glory

How Atkins has operated this winter is someone who has no fear for his job security. Objectively, the team has averaged 90 wins over the last 3 seasons, and made the playoffs over the last 2, finishing with over 3 million fans in 2023. It's possible fans overstate how much at risk Atkins actually is. Granted, not everyone with a possible fragile job security is going to scorch earth like AA did in 2015, so maybe Atkins is just operating business as usual despite any potential noise about his role, but somehow I doubt that. The fact that he brought in a 39 year old DH, an injury prone OF, and whatever you want to label IKF, it seems like he's leaving the door open for prospects to take over either sometime in 2024 or 2025. Whether that means trying to integrate those prospects into an already contending team or retooling post 2024 depends on how 2024 goes. It would be pretty cool if the Jays made the playoffs again with Schneider, Horowitz, Orelvis, Tiedemann, Barger, etc, playing roles. Not sure if that's something Atkins is banking on or whether he truly believes in the vetrins he's brought in.

Yeah giving him 2/15 definitely feels like they value him higher than FG projections/WAR. You don’t give that contract to someone you plan to use sparingly. I think absolute best case scenario is that they signed him to start at 3B but would move him into a super utility role if a prospect beat him out, but I’m not convinced that this FO is going to trust Orelvis or Barger to handle 3B right out of the gate. IKF will hold fort down for at least a couple of months.

Interesting that Law thinks Orelvis can handle 3B defensively. If he can, then that would be fantastic for the Jays who clearly have a hole there.

The Jays thought highly enough of White to trade for him, and then put him back on the 40 man roster after last season where he looked awful. I think they'll give him every chance to win a spot. He was great in his last 6 AAA starts last season, and was hitting 97 on the gun (not sure if he was doing that previously), so maybe there's some hope. If there isn't then they can always get rid of him later. Reality is, Manoah is a massive question mark, Tiedemann will be on an innings limit, Yariel hasn't pitched in a year, and the team preferred starting a completely broken Manoah over Francis in 2023. There's probably a 50% chance that White is the #5 starter to start the season if he looks competent.

Yeah, Burnes is a one year commitment, and they used expendable prospect depth to get him. Trade probably would have happened even if they didn't sell the team. If they sign Snell, then that's a different story.

I miss Angelos.

IKF at 3B is gross, and I expect Kiermaier to regress to below average offensively. Other than that, there's a lot of volatility in the lineup. Could be good, could be average, or if Vlad/Springer/Kirk/Varsho don't bounce back, then it could get ugly. I think the team is hoping for not only bounce backs/regression, but also hoping that depth can help compensate over 162. The fact that the Jays decided to go with an injury prone KK, 40 year old Turner, and backup in IKF definitely leaves the door open for prospects in the minors, both short and long term. The development of the position players projected to start in AAA (Horowitz, Orelvis, Barger, Palmegiani, Jimenez, maybe Roden) will be crucial this season.

That BA report on Barger gave me the same conclusion.

If the Jays had just signed KK and Turner, and were still shopping for a 3B option, then I think the outlook on the off season would be dramatically different. Still underwhelming but no where near the doom and gloom. Knowing that there is a very good chance that a 80-85 wRC+ player will start at 3B is not only depressing in itself, but it now makes the KK/Turner signings less impactful because they don't compensate for how bad IKF figures to be with the bat. It just drags everything down. Otherwise I agree, the Jays did the sensible thing this winter by going with short term options. Gives them flexibility to spend on higher end talent next winter, which I hope is the plan. Whether it pushes the 2024 team to where it needs to be remains to be seen.

Yeah this doesn't sound like good news for the Jays or AL East. Angelos ownership was the one bright spot to Baltimore's rise as it meant they were going to cheap out on everything.

IKF career as a 3B according to Fangraphs: 2.6 WAR, 143 G, 559 PA, 85 wRC+ I think absolute best case scenario as a semi full time 3B, he's a 2 WAR player. I'd go with the under on that one as he will no doubt play other positions where he's not as good defensively, but I expect the bat to be around that. He seemed to change his approach last season to improve exit velocity so maybe they can squeeze a bit more juice of his bat hopefully, but I wouldn't want to count on that. I also don't expect Turner to play much 3B, if at all. I think we are all going to be praying that one of the prospects in AAA hits the crap out of the ball in ST and wins the job. Wishful thinking maybe, but that would salvage this off season a bit to me.

