Key22

These guys aren't great but they do ask a question as to why the Jays keep Biggio in the line-up when he is just so so SOOOOO bad. He's been given ample opportunities and they show some in-depth numbers on his hitting and he is truly abysmal.

I know large chunks of the league have a lot of respect for her ability - and Miami is a tough gig. I think the issue always is - who do you hire - if it is anyone with experience chances are they were booted out of their prior organization and usually the fans were irate that it took so long to get fired. So experienced GM mostly always means they were canned. If you hire someone from within the organization - it's probably going to be more of the same. The only reason I mention Ng is because she left over the situation she was in - she already turned down the Red Sox I believe - so it seems like she wants to be in charge and not have to answer to a bunch of dumbasses. Thus, Ng in Toronto - she'd probably have to be President and GM. Women always do the work of two for half the salary - We're saving Rogers money already

If they do decide to sell - do you trust that Atkins is the right man for the job? The reality is I don't think Shapiro will fire him as they have worked for years in Cleveland and now for years here - they're probably best buddies. Shapiro isn't going anywhere - the brass likes what he has done with the facilities. So I think the only way Atkins goes is if Shapiro also goes. But if I am wrong and Shapiro does fire Atkins - who do they hire - presumably you would want someone like Kim Ng - someone from outside the organization so they have a free hand to revamp the entire organization. An outsider GM can fire the entire coaching staff (except Pete Walker who seems immune). She could also trade pretty much anyone/everyone. The reality is this team was never going to beat anyone good in the playoffs - at best they're a "barely make the wild card" sort of club - as they were last year. I wish there was draft pick trading in MLB - it would make it more interesting.

I really wanted the Jays to sign Hicks instead of Green - only $2m more per year (granted two more years) but he is younger. It also kind of hurts in hindsight too when you see what Hicks has been doing.

If the Jays do fire Atkins - who is the new hire? Kim Ng - You know how the Jays like Optics. I think you would want someone from outside the organization to take over. Then she would be able to can the manager and hire someone new. Shapiro can be somewhat shielded because his job apparently isn't related to signing free agents and drafting - his job is the business side of things, stadium renovation and spring training facilities and that sort of thing. To be fair - the free agent class this year was absolutely ABYSMAL. It was basically Ohtani or not much of anything. I mean Turner looks to be a pretty good signing. Chapman and his 81+ OPS (.619OPS) isn't exactly someone who would have helped. At the end of the day - there is only so much you can do as manager or GM - on paper they should be better than this. Varsho has a 1.9 WAR so far Lourdes has a 0.3 WAR so far Moreno has a 0.5 WAR so far Combined 0.8 WAR So even that trade right now isn't looking too bad when you consider that the Jays are paying very little for Varsho. Unfortunately, I don't think anyone would think that Springer would fall off a cliff so fast - or that Bo would be this terrible for so long. Or that the bullpen would completely s*** the bed coming off a strong season last year - with pretty much all the same guys back.

The problem with blowing it up is that the only guys worth anything would make this a 50 win team. No one will give you anything for Vladdy or Springer - the latter is now a Vernon Wells albatross (I am still amazed that AA managed to trade Wells - that was maybe his best move as a GM. We are stuck with 3 years and $24 million a year for 2025 and 2026 for a 4th outfielder - he should be in the 9-hole at this point in his career. Vlad Guerrero is a non-tender candidate at this point so just not paying him $24 million or whatever is a win next year. Atkins's best move was not signing him to a 10-year $300m contract the media was clamouring for a few years back - he dodged a big bullet there - so let's credit the Jays brass for being able to see a turd when no one else did. I think the Jays could trade Kikuchi, Berrios, Gauzman, Bassit (assuming he rebounds) along with Romano, Mayza, Garcia - no point in having a closer if you're going to blow it up anyway. Then you could also trade Jansen since he is going to be a free agent. However I'd like to keep him to rebuild with a new young pitching core. Of course, you would also trade Bichette if he gets on track to maximize his return You should be able to get a pretty elite return for that group and also a good chunk of depth. The turnaround may not take that long as by next year Barger/Orelvis Martinez, Varsho/ Schneider/Clement would to go along with 4-5 good players in the haul you get back from the trades. Also, you can replace players in the offseason - if you spend the money you would have spent on Vlad/Bo - with a good deep free agent class you can certainly get a good defensive shortstop and a big bat at first base who can do better than a 0.2 WAR. Also use your financial might and offer Soto a $650 million contract - force the Mets and Yankees to overspend if nothing else. The Jays are going to need another WAMCO if they want to win. The weakest of that group is better than anyone on our team. Oops forgot Turner - the best hitter on the team - any team in a playoff hunt needing a bat would surely like him with all his experience. So you'd probably land a pretty good prospect for him.

