glory

The Astros are probably the best team in the AL. It's very close with them and the Rays. They should be getting more attention for how good they are. They are still excellent at developing talent.

Last year's Rays/Jays wild card round averaged like 500k viewers. No chance they would have put that on prime time. It would have been ratings death for Fox. They likely would have switched the order and had HOU/CWS on the prime time slot. Only reason the Rays are getting prime time now is because the Red Sox are a draw, and the Yankees would have been as well.

Not only is the team on the rise, but expanded playoffs is almost certainly to happen whenever the CBA is agreed to. If Montoyo starts 2022 as manager, then he'll probably be around for a while.

Stro is basically Berrios in terms of overall value. A consistent 3-4 WAR SP who eats up innings. That's better than a #4. It's probably a very solid #2-3. Between him and Ray, I think I'd probably prefer Stroman, but that's primarily due to expected cost. Ray could conceivably get a Patrick Corbin type of deal (6/140), though he's probably getting 5 years instead of 6. Stroman over a 5 year deal is going to get, what? Somewhere between $80-100m? It would likely be a significant cost saving and I don't even think it's a lock Ray is better next year or beyond. Stroman's floor is a lot higher, and Ray is coming off a career year. I could understand people not wanting Stro back, and I by no means actually expect either side to seriously consider it, but it wouldn't be a bad idea, IMO. I would obviously prefer Scherzer, Thor, etc.

I'd be fine with Stroman, and I don't even think it's outlandish to think he'd be as good or better than Ray next season (depends on how real you think Ray's 2021 was). It won't happen, and this is all window dressing so Stro looks good in Canadian social media circles, but give me the pitcher that wants the ball in his hand when it matters. Manoah gives off that vibe, and we know Stro has it.

I think it's more likely the Jays trade Kirk and use Jansen/Reese in 2022 until Moreno is ready than it is moving Moreno to another position. They have no reason to move Moreno off catcher unless they think there is a better long term internal option, and the only one who has a chance to fit that description on the current roster was riding pine in favor of Reese McGuire down the stretch.

Yeah I think Chapman is a nice target assuming he's available. A league average hitter with elite defense is his floor. He still has some offensive upside if he regain his pre-2020 form (maybe getting away from OAK would help), and the two years of control would actually benefit the Jays since it's a perfect length for someone his age + would give internal IF options (Groshans, Martinez) a bit of time. Not sure what it would cost to get him, but it should be no where near the price of getting Ramirez for the same years of control, and Chapman has proven to have Semien-2021 type of upside in terms of overall value.

I miss JD on the team as much as anyone, but do we really want him as the starting 3B in 2022-23? He was a 2 WAR player in 2021 while staying pretty healthy all season (543 PA). The defense isn't great anymore and he's become a bad baserunner on top of that (lots of lower body injuries adding up?). Grichuk is awful and not having him on the roster would be incredible, but I think having JD at age 36-37 probably doesn't move the needle much, if at all. On top of that he makes $21m in 2022, $21m in 2023, and then $6M in 2024 (buyout), with a $2m assignment bonus when he's traded. Even factoring the difference between his and Grichuk's contracts, that's still adding over $30m in payroll over 3 years for a player on the decline.

I don't follow the Mets, but I'd be surprised if they didn't offer Syndergaard the qualifying offer. He hasn't pitched in 2 seasons (aside from 2 innings recently) but a 1/18 type of deal for him would still have tremendous upside. If he isn't offered the QO for whatever reason, then I'd have no issues giving him a big one year deal. Hell, you could probably justify losing a pick in the 70's (or whatever it is) to get him on a one year deal if he's given the QO considering you'll get a comp pick for Ray to balance it out, but not sure what Shatkins would do in that case, especially given the 2 years off. If you're looking for the 2022 Robbie Ray, I'd say Noah has the best shot at it.

The only time I'll root for the Red Sox is if they face the Rays. Otherwise I hope the Yankees can win this one. Not looking good.

Sucks that the Jays aren't in this, but tonight is going to be a fun game. This rivalry, while it isn't as hot as it used to be, mixed with the win or go home aspect is very compelling.

Would be nice to get out of that contract, but no one is taking a replacement level 4th OF with nearly $19m left on his deal. Best bet would be to get an equally bad contract in return that has a bit more value to the Jays. Maybe the Brewers would trade JBJ for him? At least JBJ would fit the team better as a 4th OF (LHB, can legit play CF) and money with buyout mixed in is about equal. Either way, that's the type of deal that you would have to expect for Grich. That 5 year deal feels as long as Pujols' deal with the Angels.

I wouldn't say he's like Semien (whose ceiling is basically a MVP candidate), but Conforto could easily be a 3-4 WAR players next year, and from the left side which would help balance out the lineup a bit. It's too bad Michael Brantley didn't sign. He was practically the perfect player for this offense.