That’s the way it comes off to me as well. Everyone else either wanted to play elsewhere or wanted multi years and/or more money. The Jays clearly wanted a one year deal at a specific price point, and Turner was the only one who would take it. I am firmly in the underwhelmed category as well but it’s really due to one signing. I wasn’t a fan of bringing KK back as he’s a redundant fit next to Varsho, and I’m not thrilled with having to hope a 39 year old remains good, but I can at least rationalize both of those signings. A two year deal for a 80 wRC+ player who might end up with 500 PA next season is dragging the rest of it down. If Barger ends up winning the 3B spot then that instantly makes the off season more palatable but I think it’s more likely to be IKF/Biggio at 3B, and KK/Turner doesn’t compensate for that.

That's more than I expected Turner to get, but it's possible the other DH options either didn't want to come to Toronto, wanted multi year deals, or both. Seems like the Jays wanted to maintain flexibility and not get tied down to longer term deals this winter. Probably the smart move in the long run, but not sure how high it raises the ceiling for the 2024 team. Turner is 39 and could easily fall off a cliff in 2024. We have to hope he has one more good year left in him. I think they might pair this signing with a smaller bench signing now, someone like Michael A Taylor or something.

If a Chapman signing doesn't happen, then I'd be shocked if IKF isn't the starting 3B. Last season Davis Schneider hit like prime Barry Bonds for a month and not only were they still reluctant to play him, but they also couldn't wait to bench him once he started to regress. Expecting them to trust Barger out of ST to handle 3B is probably a pipe dream, but I'd love to be wrong about that. Orelvis seems like a butcher at 3B based on some reports, but Barger might have a shot at being passable there. A LHB with power is exactly what the Jays need, so if they could find that internally in a position of real need, then it would be a best case scenario.

If the Jays are waiting for someone's price to fall, then it's more likely to be Chapman than Bellinger, IMO.

The Jays had the same OF last season but opted to go with Nathan Lukes as the 4th OF (and proceeded to never use him). I guess Merrifield was seen as the 4th OF, and now Schneider might be used in that 2B/LF hybrid role. I think the Jays should try to get a lefty mashing 4th OF (not Grichuk), but I think a DH might just be it barring a trade.

If he signed that deal with the Jays, he would have triggered that player option by July.

It's definitely the Bally deal holding things up. Local TV revenue is huge for teams and not knowing how much of that they are going to see in 2024-beyond is going to impact how they spend. Unfortunately the top players are Boras guys, otherwise a team like the Jays might have been able to benefit like they did in 2020-21 when they signed Springer and Semien (who didn't become a Boras guy until after the 2021 season) when 90% of the teams sat out the off-season. As far as who the Jays end up with, I think it will be one FA signing (Soler or JDM). Maybe there is a trade that becomes available to them but I think it's far more likely they add a DH and roll with IKF at 3B.

I also wonder what this does to Soler's asking price. There is more supply than demand in the DH market, and now one of Soler's biggest suitors (allegedly) has moved on. My guess is that Soler was holding out for an extra guaranteed year from what was being offered to him. Not sure he has that leverage anymore, but who knows.

If the Soler market was down to the Jays and D-Backs like rumored, then this clears things up a bit.

Hoskins signs with the Brewers according to Passan. 2/34 with an opt out after year 1. So there’s finally some movement on the DH front.

Rosenthal has definitely slipped. Right now Passan is by far the best source (he’s the Woj/Shams of MLB), and I think I’d put Murray 2nd at this point from a trustworthiness standpoint. He’s not as well known and he’s not breaking the bigger signings yet but I think he will get there soon. Everyone else you just kinda take with a grain of salt. Yeah, Soler adds the type of power that this team (and org in general) needs. Even at his worst he will likely put up a .200 plus ISO. The Jays are banking on internal improvement but after settling on KK/IKF for two important starting spots, they badly need someone who can hit 30+ HR.

Murray, unlike Morosi/Heyman/etc, is reliable, so there's probably some validity to this. Rosenthal reiterated in his latest article that Joc is "thought to prefer the West Coast". I think the Soler interest is real. He's likely the best DH bat out there all things considered (age, upside), though he also comes with risk.

The team clearly isn’t strapped for cash (the IKF contract proves that) but there is going to be a limit somewhere. In a market where 90% of the free agents will still be available in February, I’d rather have $6m freed up with Garcia moved for something useful when the pen has enough depth to compensate. Ideally they don’t sign IKF and have $7.5m freed up but given the state of the 3B market, maybe that wouldn’t make much of a difference. I agree that absorbing contracts from teams involved the regional sports network bankruptcy is the best play here but there still isn’t any clarity on what the future holds there so teams aren’t doing anything yet.