TwistedLogic

I read this yesterday but I have no idea how Baseball America of all outlets could give a Blue Jays minor leaguer of the year award and not give that to Moreno. He went from off their list to like #8 in the MLB on their Top 100.

I guess Manuel Beltre is still too young to get a stint in the AFL? Would have been nice to see more of him. Could be a huge riser for the Jays in the next couple of years like Moreno and Martinez.

Revisiting my ******** fantasy offseason plan with those numbers plugged in bumps the payroll up by $65M. That plan involves trading Cavan Biggio, Nate Pearson, Orelvis Martinez and Otto Lopez for Jose Ramirez and Emmanual Clase (I don't actually think the Indians would realistically include Clase in this deal but it's fun to dream), signing Scherzer to 28Mx3, signing Marte to 18Mx3 and signing Syndergaard to 20Mx1. I also bring back Kirby Yates and dump Grichuk. I've filled the rest of the roster out with Groshans at 2B and Taylor (PR) and Capra (PH) from the Fisher Cats on the bench, but in any real-world scenario where this roster could actually be assembled, those positions would be determined in Spring Training. The payroll comes in at 180M and the roster looks like this:

I've plugged in the MLBTR arbitration projections, league min salaries and the guaranteed contracts for next year and I've filled the roster out with in-house placeholders for the time being. The Blue Jays roster for 2022 is currently projected at $114.3M.

MLBTR released their arbitration projections! No idea how they see Vladdy getting such a small amount but hell, I'll take it. Blue Jays (12) Ross Stripling – $4.4MM Jose Berrios – $10.9MM Jacob Barnes – $1.2MM Teoscar Hernandez – $10.0MM Adam Cimber – $1.5MM Trevor Richards – $1.1MM Ryan Borucki – $800K Danny Jansen – $1.5MM Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – $7.9MM Tim Mayza – $1.2MM Trent Thornton – $900K Cavan Biggio – $1.7MM

Like John said, it's impossible to predict based on the looming CBA negotiations. As it stands, the Jays have about $65M tied up in guaranteed contracts (Springer, Ryu, Gurriel and Grichuk) and probably project around 120-125M after arb raises and league min deals. If they can dump Grichuk, they could easily add $50-70M and still be well clear of the luxury tax threshold as it was in 2021.

Like I mentioned a few pages back, 3B is probably the most solvable position there is in the current market. Lots of reasonably priced options like Kris Bryant, Chris Taylor and Josh Donaldson, and some potentially huge moves if they become available, like a possible Nolan Arenado opt out or a trade for Jose Ramirez.

Marte is 33 years old. I think you guys are overestimating how much he makes given how much competition exists on the market this year. That said, I'd easily go to 25M AAV on Marte on a short term deal (3 years). He's one of the few elite, available bats that fits a Blue Jays need and is also a huge defensive upgrade.

Would people here trade Alejandro Kirk straight up for Emmanuel Clase?

I didn't pay any attention to bench and depth starters for this exercise just so it didn't get too exhaustive but there are a ton of excellent depth starters on the market that would cost peanuts.

Here's a sample roster I came up with after a big offseason for the Blue Jays: Trade Cavan Biggio, Orelvis Martinez, Nate Pearson and a low minors lottery ticket to Cleveland for Jose Ramirez. Sign Max Scherzer for $90M over 3 years. Sign Starling Marte for $54M over 3 years. Sign Noah Syndergaard for $20M over 1 year. Re-sign Kirby Yates for $3M over 1 year. Dump Randal Grichuk on anyone who will take him and give up a decent mid-minors piece in the deal if that's what it takes. I used Jordan Groshans as a placeholder 2B. This can be Otto Lopez, Samad Taylor, whoever rises in Spring Training. I tuned back some of the arb estimates (Vladdy at 13M, Teoscar at 9M and Stripling at 4M). I still think I'm overshooting a bit and they can probably get the overall arb crop in for less than I've allocated. Rationale: Jose Ramirez is a perennial MVP candidate on a very low price tag and a trade for him is self-explanatory. I lose my starting 2B in this scenario but the Blue Jays have a ton of infield depth with Samad Taylor, Otto Lopez and maybe even Gabriel Moreno, all of whom have experience at AA and can win a starting roster spot right out of spring training. With the lineup I've assembled above, the Blue Jays have an All-Star caliber player at every single other position in the lineup and could even afford to go to a defense-first option here. Max Scherzer is one of the few players I would take a high-priced gamble on even at such a late stage in his career. The pedigree is there and so is the recent performance. Noah Syndergaard will likely have a competitive market but I think around $20M for a one-year "prove it" contract like the Semien deal can work here. Starling Marte is going to be the most underrated position player on the market. This is a massive defensive upgrade for a team that needs one and he also happens to be an elite position player throughout his career with a massive run over the last four years. This move makes sense for a number of reasons: Marte is 32 years old so it won't require a long-term deal, he was traded mid-season so he won't have a QO, the team he's currently playing for is cheap and can't afford him and the Blue Jays have one of the most popular clubhouses in the league among Latin players. Furthermore, this move pushes Springer to one of the wings and outfield is a position of need for the Blue Jays, where they have no minor league depth. While the market wrestles over Castellanos, Conforto and Schwarber, the Blue Jays need to swoop in and lock this up as soon as possible. Signing Marte and retaining Gurriel also gives me four potentially premium offensive outfielders on the team. This means I can afford an injury to one of my top guys and still have all three OF spots covered, while I can rotate the fourth guy through the DH or 1B spot when everyone is healthy. I think Gurriel showed some improved instincts on flyball reads and he has one of the best arms in the major leagues so I'm going with Teoscar at DH to start off the season. I want to re-sign Kirby Yates for a 3M deal that I'm hoping he signs out of good faith after giving me nothing in 2021. If he can be anywhere near the guy he's usually been, this is a potential x-factor out of the bullpen. I start the season with Romano as the closer and a core of Merryweather, Mayza, Cimber, Richards and Borucki is exceptional. I keep Stripling on board as the long-man and the guy who can come in as a long-term spot starter if one of the other arms goes down for an extended period of time. While the salary is high, I am of the firm belief that my roster above has no holes anywhere, would be a heavy World Series favorite heading into the season and would be in contention for the greatest offense in baseball history. I've also kept all of the high-cost contracts on short terms so as the young core becomes more expensive, large chunks of the tied-up money are freed up each year. If I can find a way to dump Ryu this offseason, I take that chance immediately and find a stopgap cheap SP option in his place, since the market is loaded with arms.

