glory

My thoughts exactly. If Votto was signed to be the everyday DH then I’d have an issue with it, but to replace Vogelbach on the end of the bench? Even if Vogelbach at this point is better against RHP, the difference between the two in that role is so marginal that from a fan/entertainment/optics standpoint this is a no brainer decision.

Vogelbach only makes sense if they plan to use Turner in the field a few times a week, which I doubt. A fat DH-only platoon bat on the bench who exists to pinch hit for IKF seems like a waste otherwise. Ideally they sign Grossman and punt Espinal into the sun. Bench of Biggio/Schneider, Kirk/Jansen, Clement, and Grossman would be solid.

The Jays don't have a 4th OF, and Schneider can play LF, which none of Clement/Espinal/Vogelbach/Escobar will likely be asked to do, so I don't think DS will be demoted. Even if he's not the starting 2B, he'll likely still be the primary LF against LHP + whatever starts he gets against RHP. It's going to come down to Espinal vs Clement most likely. Keeping both makes no sense. The issue is that players better than Espinal are signing for $1m in free agency, so he might be a negative asset at his salary at this point. I doubt there's a trade there unless they take back an equal (or close) salary.

I remember a few years ago Shapiro saying that he hates player options. Atkins did give one to Berrios so I guess maybe he's softened a bit on that stance, but otherwise I'd be surprised if the Jays gave a contract to a player with the structure that Bellinger and Chapman got.

From May 1-onwards: Home: 81 wRC+, 222 PA, .156 ISO Road: 87 wRC+, 245 PA, .136 ISO Yeah, not sure if Chappy has the right mindset if he's blaming the RC for his bad numbers. Maybe it's injury, maybe it's decline, maybe it's a little of both. A bounce back wouldn't shock me if it was health related. Doesn't appear that the park was the reason behind it though.

The Jays collectively were a lot worse offensively at home. Team wRC+ of 103 at home (17th in MLB) and 111 on the road (5th in MLB). Kinda curious now how the 2023 team would have done without the stadium renovations, but Chapman specifically (along with Springer) were pulling the ball a lot less than they did the previous year, so that likely contributed to their drop in power/production. As far as IKF, if the Jays can squeeze a 2+ WAR out of him without having give him like 650 PA to get it, then that would be a decent outcome. I don't share the same optimism that others seem to with him, but would love to be wrong about that.

If the Jays got word from Chapman that he had no interest in returning, then yes, pivoting early made sense, and we should go easier on Atkins for that. Pivoting to IKF for 2/15 is what most of the complaints are based on, though.

Yeah I think this is the part that is most depressing. It's not that Atkins misjudged the market (he did), but he prioritized 1 WAR talent enough to overpay for it in free agency when the market had not fully developed yet. KK and IKF would have still been unsigned in Jan/Feb, and even if they weren't, who cares? Just find the best 1 WAR talent you can find with what's left, or use internal options that might project to be that caliber (or better) anyway. Atkins to his credit has not always acted like this, especially recently, where he's been willing to (over)pay for higher caliber players (Ryu, Springer, Semien, Gausman, Bassitt, etc) or make prudent buy low pick ups (Ray, Belt, KK last year, etc). The upside from the players he's signed this off season is kinda minimal at best aside from Green, who if he bounces back to pre injury form is a really good RP. If Atkins literally did nothing this winter and just picked up the scraps available in Feb/March, it would be better than what he did just by virtue of being cheaper and not much different from a value standpoint. Just plug Horowitz or Vogelbach at DH, sign Grossman to hit against LHP, sign Urshela for peanuts, use Roden or Barger or DS in the OF, German as SP depth, etc.

I don’t like the IKF signing but I actually think it’s more justifiable than the KK signing. At least IKF is a great defensive player at a position where the Jays have no one competent anywhere in the org (based on how they moved Orelvis and Barger elsewhere), and he could easily shift to a utility role with no ego issues if a better option becomes available. Not to mention the market for 3B was ass. KK is a different story. Would have been fine if the Jays didn’t have a CF but just a poor use of assets there.

You could be right, this off season has almost been a carbon copy of the 2016-17 winter, right down to misjudging the market by signing flawed players early. They knew the 2015-16 window was closing but wanted to keep the train moving for as long as they could without handcuffing their future flexibility. However I’m not sure if that was the same logic used here or whether they just did what they felt was the best they could do based on a bad free agent market and what turned out to be a non existent trade market. The difference between signing Ohtani and doing what they actually did is night and day. Shapiro’s contract is up after next season I believe. I would think him and Atkins are joined at the hip at this point, and there’s no reason to believe Shapiro’s job is in danger unless he himself wants to leave. Atkins has not operated like a man who is worried about job security, which makes this off season even more confusing.

That's possible, but that doesn't really excuse the off season. It just makes moving on from Chapman more sensible. The Jays had the right plan (aim high and then go for short term vets when that failed) but the execution was about as bad as possible, even more so now that the market cratered.

