenever the players and owners agree to have a season).
  22. glory
    Finally Valenzuela at DH. Too bad it's after he cooled off (possibly due to lack of consistent PA's), but better late than never, I guess.
  23. glory
    Can Clase or Lukes play an average CF? Probably not, but if they can, then I'd much rather go that route in 2027 than give Varsho big money. The Jays might be the only team who views Straw as a $8M player, so they'll certainly pick up his option and he can back either of those two up. I'm not sure there is an obvious CF answer if Varsho leaves but that doesn't mean you make a bad decision. All of this might be moot anyway since the CBA could be completely different by the time Varsho can sign anywhere.
  24. glory
    JS got to use 11 pitchers yesterday. That was his version of euphoria.
  25. glory
    Trading for an outfielder with 4 years of control left, whose most attractive skill is elite CF defense, and putting him in LF for half of those years of control was borderline insane. I guess you could look past it in 2023 since KK was signed before the trade, so there was no way of them knowing they'd have Varsho before signing KK, but that wasn't the case in 2024 when they did the same damn thing again. If the Jays are out of it, then trade Varsho. If they are still in it, then hold on to him and let him sign an albatross contract with someone else. I want no part of this dude in his 30's on a long term deal. They got the best remaining years out of him (defensively and on the bases). Move on. In hindsight, I think the trade was more than justifiable. They made the playoffs in 2 of his first 3 years of control, and should have a ring. You make that move again in a second, except you actually play him in CF.
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