As an aside - Shatkins might deserve some credit for recognizing talent - with all the media and prospect hype with Vladdy - He's going to definitely 100% be a hall of fame - generational talent - walks more than he strikes out - the next Hank Aaron - #1 prospect in all of baseball - the Jays better sign him ASAP or he'll make his $500m someplace else - Yeah - Shatkins was like "mmm - not so sure about that - let's wait and see" - Sometimes it's the deals you don't make that shows whether you're a decent GM - avoiding a big contract 10 year $300m+ contract for Vlad may be the best deal they ever made.

What if Orelvis Martinez comes up here and clubs the ball like the next Carlos Delgado - you could probably move him over to first base - release Vogelburgers and non-tender Vladdy and his 0.1WAR saving you $25 million that you can add to the $25 million next year. That money can be earmarked for Soto who you'll need to pay $50m a year and 12 years ($600m) - minimum. That might be light since the Yankees are going to want him so whatever the Yankees offer the Jays would need to offer at least $100m MORE for him to leave the bright lights and a line-up with protection in New York (which the Jays don't have). Being a big star in New York is a little more exciting than in small-time Toronto.

The guy has over 100,000 posts on this forum alone. Think about that.

Seems even the Jays could have signed him for like 84/4 no? Next year we need a replacement for Kikuchi.

Salary dump - hey now we have a roster spot free for Jordan Montgomery.

Yeah that's a tough trade to look at now - Frasso is ranked #2 in the Dodgers system and 80th overall. Mitch White - is a --- body --- probably won't be a 'some' and more like a 'no' body. The Dodgers generally don't screw up - they have the best front office talent and play money ball but with the most money. So when you engage in a trade with them - you are probably going to lose. Indeed, I had the idea of trading Bo Bichette to the Dodgers who are unhappy with Gavin Lux at SS and who would like an upgrade and put Betts back to his main position. My reasoning was that if the Jays stink ( a real good chance) and if Bo doesn't want to resign here - we could give the "win now" Dogers a package To Dodgers: Bo Bichette Yimi Garcia Tim Mayza KK Yusei Kikuchi (Jays pick up the remaining salaries of Garcia, Mayza, Kikuchi, Garcia) To Jays Gavin Lux (SS/2B LF) Dalton Rushing (#75 overall #1 in Dodgers system) C/1b Andy Pages OF (#3 in Dodgers system) River Ryan (RHP (#5 in Dodger's system) Trey Sweeney SS (#22 in Dodger's system) If the Jays are out of it by the break - it's time to sell and start considering a new batch of players with a new "core". The problem is - trading with the Dodgers means we give them studs and we get middling players back. If the Jays stink it up this year - apparently Cora will be looking for a new managing job. He is considered one of the elite managers so might be worth considering...

I was reading that this may have to do with minor league opt-outs - Votto has an opt-out given his last contract, which is some period (maybe a week or two) before spring training. However, this may not apply to Vogelbach. Thus, the Jays may be able to stash Vogelback in the minors as depth while seeing what Votto can do. The team is in dire need of power and I could give a s*** how Vogelback looks - Bringing that guy off the bench as a pinch hitter gives you some sort of hope for a bomb late in a game. The guy is solid insurance for injuries and his 2022 numbers - Vogelbach 2023 = .339 OBP and .404 SLG 2022 = .360 OBP and .433 SLG Turner 2023 = .345 OBP and .455 SLG. 2022 = .350 OBP and .438 SLG Pretty similar and for a bat-only DH/Pinch hitter - Vogelbach is quite respectable - can take a walk and can hit doubles/homers. 2021 Votto is better than both of these guys and he's definitely worth a shot if the last 2 years were injury-related and not age-related. It's also nice to see Nathan Lukes playing very well here this spring so far. They're going to need all the depth they can get and all the offence they can get. And watching Vogelback charge Cole when Cole drills him will be something.

