glory

Matz would accept the qualifying offer as soon as it was offered to him, so unless the Jays want him back on a 1/18 type of deal, I don't think they'll offer it to him. Bringing him back on a longer term deal is probably something they'll consider, but they really need to aim higher with the rotation, especially if they are losing Ray. With that said, safe to say the Matz trade with the Mets was a really good one. Bought low, and got good value.

Thank goodness 2019 me did not like this deal. I wouldn't have been able to live with myself if I knew that I showed any type of enthusiasm for this signing at the time.

Yes. Will finish with about a ~3 WAR, currently has a 130 wRC+, and has a great skillset for today's game (doesn't K, high BA/OBP, hits the ball hard at an above average level). As long as he wasn't going to prevent the Jays from signing Semien, he would have been an amazing add. Too bad it didn't happen. Could have opened up a trade for Gurriel as well (who likely had more value coming off 2019-20 than he does now). Oh well.

Dyson has something that Montoyo values more than anything else in a baseball player, and that's service time. He's going to play a lot. With that said, since June 1, Grich has a 68 wRC+ and .250 OBP in 268 plate appearances. Dyson might actually be an improvement at this rate.

5.5 games back with 3 teams to pass and 33 games to go is a huge long shot. The one positive is that over 50% of their remaining games are against Baltimore and Minnesota, but this team just laid an egg and went 5-9 in a stretch against LAA, Seattle, Washington, and Detroit this past month. Can't assume anything. They'd have go something like 14-3 against BAL/MIN the rest of the way and then 8-8 against everyone else. That would get them to 90 wins, and even then, there's no guarantee that the other teams (Boston/Oakland specifically) won't surpass that total anyway. As conflicted as I am with this team right now (wanting them to win but also not against a collapse so Buntoyo is gone), would be nice to at least have meaningful games in late September.

This question is actually a lot tougher than it appears to be. I don't see them making either move. The team is going to win around 85-86 games this year, and Shatkins doesn't give me the Masai Ujiri vibe where they'd make a move with a manager after a season like that. I think 70/30 Buntoyo stays unless the team absolutely chokes down the stretch. With Bichette, unless they re-sign Semien, I don't see them spending big bucks on a FA infielder, and no one internally is going to knock Bo off SS. I think he's the answer here, as I don't see them moving him off short. Only way is if they re-sign Semien and there is some sort of mutual agreement that Bo is moving to 2B, but that's a long shot as well.

To be fair, Springer and Semien signed with the Jays in a market where literally only like 2 other teams were willing to spend any money at all. This winter, most MLB teams would have recovered a decent amount of revenue while the Jays were playing in a spring training/minor league facility for 4 months so they were screwed there. The general point is correct, if you overpay then you will get the player more often than not, but in a market where a lot more teams are going to spend in all likelihood, I wouldn’t expect a similar success rate as this past winter.

True, but signing Lindor for that long when there were going to be 5 other legit SS's on the free agent market (Correa, Seager, Story, Semien, Baez) was definitely unnecessary and could be really bad long term. Not Hosmer bad, but really damn bad.

Was a fan of Dyson in the mid 2010’s. Could have racked up nice WAR as a starting CF in his prime (defense and BsR alone, and wouldn’t kill you with the bat) but was used mostly as a 4th OF. He’s clearly beyond washed now but given the amount of service time he’s accrued in his career, Charlie will play him a lot.

Grichuk not only coming through in the clutch but also drawing a walk is astonishing.

Forgot about him. Jays apparently offered 3/40 to him in the winter, which he was smart to turn down. That price is going to be much higher this winter. Curious to see if they like him enough to pay that price. I doubt it, but Atkins has shown he's willing to dive deep in free agency (Springer/Ryu), so who knows.

Looking a bit deeper into the FA SP market: Noah Syndergaard (29) -> probably signing a short term deal to recoup value, maybe if the Jays gave him a huge AAV on a one year deal they'd have a chance Justin Verlander (39) -> not signing here Max Scherzer (37) -> not signing here Clayton Kershaw (34) -> not signing here Eduardo Rodriguez (29) -> Might be the most realistic name no one has talked about, depends on what his ask would be Jon Gray (30) -> Realistic target Marcus Stroman (30) -> No chance Carlos Rodon (29) -> lack of established track record, but probably would be pricey either way Whether Ray is more or less of a risk signing than any of the realistic ones above is anyone's guess. I'm not even going to try to predict pitching health/performance YOY.

