TwistedLogic

The Jays offered Gausman $40M over three years last offseason. They offered Ray $8M over one year. It's pretty clear they've liked Gausman more as a pitcher for a long time and maybe their internal projections still like Gausman more.

Yup, that's what's being projected. And several reporters have said the Mets aren't done yet.

I used to be an MLBTR addict in like 2011-2012 but it became largely useless to me when I became active on Reddit. Pretty much everything that shows up on MLBTR shows up here on reddit first: https://old.reddit.com/r/baseball/new/

David Phelps back on a minor league deal. This is a small W for sure.

I still can't believe this deal happened at this price point. That has to instantly become the best deal for a pitcher in the MLB, no?

I honestly thought it would be quite a bit more than that (I'm still expecting it to come in higher) but that's what MLBTR is estimating.

Current Blue Jays projected payroll for 2022 after the Gausman and Garcia signings. This is pending the actual breakdown for Gausman, I'm just assuming 22M for 2022 for now. Possible it's backloaded and they have more to work with right now. Dark tiles are guaranteed salaries. Light tiles are either league min guys or MLBTR arbitration estimates. League min is probably gonna be under 800K but I've rounded up for now. There are also at least $6M in signing bonuses (Berrios 5M, Garcia 1M). I've marked that down on the sheet but haven't included it in the total since that money is already spent.

8.5M AAV for Loup. 8.0M AAV for Graveman. 8.5M AAV for Neris. 5.5M AAV for Garcia. Meh. I'd prefer they had just spent the extra few mils and went after one of the top-flight free agents with an actual track record. I'm not gonna be mad about this if they believe they see something in Garcia but it's hard to imagine that a guy who's been practically replacement level for seven seasons and was charged with 9 losses in 2021 (which sounds like he imploded a bunch in high leverage situations) is worth $5.5M a year in this market.

This kid is such a clown.

Marte was my #2 free agent option behind Correa this year but $78M/4 is steep and could look bad down the line. And the Mets signing him probably means he's gonna begin his decline tomorrow.

Yeah, I bought a bunch of stuff with my jerseys. Thinking of placing a second order.

Not sure if anyone is looking for a Leafs jersey but there's a wild doorcrasher deal at SVP Sports right now. $250 authentics for Matthews, Marner and Tavares marked down to $89.99 and then another 20% off in the cart. Comes out to $81.35 total after taxes. Picked up both Matthews and Tavares. https://www.svpsports.ca/collections/door-crashers-adidas-leafs-jerseys

I hadn't even heard of Hernandez but his numbers and scouting report are drool-worthy for a 21-year-old in AA. Also, it's totally not confusing that there are three minor leaguers named Adrian Hernandez born in 2000, 2001 and 2002. Sorry bruh, I got those writeups from Reddit. I wish I could justify a BA sub but they charge too much for how much I'd use it. Probably gonna sub for the first time around the draft next year though.

10 MLB Pitching Prospects With Intriguing Analytical Profiles https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/10-mlb-pitching-prospects-with-intriguing-analytical-profiles/ Adrian Hernandez, RHP, Toronto Why He Stands Out: Hernandez’s changeup is among the most elite in the minors, owing to a few characteristics. First, he generates a tremendous amount of armside run, with an average of greater than 17 inches of horizontal break arm-side. Secondly, he does a tremendous job of killing lift, or creating tumble to go with his elite fading action. Finally, his changeup averages 10 mph of velocity separation from his four-seam fastball. The pitch has similar qualities to Devin Williams now-famous airbender, and Hernandez’s version produces raw spin rates in the 2,200-2,300 rpm range. Hernandez’s fastball averages roughly 18 inches of ride, which helps counteract its below-average velocity and raw spin rates. Because his changeup fades significantly one way and his fastball runs the opposite way, hitters struggle to differentiate the two pitches. Due to the spin efficiency and clean axis upon which it spins, Hernandez’s 12-6 curveball generates an above-average amount of depth, which allows the pitch to play off both his fastball and elite changeup. Takeaway: Hernandez, 21, is a name to know. With 10 appearances at Double-A under his belt, Hernandez has the pitch mix to find his way into the Toronto pen within the next 18 months as a reliever who could work multiple innings per outing. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Toronto Why He Stands Out: Prior to his elbow injury last spring, Hoglund boasted some of the best four-seam spin and shape in the 2021 draft class. On average, Hoglund was spinning fastballs at 2600+ rpms, on a near perfect 1:00 axis and generating on average 20+ inches of induced vertical break. He pairs his fastball with a sweepy slider that consistently averaged nearly 2,800 rpms of spin. His nearly 14 inches of sweep on average with slight drop give the pitch two-plane break. Against college competition, the slider generated a 51% whiff rate. Time will tell how quickly Hoglund’s feel for spin returns or if it returns at all. The player we saw last spring had the stuff to vault himself into the top 10 of the 2021 draft class had he not succumbed to injury. Takeaway: Hoglund pairs high-spin stuff with innate command and control of his arsenal. If Hoglund can return to form and make gains in the way of velocity on both his fastball and slider, he has the chance to possess two plus or better pitches by the time he's MLB ready.

If Orelvis Martinez is considered the "2021 Gabriel Moreno" of 2022, Manuel Beltre is my "2021 Orelvis Martinez" of 2022.

Of course not. It's the Rays. The contract is 182/11. 25M club option on 12th year. $3M bonuses for every Top 5 MVP finish starting in 2028.

How do the Rays find so many good, dumb players?