I purposely overshot my projections to give ample room but there is no way Vladdy won't break the record. I think he'll come in at like 12M. Arb is based on traditional counting stats, not advanced stats. Vladdy was king of t-stats this year.

Aging/potential to decline is irrelevant on one-year deals. And when it comes to Scherzer, I can't see him becoming a pumpkin within the next 2-3 years given how good he still is, but that's a risk you can take on a player like him. The question I posed about those three starters was purely hypothetical and in actuality, I only want them to pursue Scherzer and Syndergaard. And yes, the Blue Jays could easily afford two frontline starters from the FA crop and still have plenty left over to fill out the rest of the roster. This team has very few holes and the current roster as it stands (if you can get rid of Grichuk) is only projected to be at around $115M based on my very rough arbitration estimates.

Nah, you can easily run a 6-man rotation and keep all three of Manoah, Ryu and Berrios in the rotation. In fact, I'd give Manoah the ball on opening day to give him that show of support for what he did this past year. Given the injury concerns, Manoah's lack of experience in a full season and Ryu wearing down by the end of the 2021 season, a 6-man rotation would be a really good idea in 2022 to get everyone back to their innings thresholds. If you really want to go with a 5-man rotation, I'd just try to offload Ryu in a trade or maybe stretch him out as a long man until one of Syndergaard or Verlander go down with an injury. I don't like the idea of making moves or not making moves around Hyun-Jin Ryu. Guy could easily be in late-career Mark Buehrle territory at this point and you don't give up on a chance to significantly improve your team just because he's around. He's still a great 5th starter, but if an opportunity to bolster the rotation comes at his expense, you find a way to make it work.

If you can get: Scherzer for 3 years x 30M Syndergaard for 1 year x 25M Verlander for 1 year x 20M And the only way to get it done is to sign all three of those deals (ie: the guys want to pitch together), do you do it? I say yes in a heartbeat but I see a lot of reasons why people could have an aversion to it (lots of uncertainty, age, injury concerns, blocking young pitchers, etc). Curious what others think.

lol, well Chris Taylor probably just upped his price tag with one home run.

Manager: Fire Charlie Montoyo. Bring back John Gibbons or promote John Schneider. Offer Montoyo the bench coach role, which he will likely decline. OF: Get rid of Grichuk. Sign Kyle Schwarber for 15M AAV or Nick Castellanos for 20M AAV. Move Teoscar Hernandez to DH or rotate the four OFs through DH/1B. 3B: Option 1 - Trade for Jose Ramirez if he's available, using a package around Biggio and Martinez. Option 2 - Sign Nolan Arenado if he opts out. Option 3 - Sign Kris Bryant. Option 4 - Trade spare parts for Josh Donaldson. Keep Espinal as the starting 3B whenever Donaldson is injured. Even if Donaldson goes down long term, the position can be used to eventually try out Martinez or Moreno or patched with a midseason trade. Option 5 - Sign Chris Taylor. SP: Sign Maxwell Scherzer for 96M over 3 years. Sign Noah Syndergaad for 25M over 1 year. Move Pearson back to the rotation. With Scherzer being old as s***, Manoah in his first full season, Ryu showing fatigue and Syndergaard and Pearson having injury concerns, a 6 man rotation can be good for everyone here. RP: Re-sign Kirby Yates on a cheap one year deal. Try to sign Kenley Jansen, fail, then make a play for Aaron Loup. Lineup: 1 | CF: George Springer 2 | 1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3 | SS: Bo Bichette 4 | RF: Nick Castellanos 5 | DH: Teoscar Hernandez 6 | 3B: Josh Donaldson 7 | LF: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 8 | C: Alejandro Kirk 9 | 2B: Cavan Biggio Rotation: 1 | Max Scherzer 2 | Alek Manoah 3 | Jose Berrios 4 | Noah Syndergaard 5 | Hyun-Jin Ryu 6 | Nate Pearson Bullpen: 1 | Jordan Romano 2 | Aaron Loup 3 | Kirby Yates 4 | Julian Merryweather 5 | Tim Mayza 6 | Trevor Richards 7 | Adam Cimber Bench: B1 | C | Danny Jansen B2 | IF | Santiago Espinal B3/B4 | Smith, Palacios, Valera, Capra, etc.

I am commenting here while on vacation to reverse the Blue Jays fortunes and give them good vibes.

Leaving on a two week vacation. Won't be able to make GDTs for a while.

Two losses burned. 11-6. Three losses burned. 10-5. Four losses burned. 8-4. Five losses burned. 7-3. Six losses burned. 7-2.

Merryweather has been trash since being back.

Way to earn your spot, Hatch.

I mean, if that had to happen, I'd much rather it have been the other way around.

Why is Fernando Rodney wearing a jersey that says Pineda on it.

Semien on Toronto: