glory

Surprised Bassitt is still in this game.

I think I'm fine with Biggio in there for now. It's really IKF who should be playing less in favor of Clement, as I don't think there is a huge gap there defensively, and offensively Clement might be able to BABIP his way to decent numbers while IKF is what he is. Either way, DS absolutely should be starting everyday, so I'll take that tiny consolation for now.

DS starting in LF against a RHP for the second night in a row. Is JS feeling ok?

Only for tonight. I’d imagine if there’s a righty on the mound tomorrow, it will be back to the KK/Varsho outfield with Schneider on the bench. But Varsho as a 4th OF is probably a reasonable way to use him at this point. Not good for optics though.

Not watching the game, but if the crowd is booing JS, then they have earned my respect.

Yeah, Clement instead of IKF, and that's probably their best lineup based on what's available on the roster. At this point I think KK might be a better hitter than Varsho, which is disappointing, but it is what it is.

IKF is going to get 600 plate appearances this season. Atkins deserves what he gets.

Serven isn't a big leaguer. He's barely a minor leaguer. Not sure how he made the team even with the Jansen injury.

I really don't see Varsho being a plus 100 wRC+ player again. I don't know how he did it in Arizona. Maybe the org did something to his approach/swing but he's looked awful for well over a year now.

Today's lineup: RF Springer 1B Vlad SS Bo 3B Turner DH Vogelbach 2B Clement LF Varsho CA Serven CF Kiermaier

The fact that they are 2-2 in their last 4 games given how they've hit is a damn miracle. Pitching as expected is going to be the key to how this season goes. Basically need a repeat of 2023 in the aggregate and then hope for either internal development offensively or more realistically a bunch of trades at the deadline.

The options are Serven and Vogelbach. So option 1 is another catcher who probably doesn't provide much difference in speed, and option 2 is the only athlete on earth that might be slower than Kirk. Really don't understand the point of Vogelbach being on this roster if he's playing 1 game in 8 days. Just put Lukes in that spot you at least have a pinch runner.

Might be time to call up AJ Preller and make a logical Vlad trade.

The sad thing is, if they told IKF that he was going to be a utility bench player moving forward, he'd probably be fine with it. Not his fault they want to give him 600 PA for some reason. Kiermaier seems like he'd have an ego given how great of a defensive CF he was/is, but f*** it, start DS and Clement together and have IKF/KK off the bench. Perfectly reasonable set up.

Clement and Schneider trying to save this season like 2023.

I think I would have respected Atkins’ off season more if he just went with internal options after he struck out on Ohtani. He could have still signed Turner or whoever at DH since that DH market had a big supply, but going internal with LF/3B made more sense than what they ended up doing. It was a bad FA market. Don’t spend for the sake of spending. Just go out and say “we trust our development process and believe in our young players”, and then stick Schneider in LF and Barger at 3B, or whatever. If it failed then at least you failed with a logical process.

DS starting, playing 2B, and batting 5th. Feels good man.

A lineup with both Jansen and Schneider in it does add an important dynamic (power) to a lineup that desperately needs it. At least they'll actually play Jansen once he comes back. He just can't stay on the field long enough. But if there is any question about who the starting catcher is, there shouldn't be. Jansen is it. Unfortunately he's not durable so Kirk will play a lot regardless.

Do other organizations talk about a young player's weaknesses to the media to justify not playing them like this? Schneider (the dipshit, not Davis) could have just said "we think this is the best lineup for the matchup today" and left it at that. I mean that would have been BS too but at least it wasn't shedding a spotlight on a perceived weakness of one of your own players.

Yeah this is a big issue and it has long term ramifications as it bleeds into the minor league system as well. The young players on this team aside from Bichette all seemed to perform at their highest during 2020-21 when they played like 90% of their games in a minor league facility, and then 2022-23 saw declines. Some gradual, some steep. The only SP they developed in 8 years went from good to absolute dog s*** in a span of like 6 months. They can't seem develop even swing man quality pitchers in nearly a decade of sample size. Something is not right with the coaching in this organization, and the fact that they think promoting Don Mattingly was going to fix/help the offense is kinda sad.

This is also a realistic possibility. Kirk has been a 90 wRC+ player (.090 ISO) since August 2022. He's been a below average player a lot longer (and more recently) than he was a good player since coming into the league. Varsho's xwOBA in 2022 when he was a near 5 WAR player was .298, so not only did the Jays buy high, but they likely overestimated what his offensive ceiling is/was. It's certainly possible that he's league average offensively but I don't think we can assume that at this rate with the expected numbers looking the way they have looked (nevermind the eye test). This is Springer's age 34 season and father time is undefeated. Vlad is the one wild card here as we know the ceiling is super high, but outside of 2021, he has a combined WAR of 3.9 in 4 seasons. At some point you have to stop looking at the outlier as something to expect/hope for and start looking closer to the average of what he's actually done. As I said before, if Vlad/Bo are superstars (5+ WAR players) this season, then we are not going to nitpick on the complimentary pieces as much and there will be a real chance to do damage. Failing that, it's hard seeing this offense as currently constructed being a factor. Even Davis Schneider who absolutely should be playing everyday has enough warts where he may not be what the projections say he is (high K rate). It's still early and the pitching should still be very good if healthy so by no means should anyone be throwing in the towel, but man it's hard to look at this roster and get excited. I think Laika's rant is closer to reality than we want it to be.

Yeah, but I'm curious if it's "getting too cute" or simply trying to rationalize two awful signings (IKF/KK). Maybe a little bit of both.

This season is going to be infuriating to watch much like 2023 was.

In Kirk's last 649 PA dating back to 2022, he has a 90 wRC+ and .090 ISO. I don't think a Jansen extension will happen, but it really should. Kirk ain't it.

It's certainly possible. The difference in this case is that there is not much to dream on. Chapman has 4+ WAR upside, IKF doesn't. Kiermaier had a 104 wRC+ last season but can we reasonably expect him to repeat that? I guess it's possible but I think something around 90 is probably more realistic for him given his talent level and age. I have no clue what Varsho is as an offensive player but his statcast numbers even prior to 2023 were not good. It's going to come down to Vlad, Bo, Springer, Kirk, and Jansen. DS being a wild card with some upside is why he should be playing everyday as the Jays need more of those types. Clement is another one. I don't know, on paper it screams middle of the pack offense to me. Of course if the big guys in the lineup play like big guys, then it makes having lesser talented hitters around them more palatable. This window was predicated on Vlad and Bo being superstars, and they basically need to be this season.