BigCecil

The Jays turned a roster full of promise into...... CATHAL KELLY Published Yesterday If you’re trying to figure out how to wring a few more bucks out of your boss, I have an idea – the Toronto Blue Jays. Maybe drop by her office before heading out on a Friday afternoon and mention in passing that the Blue Jays are looking for a whatever-it-is-you-do-for-a-living. That is how you become the first associate in the firm’s history to make $35-million a year. Using the Jays as a stalking horse sounds unethical, but it can’t be because everyone in baseball does it. Shohei Ohtani did it last year. Juan Soto did it a couple of weeks ago. Corbin Burnes did it this weekend. For weeks, the baseball rumour mill was filled with stories that Burnes – a 2021 Cy Young winner – was close to choosing Toronto. Burnes grew up in Bakersfield, Calif., has a house in Scottsdale, Ariz., and was looking to join a contender. I’m sure he was dying to join the last-place Blue Jays, who can’t even sign their current stars, never mind new ones, and are just a hop, a skip and a five-hour flight from home. Burnes picked Arizona. The Diamondbacks reportedly offered less money (six years, US$210-million), but with Canadian taxes, it ends up being more. It’s the most Arizona has ever paid anyone. It plays in what’s becoming the toughest division in baseball. This was not a value proposition. But with the Jays standing on a street corner waving around a novelty cheque, Arizona didn’t have much choice. Whatever percentage Burnes pays his agent, he should cut Jays GM Ross Atkins in for a little taste as well.Burnes was the last difference-making free-agent on the board, and this feels like the end. The end of the off-season, certainly. Having spent so much time begging Soto, and then begging Burnes, the Jays leadership can now start begging Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Once that blows up on them, they can shuffle over on their knees to Bo Bichette. Eventually, they’ll be begging Edward Rogers. As currently constituted, the Jays have zero chance in the American League East. New York stayed about the same, Boston got a lot better, the Orioles are desperate and Tampa is seldom bad two years in a row. If it were possible for Toronto to finish sixth, that’s where I’d put my money. If it’s the end of a competitive moment, it’s also the end of an era. That era was one in which the Blue Jays convinced themselves they really mattered by saying it out loud over and over again. The foundation was there, but the Jays never managed to get it set. Good teams sign their young stars before they have convinced themselves they’re worth more than whatever you’re offering. It’s called player development. The Jays never shut up about how great theirs is. But their two biggest names have already rendered their verdict on the club – they would rather leave. Throw the mismanagement of starter Alek Manoah onto this pile. Having not spent money underpinning their structure, the Jays also neglected to hire the right contractors to finish the rest of the house. How many of the free agents signed in recent years have turned out? Hyun-Jin Ryu – bust. George Springer – bust. Justin Turner – bust. Marcus Semien – bust (because they got him and then let him go). The only big free-agent signing that’s an overall win is Kevin Gausman. Every year that guy looks a little closer to popping his lid whenever he talks about the state of the organization. Gausman knows he got sold a bridge to nowhere. The Jays would like people to believe this is about money and taxes. That they’re not to blame and subsidized health care is. It isn’t and they are. You can win in a backwater. Tampa does it. Arlington does it. Cleveland does it. Milwaukee has been doing it for a few years. You think any pro athlete grows up dreaming about living in Milwaukee? Do you think the Brewers have ever swaggered into a pitch meeting, ever? Milwaukee can’t be big, so it has to be smart. Toronto failed at being big, and it wasn’t smart to begin with. It should have been obvious how this would end. The Jays inherited a roster full of promise at a time when any team with two pitchers and a DH can make the post-season. They turned that into no playoff victories. But, hey, the seats right behind home plate are a couple of inches wider now. I guess that’s a win. The best thing about everything being in a state of imminent collapse is that there’s no rush to start rebuilding. It’s going to take the rest of the year at least to clear off the debris. Whoever is tasked with cleaning up, the first thing they will need to do is resist the urge to bang on about “a team for a whole country.” It makes about as much sense as the Atlanta Braves crowing about being “a team for a whole state.” If you squint, it’s possible to convince yourself that Toronto is a big deal in global terms. It is not a big deal in baseball terms. Several prominent baseball players just told us that. In 10 years, that’s the greatest service that Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro have done for their temporary home. When they arrived, we were beginning to think that we were a hot number. That everybody wanted in on this. As they prepare to leave, Toronto is reminded of its place. This city is best suited to the role of scrappy up-and-comer. It’s taken the professional failure of a couple of not-so-smooth operators from abroad to remind us of that.

