BigCecil

There is 100%. Nova Scotians could travel to watch the BoSox relatively easy. Lots of the fishermen I played baseball and softball with were huge BoSox fans. They loved YAZ and Fred Lynn. I never really was. I got into the Expos young - Rusty Staub and Jarry Park. It is why I'm a Bruins fan though. As a kid I used to listen to games on my am radio in bed. The radio waves would carry across the water in and out from Boston Garden. Orr and Espo, Bucyk etc. Its probably changed a lot with the media explosion. I left in '86.

We do for sure. But at the end of the day we need more than 4.8 combined WAR from Bo and Vlad, or our fish will go rotten no matter what we do.

Kirk is only a year older but the 1st and 3rd year comparison isn't great - lot smaller sample size for Moreno. Kirk's body type and weight is a real issue for performance and longevity. Isn't the only skill Kirk has a material advantage over Moreno framing? They are close on blocking. Pop time and throwing is no contest. Framing going to diminish in the value equation by 25-26 when they implement the robo ump appeal system on balls/strikes. AZ has Moreno until '29. Kirk's lack of speed is a significant negative with his contact bat - GIDP machine. But I agree with L54 C is not our biggest issue and Kirk is a good option - pretty much a lock for 2+ WAR. Hopefully he gets in better shape.

Who thinks he can't hit at all and is a lost cause. He has a 96 wRC+ over 1600 PAs. Thats just a fact. Could he add 25-30 points to his '23 bat with some adjustments & more luck? Sure. But you can cherry pick aspects of hitting profile and make this same case for lots of players in MLB. You can probably make the same case for Biggio, for example. Time will tell.

I think there are 2 times to truly evaluate a trade. At the time it is made and 2/4 years later. At the time this was made, if Varsho is a consistent 5 WAR player you can squint and see it make sense. But he crashed to 2.1 (same as LGJ). Moreno just turned 23 and was a top MLB prospect in a premium position that has +2 years control. Players can press hard after a trade and do worse or they can get a new team (the good ol' change of scenery narrative) and take off. I don't think there is any hard evidence thats supports anything conclusive in this area. You can point to examples of both cases easily across MLB. Putting Varsho in the 4 hole to start in the year, in retrospect, probably wasnt the wisest move for his confidence. I think most of would have rather moved Kirk but maybe that didn't get the trade done or our FO wanted to keep Kirk. We will never really know. I see the point you are trying to make but I dont know that the Scheider reference is logic analogous. Varsho is 27 already with 1600 PAs (3 full seasons) career 96 wRC+. Looks like more than a sophomore slump. Looks like this year was closer to to who he is at the plate than '22. His savant page is ugly offensively. He did hit a ball 113 this yr so the upside power tool is real. He just didn't do it enough. Could he be another Jose, Edwin and JD who improved their offensive numbers later in their careers? Yep. But thats hunting unicorns. I'd say there is just as much chance his D falls off as he ages. His sprint speed is 69th. His arm is 40th percentile. His jumps and reads are excellent. His D has to be elite to add value. I am looking forward to seeing him in CF all of '24 to see how he reacts, and if he can bounce back to a league avg or better bat. That would take him back up to 3-4 WAR and this trade would look better.

He has been unreal the last 2 post seasons and 17+ WAR the last 3 regular seasons. The guy is money.

Gives me flashbacks too. All good ones.

He is 1993 Phillies Mitch Williams vibes now. He could wipe out the side with filth and V, or he could blow the entire game for TEX in spectacular fashion.

Yes. In business, I live by this stolen mantra: "In business, you don't get what you deserve, you get what you negotiate". In this case these rules are all CBA determined via those negotiations correct?

Which Mad Max will TEX get is a question.

If we get anything near a combined WAR of 4.8 again from Bo and Vlad, paper tiger is a good descriptor.

Thats one question. Others are: - He probably wants a good chance to win. Does he believe in this team and FO? - Does he want to play LF (if Springer stays RF) on turf? With Vlad and Varsho being in his positions. - Is the risk of an overpay that it will likely take to get him worth it, given some of his hopeless seasons? - Do you make Vlad the DH - put Belly at 1B, Varsho to CF and pick up an impact bat but not overly expensive LF'er?

Could watch and listen to that 10,000 times. We didn’t win the World Series in 15 or 16 but those electric moments of this, Edwin’s wildcard walk off and JD’s dash home to beat Texas are eternally etched in the psyche of most Jays fans.

The core was all there in '16. Below is an article on the moves in 2016. They '16 deadline was not major deals but good pieces. Its a stretch to give Atkins too much credit or blame for 2016 even though he was hired Dec 3 2015. If 2016 sucked I doubt anyone who is a big fan of this FO would be giving him any blame for it. They would be distancing from it, saying it was an AA season and he was a one hit 2015 wonder here. https://jaysjournal.com/2019/08/08/ross-atkins-2016-year-in-review/ Mixed bag mostly good stuff. I forgot Harold Ramirez left us in the original Liriano deal. Then in one of the best Jays deals ever they flipped him for Teo July 2017.

