TwistedLogic

Game #68 Toronto Blue Jays (Ray) @ Baltimore Orioles (Eshelman) Schedule | Standings | FanGraphs | News | Video | Spotlight | Twitter | Reddit | Instagram 

This might actually be the most pitiful thing I've ever seen a manager say, lmao.

Most hilarious stat of the season: Jacob deGrom has had the same number of MRIs this season (4) as earned runs.

Prospects will break your heart. Happens all too often that a team thinks they're set at a position and makes a trade they regret down the road. Jays thought they had their catching of the future locked down with Arencibia, d'Arnaud, etc and threw away Yan Gomes, who wound up with more career WAR than all of them.

Looks like Vlad's MVP chances are actually pretty low if things stay the same. The headline of this article tries to play into the drama of how close of a race it is but literally every MLB writer in this column is picking Ohtani, including the worthless Jays beat writer. https://www.mlb.com/news/al-mvp-roundtable-vladimir-guerrero-jr-vs-shohei-ohtani

Just permaban him. Contributes nothing.

I f***ing hate the Blue Jays. Let's go Blue Jays.

Game #67 New York Yankees (King) @ Toronto Blue Jays (Zeuch) Schedule | Standings | FanGraphs | News | Video | Spotlight | Twitter | Reddit | Instagram 

TLDR: Can the Blue Jays still realistically make the post season? Yes. Absolutely. They have the 6th easiest schedule remaining in the league and currently hold a 32.0% chance of making the playoffs (both points according to FanGraphs). But they have to stop losing games now. 46% of their remaining games (44/95) are against teams that suck. That's the good news. The bad news is that they also need to begin winning at a respectable clip against opponents of comparable skill level to themselves. Final note: All of the above analysis was done for the schedule beginning after tomorrow's Yankees game. The Jays could still lose that game (and I expect them to, with Zeuch on the mound) and follow the above scenarios to get to 90 wins. Winning tomorrow would give them a one-game head start on the rest of the schedule.

Prelude The Blue Jays look like f***ing garbage. It's not fun to watch. It's practically miserable. However... Let's take a step back for a minute from the emotions of all of these horrific games to look at the big picture for a second. I took a deep dive into the Jays remaining schedule and ranked their remaining opponents into some fairly arbitrary buckets using current win-loss records (actual win percentage), and then I did it all over again using each team's expected record (based on run differential). The "strength" buckets where each remaining Blue Jays opponent falls into are as follows: - "Elite" | Teams in that .570 win-rate range and higher. These teams already look like they're serious contenders for division titles. - "Contenders" | Teams under the top tier all the way down to teams around 5 games under .500. This is the bulk of the wild card race. - "Bad" | Teams more than 5 games below .500. These guys are quickly watching their post-season hopes fade away. - "Trash" | Teams at a win rate of .420 or below (>10 games under .500). These teams are already thinking about next year's #1 draft pick. On with the breakdown. Remaining Opponents Ranked By Actual Win-Rate 36 games remaining against elite teams: 12x Rays, 10x Red Sox, 4x White Sox, 4x Indians, 3x Athletics, 3x Mets 19 games remaining against contenders: 7x Yankees, 6x Mariners, 4x Angels, 2x Nationals 11 games remaining against bad teams (sub .460 win-rate): 6x Tigers, 3x Royals, 2x Marlins 29 games remaining against garbage teams (sub .420 win-rate): 19x Orioles, 7x Twins, 3x Rangers Remaining Schedule Ranked By Expected Win-Rate (Pythag) 16 games remaining against elite teams: 12x Rays, 4x White Sox 35 games remaining against contenders: 10x Red Sox, 7x Yankees, 4x Indians, 4x Angels, 3x Mets, 3x Athletics, 2x Marlins, 2x Nationals 19 games against bad teams (sub .460 expected win-rate): 7x Twins, 6x Mariners, 3x Royals, 3x Rangers 25 games against trash teams (sub .420 expected win-rate): 19x Orioles, 6x Tigers Analysis: For those that trust actual record over expected record, the Blue Jays have - 55 games remaining against mediocre to great teams. - 40 games remaining against bad to abysmal teams. This means 42% of the remaining schedule is against teams that suck. For those that trust expected record over actual record, the Blue Jays have - 51 games remaining against mediocre to great teams. - 44 games remaining against bad to abysmal teams. This means 46% of the remaining schedule is against teams that suck. Based on actual record, the Blue Jays currently fall into that fringe contender bucket with a .500 win-rate, at 33-33. Conversely, looking at run differentials and expected win-rate, the Blue Jays look like a borderline elite team with a .576 expected win-rate and a 38-28 expected record. Now, we know why the Jays aren't close to their pythag record and that's because they have a bad manager and a terrible bullpen, resulting in an abysmal record in close games. The remaining schedule does give the Blue Jays some breathing room throughout the remainder of the season but they absolutely have to start playing to the level that their expected record indicates. This means they can lose a few games to the truly elite teams (Rays and White Sox) but must begin outplaying the other teams in their bucket. Furthermore, they have to dominate the bad teams. Unfortunately, they've likely already lost too many close games to be serious contenders for a division title, barring a horrific collapse by the Rays. Their most realistic hope is to grab a wild card spot. While you'll likely need 93-94 wins to have a somewhat safe chance to get into the playoffs, let's just look at 90 wins as a target for now. This is one potential path they can take to get to 90 wins: - 07-09 for a .438 win rate against the elites (Rays, White Sox) - 20-15 for a .571 win rate against teams in their tier (Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mets, A's, Marlins, Nationals) - 12-07 for a .652 win rate against bad teams that aren't contending (Twins, Mariners, Royals, Rangers) - 18-07 for a .720 win rate against s*** teams that look like the worst in the league (Orioles, Tigers) Unless the Blue Jays choke away games to the bad teams or somehow come out and dominate the Rays in their remaining matchups, their season will be made or broken based on what they do in that second tier. It consists of the highest number of games remaining and also includes all the teams fighting for their spot in the postseason.

Panik had two hard hit balls today and two flyouts. Espinal's never faced Chapman.

10 hard hit balls for the Blue Jays, 5 for Yankees. 2-3 score. Par for the course.

Great update but might be the ugliest tweet I've ever seen.

Lol this is the universe's way of forcing this front office's hand at doing something about the pen.

Yup, the starting pitchers always s*** the bed in their last inning. Half the time it feels like they're pulled too early, half the time it seems they're left in too long. Montoyo can't even do anything about it because the entire pen f***ing blows.

What else is he supposed to do when he's getting squeezed?

TIL Vladdy has kids, what the f*** lmao.

Buck mentions Cole has a single strikeout all day and Cole gets two more strikeouts immediately after. This is the most f***ing cursed announce booth in the history of the world. The universe hates them.

Stripling pissed. "He's jogging!"

Go f*** yourself, Joe Panik. Worthless piece of s***.

lol ew what the f*** is that Rochester park?

Eat s***, Yankees fans. And eat s***, Gerrit.

f*** the Blue Jays. Let's go Blue Jays.

Game #66 New York Yankees (Cole) @ Toronto Blue Jays (Stripling) Schedule | Standings | FanGraphs | News | Video | Spotlight | Twitter | Reddit | Instagram