Ideally you don't want to sign Semien or Ray for more than four years. That's how many years Vlad and Bo have left on their current years of control, so you don't want to be left paying big money to a declined Springer, plus Semien and Ray past 2025. I don't think either one will get more than 4 years, but Ray is only going to be 30, so a deal that covers 30-34 (a five year deal) for a LH SP coming off the year he's had isn't impossible. I think Semien at 4 years is probably the max he'll get, but at a higher AAV. Honestly, as discussed earlier about selling versus non-selling at the deadline, once the Jays decided to keep both players to make a run, I feel like they might as well try to keep them. Comp picks in the 70's or wherever the hell those picks will fall are not very desirable for a team with a 4 year window, so if they didn't turn those two into assets at the deadline, then offer them both big 4 year deals (along with a big one year offer to Noah, dammit!), hope they take it, and go for it next year. Of course, if MLB implements the soft cap stuff they were talking about then having Springer, Semien, and Ray on FA deals, plus big arb numbers for Vlad and Bo (and possibly an extension for Berrios) would put them at a pretty high number. If you had to choose one to re-sign, I'd probably go with Semien as well (top 10 WAR talent versus SP), but hard to say without knowing how much it will cost.

Nah, he's going to Oakland in a package for Matt Chapman.

Yeah the team definitely got the best case scenario with Semien and Ray. Not sure they can expect that type of success with future one year deals. Taking a quick glimpse at the upcoming FA market, the only FA's who I think could be had for one year deals and possess enough upside to possibly be significant surplus value next season are Syndergaard and maybe Conforto. The Mets would be foolish not to qualify both, so losing picks for one year deals would be risky, but they would be getting picks back for Semien/Ray, so there's a trade off. I don't see any of the top SS's taking one year deals.

A QO is only leverage when the FA has enough warts to cause other teams to pause. Semien is going to be a top 10 WAR player for two consecutive full seasons after this year, and Ray is a LHP having an amazing season at age 29 after a good track record pre-2020. I don't think either one has to worry about a team not wanting to sign them due to the QO (barring a major collapse by one/both players the rest of the way or injury).

Run differential is not a predictive stat, it's a stat that tells you whether a team is over or underachieving based on a specific sample of results. Just because the Jays had a +100 (or whatever it was) RD and a .500 record, it didn't mean they were going to outscore their opponents in a similar fashion the rest of the way. So yes, you can use RD to judge trade deadline strategy, but at the end of the day, if you're 4.5 games back and have to catch 3+ teams and fight off another team right behind you in a cupcake division (Cleveland) in the process, then it's not a cut and dry issue. You can easily justify a pivot in the other direction in that scenario, maybe not full scale, but a quick retool to prepare for 2022 was a very reasonable direction to take. The Rays would have done it even without the financial implications, and that's the team the Jays have to be better than at some point soon. As far as Chapman versus Semien/Ray, I don't see why they are not comparable. Yes, the Yankees are the alpha franchise, so they have that going for them, but Chapman didn't take a discount to sign with them. He took a huge contract, probably the most money he was going to get. That's what it would take to get Semien and Ray back in a few months. Semien was a mercenary. He signed because he wasn't getting $18m on a one year deal from anyone else in the Covid market. He did it to specifically cash out the following season, so whether the Jays traded him in July or kept him all season, I don't see how that changes his outlook. Ray might be a different story since he re-signed after being here a few months, but like Semien, he took a one year deal for a reason. He was coming off a bad year and wanted to rebuild value. He's had a fantastic year. I really don't envision a scenario where he takes fewer years or term to stay with the Jays just because they held on to him at the deadline. As much as he seems to like the org and Walker, if another team gives him the best offer, then that's usually enough to change a FA's mind. Again, I'm not saying the Jays were incompetent for staying the course. They took a chance on something that didn't have the greatest odds of happening because of optics. It is what it is. They also failed to take advantage of a situation where they could have focused on something a little more likely (seriously contending in 2022) by adding pieces to help that team out.

When you're doing your dream job which also happens to be a job you have no business doing at this level, then you tend to have a "just happy to be here" mindset. Not surprising that he's trying to give that same mindset to the players. Kinda wish Donaldson was still here, even with an unmovable contract, just to see how long it would take him to make Charlie cry.

This really wasn't hard to predict 8-10 months ago when the rumors of him being traded heated up, which is why I'm glad the Jays didn't trade for him. He was already trending downwards offensively, and players whose value is driven by defense/speed are not very likely to age gracefully. That contract is already brutal. It will continue to be brutal. I'm sure he'll have some good seasons in the next few years, but the Jose Reyes type of fall off in his early 30's is inevitable.

I don't following MiLB that much, but I think Luciano was a casualty of the 2020 minor league season being wiped out. His development was already cut a bit short due to Rule 5 status where he barely pitched all year in 2019, and then he lost all of 2020. That would have been fine if he wasn't on the 40 man roster, but his option clock had already started and the Jays can't afford to have someone so far away on the 40 man right now. At quick glance, his AA numbers aren't that bad for a 21 year old but not spectacular enough to hold a 40 man roster spot during a competitive window.