Yeah, I just don’t see why he was so in a hurry to sign those two, plus Turner. Yes it’s not ideal to head into spring training with holes in the roster but when the alternative is overpaying for 1-2 WAR talent (almost entirely because of defense), then just wait it out. Worst case you miss out and have to put Schneider in LF, or Roden, or Barger, or whoever, but Chapman at 3B and one of those guys in LF is likely better than what the Jays have at the moment. I’d have more respect for Atkins if he just played the prospects at this point and lived with the consequences. Just use KK and IFK as expensive bench depth. Won’t happen though.

The Jays are paying KK, IKF, Turner, and Rodriguez more than Chapman and Soler in 2024. That's crazy. And there's a plethora of vetrin OF options signing for peanuts now that wouldn't have forced the great defensive CF you traded for to play LF again. I really hope we look back on this off season positively, but holy s***, this is bad.

Yeah this is a massive L for Atkins. Misjudged the market about as bad as any GM in the league. Chapman at $18m AAV when they'll be paying the same to KK and IKF combined is horrendous.

I’d be shocked if it’s not Vogelbach. Atkins loves depth and he knows he can stash Horowitz in Buffalo. I just hope Clement wins out over Espinal somehow.

What take are you referring to? If it's about Kiermaier, then the only thing I've said is that after signing he said that he was surprised at the lack of interest in him throughout free agency, as he was expecting more teams to be in on him. I don't recall reading anything about how many teams were actually interested in him.

Tiedemann (much like pitching prospects in general) is very risky. I'd rather he throw whatever bullets he has in the big leagues, and if they have to restrict him a bit during the season for innings purposes, then deal with that when it happens. Of course this recent setback might mean he won't be ramped up in time for the start of the season. I'd have no issues with Francis getting a shot. He should have gotten a fair one last season rather than having Manoah pitch like s*** every 5th day. If he doesn't work out then move on to the next, but good teams find capable bottom of the rotation SP depth internally, and it's about time the Jays start doing it.

This does feel a little like the 2017 off season, where the team was coming off incredible SP health and a playoff appearance in 2016, and then proceeded to jump the market early (Morales, Pearce) only to see the market crater shortly after. Hell, they even signed a Cuban with no MLB experience that winter (Gurriel). It certainly looks like they jumped the gun with the KK and IKF signings. KK had little to no market based on his own words, and IKF is a 80 wRC+ player so even with the defense I don't see how that's the type of player you overpay and jump the market on. Turner is a bit more justifiable, but out of all the DH options, he was one of the least appealing to me due to age. Of course, the FA market was so bad that the only real difference between what they did and what they could have done by waiting is probably a marginal difference in wins. Only real difference would be in payroll, which would have some significance if it opened up a bit more room to add a Chapman type on a short term deal without having to worry as much about the CBT implications, but I think the FO is truly done with Chapman and don't care to bring him back. Honestly, the more I look at this team, the more I hope they say f*** it and just put Orelvis at 2B and Roden or Schneider in LF to begin the year and let whatever happens happen.

Dumping Espinal for Clement is a no brainer. Whether a team would be willing to take all of Espinal’s contract in a trade is debatable now given the market, though. Maybe the years of control would entice a team looking for a utility IF.

The Jays badly need a high impact prospect to develop on the position player side. Would be nice if Orelvis ends up forcing their hand in ST.

Yup. This same FO/manager was trotting Manoah out last season when he was not right. Wouldn't shock me if they do the same here, especially if Tiedemann isn't built up by then. I don't know when Rodriguez is going to start pitching and/or whether they want to give him a SP workload right away or not. He's another wild card in this. But I'd be shocked if they have Francis start (he probably deserves a chance to) or White. Gotta hope Tiedemann or Rodriguez somehow get that spot.

I doubt Atkins would trade Garcia/Richards given how obsessed he is with depth. It's more likely he lets Chapman sign elsewhere and he'll just stick with what they have. Much like last season, they need a RHH 4th OF who can hit LHP. I can't imagine Robbie Grossman is turning down starting gigs elsewhere. He mashes lefties and will probably come cheap. If you sign him and trade Espinal for anything that breathes, then that's instantly an upgrade plus a more logical roster construction.

If you told Jays fans after the last out in Minnesota that the team would spend $50m in free agency in the off season, and end up with KK, IKF, Turner, Green's option, and Rodriguez, I'm not sure there would be a mop big enough to clean up the vomit that would have ensued. I hope it works out in the end, but man, on paper it's very disappointing. Of course, having money to spend in a bad FA market is probably a big part of what lead to this.

Based on the current roster, it looks like DS will be in LF and Espinal at 2B against lefties. Against righties will probably be a mix and match between DS and Biggio. Like I said before I’m not sure it’s a sure thing to pencil in DS as the starting 2B. Lots of people in the org love Biggio.