The old Toronto Blue Jays order is changing with Mark Shapiro in charge Mark Shapiro is in charge — of everything. That’s what he was hired to do and what he relishes. And that’s what brought him to town John Lott - Nov 04, 2015 TORONTO – Mark Shapiro had to know he was making history. He signed on to do just that. But he probably had no idea that he is the first president and CEO of the Toronto Blue Jays to spend most of his day talking with the media about purely baseball decisions – trades, the farm system, free agents and the like. Traditionally, the Blue Jays president doesn’t do that. He leaves it to his general manager – think Gillick, Ash, Ricciardi and Anthopoulos – to be the face of the front office for fans. The freshly retired Paul Beeston did it that way during his two long terms as president, as did those before him. But for a franchise about to enter its 40th year, the old order is changing. Shapiro is in charge — of everything. That’s what he was hired to do and what he relishes. And that’s what brought him to town, for his first day on the job, as the target of disillusioned, delusional fans who believe he ran the lately beloved GM Alex Anthopoulos out of town. Shapiro denied that. He said he had hoped to “partner with” the departed GM. But as he spun smart and smooth and silver-tongued, he also made it clear that he is a baseball man, that he has high expectations for the baseball people in his employ, and that baseball decisions will require his stamp of approval. He also made something else clear: He will weather the hero-villain narrative perpetuated in some quarters, focus on building on the “incredible foundation” that Anthopoulos built and caulk up the cracks in the farm system that last summer’s big trades created. The Blue Jays, he said, have the pieces in place to win the World Series next year. His goal: to say that, with honesty, entering every season. Shapiro intimated that he is no autocrat. He will build “an inclusive, collective culture,” as he did in Cleveland, first as GM and then president, he said. By all accounts, that description of his Cleveland years is no exaggeration. A key component of his leadership credo is this: “Any energy spent on credit, any energy spent on blame, is inefficient. It’s wasted energy.” That might also serve as a memo to those Jays fans tossing darts at his effigy, although saying so also might be wasted energy. Then there was this: “A snapshot in time – even this snapshot in time – is just that. When you work in professional sports, it’s highly emotional. Any reaction to any moment in time usually leads to a bad decision, so you’re much better off taking an in-depth, broader look and perspective.” Therein, Shapiro was certainly not addressing the fans, but it is a useful message nonetheless. He was talking about considering a new job in Toronto at a time the Jays were still playing footsie with .500, before the Anthopoulos trades that served as a catapult to the post-season. He has been in baseball since 1991; he knew how quickly things change, so he made no early judgments about what he would do with the team he inherited. The Jays’ first half, and their playoff surge, were snapshots. Shapiro said he tries to keep both micro and macro in focus. “We’ll have an obsessive focus on winning, and on building a strong farm system,” he said. Those trades? Shapiro tried to sell the view that he liked them. He said he told Anthopoulos just that. From afar, he admitted, maybe it appeared the GM gave up too much of the future to win now. But when he looked at what David Price and Troy Tulowitzki and Ben Revere did for the team, he said he told Anthopoulos: “Man, you were right. What an incredible trade.” (He didn’t say which one.) Then, Shapiro said, he told Anthopoulos something else, something many have suggested was a rebuke, and perhaps that’s precisely what it was, or what Anthopoulos honestly believed it was. Shapiro said the Jays must start immediately to plug the holes left by trading 13 minor-league pitchers in less than a year. Some called it a “scolding.” Shapiro framed it as a message about balance and the team’s long-term security. “The short-term benefit of those trades is absolutely apparent and was tremendous. … At the same point, there are challenges that come