I mean at this point, the only way to settle the argument would be a rigorous statistical analysis but yeah I think even if you limit the sample to contracts that look good in the first two years, most contracts en up looking bad by the end because of things like sudden decline, injury, etc. Bautista is a weird scenario though because his contract is really, really small for a 5 year contract. Usually those are like 20 millions per which makes the odds of surplus value much lower. That's an outlier contract.