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BigCecil

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Everything posted by BigCecil

  1. BigCecil
    Agree with all this. At the end of the day though, its a small sample size regardless, and when we see more we will know more. Brett Lawrie had a 157 wRC+ over his first 171 PAs.
  2. BigCecil
    Not worth concerning ourselves much with Schneider. Soon enough all will be revealed, if he is a flash in the pan or V 2.0 Dan Uggla. They can't bank on him, but he is a nice potential upside chip to hold and work in over the Spring and start of '24.
  3. BigCecil
    I don't think this FO wants to put all the chips in on '25 with 1/2 big signings especially in Bo & Vlad walk year, if still here. OTOH maybe it soothes the fan base in replacing that core. ATL pulled that off with Swanson and Freeman walking after a WS ring. But you are right that the FO have been both good, and lucky, at adding WAR on 1 year stop gap deals.
  4. BigCecil
    Part of the challenge in signing Bellinger is we will be paying for his CF value, when we need to play Varsho in CF to get more than 2 WAR out of him. I guess if the AAV/Term is big enough Bellinger will play either corner and be happy about it. He better f***ing mash. Lots of risk and a total window move.
  5. BigCecil
    The strangest thing about Matt Chapman is his elite 94th percentile chase rate. The complete opposite of Teo. He just swings and misses way way too many pitches in the zone at a horrendous whiff rate. If he can ever fix that he will go off.
  6. BigCecil
    I just listened to Eno Sarris analysis on Teo. It was the opposite of this FWIW. In essence he said his high chase, low BB, high whiff hitting profile ages the worst of any. Having said that for a 2 year deal with a 3rd on club option I'd love to see him back. Power is elite and I think he will make some adjustments to stay impactful in the game.
  7. BigCecil
    3/42M for LGJ. About what I expected. Nice pay day for him.
  8. BigCecil
    Sold! Unfortunately that has 0 chance of happening for Belly. For Chapman I could see a pillow deal for that $ or more, depending on how his market emerges, but still very unlikely.
  9. BigCecil
    Interesting. Need to look into that. Got a link to share? When we catered the RC in the later 90’s post World Series wins we went from 180 boxes sold to 7. It was carnage.
  10. BigCecil
    Kind of the s*** place you could get boxed into if you want to compete if you: - Haven't extended your younger best players under market. - Carry 3/75 on Springer. Others FA's marching to back end of their deals. - Traded most of your top prospects and your farm is ranked 20-23rd. - Traded your top prospect for a glove and now need offense (and a 3B). - Your best young developed arm falls off a cliff and uncertain what '24 brings. - Didn't land either of the 2 most impacting players in baseball this off season. - Have a rotation unlikely to be as healthy as '23, so increased offense (and D) could be pivotal. - Haven't developed like you hoped and not enough of your picks have hit. - Your era super stars you were banking on, walk after 2 seasons without a deal, that will cost a boatload. - Just spent a hundreds of millions on renos and raised ticket prices - in a country thats predominantly a hockey market - and you need Corp $ to flow at the RC. Bah humbug.
  11. BigCecil
    Interesting just listened to Jim Bowden Ohtani signing analysis FWIW: - Said he "knows" for certain LAD upped their offer last Friday. - Jays would have landed him if LAD didn't step up. So it was real but the LAD were always going to step up. - Said Jays were used in negotiation to drive up $ in the deal, but not in a pejorative manner. Its just business. (Agree with that take) - Said we should get Chappy, Belly and Hoskins and just go for it. Guesses 7/181 for Belly (Covid and shoulder injury really hurt him as LAD) - Said our Farms too weak to deal into enough improvement. "Have to play checkbook baseball". And don't trade Manoah - value too low.
  12. BigCecil
    Bo is going to Free Agency unless we massively overpay 100%, and Vlad is an enigma. I'm ready to move on from either or both for the right opportunity (s). 4.8 combined WAR in 2023, most of that from Bo, doesn't scream superstar giant contract(s). 2024 is a big year for them and our org.