with trading players and those challenges need to become part of a long-term strategy,” he said. However Shapiro delivered that message to Anthopoulos – and his choice of words might well have been less politic in the moment – his unease over the long term is clear. The cupboard may not be bare, but the pickings right now are slim. Anthopoulos seized the moment, and it gave the Jays and their fans a thrill they had not enjoyed in 22 seasons. Publicly, Shapiro applauded the moves and the results. He did not call it a Faustian bargain, but he might well have been thinking: if Price and Marco Estrada leave as free agents, it surely would be nice to have some rotation help ready at Triple-A. He looked, and saw none. Shapiro said his talks with Anthopoulos over the past few weeks focused almost exclusively on baseball matters. Anthopoulos did not want to talk about his contract, but Shapiro said he hoped the GM would stay, and expected him to stay. Ultimately, Anthopoulos said he was no longer a good “fit,” and quit. He refused to throw stones, praising Shapiro and ownership for treating him with respect. He left the rest to speculation, and the natural result was a narrative that cast him as Anthopoulos Scorned on the day he was named baseball’s top executive. Shapiro could hear the thunder all the way to Cleveland. He is no stranger to such derision. In 2002, his first year as Cleveland’s GM, he started to tear down a team that had gone to the playoffs six times in seven years (without winning a World Series.) He traded his ace, Bartolo Colon – yes, the same Bartolo Colon who pitched for the Mets in this year’s World Series – to the Montreal Expos for four young players. Three were named Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore, who went on to perform with some distinction. In the moment, Cleveland fans were not amused. But Shapiro lacked the payroll to keep his stars and knew he had to step back to move forward. “There was some pretty intense distaste and there were some pretty strong feelings,” Shapiro recalled. “I never look at it as, what does it mean for me? I always look at it as, is it the right thing to do, and how are you going to manage through it? How are you going to stay strong, stay focused, stay resolute and continue to get the job done?” As for the recent outcry over the departure of Anthopoulos, Shapiro replied: “I didn’t have any say in what created the circumstance, but it’s still the same response.” He will manage through it. So, it appears, will John Gibbons. Shapiro said he liked the way Gibbons, a close friend of Anthopoulos, managed the Jays in 2015. So the man they call Gibby – Shapiro repeatedly called him John – will be back. Under the unorthodox terms of his contract, that means Gibbons is guaranteed a paycheque through 2017. Another Anthopoulos confidante, Tony LaCava, will serve as interim GM. Shapiro knows LaCava well; in 2002, LaCava was a scout for Cleveland and advised Shapiro on that trade with Montreal, where LaCava had previously worked. During his news conference, a reporter opened a door for Shapirio to say LaCava would be a leading candidate for the permanent GM job. Shapiro did not walk through. Too early to talk about that, he said, but naturally, he has every confidence in LaCava for the short term. Last Thursday was the day for Anthopoulos to tell his story and deepen the mystery around it. An avalanche of speculation followed, much of it focusing on the alleged skulduggery of Shapiro and club owner Rogers Communications. The truth will likely never be known, because the truth in this story depends on the point of view of each party involved, and no single person knows all of it. Monday gave Shapiro his turn. Like all others in positions of power, he bobbed and weaved at times, leaving much to the imagination. Overall, he acquitted himself well, making a polite but tenacious effort to put distance between him and the Anthopoulos fiasco. The off-season, and spring training, and perhaps especially the start of next season, will determine how quickly that story will fade. But when he discussed his leadership philosophy, Shapiro may have unwittingly driven home another message for fans to ponder. “I don’t believe in blacks and whites,” he said. “It’s all living in the greys.”