Luxury tax issues now if they sign Bellinger. But if he is willing to take deferred money to lower the tax hit and also willing to take an incentive-laden deal then you can 'overpay' in the perception department as Ohtani's deal initially looked. $700m but mid $450m range in today's dollars. The Jays seem to be willing to do oddball contracts like Chad Green. Bellinger's offensive metrics were atrocious apparently while his traditional numbers looked good. Every team can see the same numbers and I don't see anyone giving him the 200million Boras wants. I'd be surprised at 100/5. Look at Springer. 3 more years of a guy who looked pretty awful. Our new Vernon Wells. AA managed to dump that contract. I am no so confident in Atkins abilities.

A lot of successful overweight pitchers: CC Sabathia, Bartolo Colon, David Wells, Babe Ruth, Jordan Montgomery... Manoah's problem seemed to be that he had no control on his slider and his fastball at 93 to 94 was not good enough to make up for that lack of command. And he doesn't seem to have an effective third pitch. Gausman's problem too is that he is basically a 2 pitch starter and if his splitter isn't great it won't be a good start.

If the Jays are out of it by the deadline, can you see them trading Vlad if he is putting up strong numbers?

Does anyone know what the Tidemann timeline is right now? He is expected to get his coffee the second half of this year or is he more viewed as a 2025 call-up?

But the reason they traded Teo was because they were supposedly going for a "balanced line-up" as in acquiring some big left-handed hitters. They signed Belt and KK - that didn't help too much (and we lost a big righty bat). They never got the big lefty bat. Now it's another offseason and we have lost Belt and we still don't have that "BIG" lefty bat. As a team, we are far "worse" right now than we were at the end of last season. We are down Belt, Chapman, and 2-hit Whit, and you can sort of include Ryu as he was effective when he was healthy. Ryu is a known commodity - the Cuban kid isn't. I suppose IKF is the Whit replacement but that's a downgrade offensively. Belt was probably our best hitter after Bo. Still plenty of time left in the off-season but it's not looking too exciting. Maybe they feel Horwitz can replace Belt and Davis Schneider is going to be a monster?

Well I think we're stuck with him. In no universe should the Jays dole out $150m/5 to Chapman. If our current core of players keep hitting like absolute shyte then we're not going anywhere anyway. So it's tough to get a free agent when all the free agents are mediocre and cost too much. And since we have a bottom 5 farm system if we do make a trade to land a "star" player who can actually help the team - not mediocrities like a Chapman but an actual star - who is controllable for 3 years - that's going to start without top 3 prospects + and then we have nothing after that to trade. So they'll probably sign one of the mediocrities on the FA market for 1-2 years - the 2nd year is the Canadian tax and hope Springer can actually get around on 95mph fastballs - but I don't know too many people who have better hand eye coordination as they get older. The positive is I am a pitching and defense kind of a guy and The Jays look like one of the best teams in all of baseball when it comes to pitching and defence. I mean LAA had Trout and Ohtani and never won s*** in an easier division. So I'll take pitching.

It's just such a letdown when we were supposedly in on Ohtani to look at this big pile of Meh. But in the end, the guys we have have to perform better offensively - you can't have 2 WAR from Vladdy. And we can't replace every one. It's hard for Shatkins to do much when you have so many underperforming players: Vlad, Springer, Daulton, Kirk and Jansen always being hurt. The Boras clients are asking crazy length and dollars - the tier down - none of that lot is exactly going to scare Baltimore, NYY, LAD. If you want to win you need some big thumpers and this team doesn't have that. It's a shame - with our pitching you really kind of miss those days with Bautista/EE/Donaldson to strike some fear in the opposing pitcher. This lineup has exactly no one you worry about as an opposing pitcher other than Bo Bichette and he's not a massive power threat. Soler probably makes the most sense but then why did they trade Teo away in the first place if they are just getting another right-handed power bat with even worse defensive value?

