jays4life19

The fact that we didn't make an official offer is being blown out of proportion. The agents/Gibby confirmed there was constant communication. If we knew he was not going to accept our s***** 3 year offer and we were waiting for the price to go down or whatever AA thinking was. What's the point of submitting an offer?

lol @ "one of the worst GM's EVER"

Doesn't hurt to try. We were in last place and it's much easier to find a 3rd basemen then a 2nd basemen. Ryan Goins projected to be our 2014 2nd basemen is proof of that.

What can i say? I'm kinda big deal when it comes to FAP contests.

I voted Garza because i have no idea what his medicals look like. He's the best pitcher out of the group.

Speaking of people who use words like "sure thing" but have no credibility. We have our very own DJ Blueray and he's back with his "lock" picks. http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=1&nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=93272

It's on the MLB network right now. "top 10 left fielders" It's hilarious.

Eric Byrnes i believe.

Speaking of sports writers opinions. I was watching MLB network and this one analyst who called himself a "SABR" kinda guy was arguing that you can't consider Choo a "great" left fielder because he was lacking in the RBI stat line. It was pretty hilarious.

Alright. Just so I'm clear. Your opinion is that projection systems are useless. Sports writers/analysts opinions are useless. Just how were you able to so accurately predict the Red Sox coming first and the Jays being terrible "on the other site?" Also, what's your logic in thinking that the Jays are a " no brainier" to win less then 77.5 games. Also since you have the benefit of having watched the 2013 season when answering those questions. Why don't you tell me some more "no brainers" for the 2014 season since you seem to know it all.

Classic examples of hindsight bias in this thread. Whenever vegas comes out with a line it's designed to get 50% of the public to bet one side and 50% of the public to bet the other. They charge a 10% commission on the bet so no matter who wins the bookkeeper takes home 10%. If you ever see a handicapper or projection system for that matter say a pick or projection is a "no brainier" " lock" "sure thing" you know they have no credibility because there is no such thing. The worlds best handicapper or projection systems use mathematical formula's to gain a slight edge over the general public. It will never be perfect because of the variance that exists in sport outcomes. Statistics have no personal bias at the end of the day.

lol pretty easy to say after the season. So, Moogy - who are the no brainers for the 2014 season? Also, if you picked every steamers projection for last year with the Vegas odds you would have made money. I don't know how that can be "horrid"

I see your point but strongly disagree. If you were smart enough to use Steamers as a guideline to bet the over/under on the Vegas odds you're going to be profitable. Obviously in hindsight there are alot of misses. Please let me know if you or your wife predicted the Jays to come in last or the Red Sox to come in first? Projection systems can't count for injuries, dramatic drop offs ( Pujols, Hamilton ect) but neither can you or your wife. this is a portion of an article that one of my favorite sports handicapper wrote. Juice, and the power of 55% "Even though most sports bettors are losers in their own right (as a whole, bettors actually win an average of only 48% of their bets - less than they would expect to win if they just flipped a coin for every game), their losses are compounded by the fact that the house takes a cut of winnings, also known as the 'juice' or 'vig.' Most sports books charge a 10% commission on wins, which means that a bettor must actually win 52.4% of his games just to break even. (Wagering $100 per game, a bettor loses $100 with a loss and wins $90.91 with a win, so he must go 11-10 (11/21 = 52.38%) to break even). Recently, some online books have started to offer lower juice, betting exchanges and deposit bonuses, which reduce the house edge. In order to beat the juice and win in sports betting, a bettor must employ a disciplined approach in their analysis of each game using methods that have proven to be successful in the long run. I discuss my math models and analytical metrics in my Handicapping Methods essay, but you must realize that only the best and most knowledgeable handicappers can win more than 52.4% of their games. In their 2007 two page article about my handicapping success, the Wall Street Journal wrote, "...fewer than 100 people can sustain (win rates of 55%) over time. Most of them belong to professional betting syndicates that hire teams of statisticians, wager millions every week and keep their operations secret." Even fewer bettors can hit 55-56% Touts often claim to be able to hit 60% or higher, but as I explain in my essay on Bayesian Probability, anyone who tells you that their long term expected winning percentage is higher than 60% is deluding themselves. For a bettor to claim a greater than 60% long term expected win percentage, that would be mean that Vegas would have to consistently release lines with egregious errors, and that simply just does not happen often enough for claims of greater than 60% long term expected win percentages to be caused anything other than blind, short-term luck." - Dr Bob Steamers does hit at around a 55% percent clip. For the average joe that might not seem very impressive but for someone who bets on sports it's quite profitable. If you want to try and beat the over/under with the Vegas odds vs Steamers projections see how you do?

Heh. Adam Lind in Left Field. Good times. (not)

AA really did an incredible job early in his tenure. He turned a god awful farm into a top system in literally no time. Got rid of some terrible contracts. Turned players like Alex Gonzales into assets. Creatively acquired draft picks ( Olivo). He had a nice young core and a top farm and things were looking better then we could have ever hoped in the time frame he took over. It just went down hill since the JA Happ trade. Down hill might be an understatement. Crash and burn since then.

It's a little old. We're probably projected around 84 now. http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/01/02/offseason-power-rankings-jan-2/ Maybe Chris can do an update soon?

81 wins for this team certainly won't be a "miracle". 80-85 is an average projection. Enjoy cheering for us to suck?

Maybe on the over/under part. I always tell my friends if gambling was easy there would be no such thing as gambling. Just don't play proline.... Bet 365, Sports Interaction, Party Bets...lot's of options to play. Just need a charge/credit card.

I went to my 2 sportsbooks that i use and they don't offer over/under win totals for baseball. (sports interaction and party bets) I would have bet the s*** out of the over on the Jays if they did. They had the Jays to win the world series at 19.00 odds. f***ing no thank you. Edit: I love how we can f***ing swear on this board.

And the market gets a little smaller for Ubaldo and Ervin. If we play our cards right we might get one of them on a hell of a deal. Or we might get none at all. ha.

Someone has to be last? Edit: Welcome to the board!

Pretty sure his agent is trying for a four year deal. If this was actually his demands - he would be signed by now.

Yeah. A "smart" and "worldly" pitcher who's Dominican sounds like a target that won't cost Toronto a premium to sign him. Get it done AA.

3 years and 35 to 40 million Ubaldo's current demands? Sign me up.