Semien has also been a top 5 WAR player in the entire league for the last two 162 game seasons. His 2020 season after the first 2 weeks or so resembled this type of player as well, except the season was too short for the overall numbers to look the part. There will be decline in his 30's, but if you wanted a safer bet to be worth the deal he's going to get, then Semien > Ray, IMO. The last start against the Yankees by Ray is kind of warning sign. A little dip in velocity or his command suddenly getting lost again, and he could be an albatross very quickly. Even with an offensive decline, Semien should still have the higher floor, and he clearly has the higher ceiling. I don't get Kawhi vibes with Semien either. Maybe he does prefer the West Coast, or a chance to play SS again, but I feel like he legitimately likes the team and would re-sign if the offer was the highest. Whether the Jays should give him a Springer contract is the question. You can't have too many of those because it might restrict available resources for extensions to young players. If they give Semien something like 5/125, then I'd probably avoid another big FA deal for a while, and try to get by with shorter term deals elsewhere.

ESPN is loving it. My gym was playing ESPN on TV this morning, and all I saw was hype for the Red Sox/Yankees series. That was more baseball coverage than they show most of the year. I know the game is on ESPN, so they benefit from the promotion, but I doubt they would have gone this hard with it if it was Toronto/Seattle. Combine that with Cardinals/Dodgers as the other game, and MLB is probably happy with the matchups, and both should be great games.

I'm not sure this is even MLB's call. They broadcast the AL on one network and the NL on the other. TBS and FOX are not going to want overlapping games against each other, and one network can't air two games at the same time, so you're left with having to spread the games out throughout the day. The other option is to extend the days between games so that each game can be on primetime, but then you're left with something like the NBA playoffs which run for 2+ months.

I don't think the InGuardians will trade Ramirez, but if they do, they always seem to prioritize some sort of short term help along with prospect capital. Maybe they would have interest in Gurriel, but he'd have to be included along with top prospects. To me, I'd want to hold on to Moreno and Martinez, but I'd be ok moving anyone else. Montoyo didn't seem all that eager to play Kirk down the stretch so maybe he's trade bait. I don't know if Groshans, Kirk, and Gurriel even gets their attention, but something like that is probably a starting point. They may insist on Moreno + others. I still think Matt Chapman is a better target. Should be cheaper to acquire and the A's are almost guaranteed to cut payroll.

I'd root for anybody over the Rays, so as long as it's the Yanks/Red Sox, Astros, or White Sox in the World Series on the AL side, I don't care who wins.

If I'm Shatkins, I'm throwing a shitload of money at Scherzer over three years. Make him take less to stay in Cali or somewhere else. He fits the rotation perfectly, and the visual of seeing Charlie Montoyo having to take his crazy ass out of a game is worth a few more million tacked on.

Agreed. Unless they decide to slash payroll for some reason, I fully expect more home run swings by the front office. The chances of them hitting the holy grail of off seasons again (Semien/Springer/Ray) is very unlikely, especially now as more teams will probably spend money (as opposed to last winter when the Jays were only 1 of like 3 teams who spent anything), but either way I expect them to shop in the elite section again. What remains to be seen is whether they legitimately try to re-sign Semien and Ray, or try to find the 2022 versions of Semien and Ray. I think you can make an argument for either approach depending on how you want to look at it. Not sure who the one year deals will be in 2022. Maybe one of the SS's coming off a down year or don't see a market due to heavy competition may take a one year pillow deal. Only Story and maybe Baez fit that category. A LH bat like Conforto, who the Mets may not qualify, will probably look for a one year pillow deal coming off a down season, and he fits the Jays needs perfectly (buy low). On the pitching side, ideally the Jays go bonkers and just offer a high AAV over 3 years for Scherzer, but I don't think he'd have any interest in the Jays. Syndergaard might be the 2022 version of Ray if he's healthy, but the Mets would be foolish not to qualify him.

I'm not sure we can pin the lack of early season trades on Shatkins since you don't see many significant May trades, but I think they deserve more blame for the bullpen setup prior to the season. They threw $10m on Yates (injured when he put pen to paper), Chatwood (awful for years), and Phelps (oft injured). Beyond that, they were counting on good health for Merryweather and Borucki, two guys who are never healthy, and Dolis to be good after a fluke 24 innings in 2020. The pen had some upside with health, but without health, it went about as well as you could have pictured it in that scenario. Once you combine that with Buntoyo having no clue how to manage a bullpen, and it becomes more clear why we are all pissing and moaning today rather than waiting for a Wild Card game tomorrow.

If the Jays are losing Ray, then they could do a hell of a lot worse than Stroman as the replacement, but no chance it happens.

Yeah, if the Jays weren't going to make it, then I'm fine with NYY/BOS from a baseball fan standpoint. It's the biggest rivalry in the sport (even though it's not as intense as it used to be) and should be a great atmosphere at Fenway. But as mentioned, it will be on ESPN, so will have to watch it on mute. If anything, I'm actually rooting for whoever wins the WC game to take out the Rays.

My fear is that they won't want to give him lameduck status next year, which means if he's not fired, then he might actually be extended (even if only for another year). If they keep him around, and MLB expands the playoffs in 2022, then I think he's going to be around for a while, unfortunately. Even with Buntoyo this team can probably make a playoff format with 7 teams in each league making it in.

Yup, to me that's the biggest reason the Jays missed the playoffs. We can blame Charlie, Semien's error, or any other mistake made in a game, but the team played 36 home games all season. Clearly they do really well at RC, and with a crowd that actually supports them. Even with Montoyo managing this team makes the playoffs if they play in RC a month or two earlier than they did, even if capacity was 5k. Just frustrating.