glory

Considering what the Marlins gave Avisail Garcia, they might be the only team on the planet that might see Grichuk at 2/18 as a reasonable deal.

deGrom can opt out after 2022 so if he has a healthy 2022 season, then he's probably beating Scherzer's AAV next winter unless he prioritizes years over AAV. Not sure how the Mets can possibly deal with that, but Cohen is a fan who owns a team, so he clearly is going to spend until it works.

Max is definitely using the Mets to drive up the price for the Dodgers.

Berrios, Gausman, Manoah, and Ryu is a damn good top 4 on paper, and I'm sure they'll acquire one more SP.

Jays sign Gausman, 5/110 according to Passan.

I don't know what long term deals Semien was being offered as a free agent after the 2020 season, but turning whatever that was into 8/193 (his 2021 deal + this deal) is remarkable for him. Knew his value and played free agency perfectly. No chance the Jays were going 7 years. This was probably the longest deal he was going to get from a team.

7 years? Man, good for you Marcus. Bet on himself and it paid off big time.

At first glance this does seem like a bit much given his history, but I trust Atkins with relievers. With his jump in velocity last season combined with K and spin rate this seems like Atkins betting on Garcia taking a big leap forward rather than paying for what he is. Hopefully he's right.

Rosenthal suggesting the Mets still want to bring Baez back. That was before they signed Marte so not sure if it still applies, but if Baez/Lindor/Escobar is their IF, then a more interesting target might be McNeil. A LH bat who can play 2B/3B (not sure how he looks defensively), and is coming off a down season where he had a public fight with their new star.

I think this is an understated part of this off season. The Jays were in a great spot last winter when they were one of maybe 3-4 teams that was actually spending money. It made signing top free agents far more realistic, and Shatkins did the right thing by spending big when the opportunity was there. A Springer type of FA in this winter's market is likely much more coveted and would be more difficult to sign. This winter has way more teams involved, which means more competition for FA's (driving the prices up), and way more money being spent in general. Granted, the Jays should be a much more attractive team to FA's after 2021 than they were after 2019-2020, so maybe that helps a bit, but they are still in a tough position when it comes to free agency. In that scenario, maybe Rodon actually is a realistic target. It's possible that teams get scared of his medicals/injury history combined with his likely asking price (Boras), leaving him looking for a contract late into the winter. To some degree, that's how the Jays ended up with Ryu, as they were the only team willing to take the risk of giving him more than 2-3 years. With more conventional FA targets, even with the success of the 2021 season, I think the Jays are at more of a disadvantage again.

I would agree with that, but I feel like we are missing something with Rodon. The White Sox did not give him the QO. As a Boras client he was almost surely going to reject it, but even if the White Sox were afraid he would accept, why would that thought scare them? A 1/18 deal for a SP like him, especially if they wanted him to prove that 2021 was not a fluke, was pretty much a no brainer contract. The only reason not to qualify him (that I can think of) was if they were afraid of his health. Who knows, maybe this is a Ryu situation where health concerns are overblown and his market will be lessened because of it. If that's the case, then I think you might be on to something.

The issue is as long as the Rays exist in their current form, it's going to be in St. Pete with the Trop as their stadium. It doesn't appear a better stadium in a better location is in the cards. So there's really no justification to keep them where they are. A perennial 90+ win team in a market that has more baseball fans would make a killing. The Rays were giving away tickets in September just to get 10k in the stands. I'm not sure if Montreal is the answer, but at this point anything would be better than the current Rays.

Matz would have accepted the QO 20 seconds after it was offered to him.

I know it was a different GM, but this is a guy they traded away for scraps a year ago. Just because he came up in the org, it doesn't mean he owes them anything. Good for Matz. I wouldn't have gone 4 years on him, so glad he went elsewhere.

Great move for Tampa, and probably not that bad for Franco compared to other long extensions that young players usually sign. Mookie Betts made about $60m in years 0-6 before free agency. Even if you bumped Franco up to $70m, that means he gave up 6 years of FA years for $153m ($25.5m AAV). Likely well below market value if he's as good as expected, but not Acuna levels of "I'll give up my prime for a hamburger". Usually I'd hate one of the game's young stars signing with that poverty franchise, but they'll probably be in Montreal (or somewhere else) soon enough, so probably a good thing in the long run.

I'd be fine with signing Matz if the deal is reasonable, but I agree that he's more of a small fish. There's going to be a borderline non tender on some team coming off a down year that the Jays could trade for like they did with Matz last season, or a pitcher looking for a pillow contract in free agency. I think I'd rather go that route for the back end of the rotation and go big on the other SP acquisition. But if Matz at ~$12m AAV doesn't prevent future moves, then it certainly wouldn't hurt to add more rotation depth. That's a big org weakness right now.

Yeah the reason he signed for what he did was because he was hurt, and the Jays signed him anyway on the chance he would remain healthy. I mean, I guess it had high reward and the cost was minor, but if his physicals look like s*** to the point where other teams are backing off, then the risk is clearly much higher than any reward. Hopefully this year when Atkins buys low on relievers it will be RP's coming off down years, and not RP's who can't pass physicals. Relievers are volatile enough as it is. If you know one of them is hurt before they put pen to paper, then it's probably not the best risk to take.

I think he'll get it from the Tigers based on rumors of their interest in him. They apparently want to make a big splash this winter.

Very surprised that Samad Taylor was not protected.

I still expect Ray to sign elsewhere. Some team is going to bet on 2021 being close to the new norm for him, and I'd rather it be someone else. My guess is Atkins goes after one bigger SP either in free agency or trade, and then gets a 2nd SP who is more of a project. It was mentioned in another thread, but Kikuchi seems like someone Atkins would give to Pete Walker to see if he can turn it into something (LHP, throws 95, misses bats at a decent clip). He's more in the project category. The bigger fish is harder to predict, but there are still a bunch of options in free agency, and also short term options in trades (A's SP's, Castillo/S.Gray, Marlins SP's, etc).

Only 6 pitchers in MLB history have gotten contracts for $200m or more. Cole: $324m Strasburg: $245m Price: $217m Kershaw: $215m Scherzer: $210m Greinke: $206m I like Berrios as a pitcher, but I don't think there was a chance he was going to get $200m as a FA after 2022, unless his 2022 season was suddenly bonafide ace quality.

I don't think he would have gotten $200 million offers in free agency. He's a very good starter, but even someone similar to him like Stroman is probably not coming close to that figure. If you assume his FA years were essentially signed at 6/120, then I think he left some money on the table by taking the extension, but not $200m.

Don't do it, Wander.

Could definitely see Atkins going after Kikuchi.