Chappy 5.5 WAR + Adames 4.8 in 2024 with 59 jacks combined. If they can pull 10.3 WAR off again, or close to it, in 2025 thats a nice SS/3B duo for that side of the IF.

A LAD NYY World Series takes me back to being 12 in small town NS - 1977. My grandfather had leukemia. We used to walk slowly down to he common room with a black and white TV in the Hospital. There he would sit smoking his pipe while we watched Thurman Munson. Been watching baseball ever since. Imagine today someone puffing away on a pipe inside a Hospital lol. Now, I loathe both these teams but I think I'm going with LAD for Teo and the Unicorn.

Heard some BNS Sportsnet talk this am that I thought was interesting. Swanson $3.2M AAV in 2025 - figures he will likely be non tendered and offered ML deal. Swinging strike % and contact numbers vs him not worth the cost. Romano $8M AAV for 2025 - big tender/ non-tender decision to make with him coming off arm surgery. Yimi 6.5 off the books but Green $10.5M AAV chews up a lot of payroll space coming off mediocre season. The pen remake is going to be intriguing watch this off season.

Soto is a generational player.

f*** I love the baseball playoffs. Judge/Stanton bombs off Clase. Noel hammered that. Gimenez play at 2B on the GB. And a f***ing walk off. Power wins in the playoffs.

Jays had the highest % of revenue committed to payroll in 2024 (74%) 2nd highest to the Mets in all of baseball (87%) Jays are owned by a $29B market cap pubco, and Mets are owned by a crazy rich owner who can do whatever he wants. Rogers is going to spend in '25. No choice given all the investments they have made. But there are real limits. Its just business.

Been enjoying watching the playoffs and thinking a lot about our Jays for 25 and beyond. In ’23 there was a lot of push OTB to extend Bo and visceral anger towards Vlad. “Blame the players for underperforming – not the FO” theme etc Vlad took the brunt of it in a 1.3 WAR season. In ’24 the CW has shifted to a heightened sense we need to “build around” an extended Vlad at almost any cost. His 2 elite seasons have been pitched the norm, and the future, by his Agent and others. One could argue if you were going to extend either or both of them, Vlad should have been locked up in ’23 and Bo now – if the ownership truly always believed in their value long term. I realize in the 3rd WC era the playoffs are easier to make and it opens the door for Cinderella teams like DET or ARI to have a banger year and make playoff waves. Its tantalizing. Our inability to draft and develop well the last decade has forced us Jays fans into a lot of crazy talk. For me, with the current state of the team and the farm I’m not seduced by a wildcard in ’25. Its fools gold. I see the arguments OTB we are much better than the '24 record and players will bounce back or be as good or better - and we will check book baseball our way into plugging many holes. I can squint hard and see that take with the 3rd WC. Rogers/FO are leaning into it one more time. I just don't see it. As one fan, I would have rather we dealt Vlad at the 24 deadline for max value than overpay to keep him now and said so then. I’ve got some insight on the extensive asks. There is no hometown J-Ram ish deal discount on the table at this point. He is relatively young but the cost for him with his body type, position, seasonal inconsistency IMO opinion aren’t worth what he now wants. Why? Even though we are a luxury tax payroll big market team, this decision will impact future payroll roster construction decisions dramatically for a decade or more. Its not an infinite well of money. Big dead AAV money like Springer’s deal matters especially if you don't draft and develop well. I don’t care for the Statkins FO, but I agree with Mark’s reluctance to call Vlad a generational talent yet. He might become one - his EVs and xwOBAs have always been elite, but I don’t want Rogers to make an investment he won't overperform. Our biggest issue is the “waves” Shapiro promised in 2017 didn’t come. And they won’t for the foreseeable future unless we get inordinately lucky. Its reduced our options and boxed us into these “Vlad or bust” kind of pyrrhic arguments.

Probably been mentioned, but 2023's 1.3 WAR Vlad is the same guy who pre-emptively pronounced he would never play for the Yanks and then changed his tune to "its all business". Of course it is. His Agent is trolling for a f*** ton, and the only way we extend is if we pay for a deal he can never overperform. Its a huge bet for Rogers, and if they make it and this team rolls into post seasons with successes, its one they will happily live with. If not, it will impact payroll future roster construction decisions for a very long time. Thats why they make the big bucks.

Thought that Lindor deal was pretty bad, but 24 WAR in 4 seasons and now some post season heroics and memories for the fans. Looking not too bad right about now.

Quintana still throwing the goo. FIP beater this season. Thought his career might be over in '21, but still going. Wild playoffs so far! Loving it.

Teo shining under the bright lights. Good for him. What might have been for the Teo legend in TOR after his 2 HRs vs Robbie Ray in Game 2 vs SEA 2022. If only Tapia could actually catch a somewhat tough chance in the OF. I'll never understand why he was even out there.

