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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    I highly doubt the Jays are getting two "shutdown relievers". I'd be pleasantly surprised if they added one. Not because they don't have the need, but because of either cost or availability. Whether it's Grilli, Benoit, Ray, Stripling, Hand, etc, Atkins has a tendency to go for the buy low options at the deadline. Again, maybe that changes with heightened expectations, but the largest outlay Atkins has ever given to a RP was 2/11 to Garcia (unless I'm forgetting someone). I don't think he's going to trade actual prospect capital for a RP, and it's likely going to take that to get the type of established relievers the Jays need. Although like I said, Berrios last year bucked the trend a bit, so maybe he'll switch it up this time with relievers.
  2. glory
    When trying to predict an Atkins deadline pickup I usually just look at K% and no change in velocity with everything else being underwhelming. Trivino was the first guy I saw. Although heightened expectations and/or fear of job security could impact his thinking, as we saw with Berrios last trade deadline. I still think he goes for at least one buy low reliever, whether Trivino or someone else. I agree the Jays need a better reliever than that though, preferably someone as good or better than Romano.
  3. glory
    I could see the Jays trading for Lou Trivino. Excellent K rate but walks too many, high ERA, and unsustainably high BABIP (.471) and HR/FB rate (20.8%) despite no difference in velocity. Atkins seems to like trading for those types at the deadline (buy low). I could see that being one of the moves. I tend to agree they'll probably stand pat offensively. Biggio being back to his normal self is a big development, and Tapia not being ass offensively likely gives them less motivation to add an upgrade there. Zimmer is basically what Jarrod Dyson was for the team last season. I don't think they'll try to upgrade there. As mentioned, Zimmer is probably grateful he has a job right now so he's not going to complain about being a pinch runner and defensive replacement. I think every deadline pickup is going to come from the pitching side. One of Castillo or Montas seems like the type of move Atkins would make, but Castillo is going to have a lot of suitors. Montas' value might have taken a hit with his injury.
  4. glory
    Agreed, but the Angels are incompetent, so my guess is they hold on to him and then let him walk as a FA. Or at most trade him next trade deadline when they are 10 games (or more) under .500. I just hope Ohtani stays healthy and doesn't hurt himself before free agency trying to carry this joke franchise.
  5. glory
    I haven't looked at the statcast numbers so don't know if anything he's doing shows a sustainable shift from what he did previously. If this is all just a BABIP related hot streak, then I guess it's worth riding it out since he hasn't been hurting the team in the last 2 months. I get the sense that the Jays think he's got another gear in him offensively, otherwise his current playing time would make no sense, so hopefully they are right.
  6. glory
    Since May 11 (50 games), Tapia has a 133 wRC+, .320/.350/.484, and 0.7 WAR in 162 plate appearances. Only Kirk, Gurriel, and Biggio have a higher wRC+ over that span. I'm not going to apologize to him because it's going to take more than this to wipe away the stench of everything he did prior to May 11 (including his time with the Rockies), but the Jays seemed to view him as a project that was worth developing during a contending season. If it turns out they were right about him, then that's a big positive. Still have to wait and see though.
  7. glory
    Wow what an ass kicking tonight. Nice to have a laugher like this, especially in Boston.
  8. glory
    Tapia playing is clearly an organizational thing. Unfortunately we can't blame Charlie for this. If you asked me a month ago I would have said there is no chance he's tendered a contract after this season, but now I think there's a good chance he will. Unless this is their weird way of showcasing him for a trade. You don't play a guy this much in a season you want to compete if you don't value him.
  9. glory
    A s***** Blue Jays reliever going elsewhere and succeeding is becoming an annual thing now.
  10. glory
  11. glory
    I don't think so. He wants to have the highest AAV in baseball or close to it (and I'm sure Boras wants that too). He's so young that he doesn't need to trap himself in a 15 year deal with a lower AAV, and let's be honest, $29m a year for someone of his caliber is not going to get it done regardless of which team is offering it. I definitely think he'd be more open to an extension with the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc, but the money still has to be there. Wouldn't surprise me if Boras is trying to get $500m.
  12. glory
    He's getting money from the Jays for the rest of this season and all of next season, while having all the free time in the world to play bongos. He's fine.