2016: Yankees are 4.5 games out of a WC2 spot with 3 teams to catch. They traded Chapman to the Cubs. 2021: Blue Jays are 4.5 games out of a WC2 spot with 3 teams to catch. They traded two of their top prospects for Berrios. On the day the Yankees traded Chapman, they were in the same situation the Jays were in when they traded for Berrios. The most popular franchise in baseball and the 2nd most valuable franchise in sports by far has more to lose from an optics standpoint by selling than the Blue Jays do. Yet, they were still able to re-sign Chapman a few months later. If Ray liked his time in Toronto, likes working with Walker, and gets the best offer from the Jays, then why wouldn't he come back even if he were traded? Also, Semien signed a one year deal precisely to cash out the following season. He didn't sign with Toronto for preference, it was financial. It would be the same if they traded him and tried to sign him back. He's not turning down the best offer because of a trade, nor is he taking a discount for a non-trade. I really don't think much would have changed. True, these guys are human, and maybe they take a trade personally. I'm not saying that's not possible. I just don't think that's the mindset most FA's have, especially two guys who intentionally took pillow contracts to increase their value for the following season.

I don't want to be the Rays either, but I do want to beat the Rays. That becomes a lot less likely in 2022 minus Semien and Ray, only getting comp picks to show for it, expecting the rotation to stay healthy most of the year again, expecting great individual performances again, etc. There is a point where hedging your bets a little bit does make sense, and the Jays didn't do that. The Yankees did it in 2016, and the following year they were one game away from a World Series only getting beat by a team that cheated to beat them. Good teams realize they have a better chance of living to fight another day rather than dying for a hail mary. Maybe the Jays getting a 2nd WC spot was a reasonable expectation at the deadline and not outlandish, and I would agree with that, but some times when you make decisions, you better be right or have to face criticism, and I think this is one of those times for Shatkins. Again, I realize there was no chance in hell the Jays were going to sell any good players off just before coming home for the first time in 2 years, but I think it's fair to say it was a missed opportunity to not take advantage of a seller's market that baseball hasn't seen in at least 5 years, and may not see again with expanded playoffs on the horizon (teams won't sell good young players if getting to the playoffs is easier, but maybe I'm wrong on that).

The issue is, if that was the team's rationale for doing what they did (and it most certainly was), then is that a good thing? The Jays were 2-3 wins away from the World Series in 2015 and 2016, yet by 2018 the fans couldn't have cared any less about the team as the stadium was routinely half empty. A bigger middle finger to the fans was what Shatkins did in 2017-18 by not pulling the trigger on a rebuild sooner (and I blame Rogers more than Shatkins for that). This deadline wasn't near as bad as that, but if the team had moved Semien/Ray and then were leading the division in June 2022, would anyone have looked back and cared that they "flipped the fans/players the bird" 12 months earlier? Unfortunately the team is owned by a publicly traded company so every decision they make is for entertainment, ticket sales, and public perception. While the teams that don't give a s*** are usually the ones who can pivot easily based on circumstances (the cheap ass Rays).

The Jays could have traded Semien and Ray, got back some good pieces, then tried to sign them back in the winter if they wanted to. Trading Semien and Ray wouldn't have been to save money, but to make the 2022 team as good as possible. In that sense the Berrios trade was at least defensible regardless of whether they bought or sold because of the extra year of control. The issue was whether they could have used Martin + SWR for something better (guess it's debatable what Martin's value to the industry actually was by the time he was moved). I mean, the freakin Mariners turned an impending FA into a potentially good player at 3B with many years of control left (Toro) and still created the illusion of trying to contend by making subsequent moves to help the team short term. The Jays could have done something like that too.

I would have agreed with you if the trade market resembled 2017-20 where teams held on to prospects/young players. At least then you could say it wouldn't have made a difference trading Semien/Ray for more McKinney, Merryweather, Kay, etc, types. But this trade deadline was a rare situation where teams were more willing to trade higher ranked young players. I'm sure the front office discussed every possible scenario internally but there was absolutely no chance they were going to actually sell and everyone knew it. If you ask me whether I would have rather kept Semien for 2 more months while trying to dig out of a hole and hoping 4 other teams regressed, or traded him for (as an example) Nick Madrigal who could have helped the 2022 team reach the playoffs for $650k, or Pete Crow Armstrong who they could have either tried to develop or traded in a package for a difference maker, etc, etc, it would be hard to find the former option that appealing by comparison. If the Jays were in the AL Central, then it's a different ball game. In the AL East, you have to be a little more creative. Ask yourself, what would the Rays have done in that same situation (ignoring the financial side of things)? The Yankees had no choice but to try to improve because they had no tradeable assets except their best player (Judge). They have to squeeze whatever they can out of their current group. The Jays were a lot more flexible roster-wise.