Yes he was so good that even though we saw under performance this season from Vlad, Kirk, Chappy and Springer we did not need to add lumber at the deadline. Who needs a bat for lefties et al when you have an undeniable masher like Espy - 2022 ALL STAR around.

I realize that. I'm just saying in if anyone deserves an arb raise its Tucker. "deserves' doesn't mean that much.

I have no issue with the layoff. There are so many net advantages for teams that miss the wildcard like more time to rest and heal up injuries. They avoid the loss potential in the series and they avoid the IL risk of playing a wild card series and getting hurt in the 2-3 games. They get time to set their entire pitching staff up etc. Before they make any changes they need a good sample size to review the impacts of long layoff for top teams to see if there is any real correlation to performance Division Series results. I suspect its pretty....dun dun dun..."random" over a large sample size. This year the layoff didn't seem to hurt Houston a bit, as an example. Maybe they find a way to keep a timing edge during the layoff. If so, other teams onus on them to figure it out.

I loathe the term haters for Varsho. I love the player so far. Persona and tools. But I need him to be as effective on D in CF for a full season, and we need him to be at least a league average bat. I can both appreciate and value Varsho as a player on the Jays, while at the same time having the view it was big overpay. If we had a redo, which we obviously never get, there is no way I would make that deal. Time may prove me wrong. I'd be happy with that too.

I agree with this and feel the same. I have to flip the script and hope good things for 2024. I don't feel overly optimistic at all but hope that changes. Some huge decisions are in the windshield for this team, not that they are the only team in this same boat. This team could take off or it could become 17-18-19 ish again. I don't ever want to get so jaded I want the Jays to f*** up to get a FO canned. I have been close to feeling that way on Atkins since his presser. Had to let that go. You can spin this FO record is ultimately done a bad or good job, but the reality is its mixed and grey - no black and white determination is really possible. Its in the eye of the fan. Start with a relatively clean slate for '24 and look ahead.

Tucker WAR last 3 seasons. Its hard for a player to be any more consistently productive at a high level. His arb raise is justified. Vlad's - not so much: 2021: 4.7 2022: 4.8 2023: 4.9 Career 132 wRC+

HOU won last year and they were the best team. They hit well this year with layoff before their division series. There will always be anomalous results especially in short 3 and 5 game playoffs. So no it does not. In some ways it makes it more exciting for fans.

I want my apology! (that was a whole Seinfeld episode classic)

Yep. And Paul Molitor #HOF won it for the '93 world series with the Jays. 4-7 games almost anyone can get hot. The list back to '97 is interesting: 2022: Jeremy Peña (Shortstop - Houston Astros) 2021: Jorge Soler (Outfielder, designated hitter - Atlanta Braves) 2020: Corey Seager (Shortstop - Los Angeles Dodgers) 2019: Stephen Strasburg (Pitcher - Washington Nationals) 2018: Steve Pearce (First baseman - Boston Red Sox) 2017: George Springer (Outfielder - Houston Astros) 2016: Ben Zobrist (Second baseman/Outfielder - Chicago Cubs) 2015: Salvador Pérez (Catcher - Kansas City Royals) 2014: Madison Bumgarner (Pitcher - San Francisco Giants) 2013: David Ortiz (Designated hitter - Boston Red Sox) 2012: Pablo Sandoval (Third baseman - San Francisco Giants) 2011: David Freese (Third baseman - St. Louis Cardinals) 2010: Edgar Rentería (Shortstop - San Francisco Giants) 2009: Hideki Matsui (Designated hitter - New York Yankees) 2008: Cole Hamels (Pitcher - Philadelphia Phillies) 2007: Mike Lowell (Third baseman - Boston Red Sox) 2006: David Eckstein (Shortstop - St. Louis Cardinals) 2005: Jermaine Dye (Outfielder - Chicago White Sox) 2004: Manny Ramirez (Outfielder - Boston Red Sox) 2003: Josh Beckett (Pitcher - Florida Marlins) 2002: Troy Glaus (Third baseman - Anaheim Angels) 2001: Curt Schilling (Pitcher - Arizona Diamondbacks) 2001: Randy Johnson (Pitcher - Arizona Diamondbacks) 2000: Derek Jeter (Shortstop - New York Yankees) 1999: Mariano Rivera (Pitcher - New York Yankees) 1998: Scott Brosius (Third baseman - New York Yankees) 1997: Livan Hernandez (Pitcher - Florida Marlins)

Seeing the videos today of Arcia and Acuna Jr from their dugout interacting with the Phillies fans motioning for them to be quiet and gesturing back at them, shows just how in their heads the fans got. The worst thing the players could do is acknowledge to those fans that they were getting to them. Its like blood in the water for a shark. Especially in Philly.

Brutal year and now more for him. Only 67 IP for him in '23. Big blow to MIL.