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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    I'd be fine with signing Matz if the deal is reasonable, but I agree that he's more of a small fish. There's going to be a borderline non tender on some team coming off a down year that the Jays could trade for like they did with Matz last season, or a pitcher looking for a pillow contract in free agency. I think I'd rather go that route for the back end of the rotation and go big on the other SP acquisition. But if Matz at ~$12m AAV doesn't prevent future moves, then it certainly wouldn't hurt to add more rotation depth. That's a big org weakness right now.
  2. glory
    Yeah the reason he signed for what he did was because he was hurt, and the Jays signed him anyway on the chance he would remain healthy. I mean, I guess it had high reward and the cost was minor, but if his physicals look like s*** to the point where other teams are backing off, then the risk is clearly much higher than any reward. Hopefully this year when Atkins buys low on relievers it will be RP's coming off down years, and not RP's who can't pass physicals. Relievers are volatile enough as it is. If you know one of them is hurt before they put pen to paper, then it's probably not the best risk to take.
  3. glory
    I think he'll get it from the Tigers based on rumors of their interest in him. They apparently want to make a big splash this winter.
  4. glory
    Very surprised that Samad Taylor was not protected.
  5. glory
    I still expect Ray to sign elsewhere. Some team is going to bet on 2021 being close to the new norm for him, and I'd rather it be someone else. My guess is Atkins goes after one bigger SP either in free agency or trade, and then gets a 2nd SP who is more of a project. It was mentioned in another thread, but Kikuchi seems like someone Atkins would give to Pete Walker to see if he can turn it into something (LHP, throws 95, misses bats at a decent clip). He's more in the project category. The bigger fish is harder to predict, but there are still a bunch of options in free agency, and also short term options in trades (A's SP's, Castillo/S.Gray, Marlins SP's, etc).
  6. glory
    Only 6 pitchers in MLB history have gotten contracts for $200m or more. Cole: $324m Strasburg: $245m Price: $217m Kershaw: $215m Scherzer: $210m Greinke: $206m I like Berrios as a pitcher, but I don't think there was a chance he was going to get $200m as a FA after 2022, unless his 2022 season was suddenly bonafide ace quality.
  7. glory
    I don't think he would have gotten $200 million offers in free agency. He's a very good starter, but even someone similar to him like Stroman is probably not coming close to that figure. If you assume his FA years were essentially signed at 6/120, then I think he left some money on the table by taking the extension, but not $200m.
  8. glory
    Don't do it, Wander.
  9. glory
    Could definitely see Atkins going after Kikuchi.
  10. glory
    I have no interest in bringing Ray back on a monster deal either. He was great in 2021, but let someone else overpay for him. There’s just too much potential volatility with his performance. If he loses a tick on his FB or suddenly command disappears again and who knows. I’d argue Stroman would be the better long term investment, but I know that’s not happening in a million years. Either way, congrats to Ray. Amazing turnaround from 2020. Hope him and Semien get paid in free agency. They bet on themselves and earned this payday.
  11. glory
    Apparently the player option is also for $25m, so worst case he gets 2/50. I can see why he stayed with the Astros.
  12. glory
    I would think the Jays would have to significantly beat the other offers (not just come close) for Verlander to choose Toronto over New York or Boston. Probably would have to be something like 2/50 guaranteed. I would still be open to something like that given the short term nature of the signing, and Verlander probably still has some juice left, though I have no doubt he was using spider tack in Houston so there will be some drop off even without factoring age/TJS. I guess it depends on what others are offering.
  13. glory
    I would have been fine if the Jays gave him that deal. I like it for the Angels. He was always going to take a one year deal because his upside is huge and he can cash out big time next season. About time the Angels made a good pitching move, even if it’s only for one year.
  14. glory
    The extension using MLBTR's arb projection is essentially ~6/130 (he had a $10.9m arb projection). That's around what I thought it would take to get him extended, give or take. Edit: Davidi saying it's 7/131, so 6/120 as the extension using the above example. Seems fair for a SP like him who had to be convinced to forgo free agency. Jays really couldn't afford to lose him after 2022. It had to get done.
  15. glory
    Cleveland seems to like Kirk a lot. Apparently asked for him in return for Kluber a couple of years ago, and there was a report in SI that said "the Blue Jays reportedly rejected a deadline ask for Ramírez that built a package around Alejandro Kirk and an assortment of top prospects and major league players." I don't think the Jays give up Moreno regardless, but if that report is true, then my guess is they could probably make something work with Kirk instead. Who they have to add in addition to him is the question.
  16. glory
    Yeah I think they trade Kirk before they move Moreno to 3B.
  17. glory
    On one hand, a lockout sucks and the next 2-3 months without any baseball news would suck. On the other hand, the thought of February having a month long flurry of big signings/trades, followed by spring training, and then right after that the regular season is pretty interesting. The NBA off season is basically one week of excitement followed by months of down time. Baseball winters are big moves spaced out over 4-5 months so at times it can seem boring as hell. A February-March stampede of moves followed by the regular season immediately after that would be crazy.
  18. glory
    Agreed. A young SP with history of shoulder issues, even if it hasn't lead to a major surgery, is a huge red flag. I wouldn't mind if the Jays acquired him but I'd be careful not to give up too much.
  19. glory
    This free agent market has the chance to be more exciting than any in recent years, especially with a lot more teams than usual looking to spend. Baseball winters tend to be a slog to get through but this one has to the potential to be really good. Hope they agree to something by the deadline. I would imagine they'll agree to something by February to avoid any missed games, but still would suck to lose 2+ months with so many big names available.
  20. glory
    My guess is that Moreno to 3B is just a cover in case they can't get anyone decent and/or they don't end up trading Kirk. Short/long term, the team is probably better off with Kirk/Jansen at catcher and Moreno at 3B, rather than something like Seager/Escobar at 3B and Moreno at catcher. If Moreno is as great an offensive talent as publications are now projecting, then he needs to be playing 150+ games a year with less wear and tear on his body. Even if by some chance the Jays end up trading Kirk in a package for Ramirez, I'd probably move Moreno to 2B in that scenario, put Biggio as the utility IF, and roll with Jansen/Reese/AAA depth at catcher.
  21. glory
    The Rockies didn't trade their impending FA's (in one of the strongest seller's markets in a long time) because they had the QO to offer, and then let Gray go without offering him one. That's definitely the most Rockies thing to do. As far as Syndergaard, he hasn't pitched in 2 years (except for a couple of innings in Sept this year). I don't see anyone offering him $100m, and I doubt he even takes anything other than a one year deal since he could bet on himself for a year and enter the market next winter in a much better position to cash out.
  22. glory
    Seeing how the Reds operate, if the Jays took Moustakas, they could probably get Castillo for free.
  23. glory
    Yeah there's no chance Espinal starts the year in AAA. If he's still in the org by the start of 2022, then he's going to be the utility infielder in the big leagues. Players like Smith and Lopez (both on the 40 man) are likely to be the AAA depth in case of injury. Taylor needs to be protected as well, so if he's still on the team, then he'll be in AAA as well.
  24. glory
    Surprising that he turned down 1/13 to become a free agent.
  25. glory
    Agreed about Dusty. Even if he comes back next year, chances are the Astros won’t be as good with Correa likely leaving. This might have been his last real chance.
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