  13. glory
    Soto is a generational hitting talent with probably the best offensive profile in the league, and year 1 of his FA deal will be his age 26 season. I disagree that he wouldn't be able to get $40m AAV, but even if he got a $35m AAV, a 12 year deal at that AAV is $420m + two years of arb before that. If he stays healthy and keeps performing like he has, then I think the only thing stopping him from $40m/yr is the amount of years he'd be looking for. Usually those long deals come at the expense of AAV. But in general, I think he's beating Trout's contract at a minimum, IMO. How much higher it goes depends on performance, health, etc.
  14. glory
    Trade value site has Soto's value at 193.7 and Bichette/Moreno/Martinez at 192.10, so that's probably a fair offer. We are talking about 3 chances at a World Series with Soto/Vlad on the roster together. Espinal would probably be better defensive SS than Bo, and Biggio has bounced back to the point where starting him at 2B is probably doable now. Kirk/Jansen cover catcher for at least the next 2.5 years (until Jansen is a FA) so the sting of losing Moreno won't be felt short term. Martinez has a high ceiling but also a risky profile so you could probably live with moving him. I'd do that deal and prepare for Soto to leave after 2024.
  15. glory
    I know health risk is always there, but I don't blame him for turning it down if he wants to bet on himself. On the open market he'd easily get over $40m AAV two years from now. He's making $17m this season. Two more years of arb he's likely looking at, what, $50m (give or take) over the next two years? So if someone will give him over $400m two years from now, plus the ~$50m he will get in arb over the next two years, then why would he sign that Nats deal? Only reason would be if he was terrified of injury or performance over the next 2 years, and he clearly isn't. I agree it's tough to turn that much guaranteed money down, but if he feels he can get more, possibly much more, then good for him to bet on himself.
  16. glory
    Yeah I think Vlad will rebound offensively, but right now his 2019, 2020, and 2022 seasons are far closer to each other than they are to his 2021 season. Not to mention the first four months of his 2021 season had him playing his home games in a minor league stadium and spring training complex (don't remember what his home/road splits were but I'd imagine they were somewhat significant). If he was a SS or OF, then no problem, but as a 1B (much less a 1B who previously had body fat issues), it's hard to justify the Tatis-level contract it would take to get him to sign at this point. I don't think he takes 10/300 even at his current performance. He becomes a FA after his age 26 season. That's very young. He's not Acuna or Albies who signed their primes away for way less than they were worth, he's likely looking to maximize his earnings. The extension candidates on this team are probably Kirk and Moreno, as I don't believe they were highly touted so their signing bonuses were probably marginal, though could be wrong on that.
  17. glory
    Hopefully there is some 9th inning magic because this would be a terrible loss.
  18. glory
    Banda in a high leverage spot seems a little risky.
  19. glory
    Jays had their 2nd best starter on the mound, their best lineup on the field, and are facing a AAA roster (almost entirely) and still could lose. If there is a way to blame Charlie and/or Tapia for this, please let me know.
  20. glory
    Yeah this is an excellent lineup. The right players are playing, and moving Bichette down in the order was badly needed. Schneider already looking better than Buntoyo.
  21. glory
    Yeah with the current roster, if they don't want to play both catchers at once and want to use DH as a revolving door of rest days for their regulars, then Biggio needs to be the everyday utility player. When Gurriel is DH, then Biggio is in LF. When Vlad is DH, then Biggio at 1B. Etc. The issue is when Springer needs a blow, but either live with Zimmer there in that spot or might as well use Biggio there. Not like Tapia is a great defensive CF. Basically, Tapia shouldn't be on this team, so the fact that he's in the lineup at all is a problem. My guess/fear is that this is a 2016 Justin Smoak situation where they see Tapia having some type of breakout potential with the bat and wanting to see it through. Otherwise his playing time makes no sense at all.
  22. glory
    I know it’s not happening this season but really hope the Angels trade him. You just don’t know how long he will be able to do both at this level, and it would be a shame if he wastes any more of this for that franchise.
  23. glory
    Yeah as much as I want them to replace Tapia, I see them standing pat on the position player side. My guess is all the pickups are going to be pitching (1 starter and then as many RP's as they can afford/get).
  24. glory
    The player to benefits most from the way the Jays use the DH spot is Tapia, who is awful. If Benintendi were getting those plate appearances instead, it would be a pretty dramatic upgrade. The Jays simply don’t like using both catchers at the same time often enough. Replacing Tapia with a LH OF would be a nice fit.
  25. glory
    So Benintendi is not a trade option for the Jays. Would have fit perfectly. Need a LH bat to avoid Tapia getting 550 plate appearances.
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