Nice interview with Teo. He did an incredible job of holding back his disappointment in not being a Jay this season.

Does my heart good to see Cole get his tits lit. Crushing at bat from old man Gurriel.

Hoffman elite all season. Not today. Mets on a roll. Playoff baseball. You just never know. Ain’t over yet.

Wheeler stuff so far is popping and electric. Whiff machine.

The coalition still believing in this FO is down to AA haters, Statkins cult fart sniffers, Hopium smokers and a few apologists. If they make it through the off season, its show me time. Talk is cheap. Its only about results now - seats sold, eye balls watching and on the field performance convergence. They have been given a 3rd wildcard reprieve. The Jays lost the fewest games to injury in MLB in 2024 and won 74 games with a luxury tax payroll. The next fewest games lost to injury in MLB were the Tigers with 54 more. There really aren't any good excuses left. Every team deals with IL losses, under performers and over performers every year. The farm is bottom third to quarter depending on various rankings. Its just not good enough. We have become the old, expensive team other teams want to play.

Gausman spits truth: "I'm sick of all the 'talent' talk," Gausman told the Toronto Sun's Rob Longley this weekend. "We're so talented, this and that. We've got to start winning games. We've got to figure it out. We've got to do it quickly. I'm only getting older. (Fellow starter Chris) Bassitt is only getting older. If we want it to happen with this group, it has to happen soon. So what are we going to do?"

Relievers are volatile as f***, especially with a split, and it wasn't all back luck for Swanson in '25. Macko is still a lotto ticket. We'll see how he handles the arm injury. His tits got lit in Sept. There was an alternative universe where we extend Teo on the cheap in '22 as a "corner OF'er" (spits) but instead we went all in in Barrio breakup and viva la run prevention! But we have had this "debate" 10 million times. We digress lol.

Teo wRC+: 2020 = 142 2021 = 132 2022 = 129 2023 = 107 2024 = 133 The anomaly is 2023. I'm pretty confident that back to back in the order with Vlad this year he would have been fine - given thats who he hit beside in '20, '21 and '22.

This ownership has no choice with the money invested to date in the team payroll, development facilities and renos. They gonna spend. The "core" be burnin' years too. Down to 1.

We do pretty much agree. We just come at it from different perspectives. You are an unabashed optimist about the Jays and I am just disappointed in what I had hoped what was going to be the mantra/record of this FO vs what they have delivered. I'm so bitter and jaded I can't see straight anymore lol. Predominantly pissed about the drafting and development. We have a bottom third farm with an expensive old team that will match 2017(another year they dumped at the deadline so its apples to apples) Win totals, only in 2024 we have a luxury tax payroll. By an objective analysis (not that mine is anymore) they have been a failure.

I understand that bud and knew thats how you would respond if you did LOL. I get RA9. I'm just not a big fan of it. For a group that loves projections and predictive stats, it seems inconsistent to diminish the value of FIP, xERA and losing 2/9 Ks. His whiff and K rates are 15th and 22nd percentile. He gets hit hard on a relative basis. I don't think you can cherry pick out FIP related stats. Sames goes for xwOBA etc etc for hitters. Jose hasn't been bad I agree, but I do think he has been lucky. There is a reason he gives up plakatas by the bushel. I haven't looked at his stuff + and Sarris's work since like mid '24 but at the time there was a concerning distinct trend down year by year for Berrios. I'm also preemptive cringing on the guy as a result of above, since we have him through the 2028 season with a back end load on that deal. Hound is an issue but only for one more season at least. If they all stay healthy next year, and thats a big if, the 5 expected to be in the rotation is not bad. But holy f*** we need to put some runs up. Some of the D configurations being bandied about for 2025 give me the heebie jeebies. Vlad's 3rd percentile range at 3B, Bo SS, Horwitz 2B.....I'll stop there. That could possibly the worst MLB D Infield ever LOL. So much for the "run prevention" focus...not that that worked for us that well either.

Congrats to Teoscar on reaching a new career high in HRs (33) with a 133 wRC+ .231 ISO season. Pretty solid 1 year $20.4 AAV deal by LAD.