  13. BigCecil
    You have hit on a key point that will be very interesting to watch as a fan. Money for what Ohtani brings as a unicorn is one thing for Rogers. Nobody else comes close from a marketing/keep Corp money flowing into newly renovated stadium perspective to justify ticket prices increases. Will this be a completely anomalous Rogers move, or will they make a big push (s) that moves away from focus on the Bo/Vlad era?
  14. BigCecil
    Gawd. I had blocked that trauma out.
  15. BigCecil
    Hope so. Being in shape doesn’t guarantee great results, but it will sure give them a better chance to get them.
  16. BigCecil
    Yes. But you could say that about a lot of team’s farms. It’s all relative. These are just the apples to apples comparison facts at a point in time and projecting ahead through the 2024 season, anticipating teams prospects potential movement. It’s ESPN view and rankings only.
  17. BigCecil
    No kidding. Was just listening to ESPN Farm/Prospect update. On an apples to apples relative basis the Jays farm ranked 20-23. With Tiedemann dealt or graduated to Jays we move to 25th ish. If and when Martinez comes up or dealt we are bottom 3-4.
  18. BigCecil
    Both you and Jim are right I think. With the exchange rate delta, LAD geographic proximity to Japan, winning record, elite farm, we would have had to massively overpay. Ownership wanted him and made a big overture, but even for Rogers there are financial viability limits. Technically we had a chance, but kind of like a Dumb and Dumber chance. We ended being a straw man to help up the LAD offer. I am still glad we took a shot.
  19. BigCecil
    Agree on Bellinger and Chappy. We have a CF and 1B. I guess you can move Bellinger to corner OF but it reduces part of the potential CF D value you are paying for. Fools Gold at the AAV and term they will likely command. I think its more likely Chappy is back than Bellinger comes to TOR. For all the FA buzz around Bellinger, Brandon Belt had a higher wRC+ than Belly in 2023 for 1/9.
  20. BigCecil
    We don't really know that it was a legit shot. He went to the facility. So did Liam Hendriks when he was a FA. There was tons of speculation, and a lot of ******** even from so called trusted sources. Pie charts of probabilities odds etc. Rogers execs wanted him and made, for them, a big push. Props to them. But for all of any of us really know, his Agent was just setting up negotiating straw man (other teams were probably a part of it too) to up the amount of an LAD eventual deal. And it worked. We'll can only surmise.
  21. BigCecil
    Might turn out to be blessing in disguise on the field long term, but sooo hard not to salivate over how exciting at least a few years would be at the RC.
  22. BigCecil
    Watching my son practicing today at Webber Baseball Academy beside Chris Reitsma and Mike Soroka, who were doing loss toss, and chatting away with the young players never gets old. My son doesn't know how lucky he is to have that kind of experience in Calgary on a December day. Soroka looks great...says he is healthy anyway.
  23. BigCecil
    Rogers just got outbid. They made a push but didn’t work out. Long term could be for the best on the field. We”ll never know. On to the blue collar off season.
  24. BigCecil
    Unless there is a colossal f up over some unexpected issue Ohtani will be a Jay. Its a Rogers Exec led push as a conglomerate media company. We benefit.
  25. BigCecil
    If this gets closed I see the value of the deal in protecting the reno and development facility investments. Its an argument to justify the ticket price increases. It can make business sense. On the field it immediately adds what we needed offensively and there is no doubt for a few years at least it could help propel us to some great seasons, and some playoff success. Any way you slice it, it will be incredibly exciting. Given he is 30 already (as we watch Springer's apparent aging curve decline - TBD) and his arm injury history I do think about the Miggy and Pujols endless end of career tour 0 WAR expensive seasons and cringe. If we win another WS ring, we likely all won't give a s***, and it will all be worth it. #FlagsFlyForever
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