IKF is our third baseman - GG defensive quality player at third - can't hit but then Chapman wasn't exactly a force at the plate.

Well the Jays won 89 games last year so I am not sure why anyone would make the leap that next year will be better? I mean Belt was arguably the second best hitter on the team - he's gone and has not been replaced. Two-hit Whit is gone and he was one of the more reliable players for most of the year. He's gone and has not been replaced by a superior player. Chapman is an elite defender and a reasonable hitter and he has not been replaced. I am not sure how you take out three regulars - replace them with nobody and get better results? Perhaps they feel other AL East teams have gotten worse which will give the Jays a better shot to win. The Jays have also had no real injuries to any of the starters or critical relievers. I call it like I see it - I see a team if healthy is a top 5 rotation (top 2-3 if Manoah pitches like a CY Young candidate). We have an excellent overall bullpen. Probably top 5-10 there - it's deep - we have a couple of guys who can close. We have arguably the best outfield defence in the game. Two very solid catchers on both sides of the ball. And we have money. The Jays are said to be front runners for Soler - that sort of bat solves a lot of problems - be nice if he hit left but maybe you bring back Belt for a platoon. Maybe Schneider is the real deal - and is one of these out of nowhere all-star calibre players for the next decade+.

Well Baltimore had a string of top 5 draft picks and hit on them - the Jays generally don't hit and they choose in the bottom tier of the first round - so Baltimore has a lot better talent coming into their system - Tampa trades everyone to replenish their system. And maybe their draft and development team is simply a lot better than ours. So we are struck trying to fix everything with cash. Our biggest need is offense but no one in free agency really will fix that problem (except Ohtani). You don't want albatross contracts like Bellinger and we have one of the very worst farm systems in all of baseball - ranked bottom 5 - so basically to have any offensive upgrade we probably have to include Ricky Tidemann and Barger and Martinez and that still would not get you any "star bat." TBH = I think the Jays are a bit of a mess - you have players who hugely underperformed last season and Shatkins is hoping they all rebound. If Vlad really is the 2 WAR player he was last year going forward - then he's basically a bust. He's been getting worse 3 years in a row - his great season was when he was largely hitting in AAA ballparks and the league hadn't figured him out. Bichette isn't a particularly good shortstop defensively - maybe he is a Derek Jeter type - I can live with that but do we really want to pay him the $360m-$400m it's going to take to keep him? They have no real hitters coming from the minors - they have maybe 2 pitchers - and they're already spending over the luxury tax to field an 80-87-win team. I am not sure how they fix it - if the best player you can get is someone who strengthens a strength - I guess you have to do that - maybe the brass is thinking that they can't address the offense so let's make the pitching even better - pitching wins - at least enough to maybe get into the wild card. It's not a bad idea - first step is to make the playoffs and then anything can happen - no one was exactly predicting an Arizona/Texas World Series when the year started. As we sit now - the Jays do look like the frontrunner to finish third in the division ahead of Boston and Tampa - might be enough to make the playoffs. Then pray.

It's a similar deal to Jordan Hicks - Yariel will get the chance to start until he proves that he can't. 4/32 versus 4/44 with incentives. I think the Jays could have met the Giants' price but perhaps they look at Yariel as offering the same sort of value for maybe $16m fewer dollars. He is a bit of backup insurance in case Manoah is done. If he performs well - he is a replacement for Kikuchi when he leaves next year or a replacement for Garcia when he leaves next year.

I think the Jays are in a tough spot - there is no one you really want to sign out there who will become an albatross the second they sign the player. $200m to Snell or Bellinger? Really? Montgomery is solid but you're probably looking at $150/5 minimum and he doesn't excite me. No one else really moves the needle - Chapman is a defence first player - on a good team he'd bat 8th and that would be ok. I think the Jays just tread water for 2024 - they still need to see what Vladdy is - is he a 2 WAR player or an MVP-type player? If the Jays flounder - they have an excise and probably a need to blow it up and start again.