We still hold the division lead and Fangraphs has us at 75% to win it. The 1-game lead (effectively 2 with the tiebreaker) looks small, but with only 5 games left we’re still in control.
This Yankee team gets treated like it's the 1927 version, but they barely slipped past the White Sox tonight. If Chicago can push them, the Orioles can definitely take a game, or even two with Trevor Rogers pitching. The Yankees have made a strong push, but they’re almost out of time.
Scenarios:
Jays finish 4-1, Yankees can’t catch us
Jays finish 3-2, Yankees must go 5-0
Jays finish 2-3, Yankees must go 4-1
Jays finish 1-4, Yankees must go 3-2
Jays finish 0-5, Yankees must go 2-3
Our slump has made this closer than it should be, but still having a 75% chance shows how far ahead we were.